Trade & FA 2023-24: NOP Will Not Give Ingram an Extension

[mvossman]

I'm not wild about any deal that doesn't turn THJ into a longer, more physical, more athletic starting Forward.

I'm totally fine with GWill and DJJ as backups but if Dallas is starting and closing games with Luka, Kyrie, Exum/Green, and Lively, the lineup needs more length and athleticism than GWill can offer and more physicality and floor spacing than DJJ can offer.

We should be able to land one of Kuz, Wiggins, PJ or similar with some combination of THJ, Hardy, OMAX, 1st and filler. A deal has to start with THJ. It's just a matter of how more much we give.

I agree that is the area of weakness and that any one of those guys would help that area, but I think in order to contend, any one of those guys would need to be upgraded.  On the one hand I can see the argument for incremental improvements, but on the other I think trading assets for one of those guys, and then turning around half a year later and trying upgrade that player with less assets will be more difficult than keeping our all of our assets and going after a contention worthy starter.  I realize there is risk that we can't get that upgrade in the offseason, but worst case we make a move like the one we are talking about now, but from a stronger position (better assets, more options).

[KillerLeft]

I'm not wild about any deal that doesn't turn THJ into a longer, more physical, more athletic starting Forward.

I'm totally fine with GWill and DJJ as backups but if Dallas is starting and closing games with Luka, Kyrie, Exum/Green, and Lively, the lineup needs more length and athleticism than GWill can offer and more physicality and floor spacing than DJJ can offer.

We should be able to land one of Kuz, Wiggins, PJ or similar with some combination of THJ, Hardy, OMAX, 1st and filler. A deal has to start with THJ. It's just a matter of how more much we give.

Why does it have to start with THJ? That’s the part I don’t understand. Do you believe that the only way to get him out of the closing lineup is to get rid of him? I don’t. And, he is one of the players who’s actually playing well this year. Plus, his expiring contract will make him worth a lot more over the summer or this time next year.

If the player being brought in is supposed to take Williams’ role, I’d much rather start with Williams when building the deal, if I have a choice.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Edit: in my worst case scenario I had exactly what you laid out except Mavs sending the ‘27 FRP but getting back a SRP or two. A Nico special.

I do the same thing mentally and don't bother to write it down.  An unprotected first got us Kyrie 'freaking' Irving, so I think unprotected firsts are precious.  But, we gave away a pick swap (in the heart of Wemby's prime) for GWill.  So, maybe the idea is we just want to be able to draft from somewhere.  Hardy at 37 means we can find contribution in the early 2nd.  

I tend to look at the pick arsenal of teams I'm fantasy trading with.  The issue with Charlotte is they don't have a first and only have Boston's second this season.  Milwaukee has Portland's unprotected 2nd (so a really good second).  Seems like there might be a way of working one of those picks into this if we are sending out our 2027.

[omahen]

The issue with Charlotte is they don't have a first and only have Boston's second this season.  Milwaukee has Portland's unprotected 2nd (so a really good second).  Seems like there might be a way of working one of those picks into this if we are sending out our 2027.

Unless information on RealGM is wrong, Charlotte does have a pick this year. They did trade it to SAN, but is lottery protected.

[Mavs2021]

This might end up being the slowest trade deadline in a long time.

There have already been six (in season) trades:

Harden
Anunoby/Barrett
Bagley
Siakam
Rozier/Lowry
Adams

Last year only had five deals until the final 48 hours. Two and three years ago eight deals.

I don´t think it´s slow at all. It´s just hardcore fans/social media/NBA building up this major anticipation for these deadlines every year (to create content) and it rarely lives up to the hype.

[vfromlmf]

That's a great question but if you look at the roles, sub patterns, min distribution, THJ is really the odd man out. He's not taking minutes from Luka or Kyrie, and I don't think he should be taking minutes from Exum/Green. You only have maybe 14 minutes left - two seven minute runs - for that fifth guard/wing. Next you're dipping into the DJJ, DWill minutes and effectively playing THJ as a power forward.

There are obviously infinite ways to build a rotation, but everything balances out nicely if you replace THJ with a starting forward and move DJJ and DWill to the bench.

Truth is, I'm a THJ supporter. What he brings to this team will be difficult to replace, but I think it's time to move on.

