Trade & FA 2023-24: Paul George to Test Free Agency After No Contract Extension

[KillerLeft]

The biggest problem the Mavs have is lack of size and physicality. Second to that is spacing. Teams aren't guarding any of our wings except THJ who is is a 6' 5" guard. Leave Green (also a 6' 5" guard), Williams, DJJ wide open and live with the results. Exum hasn't been playing but we all know his jumper is questionable. You can't leave Kuz wide open. He's a better scorer than THJ and he's a 6' 10" starting forward. He's no defensive stopper but he can play enough team defense and he helps on the defensive glass. Guys like OG and Gordon just aren't available.

I’m not sure I agree, but you are sure making a strong case. 

Put a pin in that and tell me what he will cost.

[Smitty]

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
The Washington Wizards are not demanding two first-round picks for Kyle Kuzma, and the asking price may be lower, per @TheAthletic

“League sources maintain Washington has been holding out for two first-round picks for Kuzma, though team sources indicate that is somewhat overblown. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.”

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Player wise I don't mind that deal. Especially since I was defending Dinwiddie hard the other day. But the Mavs essentially push their expiring contracts to this offseason and free up 29 mil. What could they even do with that?

The deal on its own is an upgrade this year, and next imo. The fact that it clears 29M next year is a bonus. Mavs have more flexibility being further away from tax, 1st and 2nd apron. Able to take more money in future trades etc. Also, use it to resign O’Neal. Even Dinwiddie if the cost is low enough.

[vfromlmf]

An unvarnished review of our young players before we get to Kuzma's cost.

Green has been up and down but at this point he's more Payton Pritchard than Andre Iguodala. I wouldn't be shocked to see him blossom elsewhere. That often happens with a change of scenery after 4 years. But he's not some untouchable gem. He's an aggressive point-of-attack defender who makes mistakes in defensive rotations and gets lost. I love his speed and athleticism though.

Hardy has been lost for most of the year as he's tried to grow as a playmaker. He's done less in his career than Bones Hyland has, and Bones is out of the rotation and on the trading block himself. There's upside with Hardy, for sure. But he's a prospect, not Tyrese Maxey.

OMAX is a giraffe on roller skates. I love the kid and wish him the best but based on what we've seen so far, he's the definition of a D-League prospect. I'm certainly not willing to sacrifice an MVP-caliber season from Luka just in case OMAX turns into something in 3-4 years.

As state above, the deal I like is THJ to IND, for expiring Hield plus Curry and a late Dallas 1st to WAS, for Kuzma to DAL. If push comes to shove I'd part with one of our prospects without too much concern.

Expiring + RJ Hamption + late 1st = Gordon

Expiring + prospect + Late 1st = Kuzma

[Smitty]

The better question might be: Why would Brooklyn convert two expiring contracts into two contracts with an extra year each, one of which is attached to a player who won't play, for only a 2nd round pick?

If they aren’t traded at the TDL, THJ and Holmes will likely be used in a bigger trade next year as expirings. Nets simply do the same and use them next year in something bigger. Maybe they like THJ as much as you do. Dinwiddie has reportedly given up this year. Claxton might be gone and you rehab Holmes (again an expiring) before next years TDL. While getting a pick or two this year in the process.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Put a pin in that and tell me what he will cost.

Honestly this is where any Kuzma needs to start.  It hard to talk about him at all without understanding what's being asked.

[KillerLeft]

An unvarnished review of our young players before we get to Kuzma's cost.

Green has been up and down but at this point he's more Payton Pritchard than Andre Iguodala. I wouldn't be shocked to see him blossom elsewhere. That often happens with a change of scenery after 4 years. But he's not some untouchable gem. He's an aggressive point-of-attack defender who makes mistakes in defensive rotations and gets lost. I love his speed and athleticism though.

Hardy has been lost for most of the year as he's tried to grow as a playmaker. He's done less in his career than Bones Hyland has, and Bones is out of the rotation and on the trading block himself. There's upside with Hardy, for sure. But he's a prospect, not Tyrese Maxey.

OMAX is a giraffe on roller skates. I love the kid and wish him the best but based on what we've seen so far, he's the definition of a D-League prospect. I'm certainly not willing to sacrifice an MVP-caliber season from Luka just in case OMAX turns into something in 3-4 years.

