Trade & FA 2023-24: PHI Keeping An Eye on Butler | Butler Wants Max Extension

[KillerLeft]

July 2023…According to NBA insider Marc Stein, the Mavs are still expected to trade Tim Hardaway Jr. and move on from JaVale McGee either via trade, or by release.

They’ve been trying to move his bum ass for a while.

They have, but he's obviously not a bum. If he was, he wouldn't be playing so much.  And, his play/contract is obviously not why they haven't been able to move him - seems pretty obvious they were trying to use him to get off of McGee to me. That didn't work, but it was McGee, not Hardaway, who got stretch-waived. 

I don't get what you're arguing. This conversation led to all of us agreeing that THJ was on the block (other than Marks, who wouldn't trade him because he's playing well this year on a good contract). WE all think he's gone soon.

EDIT: Whoops, I forgot about the part where Dan suggested GWill/Hardy. I'd love that deal, but to be clear, it's not what I expect. I think the Mavs want to keep Hardy, which basically means they must move THJ.

[KillerLeft]

Malik Beasley signed for 1 year, $3 million. What’s the difference between him and THJ?

Well, that's kind of what I'm asking. I just checked Beasley's lifetime contracts, and they're kind of all over the place. He got a lot more to play for Minnesota, and last season, for Utah. This current contract (a 1-year deal, so not great for him, thinking about bird rights) is with MIL, a contender. AND, it came at a time when everyone is trying to figure out what the new economic realities are, so maybe there wasn't a Minnesota out there for him this time. 

My question was: I wonder what Hardaway will get on his NEXT deal? Are we really sure we wouldn't want him back on a Powellesque paycut??? I think I would.

[SleepingHero]

Well, that's kind of what I'm asking. I just checked Beasley's lifetime contracts, and they're kind of all over the place. He got a lot more to play for Minnesota, and last season, for Utah. This current contract (a 1-year deal, so not great for him, thinking about bird rights) is with MIL, a contender. AND, it came at a time when everyone is trying to figure out what the new economic realities are, so maybe there wasn't a Minnesota out there for him this time. 

My question was: I wonder what Hardaway will get on his NEXT deal? Are we really sure we wouldn't want him back on a Powellesque paycut??? I think I would.

I am 100% sure I wouldn't want him back. It's time to move on. This team reached its highest highs when THJ was never on the court.

[KillerLeft]

I am 100% sure I wouldn't want him back. It's time to move on. This team reached its highest highs when THJ was never on the court.

So in other words, you're so out on THJ you think the team would be better just by removing him, and it's not about allocation of cap resources, the size of his role, etc. You just think his presence on the roster and in the building makes the team weaker. 

I have to tell you, I think that's extremely incorrect. I'm ok with moving on from him in circumstances that make sense, but he's basically the team's third or fourth best player. I don't see a reasonable argument for addition by subtraction.

[SleepingHero]

So in other words, you're so out on THJ you think the team would be better just by removing him, and it's not about allocation of cap resources, the size of his role, etc. You just think his presence on the roster and in the building makes the team weaker. 

I have to tell you, I think that's extremely incorrect. I'm ok with moving on from him in circumstances that make sense, but he's basically the team's third or fourth best player. I don't see a reasonable argument for addition by subtraction.

Correct. Exactly. Removing THJ would help this team incredibly.


The reasonable argument is the team reached the WCF without him. When Timmy went down that season the Mavs were 27-21. They ended the season 23-11 without him. 

If Timmy was this integral player, why did the team improve so much after he went down?

[KillerLeft]

Correct. Exactly. Removing THJ would help this team incredibly.


The reasonable argument is the team reached the WCF without him. When Timmy went down that season the Mavs were 27-21. They ended the season 23-11 without him. 

If Timmy was this integral player, why did the team improve so much after he went down?

Come on… You don’t honestly believe that team got better as a result of his injury, do you?

I think it’s a reasonable argument that he’s not indispensable, sure, but it’s bonkers to believe they were better as a result of his absence. Bonkers. I have always thought they got better because Kidd finally let them go back to the spacing they had played with in the previous couple of seasons. I feel like there is a reason to believe they would’ve been even better if Hardaway had been there.

I don’t know how to move forward in a conversation about this with someone who believes what you’re saying. Seems like this is an emotional issue for you, not a logical one. I mean, no judgment, because I have felt that way about players before, only from there on it’s not a very interesting conversation.

You realize that there is a really good chance the guy you’re talking about wins Sixth Man of the Year this season, right?

[surfpuckmd]

Correct. Exactly. Removing THJ would help this team incredibly.


