Trade & FA 2023-24: Booker Likes NYK? Vogel Out? Suns Imploding?

[SleepingHero]

The Josh Green comparison is fairly accurate on the offensive end of the court, but Caruso is an elite perimeter defender.  He is in a different league than Green on that end of the court.

Right but how is that valued contract wise? Is that defensive production alone enough to push him from 10-15 a year to 20+?

I don't really see that. I can see him being offered a 4 year 60 extension that was mentioned. I can also see in FA a team throwing 3/60 at him too. But anything more than that for a guy who really is just a great defensive player is risky as heck with these new punitive rules for teams above the cap.

[mvossman]

Right but how is that valued contract wise? Is that defensive production alone enough to push him from 10-15 a year to 20+?

I don't really see that. I can see him being offered a 4 year 60 extension that was mentioned. I can also see in FA a team throwing 3/60 at him too. But anything more than that for a guy who really is just a great defensive player is risky as heck with these new punitive rules for teams above the cap.

Yeah, my argument was specifically with the Green comparison that suggested they were similar players and should get similar contracts.  Some of Green's contract was due to youth/upside.  3&D guys don't generally get much more than MLE, but Caruso may be a special case given he just made all defense first team.  I don't know how much that will push up his market value, but I agree its very unlikely to be over 20.

[youzigizag]

Small uneducated scouting of Caruso on my part:

Can dribble safely (Mavs dont have dribbler issues anymore)

Can facilitate on offense

Cant shoot reliably

Can be an absolute dog on Defense

Are those qualities(if accurate) enough to surpass Green's 3point shooting and hustle?

Are those qualities enough to surpass Exum?

Factoring cost to acquire and contract cost...is Caruso's game needle moving enough?

I understand he is a better player, but is he worth the cost of business to acquire?

I love Caruso's game...just dont know if it makes sense for us

[KillerLeft]

I suppose it depends on how successful the Mavericks postseason is, and how impactful he is in it, but DJJ has been around a long time. He’s not playing any better this year than he usually does, it’s just that he fits on this team a little bit better and was given more of a chance at a role because the Mavericks were desperate for athletic ability.

My point is that unless he drains like 25 threes in the playoffs, which I find unlikely, I’m not sure the league is going to look at him that much differently than they did this past summer, when he had to wait around till the very end and sign for the minimum.

Moreover, if I were he, I would want desperately to come right back here on whatever 1-year deal I could get so that I could continue in this role that is working for me, and so that Dallas could have my bird rights the following summer.

[loki]

I'm not convinced Caruso gets in the range of 20M as a FA. He has a good bit of Josh Green in him, ie he is a good shooter who can make defensive plays and can make shots, but doesn't shoot often enough, so his scoring is rather anemic (around 11-12 ppg). He's a tick or two more productive than JG.

The extension number limit would not be MLE. It would start at 140% of his current salary, which would land him at about 4 yrs 60M. Again, just a tick or two above JG.

If I had to, I would still do THJ + FRP for him, even without an extension. I'd just prefer to have more than one year in place. But as I see it, there would also be value in replacing THJ's money with a smaller number, in order to have a few million more to offer DJJ.

I was only referring to the first year salary being MLE-sized. Locking up a 4th year through an extension does sweeten the deal, but it still feels to me like he would be taking bottom dollar. Why not wait and at least see if you can get a better offer? Look at Dylan Brooks, Josh Hart, Marcus Smart, Bruce Brown, etc. Even if he has to take a shorter deal for the higher AAV due to being a little older than those guys, it could make sense to wait.

I'll certainly keep my fingers crossed for the extension though if they do manage to trade for him.

---

I suppose it depends on how successful the Mavericks postseason is, and how impactful he is in it, but DJJ has been around a long time. He’s not playing any better this year than he usually does, it’s just that he fits on this team a little bit better and was given more of a chance at a role because the Mavericks were desperate for athletic ability.

My point is that unless he drains like 25 threes in the playoffs, which I find unlikely, I’m not sure the league is going to look at him that much differently than they did this past summer, when he had to wait around till the very end and sign for the minimum.