As state above, the deal I like is THJ to IND, for expiring Hield & Curry plus a late Dallas 1st to WAS, for Kuzma to DAL. If push comes to shove I'd part with one of our prospects without too much concern.

Expiring + RJ Hamption + late 1st = Gordon

Expiring + prospect + Late 1st = Kuzma

Not sure I fully understand your offer. Can’t tell if you are suggesting a second or a first. I don’t believe the Mavericks have the ability to offer a late first right now. It seems like because of picks already owed the protections would need to be so light that it’s basically unprotected (making it stupid not to treat it like a high lottery pick). That’s too much value in a deal like this.

I’m not a CBA expert like some of these guys, so I don’t know, maybe there is a way to heavily protect it to the point where it’s a “fake first” and converts into a 2nd or never changes hands at all, but then I don’t think it would have ENOUGH value.

EDIT: You edited, and it’s clear now. I have the same questions above.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

The Kuz "success" at defense was longer ago, it was as a bench player and the advanced stats are not terribly impressed with his defense even in his LA days (DARKO hates him).  I think there is more reason to believe in Murray than Kuz, but there were plenty on here concerned with his recent defense as well.

Last I checked, Haliburton led the league in DARKO and Kyrie and Luka were both top 10 (I may not be using the best source). Advanced defensive metrics are certainly valuable when starting to look at a player but they aren't something I take as seriously as the eye test when it comes to defense.  It's just a very tough thing to measure with numbers.

[vfromlmf]

Yeah, I meant a late 1st. The "2st" I wrote originally was a typo that's since been edited.

By "late" 1st I mean that pick should be in the 20s as long as Luka is around and I'm not ready to contemplate a future without him. If Luka leaves this whole thing will move to a vets-for-picks tank and rebuild.

[mvossman]

The biggest problem the Mavs have is lack of size and physicality. Second to that is spacing. Teams aren't guarding any of our wings except THJ who is is a 6' 5" guard. Leave Green (also a 6' 5" guard), Williams, DJJ wide open and live with the results. Exum hasn't been playing but we all know his jumper is questionable. You can't leave Kuz wide open. He's a better scorer than THJ and he's a 6' 10" starting forward. He's no defensive stopper but he can play enough team defense and he helps on the defensive glass. Guys like OG and Gordon just aren't available.

OG was available, it was just bad timing regarding when we get access to our assets.  That is the kind of player we should be targeting when we have the assets to do it this coming offseason.  There is not a move to make this TDL that will turn this team into a contender (certainly not Kuz).  That is why I think we should be patient, see what we actually have now if these guys ever get healthy and move in the offseason when conditions favor us better.

[KillerLeft]

Yeah, I meant a late 1st. The "2st" I wrote originally was a typo that's since been edited.

By "late" 1st I mean that pick should be in the 20s as long as Luka is around and I'm not ready to contemplate a future without him. If Luka leaves this whole thing will move to a vets-for-picks tank and rebuild.

But, if you are ready to trade away an unprotected first so far in the future that Luka might not be here, you simply must contemplate where you would be without him. Not to do so would be negligent, imo.

[vfromlmf]

OG was available, it was just bad timing regarding when we get access to our assets.  That is the kind of player we should be targeting when we have the assets to do it this coming offseason.  There is not a move to make this TDL that will turn this team into a contender (certainly not Kuz).  That is why I think we should be patient, see what we actually have now if these guys ever get healthy and move in the offseason when conditions favor us better.

There's an argument for that. There's also an argument for win now. I personally don't think this team is too far away.

My priorities are starting forward who can rebound, defend and score with length. Siakam is way better than Kuzma. But I'm not ready to say this team can't win with an upgrade. Kuzma is better than DFS and Bullock.

Second on my priority list would be a five-out center who can close games. Kleber is our guy but ...

[mvossman]

Last I checked, Haliburton led the league in DARKO and Kyrie and Luka were both top 10 (I may not be using the best source). Advanced defensive metrics are certainly valuable when starting to look at a player but they aren't something I take as seriously as the eye test when it comes to defense.  It's just a very tough thing to measure with numbers.

I'm not sure what you are referring to?  Haliburton has a good DARKO, but nowhere near league leading.  If you are talking about defense you are way off.  DARKO says Haliburton sucks at defense, Luka is bad, and Kyrie is not good.

