Trade & FA 2023-24: Booker Likes NYK? Vogel Out? Suns Imploding?

[youzigizag]

I think we really REALLY need to use the THJ contract to the absolute most. Green+THJ contract lets the Mavs get 1 last semi large trade and they can take back roughly 30 mil of salary with it. 

Now do they target a starting 3/4 that can play off PJ and can hit 3s? Do they break that up and bring in 2 guys that fill different needs? 


How they use Green+THJ+Hardy this summer along with the 25+31 will be really interesting to me. That and they have to retain DJJ. I think he's played himself out of the TP-MLE but who knows?

Im am very interested in the use of these assets as well.

Does anyone have a list of players that could be gettable with those assets, or a list of good players that could be pushed out of their team due to cap?  Example of the cap push out...IT IS ONLY REALGM TALK I HAVE READ AND DUE NOT KNOW THE VALIDITY OF IT...but an example of a good player being pushed out is like Herb Jones or Jaden McDaniels.   Again...no need to tell me how stupid that is...I am only using it as an example.

I am curious what our main needs are(playoffs will tell us more) and who is available and who might be available.

[Scott41theMavs]

I think we really REALLY need to use the THJ contract to the absolute most. Green+THJ contract lets the Mavs get 1 last semi large trade and they can take back roughly 30 mil of salary with it. 

Now do they target a starting 3/4 that can play off PJ and can hit 3s? Do they break that up and bring in 2 guys that fill different needs? 


How they use Green+THJ+Hardy this summer along with the 25+31 will be really interesting to me. That and they have to retain DJJ. I think he's played himself out of the TP-MLE but who knows?

DJJ seems to really like it here, but he's played himself up to full MLE status - unless other teams view him as a Dallas system player. Not to mention that if the Mavs trade for a forward, he has to come back in a lesser role. If DJJ is seriously in the Mavs' plans this summer, then Nico is going to have to work some serious cap magic to make it possible.

[The Jom]

I think we really REALLY need to use the THJ contract to the absolute most. Green+THJ contract lets the Mavs get 1 last semi large trade and they can take back roughly 30 mil of salary with it. 

Now do they target a starting 3/4 that can play off PJ and can hit 3s? Do they break that up and bring in 2 guys that fill different needs? 


How they use Green+THJ+Hardy this summer along with the 25+31 will be really interesting to me. That and they have to retain DJJ. I think he's played himself out of the TP-MLE but who knows?

I hate to say this and am ready to boo myself for putting it into text, but to really move the needle, don’t you have to give thought to packaging all available assets—including PJ Washington and, gulp, Dereck Lively—into an offer for Giannis? Add THJ’s expiring contract, Josh Green, and the kid from Marquette (pretty much everything you can get your hands on) and maybe you’re sniffing a deal there? It sure wouldn’t surprise me to see that teetering franchise go into a full-on meltdown.

[Scott41theMavs]

I hate to say this and am ready to boo myself for putting it into text, but to really move the needle, don’t you have to give thought to packaging all available assets—including PJ Washington and, gulp, Dereck Lively—into an offer for Giannis? Add THJ’s expiring contract, Josh Green, and the kid from Marquette (pretty much everything you can get your hands on) and maybe you’re sniffing a deal there? It sure wouldn’t surprise me to see that teetering franchise go into a full-on meltdown.

Yeah, I would do that. The Bucks wouldn't. Since it's a trade, and since he already has a ring, Giannis wouldn't get accused of Durantism for joining us on the heels of our '24 championship.

[Winter]

1. If Giannis ever gets traded, it won't be for a bunch mid-level players. The fan base would run the GM out of town with a trade like that. Even if Kyrie were included it wouldn't make sense for them. They would run Doc out of town before they trade Giannis.
2. I have a hard time throwing away a team on the cusp of winning. It's special when you groom your own players and put something together. This is just me, but I really don't want to be a different version of the Suns or the Clippers.

[youzigizag]

Tell me how ignorant I am for not doing the Giannis deal.

He is a needle mover. Ive been saying we need to get a high contract player who has legit skills.

Im torn on this one.

[F Gump]

I think we really REALLY need to use the THJ contract to the absolute most. Green+THJ contract lets the Mavs get 1 last semi large trade and they can take back roughly 30 mil of salary with it. 