Moreover, if I were he, I would want desperately to come right back here on whatever 1-year deal I could get so that I could continue in this role that is working for me, and so that Dallas could have my bird rights the following summer.

That's how I see it as well. Someone could always swoop in and steal him, but it feels like the odds of keeping him with the tax MLE are pretty decent.

[myconsumerclub]

Ideas for improving this team next season and going forward. Internal Improvement is the best and does anyone remeber SAN and their core and how long it was together? The longer you keep the same guys together the better it is for chemistry and guys getting to learn each others tendancies.

OMAX and LIVELY should have better seasons ahead of them since they are rookies. Omax with a nice 3 tonight!

I can see Kyrie playing at a high level for many years to come he just seems like the type that can ball forever and sports medicine is making advancements all the time.

Luka is getting to his prime.

PJ is now on a team that can get him open looks so his 3 pointer should improve

Can DJJ experience more of this too? I think his 3 certainly can improve as he stays in the league longer.

Gafford is a monster center along with Lively we are set but injuries happen and Powell and Kleber sort of cannot be trusted with that age and injury past so we need their replacements and out of the options I see, nothing in free agency appeals to me. I would rather avoid overpaying in a trade. That leaves the draft as our only low cost way to add some bigs so it may be possible to grab a pick in whatever trade we make with THJ going out. Perhaps a pick swap. Next draft has a lot of guys to offer us cheap ways to get that size but not all look as appealing to me as Lively did. We have Bostons 2nd rounder last pick in the draft so pretty much a near useless pick for finding anyone that can stick in the league.

Internal improvement is likely to be the way we improve the most. Hardy could grow his game and add even more, Green seems to have improved every year he has been here. The rookies will naturally start to improve as well. PJ and Gafford being here for a whole off season.

Only way I see us making a jump to another level is by adding a big or 2 in the draft and getting lucky in the 2nd round and trying to get 2 of those kinds of picks to double our chances of finding a keeper.

To pick more than one we need to wheel and deal trading for more picks using THJ and whatever other trade assets we can afford to use for that.

We are a win now team and drafting bigs means drafting seniors who already are closer to being ready or do we got lucky with Lively and his youth not being a problem in his rookie season. What he has done early on was special for a rookie big so next season I expect improved performances.

With the last pick of the draft you may have these guys to choose from and there is some potential there.

Zvonimir Ivisic, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jGBUkp7kqE 7'2 maybe 7'3 goes 4 for 4 from 3 in debut with Kentucky half way through the season because of eligibility problems he started the season late. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kmu0LHJtd04
2024 Draft Age: 20.87 https://www.si.com/nba/draft/prospect-pr...projection

Aaron Bradshaw, needs to fill out more g league candidate maybe

Ariel Hukporti,
https://www.tankathon.com/players/ryan-kalkbrenner

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlDIlQc4K1A Luka trick shot needs to be permanently given its own page

[youzigizag]

Played 4 years for league min....was undrafted...just signed a 14M per deal through 2026...

Heard the Timberwolves might be entering squeeze mode with their players...

Is Naz Reid not gettable somehow? An extremely better version of Maxi. Do we have the assets to pry him away assuming he is someone we need fit wise?

I know we are hamstrung on cap and trying to sign DJJ supposedly...but do we have anything the Twolves would want plus assets for a long, cheap center with quick feet and a 3 shot? Even if his next contract goes way up...it wont be devastating money. He seems like a player I would target assuming you could pry him away with your overlapping role players and draft assets.

Or am I way off here?

[RGP1981]

Keon Ellis has been playing great for the Kings and is an excellent defender. Seems like he would fit really well into the rotation next to Luka and Kyrie. It's a pity that the Kings tied him up already and for a steal too, $5M spread over 3 years.

[myconsumerclub]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3t0mPpGMcTo

game matching up Kalkbrenner and Clingan who should go in the lottery. Kalkbrenner is possibly available late in the draft as well

[MAVS-SLO]

Small uneducated scouting of Caruso on my part:

Can dribble safely (Mavs dont have dribbler issues anymore)

Can facilitate on offense

Cant shoot reliably

Can be an absolute dog on Defense

Are those qualities(if accurate) enough to surpass Green's 3point shooting and hustle?