[Mavs2021]

Yep.  I find if there is a trade I would definitely do, its probably too light on our side.  

I find myself fully in Omahen's camp.  We need to add a high level starting forward to this team.  That feels like the missing piece.  If the lineup Lively/???/Luka/Kyrie looks like a contender to me, then we should pay assets for that piece.  That player does not need to be a star, just a legit two way player.  I've been more than vocal that I don't think Kuz makes that a contending lineup due to defensive and offensive efficiency concerns.  I feel the same way about PJ.  Siakam or OG would have made that a contending lineup (maybe not this season, but by next season with a few more tweaks).  Using assets to bring in a starting forward now that we will likely need to upgrade in order to contend does not make a lot of sense.  

It makes even less sense to spend assets for a backup big.  After a rough start to the season, Powell has actually been good, and now we are seeing signs of life with Maxi.  Anything more than a second is wasting assets.

We need a back-up center as much as a scoring forward. Lively/Goga can probably protect the rim for 48 minutes and if the opposing team chooses to go small on them, we can insert Powell or Kleber into the line-up. But then it becomes OUR choice, not OUR DESPERATION, due to lack of better rebounding/rim-protection options. We need to balance out the frontcourt.  DJJ/Exum are very good defenders, but in today´s NBA you cannot stop guards completely anymore, but you can funnel them into uncomfortable places. A floater over well-positioned Lively/Goga is a tough shot. A floater over Powell/Grant is a "is there anybody here" shot.

[mvossman]

We need a back-up center as much as a scoring forward. Lively/Goga can probably protect the rim for 48 minutes and if the opposing team chooses to go small on them, we can insert Powell or Kleber into the line-up. But then it becomes OUR choice, not OUR DESPERATION, due to lack of better rebounding/rim-protection options. We need to balance out the frontcourt.  DJJ/Exum are very good defenders, but in today´s NBA you cannot stop guards completely anymore, but you can funnel them into uncomfortable places. A floater over well-positioned Lively/Goga is a tough shot. A floater over Powell/Grant is a "is there anybody here" shot.

We don't need a scoring forward, we need a two way forward, and the idea that a backup center is as important as contending level starting forward is ludicrous.  We disagree with what we currently have (our current backup center has the best defensive rating on the team) but just look at the market.  Next offseason a backup like your describing will a min contract or at most a small exception.  A starting 2 way forward would cost 30 mil on the open market and multiple firsts in a trade.  Those two needs are not even in the same ballpark.

[The Jom]

We need a back-up center as much as a scoring forward. Lively/Goga can probably protect the rim for 48 minutes and if the opposing team chooses to go small on them, we can insert Powell or Kleber into the line-up. But then it becomes OUR choice, not OUR DESPERATION, due to lack of better rebounding/rim-protection options. We need to balance out the frontcourt.  DJJ/Exum are very good defenders, but in today´s NBA you cannot stop guards completely anymore, but you can funnel them into uncomfortable places. A floater over well-positioned Lively/Goga is a tough shot. A floater over Powell/Grant is a "is there anybody here" shot.

Really don’t think we need either. Maxi and Powell as the 2nd & 3rd center look very good to me. And Lively will be a dependable 34 minute/night guy probably by next spring. So you’re only talking about upgrading 14 minutes of playing time, which is precisely the role I envision for Maxi. 

And the thing we’re missing at forward is not, in my mind, scoring. We have that in spades already. Someone who is able to defend all-star 3s and 4s is what we’re missing. And it’s important that he can rebound and is competent offensively. But he doesn’t have to score. Just enough to make the opponent guard him. (DFS could probably plug this hole pretty well.)

[Mavs2021]

We don't need a scoring forward, we need a two way forward, and the idea that a backup center is as important as contending level starting forward is ludicrous.  We disagree with what we currently have (our current backup center has the best defensive rating on the team) but just look at the market.  Next offseason a backup like your describing will a min contract or at most a small exception.  A starting 2 way forward would cost 30 mil on the open market and multiple firsts in a trade.  Those two needs are not even in the same ballpark.

Sure let´s trade for a starting $30M two way forward in season with our whooping assets of nothing.

[Smitty]

I do the same thing mentally and don't bother to write it down.  An unprotected first got us Kyrie 'freaking' Irving, so I think unprotected firsts are precious.  But, we gave away a pick swap (in the heart of Wemby's prime) for GWill.  So, maybe the idea is we just want to be able to draft from somewhere.  Hardy at 37 means we can find contribution in the early 2nd.  

