Trade & FA 2023-24: OKC The Favorite For Nic Claxton Should He Leave BRK

[Scott41theMavs]

I would love for Dallas to sign Dinwiddie, but it's certainly not a done deal.  He's attending the Pelicans-Lakers game today.  Looks like it's between Dallas and the Lakers

What Lebron and Rich Paul want, they get. Criminal and tiresome. The Lakers are freaking below us in the standings. 

I'm salty just because I was treating getting SD in my heart like it was a done deal when my mind knew it was a pipe dream. I plead guilty that a decent portion of my giddiness over yesterday was over the presumption we would get him.

[Dundalis]

Not sure about Killian Hayes. The big question with the talk around Dante Exum being any kind of contributor with this team whatsoever was whether he could hit 3's. The fact that he could is what made him a great fit. If Exum couldn't hit 3's his value to the team shrinks exponentially because of what it means for spacing. Hayes literally can't shoot. He basically is the downside range of the Exum expectations. Not really sure how useful that is honestly, regardless of his age and defensive and ball handling abilities. He's just about 100% useless in the playoffs, that much is clear.

[F Gump]

REALLY seems like Dallas can pay more, if they want…

https://x.com/ericpincus/status/1756040572647936459?s=61&t=Zmns3TEXDYnIJIXeN05-eQ

Yes, of course. They CAN. But it's incredibly unusual for a player who is waived after the deadline to be  paid more than the ROS minimum.

The reasons WHY are all voluntary.

In general they have to do with how the rules whittle down any differences in over-minimum offers (the details are complicated, but involve NBA subsidies, and "set off" paybacks to the old team to partially compensate for the money previously paid), and issues for many teams of the tax line, apron line, limits on what they are allowed, etc. Teams also consider that player X already got paid for a full season contract, so it's not like he needs EXTRA pay beyond the minimum.

For example, I've seen suggestions the Mavs would offer over $4M for SD or someone. Since they are only ~$2.6M below the tax line, and might want to do other things later in the event of an injury, that just makes no sense. 

The common approach is that the teams offer ROS minimum, and you either want to play here for 2 months, or you want to play there for the same money. The team pays about $0.7M, then NBA pays him about $0.35M of off-the-cap subsidy money, and there is no set off for that size of deal. Once you go over the minimum, there is no NBA subsidy, and the right of set off comes into play (contracts typically have a set off factor of HALF of any amount above minimum, limited by the amount they already paid for the rest of season). Technically there can be somewhat of a difference if the number is bigger, but because of all the people who get paid on the side (ie, the NBA and the old team) instead of the money going to the player, teams don't like to play that game.

It's voluntary. Teams CAN go above minimum if they have cap allowance and wish to do so. But it's very uncommon.

[SleepingHero]

What Lebron and Rich Paul want, they get. Criminal and tiresome. The Lakers are freaking below us in the standings. 

I'm salty just because I was treating getting SD in my heart like it was a done deal when my mind knew it was a pipe dream. I plead guilty that a decent portion of my giddiness over yesterday was over the presumption we would get him.

He's giving both teams a chance to make their pitch.

Mavs can pay more. Mavs have the better team. Mavs have a great history with Dinwiddie. Mavs are probably the best chance for him to prove he can be worth a nice contract, especially if he shows out in the playoffs.

Lets see what Dinwiddie values.

[BigDirk41]

I think Dinwiddie signs with Dallas. Lakers and Mavs were the immediate favorites so he's just hearing both out. The Lakers are not a good team this year. Nothing wrong with him hearing what they have to offer.

[Dundalis]

Oh, another point. If Lively is out for 3-4 more games and Gafford shows to work well starting, I’m not all that confident that Lively is still the starter for the rest of the season. He still needs to figure out how to not pick up ticky tack fouls and Gafford has the tenure to have gotten that far. That will be important in the playoffs. Lively can still learn plenty off the bench.

Lively does need to learn how to not pick up ticky tack fouls, but he still stays out of foul trouble more than Gafford by a very slight margin when you look at per 36. From what I've seen a big knock on Gafford is that he is incredibly foul prone, so I'm not sure that's gonna be much of a point in Gafford's favor.

Another thing is the fact that Gafford is much closer in size to Maxi and Powell than he is to Lively. Obviously Gafford has the bulk that Lively doesn't have yet, but Gafford absolutely is still an undersized 5, even though he is a true big stylistically. I think that might come into play matchup wise against some teams. Lively is on a steep learning curve still though that could either continue to incline or taper off, to where we don't even know where he ends up in terms of his playing level by seasons end, where Gafford is a relatively well known entity. Lively has a defensive IQ that's on a different level though IMO (I think Lively could be averaging as many or more blocks than Gafford this season, but doesn't because he already understands the defensive risks of positionally selling out for blocks), so it's really about how much incremental improvement he continues to display.

[SleepingHero]

inui ? (THJ's #10 Version) (@oMavsoquista)
ℹ️ Mike Guevara, Spencer Dinwiddie trainer said to me on IG that Dinwiddie is heading to Dallas Mavericks ? ??

One of the bests, if not the best trainer in off season, make wonders with players like Dinwiddie, Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis bodies to perform better.