Now do they target a starting 3/4 that can play off PJ and can hit 3s? Do they break that up and bring in 2 guys that fill different needs?

How they use Green+THJ+Hardy this summer along with the 25+31 will be really interesting to me. That and they have to retain DJJ. I think he's played himself out of the TP-MLE but who knows?

The choices to accomplish what needs to be done (as I see it) are very limited. I agree that they need to find a path to DJJ. I do think, because he's a defense-only guy, he's probably not going to be nearly as expensive as we fear, and he might even strongly prefer staying since his past places have not worked out at all for him, so I'd want to take advantage of such a window of opportunity.

They could certainly put the TxMLE on the table as a 1+1, starting at 5.2M, and perhaps he would say yes, with a plan to be a FA again in a year and get a bigger deal with Early Bird rights. That almost certainly lands them over Apron 1, but also offers no hard cap and some flexibility.

But I'd rather lock him up for 3-4 years instead, which would mean expanding the MLE room by reducing spending elsewhere, so that you can pay him more and still be under Apron 1. The avenue to that is a trade where the Mavs trade more salary for less, without messing with the needed players to keep.

Your idea to package THJ-Green (total salary about $29M) could work that way, where you're only taking back about $21.5M or somewhat more (the limit in salary differential is 7.5M if neither team has cap room and both can stay under Apron 1), but I frankly don't want any of those players who have contracts in that price range. I looked at the list. Ugh. And more broadly, I am still a proponent of a team of MLE-ish players, more or less, as how you pay those rotation guys. That's one of the things I really liked about the trades for Gafford (13.4M next year) and PJW (15.5M next year), the fact that both are not going to cost much beyond a big MLE that should be about 12.9M.

So if in a trade I am PAYING for a guy (with a pick or talent), I want to pay for the rotation guy whose salary is in the 10-15M range, so that he will fit in that payroll plan.

One trade that fits that model would be THJ for Caruso. Caruso is paid ~10M, and he may be available as his contract is expiring (and CHI may fear losing him in a year). He's a 2-way player. And if you did that swap, on the money front you would then create room to offer DJJ a deal starting at about $8-9M, which I think might be plenty to get him to sign for several years, and allows you to stay below Apron 1.

Because it's a path to BOTH Caruso and DJJ, you can justify the risk of Caruso walking, and still offer a FRP. But Caruso is extension eligible for an extend-and trade, too. Doesn't he seem like a guy who would fit well on this team?

Bottom Line ---
(1) THJ + 2025 FRP (lightly protected) for Caruso. Extend Caruso. (The CBA limits on a Caruso extension would be a starting salary of about $14M, which I think is plenty and maybe even too much. That number or less keeps him in that useful price range - and although he would come with Bird rights for when his contract expires, I don't want role players who will be eating up $20M & up out of my available spending room.)
(2) Sign DJJ at 3 yrs 27M.

That's my preferred summer.

[omahen]

The choices to accomplish what needs to be done (as I see it) are very limited. I agree that they need to find a path to DJJ. I do think, because he's a defense-only guy, he's probably not going to be nearly as expensive as we fear, and he might even strongly prefer staying since his past places have not worked out at all for him, so I'd want to take advantage of such a window of opportunity.

They could certainly put the TxMLE on the table as a 1+1, starting at 5.2M, and perhaps he would say yes, with a plan to be a FA again in a year and get a bigger deal with Early Bird rights. That almost certainly lands them over Apron 1, but also offers no hard cap and some flexibility.

But I'd rather lock him up for 3-4 years instead, which would mean expanding the MLE room by reducing spending elsewhere, so that you can pay him more and still be under Apron 1. The avenue to that is a trade where the Mavs trade more salary for less, without messing with the needed players to keep.

Your idea to package THJ-Green (total salary about $29M) could work that way, where you're only taking back about $21.5M or somewhat more (the limit in salary differential is 7.5M if neither team has cap room and both can stay under Apron 1), but I frankly don't want any of those players who have contracts in that price range. I looked at the list. Ugh. And more broadly, I am still a proponent of a team of MLE-ish players, more or less, as how you pay those rotation guys. That's one of the things I really liked about the trades for Gafford (13.4M next year) and PJW (15.5M next year), the fact that both are not going to cost much beyond a big MLE that should be about 12.9M.