I tend to look at the pick arsenal of teams I'm fantasy trading with.  The issue with Charlotte is they don't have a first and only have Boston's second this season.  Milwaukee has Portland's unprotected 2nd (so a really good second).  Seems like there might be a way of working one of those picks into this if we are sending out our 2027.

So to put pen to paper. 

Mavs: PJW, Portis, ‘24 SRP (POR) from MIL
Hornets: Holmes, Connaughton, ‘27 FRP (DAL)
Bucks: Gwill, Hardy, (Save $7M)

I noticed that this saves the Bucks a ton of money. Gets them below the Second Apron and a significantly less tax bill.

Would you pull the trigger?

Edit: Maybe you can get away with sending Curry instead of Hardy and no SRP coming back to Mavs. Still gets them below the Apron.

[BigDirk41]

So to put pen to paper. 

Mavs: PJW, Portis, ‘24 SRP (POR) from MIL
Hornets: Holmes, Connaughton, ‘27 FRP (DAL)
Bucks: Gwill, Hardy, (Save $7M)

I noticed that this saves the Bucks a ton of money. Gets them below the Second Apron and a significantly less tax bill.

Would you pull the trigger?

 
I wouldn't do that trade. I wouldn't include our first round pick. I don't disagree that might be the cost, but I'm not giving that pick up for good role players personally.

[chaparral]

So to put pen to paper. 

Mavs: PJW, Portis, ‘24 SRP (POR) from MIL
Hornets: Holmes, Connaughton, ‘27 FRP (DAL)
Bucks: Gwill, Hardy, (Save $7M)

I noticed that this saves the Bucks a ton of money. Gets them below the apron and a significantly less tax bill.

Would you pull the trigger?

Cuban sold the team and kept basketball control.  And now he has a boss, so he might feel like he has to make a splash this TDL.  Doing nothing and missing the playoffs or a play-in exit might not bold well for Cuban.

I think he (Cuban) would do something like this trade above.  I just hope Kuzma or Wiggins are not inbound to the Mavs.   

I like the trade above.

[Smitty]

 
I wouldn't do that trade. I wouldn't include our first round pick. I don't disagree that might be the cost, but I'm not giving that pick up for good role players personally.

I’m 50/50. I’m aware that there are more buyers than sellers so you have to pay to play. It all comes down to how each individual values the players involved. 

For me I’m high on PJW, think GWill may already cost assets to get rid of, and not particularly high on Hardy. 

Even then, I’m still not sure I do it but the Mavs are going to make a move and I’d much rather it be this than anything for Wiggins.

[SleepingHero]

I think that is the easiest way to guarantee Luka Dončić does not finish his career in Dallas.

I hope I am wrong, because I halfway expect it to happen.

Nobody wants to even consider this, but I honestly think the best move might just be to stand pat and get healthy. I would love to get PJ Washington, but I am not willing to move Green for him.

I will be fine if they just don’t make a bad deal.

I'm actually in 100% agreement here. No deal is infinitely better than a bad deal and I'm starting to come around to the idea of standing pat and getting healthy. 

Problem is banking on health when you have key guys like Kyrie and Exum is risky to say the least.

I also want it to be known I'm all in on Avdija as my main target. He fills a lot of what we want. He can defend, he's big at 6'9, he can rebound, and he has a great ability at passing the ball. 

I want to build on Smitty's former deal where the Mavs have to eat Wiggins contract and get paid with a rotation player:

GSW: THJ
DAL: Wiggins+Avdija
WAS: Hardy+Moody+Holmes+2 2nds from DAL, + 2 2nds from GSW.