[Dundalis]

I don’t think we will make a big trade this summer.  I think we will get to the second round and maybe beyond this season and largely run it back and hope for some internal improvement (and find the next GG Jackson in the late second round).  THJ and 2025 (the first or the second) at the TDL a year from now is a possibility.  We aren’t replacing Lively, Luka or Kyrie in the starting lineup and the bar to upgrade Green and PJ will likely be high enough that it isn’t easily jumped over.  I’m not saying we can’t upgrade those guys.  I’m saying the list of players who are substantially better than either is short and those types of players are very expensive.  If I have a disappointment, it is that it will be hard to develop Hardy and OMax with so many mouths to feed.  We have time for OMax, but decision time regarding Hardy is the same summer as decision time for THJ.

I'd be interested to know the situation is with some of the other teams who have trade capital that absolutely dwarf the Mavs. I feel like some of them held back this TDL in order to understand more about their roster letting the season play out (OKC), before potentially going ham in the off season. Making this TDL a better opportunity for us to have gotten something of value than the off season will be given what we are competing with. But haven't looked too deeply at that situation.

[SleepingHero]

I would love for Dallas to sign Dinwiddie, but it's certainly not a done deal.  He's attending the Pelicans-Lakers game today.  Looks like it's between Dallas and the Lakers

Screenshot of Dinwiddie sitting next to Pelinka.

[WillE]

Screenshot of Dinwiddie sitting next to Pelinka.

Does not look like they enjoy each other...

[RGP1981]

Do not want Marcus Morris. Unless it happens with Markieff Morris going out, lol.

[ThisIStheYear]

Quick thoughts based on what I’m reading here: 1) it’s insanity to think Gafford, though he’s good, will replace a healthy DLive as a starter. I’d give that a 0% probability. 2) Certain metrics that are generally consistent regardless of situation indicate that Gafford is pretty good and PJ is not but maybe better than Grant. That’s what I expect, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that he can become an average player, though it would be unusual for a player to take that much of a jump. 3) That same kind of data tells me that Spencer is probably just in a bit of a slump and is actually playing better than it seems. A player of his caliber shouldn’t be available on the buy out market. The Mavs need to get that move done. 4) I like Exum a lot but he’s just never really going to be healthy. He’s just not. So, even more reason to grab Widdie and immediately put him in the rotation. For the most part, the Mavs have done some good. My fingers are crossed that PJ can take a jump forward and the Mavs can close Dinwiddie.

[omahen]

I don’t think we will make a big trade this summer.  I think we will get to the second round and maybe beyond this season and largely run it back and hope for some internal improvement (and find the next GG Jackson in the late second round).  THJ and 2025 (the first or the second) at the TDL a year from now is a possibility.  We aren’t replacing Lively, Luka or Kyrie in the starting lineup and the bar to upgrade Green and PJ will likely be high enough that it isn’t easily jumped over.  I’m not saying we can’t upgrade those guys.  I’m saying the list of players who are substantially better than either is short and those types of players are very expensive.  If I have a disappointment, it is that it will be hard to develop Hardy and OMax with so many mouths to feed.  We have time for OMax, but decision time regarding Hardy is the same summer as decision time for THJ.

You made a great summary and as I said before, I totally agree Mavs are better than they were. 

However, I remember you saying early in the season, I can't see how Mavs offense can be stopped with Luka/Kyrie/Lively and two shooters. Turns out Mavs offense is as good as it always was, but Mavs defense was so bad that good teams easily scored even more. I don't see Mavs significantly improved in that area.

This last paragraph you posted is why I am not enthusiastic. If Mavs ceiling is a 2nd round exit, how do they improve from here? As you said - going from Green and PJ to a serious upgrade isn't easy. Give it another try and finish with another 2nd round exit? Perhaps even WCF. Kyrie will turn 34 after that. 

I don't buy "we got young players (Gafford, PJ) who will keep their value" narrative some have posted. Both PJ and Gafford will be 26 next year and they have been around long enough. I could see Gafford having same value as Mavs paid. But PJ was greatly overpaid for what he is and will have to be considerably better in Dallas to have an almost unprotected FRP value.

I am not interested in being decent. I want rings. I am sure Luka does too.

[omahen]

It will be interesting to observe the situation next season. Lakers were in a very similar position - one pick to trade this TDL or three in the summer. They opted to stand pat and save their ammo for a true difference maker.

I am at least a little concerned about Kyrie. He will be expiring and I could easily see him asking out to play with his friend.

[Branduil]

You made a great summary and as I said before, I totally agree Mavs are better than they were. 

However, I remember you saying early in the season, I can't see how Mavs offense can be stopped with Luka/Kyrie/Lively and two shooters. Turns out Mavs offense is as good as it always was, but Mavs defense was so bad that good teams easily scored even more. I don't see Mavs significantly improved in that area.

This last paragraph you posted is why I am not enthusiastic. If Mavs ceiling is a 2nd round exit, how do they improve from here? As you said - going from Green and PJ to a serious upgrade isn't easy. Give it another try and finish with another 2nd round exit? Perhaps even WCF. Kyrie will turn 34 after that. 

