Trade & FA 2023-24: NOP Will Not Give Ingram an Extension

[Smitty]

Two very simple trades that I think are realistic and something the Mavs would do.

Mavs: Wiggins, Moody
Warriors: THJ, Curry

Mavs: PJW
Hornets: Holmes, Green


Luka - Exum - Hardy
Irving - Moody - Lawson*
Wiggins - DJJ - Omax
PJW - GWill - Morris
Lively - Maxi - Powell

Moody is the Green replacement in this scenario. I think it’s also possible Mavs pull off a Drummond trade. It’s a simple Morris swap with a SRP attached.

I don’t think Maxi can be counted on to stay healthy, so I see it as PJW/Gwill rotation at 4 and Lively/Drumm at 5. Anything from Maxi is a bonus. Obviously, I’d love to move Gwill but my guess is that nobody wants him. Wiggins is not a 4!

These trades seem very even (from the other teams perspective) and line up with rumors/needs.

Edit: Not what I want to happen. What I could see happening.

[DanSchwartzgan]

THJ is the obvious odd man out. I wonder if the simplest trade is THJ and 27 1st for PJ? He really would be a great fit and although giving up 27 hurts it’s better than 27 +omax that it would take to get Kuzma.

Hardaway hasn't come close to sniffing the closing lineups either of the last two nights.  He did another 'Hardaway waive' from near the paint midway through the 4th not making any real effort to anticipate a pass or close out.  A minute later he missed a 3 and was done with six minutes left.  The night before Kidd sat him the final 9 minutes.  When Kyrie and Luka are healthy, he's not critical to anything we do.  Yes, he can provide some offense when one of them is sitting, but he's certainly not irreplaceable in terms of what he brings to the table.  

I suspect Charlotte knows the request to include Green (who would need to be paired with Holmes or Williams) is not realistic.  It may just be a negotiating tactic because Dallas isn't budging on what it will offer in terms of the pick.  I don't think THJ for PJ is worth an unprotected pick.  But Dallas is the one asking and THJ doesn't exactly solve any of Charlotte's problems.  So, I suspect it takes some version of the 2027 pick...just not the version Dallas is offering.  So, Dallas tells the world it has other PF options and Charlotte tells the world it takes Green.

Part of the issue with Dallas is the beauty of 2027 is the chance Luka and Kyrie are gone by then.  Dallas can't roll the pick over to a 2028 first and only has a 2028 2nd to convey if a protected 2027 isn't traded.  I see a couple of options:

1.  Make this a swap where Dallas gets the worst of Charlotte's 2027, the 2027 owed by Miami or the Dallas pick.  

2.  Swap a lightly protected Dallas 2027 but get back the second rounder Charlotte is owed by either Portland or NO.  That way if the Dallas pick doesn't convey, it can be backed up by 2 seconds, one in 2027 and one in 2028.

[surfpuckmd]

THJ is not a better player than PJ Washington. Not in any way shape or form. Now factor in this teams need for a versatile 2 way 4 with a 7’2 wingspan and that swap is a no brainer. Also PJ is on a fantastic contract. You certainly would have to add some asset to entice Cha.

THJ is a much better offensive player than PJ Washington.  In all ways, shapes and forms.  His ability to hit a good percentage of his 3s on high volume is literally the most important skill a player can have playing off of Luka and Kyrie.  

He's the favorite for 6th man of the year because he is a really good offensive player who can carry us when either Kyrie or Luka is out or has a bad game.  

THJ is a bad defensive player.  Probably the worst in our rotation.  He draws the occasional charge but otherwise his defense is a liability.  PJ Washington is a below-average defensive player but he is better than THJ.

PJ Washington will make $15.5 million next season.  He's a backup on one of the league's worst teams.  He's a net negative on both offense and defense on EPM.  I don't see that as a good contract.

PJ Washington is better than Grant Williams.  If that's the trade, that's cool. 

THJ is better than PJ Washington though.  The message board groupthink here is just so strong that you think otherwise.

[BigDirk41]

THJ is not a better player than PJ Washington. Not in any way shape or form. Now factor in this teams need for a versatile 2 way 4 with a 7’2 wingspan and that swap is a no brainer. Also PJ is on a fantastic contract. You certainly would have to add some asset to entice Cha.