Why does GSW do it? Even if they waived CP3 for next year, they'd still be just above the 1st apron and only 12 mil below the 2nd apron with Klay as a free agent and no real matchable contracts for trade purposes. That obviously doesn't help them build a team for the future. So far they have Curry, Green, Kuminga, Looney, Payton, and Podzmieski, as locks. Their depth chart for next year:

Curry/Podz
----/----
Kuminga/Payton
Green
Looney/Trace Jackson Davis

Klay is almost certain to be back. I can't see them letting him go. But it's obvious they need a shooting guard who can hit a high rate of spot up 3s to replace Klay who is declining rapidly. Enter THJ. He fits that mold to a T. His contract as an expiring is a good trade piece and he just fits what the Warriors want. They get off of Wiggins money which allows them to offer Klay a moderate size deal to retain him. They have to attach 2nds here. Wiggins contract is just that bad. I think the Warriors instantly deny sending a 1st with Wiggins (they only have 1 tradeable first like DAL) but would be more open to send a guy like Moody who hasn't been consistently in the rotation and has essentially been replaced by Podz anyways. Not only does this deal free up their cap sheet considerably, it still retains them flexibility in the summer with a 1st to trade and 2 expiring deals to contract match with CP3+THJ



Why does Washington do it? 

They've been mandated to get more picks. They obviously covet 1sts, but outside of Kuzma, it's hard to find a guy that's 100% worth a 1st that they're willing to trade right now. Avdija is close to that, but the new coach has reduced his role and minutes. I'd be fine sending a 1st for him if the Mavs had more, but in this deal the lack of draftable assets is made up with 2 solid prospects. 4 2nds is nothing to scoff at. They also are getting paid in 2 1st round worthy prospects in Moody and Hardy. Two guys that can grow into a role the sooner they get rid of Poole. Holmes is an expiring contract. They have a TPE that fits him. 


Why does DAL do it?

Eating Wiggins isn't something that should be taken likely, but he's had a resurgence of late. Even at 12ppg he'd be a quality 3rd/4th option here. Of course there's a chance he's dead weight. That's where Avdija comes in. At 23 he's young enough to grow with Luka apart of the next generation. Mavs also still have GW to trade in the future along with other 1sts to further upgrade. 

This is a rare deal I'd be fine sending 2027 in instead of 2nds to make it happen. Only because if it does work out the Mavs have fixed their team for years to come:

Luka/Exum/Curry
Kyrie/Green
Wiggins/DJJ
Avdija/GW
Lively/Maxi/Powell

Both the Warriors and the Mavs are sending a similar package. A salary dump+prospect+2nds. WAS gets both the prospects AND 2nds. Mavs get a rotation player+reclamation salary dump. Warriors get cap space+rotation player. It feels balanced and also punitive from the Mavs perspective. This deal does keep the Mavs below the tax line as well.

[Smitty]

I'm actually in 100% agreement here. No deal is infinitely better than a bad deal and I'm starting to come around to the idea of standing pat and getting healthy. 

Problem is banking on health when you have key guys like Kyrie and Exum is risky to say the least.

I also want it to be known I'm all in on Avdija as my main target. He fills a lot of what we want. He can defend, he's big at 6'9, he can rebound, and he has a great ability at passing the ball. 

I want to build on Smitty's former deal where the Mavs have to eat Wiggins contract and get paid with a rotation player:

GSW: THJ
DAL: Wiggins+Avdija
WAS: Hardy+Moody+Holmes+2 2nds from DAL, + 2 2nds from GSW.

Why does GSW do it? Even if they waived CP3 for next year, they'd still be just above the 1st apron and only 12 mil below the 2nd apron with Klay as a free agent and no real matchable contracts for trade purposes. That obviously doesn't help them build a team for the future. So far they have Curry, Green, Kuminga, Looney, Payton, and Podzmieski, as locks. Their depth chart for next year:

Curry/Podz
----/----
Kuminga/Payton
Green
Looney/Trace Jackson Davis

Klay is almost certain to be back. I can't see them letting him go. But it's obvious they need a shooting guard who can hit a high rate of spot up 3s to replace Klay who is declining rapidly. Enter THJ. He fits that mold to a T. His contract as an expiring is a good trade piece and he just fits what the Warriors want. They get off of Wiggins money which allows them to offer Klay a moderate size deal to retain him. They have to attach 2nds here. Wiggins contract is just that bad. I think the Warriors instantly deny sending a 1st with Wiggins (they only have 1 tradeable first like DAL) but would be more open to send a guy like Moody who hasn't been consistently in the rotation and has essentially been replaced by Podz anyways. Not only does this deal free up their cap sheet considerably, it still retains them flexibility in the summer with a 1st to trade and 2 expiring deals to contract match with CP3+THJ



Why does Washington do it? 