So if in a trade I am PAYING for a guy (with a pick or talent), I want to pay for the rotation guy whose salary is in the 10-15M range, so that he will fit in that payroll plan.

One trade that fits that model would be THJ for Caruso. Caruso is paid ~10M, and he may be available as his contract is expiring (and CHI may fear losing him in a year). He's a 2-way player. And if you did that swap, on the money front you would then create room to offer DJJ a deal starting at about $8-9M, which I think might be plenty to get him to sign for several years, and allows you to stay below Apron 1.

Because it's a path to BOTH Caruso and DJJ, you can justify the risk of Caruso walking, and still offer a FRP. But Caruso is extension eligible for an extend-and trade, too. Doesn't he seem like a guy who would fit well on this team?

Bottom Line ---
(1) THJ + 2025 FRP (lightly protected) for Caruso. Extend Caruso. (The CBA limits on a Caruso extension would be a starting salary of about $14M, which I think is plenty and maybe even too much. That number or less keeps him in that useful price range - and although he would come with Bird rights for when his contract expires, I don't want role players who will be eating up $20M & up out of my available spending room.)
(2) Sign DJJ at 3 yrs 27M.

That's my preferred summer.

Caruso is certainly a model of a player that would fit for what Mavs need as a second guard. Of course a lot depends on how will Mavs do in the playoffs. If they have a deep run, playing around the edges is the most sound strategy. If not, than we might revisit the plan. Ideal blueprint for the guy on this position is an elite defender who can do stuff offensively. DJJ fits the bill for the defensive part, but falls short offensively. Exum is an above average defender (perhaps not elite) and a glue guy on offense. Some reliability concerns. Green is not really a good point of attack defender imho and he has his ups and downs offensively. 

Mavs are by far the deepest at the second guard position. They have THJ, Green, Exum and DJJ with Hardy probably eager to get more playing time. When everyone is healthy, there is only some 80 minutes for all those guys (lets say 16 behind each of Luka and Kyrie and all 48 minutes of the SG spot). Even less in playoffs. It is nice to have some quality reserves, as Luka and Kyrie do miss games. In the first part of the season the minutes for everyone were coming from playing some weird four guard lineups. When everyone healthy, THJ minutes got down significantly, even with Green out. If you bring in a player like Caruso while keeping Green, Exum and Hardy, DJJ minutes are likely to be decreased, which could also decrease his willingness to give Mavs any kind of discount. On the other hand, paying close to MLE level money for a player that will play limited minutes, is also not so attractive imho. 

My strategy would be to optmize the play-off rotation team. This means that I would want majority of salary cap for 8 or 9 players that will play most of playoff minutes available. It is nice to have a deep team, but those MLE level players are paid MLE level for a reason - they have weaknesses in their games and those weaknesses might get exposed hard in the playoffs. That is why I would prefer quality over quantity. The key is to find rotation players for the regular season from SRPs and vet min level guys. Basically the strategy of every top team (OKC the only exception, as majority of their team is still on rookie deals). I think three quality players are enough to cover the minutes behind Luka and Kyrie and man the SG spot (point of attack defender spot). Maximum four. 

I think following will need answers before summer:
- Mavs need another capable offensive guy, especially for the minutes when one of Luka and Kyrie will not be playing. Is PJ that guy? Or can the role player collective provide enough offense in those minutes?
- no question Mavs need as good defenders as possible next to Luka and Kyrie. Is shooting around them good enough with guys like DJJ, Exum, non-shooting centers, PJ,... Those of them that have good percentage are low volume shooters. PJ is the only bigger volume shooter, but his accuracy hasn't been great. THJ is neither a great shooter nor a good defender. We can expect teams with good centers to put them on our weak shooters, taking out PnR and clog the paint. 
- can our centers stay on court in the serious play-off environment? Several regular season games where opponent went small showed Mavs had issues. PnR is more or less gone in those cases. Can our centers punish smaller opponents either with offensive rebounding or exploiting size advantage? Can Mavs take opposing bigs out of the paint by forcing them to switch on Luka or Kyrie, even when they are not guarding our centers? Mavs defense depends a lot on Gafford and Lively being able to stay on court.
- Is Kidd the right coach to take this team all the way. Will he be able to adjust to all the tricks and schemes opposing coaches will present in playoff environment?