I'll take PJ Washington over THJ and not think twice about it.

[dirkfansince1998]

Looking at the last few deadlines the Mavs moves came out of nowhere. A player that fits into a similar role as PJ or Kuzma but hasn't been mentioned in trade rumors. Maybe Patrick Williams?

[omahen]

Hardaway hasn't come close to sniffing the closing lineups either of the last two nights.  He did another 'Hardaway waive' from near the paint midway through the 4th not making any real effort to anticipate a pass or close out.  A minute later he missed a 3 and was done with six minutes left.  The night before Kidd sat him the final 9 minutes.  When Kyrie and Luka are healthy, he's not critical to anything we do.  Yes, he can provide some offense when one of them is sitting, but he's certainly not irreplaceable in terms of what he brings to the table.  

I suspect Charlotte knows the request to include Green (who would need to be paired with Holmes or Williams) is not realistic.  It may just be a negotiating tactic because Dallas isn't budging on what it will offer in terms of the pick.  I don't think THJ for PJ is worth an unprotected pick.  But Dallas is the one asking and THJ doesn't exactly solve any of Charlotte's problems.  So, I suspect it takes some version of the 2027 pick...just not the version Dallas is offering.  So, Dallas tells the world it has other PF options and Charlotte tells the world it takes Green.

Part of the issue with Dallas is the beauty of 2027 is the chance Luka and Kyrie are gone by then.  Dallas can't roll the pick over to a 2028 first and only has a 2028 2nd to convey if a protected 2027 isn't traded.  I see a couple of options:

1.  Make this a swap where Dallas gets the worst of Charlotte's 2027, the 2027 owed by Miami or the Dallas pick.  

2.  Swap a lightly protected Dallas 2027 but get back the second rounder Charlotte is owed by either Portland or NO.  That way if the Dallas pick doesn't convey, it can be backed up by 2 seconds, one in 2027 and one in 2028.

I was thinking a lot about getting Charlotte FRP back or swaps. Problem I see is, they are likely facing a very long rebuild. LaMelo is decent, but not a top end star and injured a lot. Miller is a nice complementaty piece, but probably not a star. This year draft is supposed to be very weak, so they don't find a solution here either. They are not a FA destination. This means their picks will likely be bad for at least a couple of years more if not longer. I think second rounders are most we could hope for. Their second rounders will likely be quite valuable next couple of years

[omahen]

Looking at the last few deadlines the Mavs moves came out of nowhere. A player that fits into a similar role as PJ or Kuzma but hasn't been mentioned in trade rumors. Maybe Patrick Williams?

I don't think Williams is a good target. He will be looking at a relatively big contract (especially if he plays well) and Mavs already have high salaries. If I would be looking for patterns - last year Stein said several times Mavs have no interest in Kyrie.

This year everyone is downplaying Grant. Portland has same situation with Brogdon, downplaying the availability. Makes little sense to keep this vets, because Portland is really bad. They should be developing young guys. Unless of course the offers they are receiving are total trash.

[vfromlmf]

Marcus Morris. Batum.

[Smitty]

I don't think Williams is a good target. He will be looking at a relatively big contract (especially if he plays well) and Mavs already have high salaries. If I would be looking for patterns - last year Stein said several times Mavs have no interest in Kyrie.

This year everyone is downplaying Grant. Portland has same situation with Brogdon, downplaying the availability. Makes little sense to keep this vets, because Portland is really bad. They should be developing young guys. Unless of course the offers they are receiving are total trash.

I’m guessing a Grant trade probably includes THJ, Green, Omax and ‘27FRP.

[omahen]

I’m guessing a Grant trade probably includes THJ, Green, Omax and ‘27FRP.

I would hope Green is not in it and rather replace the offer with GW and a pick swap. Otherwise I am a big fan of Grant

[dirkfansince1998]

I don't think Williams is a good target. He will be looking at a relatively big contract (especially if he plays well) and Mavs already have high salaries. If I would be looking for patterns - last year Stein said several times Mavs have no interest in Kyrie.