The reasonable argument is the team reached the WCF without him. When Timmy went down that season the Mavs were 27-21. They ended the season 23-11 without him. 

If Timmy was this integral player, why did the team improve so much after he went down?

I would like to upgrade THJ with a player who can shoot the 3 but also plays solid defense. 

Trading THJ without replacing him though leaves us with Jaden Hardy and Seth Curry replacing his minutes.  They've both been wet dogshit this year.  I was bullish this offseason on Jaden Hardy but he's been terrible this year.  He's been worse than THJ both on offense and defense.  There are 40 guys in the G-league who can match his production.  Seth Curry is a shooting specialist with an eFG% of 47.8.  That's pathetic.  I believe he'll retire this offseason as he won't generate any more NBA interest.  Even Josh Green has struggled this year.  I'm a big Josh Green supporter and he's improved in the last few weeks but THJ has clearly been better this season.

Here are the players in our rotation who THJ is better than:  Jaden Hardy, Seth Curry, Josh Green, Grant Williams and Maxi Kleber.  Once we upgrade all of those players, than we should concentrate on upgrading the THJ role.

[KillerLeft]

Here are the players in our rotation who THJ is better than:  Jaden Hardy, Seth Curry, Josh Green, Grant Williams and Maxi Kleber.  Once we upgrade all of those players, than we should concentrate on upgrading the THJ role.

Your point is very reasonable, overall, and I agree, mostly. I don't think you can definitively claim that Exum and especially DJJ are better players at this point. I am close to agreeing on Exum, but he needs to stay healthy and play well consistently for a while to get me there. I FOR SURE don't think DJJ is better. Different, for sure, and different in a way that makes him uber valuable on this team. I could go along with better "for this team" even if I don't fully agree, but if both players were on the street right now, trying to get a minimum contract to finish the season I feel strongly that Hardaway would be much more in demand.

[loki]

Goga can't seem to get off the bench anymore. Makes me wonder if he's available or if they're just showcasing WCJ.

[surfpuckmd]

Your point is very reasonable, overall, and I agree, mostly. I don't think you can definitively claim that Exum and especially DJJ are better players at this point. I am close to agreeing on Exum, but he needs to stay healthy and play well consistently for a while to get me there. I FOR SURE don't think DJJ is better. Different, for sure, and different in a way that makes him uber valuable on this team. I could go along with better "for this team" even if I don't fully agree, but if both players were on the street right now, trying to get a minimum contract to finish the season I feel strongly that Hardaway would be much more in demand.

I didn't mean to say that DJJ and Exum are better than THJ although I think they probably have been somewhat better thus far this season.  I meant that THJ has clearly been better than the players I listed.  

The THJ and Dwight Powell hate is unreasonable.  There should be more Maxi Kleber hate.  He's missed most of the season with a pinky toe injury.  There are plenty of grandmas who have their toes amputated and are back to full speed two weeks later.  Maxi has become our Ben Simmons.

[SleepingHero]

Come on… You don’t honestly believe that team got better as a result of his injury, do you?

I think it’s a reasonable argument that he’s not indispensable, sure, but it’s bonkers to believe they were better as a result of his absence. Bonkers. I have always thought they got better because Kidd finally let them go back to the spacing they had played with in the previous couple of seasons. I feel like there is a reason to believe they would’ve been even better if Hardaway had been there.

I don’t know how to move forward in a conversation about this with someone who believes what you’re saying. Seems like this is an emotional issue for you, not a logical one. I mean, no judgment, because I have felt that way about players before, only from there on it’s not a very interesting conversation.

You realize that there is a really good chance the guy you’re talking about wins Sixth Man of the Year this season, right?

I do truly believe this.

We don't have to continue the conversation if you don't want to, that's totally fine. I'm entrenched in the idea that THJ is too hot and cold for this team to ever be truly competitive. We have evidence replacing THJ with someone who can handle the ball and facilitate while hitting 3s (Dinwiddie), catapulted that team from meh to great. I think Exum has shown he can replicate a lot of what we had with Dinwiddie. 

Let's just agree to disagree

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

The problem with THJ isn't entirely on THJ, it's partly because of Jason Kidd.
If Kidd isn't the lazy, unimaginative, incompetent coach that he is, THJ would have an appropriate role with the proportionate playing time.
Instead, Kidd has to rely on THJ for offense.
THJ has one of the greenest lights to shoot - that should NOT be the case.

That's on Kidd.

[KillerLeft]

I do truly believe this.