[omahen]

Looking around the league, one of the problems is that the bad teams have been bad for quite some time and there is not much left to take from them. Chicago seems like a most obvious team to blow it up, but they have been like that for two seasons already and they just keep staying pat. Will they fire their GM and bring in a guy to clean the house and start over?

Other than Chicago there are not many obvious targets that would consider blowing it up. Boston, Denver, OKC will just continue to try to improve, no matter the result. Phoenix, Clippers, GSW, Lakers, Miami, Milwaukee, Minny are in all-in mode but I don't see any of them blowing it up, even if they don't even make it out of first round. Pelicans could probably need some reshuffling, but I don't see them trading their interesting young wins unless a star is involved (no interest in Zion or Ingram). New York, Orlando, Houston, Indy, Memphis and Sacramento will be looking to improve. Philly will be star hunting and will have almost an empty roster at the summer start outside of their stars. Charlotte, Detroit, Toronto, Portland, San Antonio and Washington will likely remain bottom of the league and don't have anything interesting anymore, that would be available. Atlanta is the only other team that could go in either direction. Not really anything interesting there for what Mavs need.

Based on this, my dream target would remain Paul George. More realistic would be Caruso. Perhaps combination of Caruso and Williams, as Mavs could use another bigger wing. THJ + Green + draft assets for Caruso and Williams (SnT). Resign DJJ for taxMLE. The move solves the minutes issues at the second guard position and adds another bigger wing behind PJ. I think it wouldn't be difficult to stay under hard cap making these moves (to allow SnT).

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Looking around the league, one of the problems is that the bad teams have been bad for quite some time and there is not much left to take from them. Chicago seems like a most obvious team to blow it up, but they have been like that for two seasons already and they just keep staying pat. Will they fire their GM and bring in a guy to clean the house and start over?

Other than Chicago there are not many obvious targets that would consider blowing it up. Boston, Denver, OKC will just continue to try to improve, no matter the result. Phoenix, Clippers, GSW, Lakers, Miami, Milwaukee, Minny are in all-in mode but I don't see any of them blowing it up, even if they don't even make it out of first round. Pelicans could probably need some reshuffling, but I don't see them trading their interesting young wins unless a star is involved (no interest in Zion or Ingram). New York, Orlando, Houston, Indy, Memphis and Sacramento will be looking to improve. Philly will be star hunting and will have almost an empty roster at the summer start outside of their stars. Charlotte, Detroit, Toronto, Portland, San Antonio and Washington will likely remain bottom of the league and don't have anything interesting anymore, that would be available. Atlanta is the only other team that could go in either direction. Not really anything interesting there for what Mavs need.

Based on this, my dream target would remain Paul George. More realistic would be Caruso. Perhaps combination of Caruso and Williams, as Mavs could use another bigger wing. THJ + Green + draft assets for Caruso and Williams (SnT). Resign DJJ for taxMLE. The move solves the minutes issues at the second guard position and adds another bigger wing behind PJ. I think it wouldn't be difficult to stay under hard cap making these moves (to allow SnT).

I like the focus on SF/PF type wings.  I love Caruso, but would rather spend our assets elsewhere given all the ballhandlers we have.

I think Houston is a perfect trade partner.  Only one SG on the roster (Green and THJ).  Tari Eason is buried like 6 deep now.  I love him as our starting SF.  Green will be tough to trade given his base year, but that swap makes a lot of sense for both teams.

[loki]

Bottom Line ---
(1) THJ + 2025 FRP (lightly protected) for Caruso. Extend Caruso. (The CBA limits on a Caruso extension would be a starting salary of about $14M, which I think is plenty and maybe even too much. That number or less keeps him in that useful price range - and although he would come with Bird rights for when his contract expires, I don't want role players who will be eating up $20M & up out of my available spending room.)
(2) Sign DJJ at 3 yrs 27M.

That's my preferred summer.

Sensible plan, but I don't see any chance Caruso extends for the MLE. He'll probably make another 1st or 2nd Team All-Defense and expect more like $18-20M.