Are those qualities enough to surpass Exum?

Factoring cost to acquire and contract cost...is Caruso's game needle moving enough?

I understand he is a better player, but is he worth the cost of business to acquire?

I love Caruso's game...just dont know if it makes sense for us

The biggest problem with Caruso is his price. The Bulls are without any direction, without a lot of picks and Caruso is basically their biggest asset. They were rumours around TDL that they want multiple FRP for him (2+) which isn't worth it.

If we are going to do business with the Bulls i would do it for Patrick Williams. I think he have all the tools to become a younger version of Jerami Grant here. He is restricted FA this offseason, so will be interesting to see what would Bulls want for SNT. They have some big decisions to make in this offseason (Derozan, Lavine trade...)

In my opinion we should wait a little bit before trading future FRP's. 2025 draft for now looks interesting on 3-4 positions. There are 3-4 high ranked prospects and as we see every draft few of them falls also to the end of 1 round. 

We can't forget that we also have Raptors 2 round pick next season which can easily be in the range of 30-40, so if some player falls a little bit we have some assets to move up on the draft.

In the next 3-4 years we will also have in my mind to have future FRP's prepared to trade when we will need to find replacment for Kyrie, to maximize Luka's era in Dallas.

Looking at this offseason i will call it succesfull if we can just resing DJJ.

I also checked a little bit teams and potential trade targets who could be gettable this offseason without sending a future FRP'S to get them.

East:

Atlanta: No one. Specially after a good strech of Murray.
Boston: No one.
Brooklyn: Cam Johnson maybe. Depends on the price, he is having a really down year.
Charllote: Bridges fills what we need, the problems are off court.
Chicago: Patrick Williams.
Detroit: No one. Grimes looks like Josh Green 2.0 to me.
Miami: No one.
Orlando: No one.
Milwaukee: No one.
NY: No one.
Cleveland: No one.
Indina: No one.
Philadelphia: Maybe Tobias Harris. Depends on the price.
Toronto: No one. 
Washington: No one.

West:

Portland: Grant
Utah: John Collins. But he is not what we need.

Other western teams i didn't search because i don't think they would make a trades with us.

[Mavs2021]

Unless I got the rules wrong (very possible) you only become MLE ineligible over the 2nd apron. I assume the apron that applies is the $183M figure from 2023/2024, which gives us roughly 10M for DJJ and the 2nd round pick. I think that´s absolutely in the right ballpark for DJJ. Maybe you sweeten the deal with an additional year on the contract. But that seems only fair given that at point we are just two weeks removed from winning our 2nd championship. 

[MFFL]

Wrong thread

[youzigizag]

Can someone in the know enlighten me on Josh Green's current flaws that could put him out of favor with the MBT? Without talking about contract. I get that he is locked up for a few season and that is favorable to other teams in trades(usually for super stars not role players).

My casual opinion is his defense isnt as average as some suggest...but I am a casual. I think the plays hard and gets stupid fouls...but he is usually on his man. I have seen some youtube breakdowns from earlier in the season that were looking at Mavs defensive issues...and the breakdowners opinion was Josh was making the right rotations on defense. So, plays hard, has good lateral movement, makes proper rotations, pesky on lose balls...

On offense he can shoot the 3 now, can pass very good, is a high flyer in transition....cant dribble well or create, only can dribble with right hand, not very good at finishing at the rim(but has gotten better)...

What are his major issues that we would want to move on from? Or what skill does he not possess that we need to cash him in for? Just a more reliable 2way player? Seems like his issues are on offense....but do we need him dribbling/creating or scoring a lot? I guess his hustle and 3 shot arent cutting it and we want a more consistent 2 way player that can score at all 3 levels?

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

Can someone in the know enlighten me on Josh Green's current flaws that could put him out of favor with the MBT?  Without talking about contract.  I get that he is locked up for a few season and that is favorable to other teams in trades(usually for super stars not role players).