We don't have to continue the conversation if you don't want to, that's totally fine. I'm entrenched in the idea that THJ is too hot and cold for this team to ever be truly competitive. We have evidence replacing THJ with someone who can handle the ball and facilitate while hitting 3s (Dinwiddie), catapulted that team from meh to great. I think Exum has shown he can replicate a lot of what we had with Dinwiddie. 

Let's just agree to disagree

When Hardaway is gone, you’ll think the next shooter is too hot and cold. After that one, you will think the next one is too hot and cold. On and on. 

Shooters shoot. Sometimes they miss. The best ones have a very short memory and almost no conscience, and most importantly are ENCOURAGED to shoot by their teams. Hardaway is easily the best catch and shoot player on the Mavs, and he’s one of the better ones in the NBA. The percentages are what they are because he goes into every game with the mentality that he has to get shots up - no matter what. The thing that people don’t understand is that at the professional level, only the best shooters deal in the kind of volume Hardaway does. The percentage should be tracked, certainly, but it’s his ability to get credible shots off at high volume, despite everyone in the arena knowing that’s the goal, that makes him.

If all he shot were open corner threes, like Green, for example, his percentage would go up but the Mavs’ offense would be much worse than it is. That’s really saying something, because it’s pretty bad sometimes. I can think of like 10 games just off the top of my head for the last couple of months that would’ve been blowouts if it hadn’t been for Hardaway keeping them connected, entire quarters and halves at a time. 

It’s like people think him shooting is preventing somebody better from shooting. That’s pretty dumb, honestly. The evidence is right in front of us – he wants the ball, when so many others are too scared of the moment. Yes, I would much rather the ball be in Luka’s hands, or Kyrie’s, but when it’s forced out and starts to move, there is literally nobody on this team I’d rather it find than Hardaway. I don’t know how people don’t get this, but THJ is shooting as often as he does because that is what the team believes is it’s best chance to score efficiently in certain situations (a lot of situations).

Doesn’t seem like people are wanting to give him credit for the uptick in drives and paint scoring we are seeing this year, so I won’t bring that up. Maybe we can talk about his mid-range pull up game that’s effective all of a sudden.

No? We all just want a scapegoat because we’re bored with the team and mad that it’s not winning? Ok. 

My favorite part of this is that once he’s gone, the team will still not measure up to expectations, and there will be another scapegoat, and another. Then, a couple of years later, we’ll start seeing good box scores, and a whole crop of people will appear who wonder “why didn’t it work here with THJ?” We’re seeing it right now with Porziņģis, and tons of the same people who hate Hardaway thought Brunson was overrated and wouldn’t be missed that much.

Hardaway is not the problem here. They can certainly move on from him if/when something works out, But that’s not gonna fill the holes in all of your bad-fan hearts, I’m afraid. Heck, I don’t even think roster construction in general is the problem. I think this is a young team with a young superstar and a terrible coach. Quite literally, they do not know how to win. That’s it.

[KillerLeft]

I feel like Hardaway gets treated around here like Jason Terry used to… interesting to me. Want to talk about a guy who didn’t play defense? Jason Terry didn’t play defense. Hardaway does. Compared to Terry, THJ is Tony Allen.

I think Terry was the better offensive player, but he wasn’t nearly as creative as Hardaway. It was always either a catch and shoot three (with less variation in the footwork than THJ), an off-the-dribble three (not as often as THJ, but it was a different era) or that relentless two-dribble pull-up jumper from mid-range (this was more lethal than anything Hardaway has).

I bring it up because I remember back then, for many years leading up to the title, Terry drew nothing but hate from the majority of Mavs fans. They wanted to trade him, too. He was in trade rumors a lot back then, too. The dude ended up being the second best player on the championship team. There are arguments to be made that other players contributed more, and honestly, they were all super important. I’m not trying to have a debate here. Nor am I trying to suggest that Hardaway is definitely headed towards that outcome, because I don’t think he is (again, I think he’s gone soon). I am just saying that five years of Terry hate went by and then, all of a sudden, he was the main ball-handling offensive player for a title team. The Mavs would not have a title without him.

I just wish we weren’t so quick to hate these guys.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

Compared to Terry, THJ is Tony Allen.

I think Terry was the better offensive player, but he wasn’t nearly as creative as Hardaway.

I bring it up because I remember back then, for many years leading up to the title, Terry drew nothing but hate from the majority of Mavs fans. They wanted to trade him, too.

Jet was not just small, he was lean too, his physical limitations more than anything prevented him from being a good defender. I'm not saying he isn't defensively deficient, but THJ is NOT heads and shoulders above Jet when it comes too defensive instincts or lack thereof. 