[loki]

I like the focus on SF/PF type wings.  I love Caruso, but would rather spend our assets elsewhere given all the ballhandlers we have.

I think Houston is a perfect trade partner.  Only one SG on the roster (Green and THJ).  Tari Eason is buried like 6 deep now.  I love him as our starting SF.  Green will be tough to trade given his base year, but that swap makes a lot of sense for both teams.

Houston values Eason much more than that. I don't see them having any interest in a swap for Green unless you're adding a good 1st.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Houston values Eason much more than that. I don't see them having any interest in a swap for Green unless you're adding a good 1st.

Going into this year, I'd agree.  After basically not playing at all this year, and after drafting Thompson and Whitmore, Eason is buried under JSJ, Brooks, Thompson, (possibly Tate) and Whitmore going into next season.  Just asset management alone would dictate they move him for a better fitting part.

[RGP1981]

Going into this year, I'd agree.  After basically not playing at all this year, and after drafting Thompson and Whitmore, Eason is buried under JSJ, Brooks, Thompson, (possibly Tate) and Whitmore going into next season.  Just asset management alone would dictate they move him for a better fitting part.

I think you will see them use Amen at PG a lot more next season. While Eason will be used at PF/SF and Whitmore will be used at SF/SG.

Jalen, Jabari, Sengun, Amen, Eason and Whitmore seems to be their main young core. They don't need to trade any of those yet, IMO, and the players they have no need for is Tate and Bullock.

G: Amen, FVV, Holiday
G: Green, Whitmore, Bullock/Tate
F: Brooks, Whitmore, Eason
F: Jabari, Eason, Jeff
C: Sengun, Adams, Landale

[F Gump]

Looking around the league, one of the problems is that the bad teams have been bad for quite some time and there is not much left to take from them. Chicago seems like a most obvious team to blow it up, but they have been like that for two seasons already and they just keep staying pat. Will they fire their GM and bring in a guy to clean the house and start over?

Other than Chicago there are not many obvious targets that would consider blowing it up. Boston, Denver, OKC will just continue to try to improve, no matter the result. Phoenix, Clippers, GSW, Lakers, Miami, Milwaukee, Minny are in all-in mode but I don't see any of them blowing it up, even if they don't even make it out of first round. Pelicans could probably need some reshuffling, but I don't see them trading their interesting young wins unless a star is involved (no interest in Zion or Ingram). New York, Orlando, Houston, Indy, Memphis and Sacramento will be looking to improve. Philly will be star hunting and will have almost an empty roster at the summer start outside of their stars. Charlotte, Detroit, Toronto, Portland, San Antonio and Washington will likely remain bottom of the league and don't have anything interesting anymore, that would be available. Atlanta is the only other team that could go in either direction. Not really anything interesting there for what Mavs need.

Based on this, my dream target would remain Paul George. More realistic would be Caruso. Perhaps combination of Caruso and Williams, as Mavs could use another bigger wing. THJ + Green + draft assets for Caruso and Williams (SnT). Resign DJJ for taxMLE. The move solves the minutes issues at the second guard position and adds another bigger wing behind PJ. I think it wouldn't be difficult to stay under hard cap making these moves (to allow SnT).

I agree with most of what you said in both your posts.

Yes, I would sign DJJ at TxMLE of 5.2 all day long, if he is open to it. I think that's an ideal price, but maybe so low in salary that he can't say yes (except for the fact that it is ALL the Mavs can possibly pay). Frankly, that would be an easy default plan for the summer: sign DJJ to the TxMLE, and then you have 2 open slots at the end of the roster (currently filled by Morris and Lawson) that you can fill with minimums or TPEs or trades. Trade THJ if you can, or just ride with basically the same crew.

I do agree that division of minutes can be a bit of a challenge when you have many good role players, but THJ outgoing for Caruso opens up over 2000 minutes (that's how many THJ has played this year), which is a bit larger than Caruso had in CHI. So nothing changes other than the player filling the minutes. I do envision in my Caruso idea that DJJ keeps his same role of defense and rebounding and super-athleticism, and Caruso becomes the 6th man to replace THJ/Hardy and provide offense -- but a much smarter player with some defensive skill. 