I don't buy "we got young players (Gafford, PJ) who will keep their value" narrative some have posted. Both PJ and Gafford will be 26 next year and they have been around long enough. I could see Gafford having same value as Mavs paid. But PJ was greatly overpaid for what he is and will have to be considerably better in Dallas to have an almost unprotected FRP value.

I am not interested in being decent. I want rings. I am sure Luka does too.

I do believe Dallas could see a significant improvement on BOTH ends of the court simply by hiring a competent X-and-Os coach. Right now the offense is simply whatever Luka and Kyrie can generate and the defensive scheme actively sabotages any improvement.

[KillerLeft]

It will be interesting to observe the situation next season. Lakers were in a very similar position - one pick to trade this TDL or three in the summer. They opted to stand pat and save their ammo for a true difference maker.

I am at least a little concerned about Kyrie. He will be expiring and I could easily see him asking out to play with his friend.

Trading Kyrie next year might be the last really good way the Mavericks have to get better.

Honestly, I wouldn’t be against that.

---

I do believe Dallas could see a significant improvement on BOTH ends of the court simply by hiring a competent X-and-Os coach. Right now the offense is simply whatever Luka and Kyrie can generate and the defensive scheme actively sabotages any improvement.

They are currently in the process of overhauling the roster with his input in mind, so I highly doubt he’s going to lose his job anytime soon. That is sort of part of the depression for me.

[dirkfansince1998]

Trading Kyrie next year might be the last really good way the Mavericks have to get better.

Honestly, I wouldn’t be against that.

---

They are currently in the process of overhauling the roster with his input in mind, so I highly doubt he’s going to lose his job anytime soon. That is sort of part of the depression for me.

That's actually a big part of it. Gafford is basically a better version of what McGee was supposed to be. It's still 2020 Lakers 2.0. 
On defense: Big rim protector in the paint. Drop defense and ice against the pick and roll. Overload the strong side and pre rotate.
On offense: Iso heavy. Luka and Kyrie create the rest of the guys screen or space the floor. Not a lot of ball movement.

The guys they are adding right now are supposed to fill roles in that system. Gafford allows them to play 48 minutes of drop defense/rim protection + rim running. PJ is more versatile but for the most part he is going to space the floor or function as an outlet when teams double/trap Luka. I guess the idea is that he can take advantage of the resulting 4vs3.

This is just as much a test of Kidd's scheme as it is as about the players.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

That's actually a big part of it. Gafford is basically a better version of what McGee was supposed to be. It's still 2020 Lakers 2.0. 
On defense: Big rim protector in the paint. Drop defense and ice against the pick and roll. Overload the strong side and pre rotate.
On offense: Iso heavy. Luka and Kyrie create the rest of the guys screen or space the floor. Not a lot of ball movement.

The guys they are adding right now are supposed to fill roles in that system. Gafford allows them to play 48 minutes of drop defense/rim protection + rim running. PJ is more versatile but for the most part he is going to space the floor or function as an outlet when teams double/trap Luka. I guess the idea is that he can take advantage of the resulting 4vs3.

This is just as much a test of Kidd's scheme as it is as about the players.

I’m excited about this aspect of what PJ brings— versatility to space the floor and/or pressure the rim when teams double Luka or on the short roll. Compared to Grant Williams, DJJ or Maxi, PJ will be practically Siakam out there for us. Still super excited about PJ’s ability to play 5-out in the playoffs, but in the short term getting him up to speed in the intermediate offensive game will make our predictable offense much less predictable. We can also conceivably run out a bigger 5-Out lineup than most teams can with Maxi, PJ, Luka, Green, Kyrie that doesn’t get killed on the glass. Not sure how much of that we’ll see with Gafford and Lively but it’s a nice option to have.

[Scott41theMavs]

Having had a couple of days to reflect on the moves, a few thoughts:
1) PJ, for all his question marks and inefficiencies, is a more skilled player than Green, DFS, or GW. We've lacked skilled guys around here lately. This is a good thing.
2) PJ as he is now is overpaid, which gives great credence to the "Mavs got fleeced" narrative. Why did we have to give a FRP for a guy who got more than market value last summer?
3) PJ is undersized for the sort of starting PF we're looking for.
4) His skill level should serve to make things easier for Luka.
5) Bottom line on PJ is that there had better be a big Luka bump, and a lot of hard work to learn to play effective and efficient defense.
6) Many are also grousing that Gafford is overpaid. I know many here simply hate centers, but the bottom line is that Lively has shown how effective it is to have a strong center with Luka.
7) Gafford may be a backup, but he's very, very good as far as that sort of role goes. Think of all of the money we've shelled out on Powell and Maxi.
8) Seems to me that Gafford would be very effective next to Maxi or PJ. Maybe not so much Lively or Powell.

[Branduil]

Trading Kyrie next year might be the last really good way the Mavericks have to get better.

Honestly, I wouldn’t be against that.

---

They are currently in the process of overhauling the roster with his input in mind, so I highly doubt he’s going to lose his job anytime soon. That is sort of part of the depression for me.

OTOH, Kidd has no more excuses now. Win or GTFO