I was relieved when the Mavs got THJ from the trade thinking -- "at last no more undersized guards for the other team to abuse", But THJ was false hope. I kept on thinking THJ was just coming from an injury, and would be better in time. Turns out, the 6'6" guard/wing that I was hoping for was/is a traffic cone after all. Jet at least, had one steal per game in his whole tenure as a Mav.

On offense? Jet was capable of more advance dribbles. I'm quite sure Jet can do the things THJ does in offense and even more, but the thing is -- he kept it simple. He kept it in routine, and his routine was efficient, and did not get in the way of Dirk. 

There were times I have questioned Jet's decision making, but IMHO his BBIQ is better than THJ's.

Maybe I am just biased as I love Jet.
The only time I kinda' hated him was in his first year as a Mav, not because of his play, but in my mind he was the Nash replacement, but couldn't fill Steve's shoes.
And some fans might have felt the same way I did, as there was no love for him in his first 2 years. 
But after that, there was no hate.
I do not recall fans asking for his head. If there were rumors about him, I must have missed them, and I don't recall missing much of anything about Jet.
Jet loved the Mavs and the fans loved him for this.
He was a colorful character, someone who ignited the crowd.
A guy like that would have fans on his side.
It's only when he was asking Cuban to pay up -- was the time fans soured on him.
THJ on the hand was like a baseball pitching machine.
Like a drone, an aircraft on auto pilot.
Didn't connect very well with the fans.

[SleepingHero]

When Hardaway is gone, you’ll think the next shooter is too hot and cold. After that one, you will think the next one is too hot and cold. On and on. 

Untrue. And not sure why you're even making that statement. I never said that about Seth Curry when he started here. I never said that about Monta Ellis. Vince Carter never got labeled that by me. I watched JET his entire time with the Mavs and while he was hot/cold at times, he was not nearly at the level of THJ at all. JET was a 50/40/80 player in his first season on the Mavs. Always hovered around 48/40/80. THJ has never gotten close to that level of that efficiency paired with that consistency. JET also never took the most inane shots that would make JR Smith blush. I thought we were trying to have a friendly disagreement but it seems like you're taking my factual statements about THJ as a personal attack upon you...? Tell me if I'm misreading tones here. Just want to clarify.
Hardaway is by definition a hot/cold player. Just look at his season this year and break it into 5 game stretches. He'll be a 20ppg guy on 50/50/90 then go down to 16ppg on 32/24/90 (not an exaggeration go look).  

Shooters shoot. Sometimes they miss. The best ones have a very short memory and almost no conscience, and most importantly are ENCOURAGED to shoot by their teams. Hardaway is easily the best catch and shoot player on the Mavs, and he’s one of the better ones in the NBA. The percentages are what they are because he goes into every game with the mentality that he has to get shots up - no matter what. The thing that people don’t understand is that at the professional level, only the best shooters deal in the kind of volume Hardaway does. The percentage should be tracked, certainly, but it’s his ability to get credible shots off at high volume, despite everyone in the arena knowing that’s the goal, that makes him.

Everything you said here is true up until you said credible. You can't sit here and tell me that THJ's shot quality is credible. More than 77% of his shots are generated for him through either Luka or Kyrie. NBA stat tracking doesn't explicitly track unassisted FG%, but we can learn how efficient he is based on the amount of dribbles and if the shot was defined as a pullup, considering most (if not all) of his assisted made shots are catch and shoot shots. 

With 0 dribbles THJ effective FG% is 55.9%. That puts him right around what Steph and Luka are generating for the season. With 1 dribble that number drops to 51.3%, not great. With 3-6 dribbles(the minimum amount to feasibly create your own shot)? He's at 50.9%, which is getting close to bottom of the league territory.  7+ dribbles is 46.7%. That is the 4th worst EFG% in the league. So no, THJ does NOT create credible shots on his own. Now this is NOT an advanced stat that I'm cherry picking. This is merely a measure of his efficiency that weighs 3s more because they are worth more points. Purely based on how many shots he attempts. 

I can without a doubt tell you NBA teams gameplan to make Timmy shoot the ball off the dribble and any time he does they scream with glee. Any shot he takes that isn't a catch or shoot is by definition a below average shot and statistically one of the worst ones in the league. How is he a credible shot maker? I'll borrow the same argument we make for Dwight where it comes to loud mistakes. THJ gets a lot of leeway because he makes the most ridiculous shots. That in no way means he's a credible shot maker nor should it give him a leash to fire away. 

It’s like people think him shooting is preventing somebody better from shooting. That’s pretty dumb, honestly. The evidence is right in front of us – he wants the ball, when so many others are too scared of the moment. Yes, I would much rather the ball be in Luka’s hands, or Kyrie’s, but when it’s forced out and starts to move, there is literally nobody on this team I’d rather it find than Hardaway. I don’t know how people don’t get this, but THJ is shooting as often as he does because that is what the team believes is it’s best chance to score efficiently in certain situations (a lot of situations).