This year everyone is downplaying Grant. Portland has same situation with Brogdon, downplaying the availability. Makes little sense to keep this vets, because Portland is really bad. They should be developing young guys. Unless of course the offers they are receiving are total trash.

Talking about patterns. Trading for players on expiring contracts that are up for a big payday is something the Mavs like to do.

[Smitty]

I would hope Green is not in it and rather replace the offer with GW and a pick swap. Otherwise I am a big fan of Grant

As would I. But I don’t see why POR does it.

[dirkfansince1998]

Marcus Morris. Batum.

That's probably the most realistic scenario. Make a trade just to make a trade. 2024 version of the Redick/Melli trade.

[omahen]

As would I. But I don’t see why POR does it.

Unprotected pick, pick swap and a young player is not nothing. Can they get more for Grant in the summer or later? Perhaps or even probably. But, there is also possibility they get less (injury,...).

[Smitty]

Unprotected pick, pick swap and a young player is not nothing. Can they get more for Grant in the summer or later? Perhaps or even probably. But, there is also possibility they get less (injury,...).

But taking on GWill’s contract… that’s the kicker.

[DanSchwartzgan]

As would I. But I don’t see why POR does it.

Portland is loaded at guard.  I don't think Green or Hardy does much for them.  OMax and 2027 (probably unprotected) and maybe a swap of 26 or 28 is a huge package.

Could we swap Holmes for RWIII while we are at it?

[Smitty]

Portland is loaded at guard.  I don't think Green or Hardy does much for them.  OMax and 2027 (probably unprotected) and maybe a swap of 26 or 28 is a huge package.

Could we swap Holmes for RWIII while we are at it?

Green may not do much for them but he’s an asset. Gwill is not. A pick swap probably doesn’t move the needle if we’re talking about the difference between Green and Gwill.

[mvossman]

I'll take PJ Washington over THJ and not think twice about it.

I'm guessing most folks would have said the same thing about GWill in the offseason.  If we spend assets for PJ, I hope he does not become another GWill.  The hope would be that being on a good team masked GWill defensive deficiencies, while being an a bad team masked PJ defensive strengths.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

Jalen Smith has a player option for next season.
Does he take that?

The Pacers have 4 PFs:
Siakam
Toppin
Jarace Walker
Smith

Not to mention, Turner can play PF but wouldn't as his role now is a definite C.

[Okstate819]

THJ is a much better offensive player than PJ Washington.  In all ways, shapes and forms.  His ability to hit a good percentage of his 3s on high volume is literally the most important skill a player can have playing off of Luka and Kyrie.  

He's the favorite for 6th man of the year because he is a really good offensive player who can carry us when either Kyrie or Luka is out or has a bad game.  

THJ is a bad defensive player.  Probably the worst in our rotation.  He draws the occasional charge but otherwise his defense is a liability.  PJ Washington is a below-average defensive player but he is better than THJ.

PJ Washington will make $15.5 million next season.  He's a backup on one of the league's worst teams.  He's a net negative on both offense and defense on EPM.  I don't see that as a good contract.

PJ Washington is better than Grant Williams.  If that's the trade, that's cool. 

THJ is better than PJ Washington though.  The message board groupthink here is just so strong that you think otherwise.

First off, its not groupthink just because its obvious. Secondly, any value THJ has is only inflated by playing next to Luka. He has one dimension to his game and when the 3s aren't falling he provides zero value when on the court. Undersized on the wing, cant guard smaller guards, terrible passer, zero playmaking, no rebounding, no length, nothing.... Hardy would be averaging 18 PPG if he played every minute THJ had this year. Point being, the skillset he brings is not that valuable when Luka and Kyrie are healthy

As for PJW, I would contend that using EPM to evaluate anything on that Charlotte dumpster fire of a situation is useless. He's undoubtedly talented and versatile. His efficiency would skyrocket next to Luka (as everyone's does). He provides some of the scoring in general, but adds more to this team offensively as a capable downhill attacker in 4 on 3 scenarios. Defensively he provides length and some switch ability. More importantly he provides at least average positional size at the 4 which we currently do not have.

I get the argument PJW is not worth the 27 1st. (Id try to make it a swap). I honestly dont know if  any other asset we have (Hardy, Omax) would even get Charlotte's attention. Assuming Green is off the table.