Also, minutes typically aren't the issue we expect. Injuries tend to change the landscape over and over during the season, and winning helps a lot. I recall when the Mavs won the title, they were so deep they didn't have minutes for everyone, and then Caron Butler - a really good starter - was lost for the season, and they won it all anyhow. When the year was over, everyone WANTED to return, even though minutes were tight.

As for Paul George, I don't think he is a practical pursuit for the Mavs. I'd like to have him - he's a star, not a role player, albeit one whose ongoing injury limits might create real problems. It sounds like a Mark Cuban type of pursuit, to be honest. But I think it would be a mistake to make that the focus, and the size of his contract is the issue. First, matching 49M takes so much of your team. Second, salary matching rules are prohibitive for teams over Apron 2 (LAC) that make it very hard for a team close to Apron 1 to do a swap with them. And if PG is a FA, they can't SNT him at all.

[mvossman]

I do agree that division of minutes can be a bit of a challenge when you have many good role players, but THJ outgoing for Caruso opens up over 2000 minutes (that's how many THJ has played this year), which is a bit larger than Caruso had in CHI. So nothing changes other than the player filling the minutes. I do envision in my Caruso idea that DJJ keeps his same role of defense and rebounding and super-athleticism, and Caruso becomes the 6th man to replace THJ/Hardy and provide offense -- but a much smarter player with some defensive skill. 

If we make the THJ for Caruso trade, I think we would be starting Caruso.  He is the better player on both ends of the court.  Exum would be the 6th man and DJJ would be 3/4 depth.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I don’t see DJJ getting the MLE. Thats $13 million.

Plus Okax will need to be worked into the rotation next year.

[F Gump]

Sensible plan, but I don't see any chance Caruso extends for the MLE. He'll probably make another 1st or 2nd Team All-Defense and expect more like $18-20M.

I'm not convinced Caruso gets in the range of 20M as a FA. He has a good bit of Josh Green in him, ie he is a good shooter who can make defensive plays and can make shots, but doesn't shoot often enough, so his scoring is rather anemic (around 11-12 ppg). He's a tick or two more productive than JG.

The extension number limit would not be MLE. It would start at 140% of his current salary, which would land him at about 4 yrs 60M. Again, just a tick or two above JG.

If I had to, I would still do THJ + FRP for him, even without an extension. I'd just prefer to have more than one year in place. But as I see it, there would also be value in replacing THJ's money with a smaller number, in order to have a few million more to offer DJJ.

[mvossman]

I'm not convinced Caruso gets in the range of 20M as a FA. He has a good bit of Josh Green in him, ie he is a good shooter who can make defensive plays and can make shots, but doesn't shoot often enough, so his scoring is rather anemic (around 11-12 ppg). He's a tick or two more productive than JG.

The extension number limit would not be MLE. It would start at 140% of his current salary, which would land him at about 4 yrs 60M. Again, just a tick or two above JG.

If I had to, I would still do THJ + FRP for him, even without an extension. I'd just prefer to have more than one year in place. But as I see it, there would also be value in replacing THJ's money with a smaller number, in order to have a few million more to offer DJJ.

The Josh Green comparison is fairly accurate on the offensive end of the court, but Caruso is an elite perimeter defender.  He is in a different league than Green on that end of the court.

[F Gump]

I don’t see DJJ getting the MLE. Thats $13 million.

Plus Okax will need to be worked into the rotation next year.

I don't see anyone proposing 13M for DJJ. But I think the 5.2M TxMLE might be too limiting, in which case they need to find a path to be able to increase the number.

Right now if they pay him the 5.2M, they end up a bit over Apron 1 (179M). To pay him more than that, they need the bigger MLE (even if they don't use all of it). That means finding a way to reduce other commitments to stay under the 179M Apron 1 (plus leave a modest cushion, so I'd guesstimate their number would be 178M) while increasing the 5.2M number. Trading THJ's 16.1M for Caruso's 10M allows them to get close to 9M for DJJ and stay under 178M, I think.

OMax will have to earn his minutes. They won't be gifted. That's how it is on a team that's winning. And so far, I don't see real evidence that he's threatening to be a real factor or a real contributor to winning games. He's looking like JAG.