I agree its really hard to judge defense with metrics.  By far the best seem to be EPM and DARKO, and for the most part they are in the ball park of the eye test (better than any other), especially if you look over a big sample (multiple seasons).

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I'm not sure what you are referring to?  Haliburton has a good DARKO, but nowhere near league leading.  If you are talking about defense you are way off.  DARKO says Haliburton sucks at defense, Luka is bad, and Kyrie is not good.

I agree its really hard to judge defense with metrics.  By far the best seem to be EPM and DARKO, and for the most part they are in the ball park of the eye test (better than any other), especially if you look over a big sample (multiple seasons).

Ya definitely looking at the wrong stuff.  Can you share where you can monitor DARKO stuff?

[mvossman]

There's an argument for that. There's also an argument for win now. I personally don't think this team is too far away.

My priorities are starting forward who can rebound, defend and score with length. Siakam is way better than Kuzma. But I'm not ready to say this team can't win with an upgrade. Kuzma is better than DFS and Bullock.

Second on my priority list would be a five-out center who can close games. Kleber is our guy but ...

Yeah, I think we are farther from contention than you do.  They are just so bad at defense, and I am wildly skeptical that putting Kuz in the starting lineup is going to significantly change that.  It would be different if we could have landed either OG or Siakam.

To be honest, I think we got more from Dorian a couple years ago than we would be getting from Kuz.  His defense was crucial to that team.

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Ya definitely looking at the wrong stuff.  Can you share where you can monitor DARKO stuff?

Here you go.  To be honest, I think EPM is a little better, but the Historical career trajectory on DARKO is very useful. 

https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO/

[SleepingHero]

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
The Houston Rockets are keeping tabs on Clint Capela, Robert Williams III, Kelly Olynyk and Andre Drummond, per @TheAthletic

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
The Brooklyn Nets have ZERO interest in any deal involving Mikal Bridges, per @TheAthletic

He’s completely untouchable


Dime Alerts (@dimealerts)
The Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns are showing interest in Jae’Sean Tate

(Via @TheAthletic)

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Dereck Lively II Muse (@DL2Muse)
On Bleacher Report’s Warriors’ trades live stream, they floated this idea out there. Thoughts?

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Evan Sidery (@esidery)
The Rockets have quietly repositioned their stance heading into the trade deadline with the intention of making big win-now moves, per @KellyIko (https://theathletic.com/5240648/2024/01/...-deadline/).

Houston is now willing to relinquish one of their blue chip prospects in exchange for a star-level player.

[vfromlmf]

Yeah, I think we are farther from contention than you do.  They are just so bad at defense, and I am wildly skeptical that putting Kuz in the starting lineup is going to significantly change that.  

They'd look a lot better on defense if they could defensive rebound. I also think Exum is their best perimeter defender.

I'd like to see how this team looks fully healthy, with a 6' 10" starting forward replacing THJ's scoring.

[Nowitzki Way]

The Rockets, like OKC, can get pretty much anyone they want once they decide to go all in with picks and young players.

[Mavs2021]

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Dereck Lively II Muse (@DL2Muse)
On Bleacher Report’s Warriors’ trades live stream, they floated this idea out there. Thoughts?

I wish that person was the Warriors GM. LOL.

[BigDirk41]

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
The Houston Rockets are keeping tabs on Clint Capela, Robert Williams III, Kelly Olynyk and Andre Drummond, per @TheAthletic

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
The Brooklyn Nets have ZERO interest in any deal involving Mikal Bridges, per @TheAthletic

He’s completely untouchable


Dime Alerts (@dimealerts)
The Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns are showing interest in Jae’Sean Tate

(Via @TheAthletic)

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Dereck Lively II Muse (@DL2Muse)
On Bleacher Report’s Warriors’ trades live stream, they floated this idea out there. Thoughts?

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Evan Sidery (@esidery)
The Rockets have quietly repositioned their stance heading into the trade deadline with the intention of making big win-now moves, per @KellyIko (https://theathletic.com/5240648/2024/01/...-deadline/).

Houston is now willing to relinquish one of their blue chip prospects in exchange for a star-level player.

We get A first round picks with Wiggins? Yeah I probably take Wiggins with compensation.

[Nowitzki Way]

We get A first round picks with Wiggins? Yeah I probably take Wiggins with compensation.

That 2026 1st will probably be a lottery pick too.