Actually if THJ shot a self created jumper over someone else, then he IS preventing a higher quality shot attempt. I'm not even arguing for the ball to stick even further in Luka or Kyrie's hands, but by in large THJ is an awful 3rd option if we're needing a self created bucket. One could argue if there is even anyone else on the team that could just put the ball on the floor and make a bucket, and there really isn't. Josh Green has great efficiency but the volume isn't there. Hardy is even worse than THJ right now. But I'd say it falls more on the coach and his offensive system that the entire offense degenerates into iso-ball after a single PnR and we're forced to watch an inefficient THJ jumper as a bailout. The coach SHOULD create a system that plays to his players' strengths. Besides Luka and Kyrie, we are not good at iso-ball and don't have the personnel. We need a better, more reliable system. I am not blaming THJ for that. Multiple failures at play here. 

Doesn’t seem like people are wanting to give him credit for the uptick in drives and paint scoring we are seeing this year, so I won’t bring that up. Maybe we can talk about his mid-range pull up game that’s effective all of a sudden.

No? We all just want a scapegoat because we’re bored with the team and mad that it’s not winning? Ok.

My favorite part of this is that once he’s gone, the team will still not measure up to expectations, and there will be another scapegoat, and another. Then, a couple of years later, we’ll start seeing good box scores, and a whole crop of people will appear who wonder “why didn’t it work here with THJ?” We’re seeing it right now with Porziņģis, and tons of the same people who hate Hardaway thought Brunson was overrated and wouldn’t be missed that much.

The Mavs are 20th in the league in drives per game. They were ranked 20th last year. In 2021 when THJ went down, total drives went up. They ranked 2nd in the playoffs in drives per game. 

Mavs rank 27th in restricted area attempts (22nd in made shots). 27th in paint field goal attempts (24th in made shots). Timmy has attempted 60 shots this year at the rim. According to BBall ref, Timmy hasn't attempted more shots at the rim than in the previous 3 seasons. 

My favorite part is that once he's gone and replaced with an actual reliable 3rd option, the team will be much better off. 

Hardaway is not the problem here. They can certainly move on from him if/when something works out, But that’s not gonna fill the holes in all of your bad-fan hearts, I’m afraid. Heck, I don’t even think roster construction in general is the problem. I think this is a young team with a young superstar and a terrible coach. Quite literally, they do not know how to win. That’s it.

THJ is a problem here. He is a black hole on offense that is one of the least efficient players off the dribble. Pair that with the violent hot/cold shooting stretches and you have yourself a pretty inefficient player. Luka and Kyrie (but mainly Luka) hides SO much of the bad that comes with THJ that we've tolerated it. I am sure so many teams aren't gung-ho trading for the dude because they see that Luka is hiding and preventing his worst tendencies and realize they don't have their own Luka to recreate that. 

I'm glad we agree that Kidd is a terrible coach though.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

never mind

[KillerLeft]

I am so sorry for you, SH, that the team you follow has time and again prominently utilized a player in their attack who you despise this much. Truly, I sympathize. It must be hell.

If I felt that strongly that the team was hurting themselves by featuring a player when they’d be better off simply waiving him… I don’t know, man. I think I would follow a different team. I will probably do that myself if Kidd doesn’t get the axe pretty soon, but I don’t think he has much more than a season in him. I think this time next year it will be obvious that he is on the way out.

What’s kind of funny is that if Dan is correct and Hardy is about to be traded, I think there is an outside chance that Hardaway outlives Kidd here. I don’t think he will, but it’s funny to think about, especially in the context of this board’s temperature.

[BoredAssistant]

I hype up THJ when he's hot and probably disappear when he's cold. Similar to Dwight. It probably skews some perceptions of how the board actually views him.

[Smitty]

Hardaway has single-handedly won a game or two in the last few weeks. When he’s hot, he is fun to watch. He’s probably single-handedly lost as many games in that same stretch. If he’s outgoing in a trade his role will need to be replaced because Hardy/Curry aren’t capable of coming close to THJ’s “best” and are consistently near his “worst”.

My preference is a more consistent player. Even less ppg - but someone who isn’t the reason you lose. The 3rd scorer needs to be a 2-way player. We have way too many 1-way players and it’s a recipe for disaster, which is part of the reason this team is so inconsistent.

I’m no fan of the off-court stuff but someone like Miles Bridges would be ideal imo.