My casual opinion is his defense isnt as average as some suggest...but I am a casual.  I think the plays hard and gets stupid fouls...but he is usually on his man.  I have seen some youtube breakdowns from earlier in the season that were looking at Mavs defensive issues...and the breakdowners opinion was Josh was making the right rotations on defense.  So, plays hard, has good lateral movement, makes proper rotations, pesky on lose balls...

On offense he can shoot the 3 now, can pass very good, is a high flyer in transition....cant dribble well or create, only can dribble with right hand, not very good at finishing at the rim(but has gotten better)...

What are his major issues that we would want to move on from?  Or what skill does he not possess that we need to cash him in for?  Just a more reliable 2way player?  Seems like his issues are on offense....but do we need him dribbling/creating or scoring a lot?  I guess his hustle and 3 shot arent cutting it and we want a more consistent 2 way player that can score at all 3 levels?

If Josh Green was on another team his name would be Quentin Grimes or Tari Eason and we would be concocting deals to trade Josh Green and a  1st round pick for him. Then Grimes or Eason would arrive here and seeing them on the regular we would invariably notice their various imperfections (some of which overlap almost exactly with Josh Green’s.) Then we would wistfully reminisce and collectively wish we had never traded (the original) Josh Green.

---

Sorry I somehow put my response in the body of your text youzig!

[omahen]

Can someone in the know enlighten me on Josh Green's current flaws that could put him out of favor with the MBT?  Without talking about contract.  I get that he is locked up for a few season and that is favorable to other teams in trades(usually for super stars not role players).

My casual opinion is his defense isnt as average as some suggest...but I am a casual.  I think the plays hard and gets stupid fouls...but he is usually on his man.  I have seen some youtube breakdowns from earlier in the season that were looking at Mavs defensive issues...and the breakdowners opinion was Josh was making the right rotations on defense.  So, plays hard, has good lateral movement, makes proper rotations, pesky on lose balls...

On offense he can shoot the 3 now, can pass very good, is a high flyer in transition....cant dribble well or create, only can dribble with right hand, not very good at finishing at the rim(but has gotten better)...

What are his major issues that we would want to move on from?  Or what skill does he not possess that we need to cash him in for?  Just a more reliable 2way player?  Seems like his issues are on offense....but do we need him dribbling/creating or scoring a lot?  I guess his hustle and 3 shot arent cutting it and we want a more consistent 2 way player that can score at all 3 levels?

Mavs have Luka, Kyrie and one of the centers as a lock in the starting unit. This means they need a big wing guarding best opposing big wing and a point of attack defender. The more those guys can do on offense the better. 

I like Green, but he is obviously not a big wing and he is imho also a not particularly good point of attack defender, especially when navigating screens. I think both Exum and DJJ are better in that role. Green is a better shooter than DJJ, but his low volume doesn't really bring much of an advantage. 

When we are talking about improving Mavs, it is highly unlikely that Luka, Kyrie or center tandem will be touched. Changing a bench role player or two also doesn't really do much for the team. The only real improvement is upgrading one of the starting positions. One of those that are currently occupied by PJ and DJJ. 

Mavs have currently Exum, DJJ, Green, THJ and Hardy all able to play the "small wing" position. Difficult to give minutes to everyone as it is. Hardy is barely playing and in his season three Mavs will have to make a decision to either give him higher minutes or move on. If you bring in another guy on the position and plan to play him as a starter, there will simply not be enough minutes for two of the guys listed. Guys I have least troubles missing are Green and THJ (I am also not attached to Hardy). Green might also have value as some team might see more in him in a different role. Not that I don't like him, but I don't think Mavs would particularly miss him if an upgrade is in question at the position.

[Mavs2021]

Can someone in the know enlighten me on Josh Green's current flaws that could put him out of favor with the MBT?  Without talking about contract.  I get that he is locked up for a few season and that is favorable to other teams in trades(usually for super stars not role players).

My casual opinion is his defense isnt as average as some suggest...but I am a casual.  I think the plays hard and gets stupid fouls...but he is usually on his man.  I have seen some youtube breakdowns from earlier in the season that were looking at Mavs defensive issues...and the breakdowners opinion was Josh was making the right rotations on defense.  So, plays hard, has good lateral movement, makes proper rotations, pesky on lose balls...