They've been mandated to get more picks. They obviously covet 1sts, but outside of Kuzma, it's hard to find a guy that's 100% worth a 1st that they're willing to trade right now. Avdija is close to that, but the new coach has reduced his role and minutes. I'd be fine sending a 1st for him if the Mavs had more, but in this deal the lack of draftable assets is made up with 2 solid prospects. 4 2nds is nothing to scoff at. They also are getting paid in 2 1st round worthy prospects in Moody and Hardy. Two guys that can grow into a role the sooner they get rid of Poole. Holmes is an expiring contract. They have a TPE that fits him. 


Why does DAL do it?

Eating Wiggins isn't something that should be taken likely, but he's had a resurgence of late. Even at 12ppg he'd be a quality 3rd/4th option here. Of course there's a chance he's dead weight. That's where Avdija comes in. At 23 he's young enough to grow with Luka apart of the next generation. Mavs also still have GW to trade in the future along with other 1sts to further upgrade. 

This is a rare deal I'd be fine sending 2027 in instead of 2nds to make it happen. Only because if it does work out the Mavs have fixed their team for years to come:

Luka/Exum/Curry
Kyrie/Green
Wiggins/DJJ
Avdija/GW
Lively/Maxi/Powell

Both the Warriors and the Mavs are sending a similar package. A salary dump+prospect+2nds. WAS gets both the prospects AND 2nds. Mavs get a rotation player+reclamation salary dump. Warriors get cap space+rotation player. It feels balanced and also punitive from the Mavs perspective. This deal does keep the Mavs below the tax line as well.

I like what you did here and your explanation is thorough. I’ll assume Omax missing from the roster was just an oversight. Morris also, but who cares about him. 

This may be the only way I can stomach a deal involving Wiggins, but that’s because I really like Deni. Bench scoring could be a real issue and you’ve already touched on the downside of Wiggins. It’s something I can see the Mavs doing though.

[KillerLeft]

There are obviously infinite ways to build a rotation, but everything balances out nicely if you replace THJ with a starting forward and move DJJ and DWill to the bench. 

This is where you lose me. Do you guys think DJJ can play 2/3? Considering that for even 1.5 seconds nearly induces vomit for me. I think one of THEM (DJJ, Will) is the odd man out, and to me that seems kind of obvious. 

I think there are some ways in which THJ's minutes would decrease, sure, but his role isn't going to evaporate because you bring in a minutes eater at forward.

[omahen]

This is where you lose me. Do you guys think DJJ can play 2/3? Considering that for even 1.5 seconds nearly induces vomit for me. I think one of THEM (DJJ, Will) is the odd man out, and to me that seems kind of obvious. 

I think there are some ways in which THJ's minutes would decrease, sure, but his role isn't going to evaporate because you bring in a minutes eater at forward.

I think exactly that would happen, if you bring in a 2-way wing. A good player will need his shots and THJ is taking them at the moment. You can't get them elsewhere. Mavs will not create more shots nor you can even further reduce shots of Green/Exum if they keep playing. Perhaps shots structure will be different.

The only thing THJ is good add is taking a lot of shots. Replace that with someone who can also play defense, and you have something.

[omahen]

Milwaukee reportedly interested in Brown. He would be great for what they need next to Lillard. So here is a deal that could work, if Mavs really like Portis (add minor salaries if needed, didn't check with trade machine, but should be close):
Tor: GWill, Connaughton, 2 SRP from Mil, 2 SRP from Mavs
Mil: Brown
Dal: Portis

[SleepingHero]

I like what you did here and your explanation is thorough. I’ll assume Omax missing from the roster was just an oversight. Morris also, but who cares about him. 

This may be the only way I can stomach a deal involving Wiggins, but that’s because I really like Deni. Bench scoring could be a real issue and you’ve already touched on the downside of Wiggins. It’s something I can see the Mavs doing though.

The OMax omission was oversight! My bad.

Although I could see WAS want him over Hardy. I'm not sure I'd do the deal with him in it, as foolish as that may seem. 

I don't think bench scoring would be an issue. You'd have 2 of Luka, Kyrie, and Wiggins on the court at any time. Wiggins even in this state is still putting up around 12 a game. Deni can score as well. 

We'd just need Green+Exum+DJJ to stay healthy for it to work. That lineup did well in December.