On offense he can shoot the 3 now, can pass very good, is a high flyer in transition....cant dribble well or create, only can dribble with right hand, not very good at finishing at the rim(but has gotten better)...

What are his major issues that we would want to move on from?  Or what skill does he not possess that we need to cash him in for?  Just a more reliable 2way player?  Seems like his issues are on offense....but do we need him dribbling/creating or scoring a lot?  I guess his hustle and 3 shot arent cutting it and we want a more consistent 2 way player that can score at all 3 levels?

Well I think Josh Green has Dwight Powell syndrome. His direct opposition simply does not register that he exists in one-on-one possessions. He´s just a comfortable shot. Nevertheless he´s a good team defender and his direct replacement have been really poor in the past, so his +/- always looked good. And Luka makes everybody´s numbers better. That´s Green in a nutshell.

That being said, I won´t judge Green until he´s been with this new team for an extended period of time. Definitely will be happy to have another clutch 3pt shooting option.

Right now I´m clearly on team "run it back". Keep screening the market for a THJ/Powell trade, but that´s about it. Keep DJJ and make the 2nd round pick and you got your 15 team roster for next season. We are a young team now for the most part. There will be internal growth coming.

[omahen]

I do agree that division of minutes can be a bit of a challenge when you have many good role players, but THJ outgoing for Caruso opens up over 2000 minutes (that's how many THJ has played this year), which is a bit larger than Caruso had in CHI. So nothing changes other than the player filling the minutes. I do envision in my Caruso idea that DJJ keeps his same role of defense and rebounding and super-athleticism, and Caruso becomes the 6th man to replace THJ/Hardy and provide offense -- but a much smarter player with some defensive skill. 

As for Paul George, I don't think he is a practical pursuit for the Mavs. I'd like to have him - he's a star, not a role player, albeit one whose ongoing injury limits might create real problems. It sounds like a Mark Cuban type of pursuit, to be honest. But I think it would be a mistake to make that the focus, and the size of his contract is the issue. First, matching 49M takes so much of your team. Second, salary matching rules are prohibitive for teams over Apron 2 (LAC) that make it very hard for a team close to Apron 1 to do a swap with them. And if PG is a FA, they can't SNT him at all.

THJ minutes were drastically reduced after the trade, even with Green missing half of games. With team as it is, I doubt THJ comes anywhere near 2000 minutes. He was playing almost 30 mpg before all star break and that was reduced to some 21 minutes (with Green playing only half of games). Besides, as I said in another answer, Mavs need to imho make a decision about Hardy. Either increase his minutes or move on. 

I think George is in any case a very unlikely option. Not having a SnT option is another big obstacle making it far less likely to happen. Mavs would also get over the second apron. Other than that, THJ, Maxi, Green and Powell would be the salary needed to match his player option. George replaces THJ and Green. We would need to hope OMax can replace Maxi. Powell is a third string center and would be replaced by a vet min guy.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Mavs have Luka, Kyrie and one of the centers as a lock in the starting unit. This means they need a big wing guarding best opposing big wing and a point of attack defender. The more those guys can do on offense the better. 

I like Green, but he is obviously not a big wing and he is imho also a not particularly good point of attack defender, especially when navigating screens. I think both Exum and DJJ are better in that role. Green is a better shooter than DJJ, but his low volume doesn't really bring much of an advantage. 

When we are talking about improving Mavs, it is highly unlikely that Luka, Kyrie or center tandem will be touched. Changing a bench role player or two also doesn't really do much for the team. The only real improvement is upgrading one of the starting positions. One of those that are currently occupied by PJ and DJJ. 

Mavs have currently Exum, DJJ, Green, THJ and Hardy all able to play the "small wing" position. Difficult to give minutes to everyone as it is. Hardy is barely playing and in his season three Mavs will have to make a decision to either give him higher minutes or move on. If you bring in another guy on the position and plan to play him as a starter, there will simply not be enough minutes for two of the guys listed. Guys I have least troubles missing are Green and THJ (I am also not attached to Hardy). Green might also have value as some team might see more in him in a different role. Not that I don't like him, but I don't think Mavs would particularly miss him if an upgrade is in question at the position.

Great post.

Yes, C rotation and Luka/Kyrie is our nucleus.  

I was one of the biggest proponents of seeing Luka as our starting SF/PF, leaving two guard positions in the starting lineup.  I was wrong.  This negates some of the Luka matchup advantages.  Now that I see DJJ as a starting SF, I much prefer this over another guard.

I just don't think Green is a great fit with Luka/Kyrie, said so and wanted to trade him before the extension.  As you said, not a great POA defender.  I prefer Exum in the guard POA role, but obviously isn't a starter.

DJJ is perfect, but isn't a starter on a championship team.  I love him long term, using his flexibility off the bench.

I hope THJ isn't in our long term plans.  I'd much rather ride with Hardy as scoring off the bench *IF* he improves his defense.

I love OMax's size and tenacity, but it's a real question as to if he'll build his skills to break into the rotation.  He could be a bigger Jae Crowder or be an NBA short-timer.

I would say PJ is cemented.  Great upgrade from Grant.  We need to ride with him.

This leaves our real need as a DJJ-like starter.  I've been beating the Tari Eason drum forever now, but I really don't see a better fit.  Ideas: 
Tari Eason
Trey Murphy
GG Jackson
Brandon Clarke
DFS

[mvossman]

Unless I got the rules wrong (very possible) you only become MLE ineligible over the 2nd apron. I assume the apron that applies is the $183M figure from 2023/2024, which gives us roughly 10M for DJJ and the 2nd round pick. I think that´s absolutely in the right ballpark for DJJ. Maybe you sweeten the deal with an additional year on the contract. But that seems only fair given that at point we are just two weeks removed from winning our 2nd championship. 

That is probably plenty for DJJ, but if we cross the tax line the MLE becomes the tax MLE which is way less.

[The Jom]

Great post.

Yes, C rotation and Luka/Kyrie is our nebulous.  

I was one of the biggest proponents of seeing Luka as our starting SF/PF, leaving two guard positions in the starting lineup.  I was wrong.  This negates some of the Luka matchup advantages.  Now that I see DJJ as a starting SF, I much prefer this over another guard.

I just don't think Green is a great fit with Luka/Kyrie, said so and wanted to trade him before the extension.  As you said, not a great POA defender.  I prefer Exum in the guard POA role, but obviously isn't a starter.

DJJ is perfect, but isn't a starter on a championship team.  I love him long term, using his flexibility off the bench.

I hope THJ isn't in our long term plans.  I'd much rather ride with Hardy as scoring off the bench *IF* he improves his defense.

I love OMax's size and tenacity, but it's a real question as to if he'll build his skills to break into the rotation.  He could be a bigger Jae Crowder or be an NBA short-timer.

I would say PJ is cemented.  Great upgrade from Grant.  We need to ride with him.

This leaves our real need as a DJJ-like starter.  I've been beating the Tari Eason drum forever now, but I really don't see a better fit.  Ideas: 
Tari Eason
Trey Murphy
GG Jackson
Brandon Clarke
DFS

Nebulous or nucleus?

Interesting names you list there. Nice collection of potential. But I wonder. 

Having the ability to go with Kyrie, Luka, DJJ, PJ, Maxi maybe gives us the best (and biggest) small-ball playable lineup in the league. Will teams really keep going small against us in the playoffs? If I’m Minny or Denver, I want no part of small ball vs. these Mavs. I’m all in on my bigs vs. Gafford, Lively, etc. Perhaps we should be looking ahead to Wemby and the Spurs. But even then, I dunno. After years of having only Maxi who could play big against the littles, just maybe we now have an abundance of riches in that very important niche? 

Guys capable of playing small-ball 5 or at least 4 at a championship level:

PJ, Maxi, DJJ, Luka, Lively (probably), Omax (eventually), even Gafford (maybe)?

Remember that, not very long ago, THJ and DP were getting a lot of those minutes.