Trade & FA 2023-24: PHI Keeping An Eye on Butler | Butler Wants Max Extension

[The Jom]

Okay, fair enough. So the starting 5 is Kyrie, Green, Luka, Stewart, Lively. With Exum, Bojan and DJJ as the main options off the bench.

That team sounds like it could match up well against Timberwolves, Lakers, 76ers, Bucks, Kings, Rockets and Jazz.

Against the cream of this year's crop though?

Celtics... who is guarding Tatum and Brown?

Suns... who is guarding Durant?

Nuggets... who is guarding MPJ?

Clippers... who is guarding Kawhi and PG3?

OKC... who is guarding SGA and Jaylen Williams?

Pacers... who guarding Siakam?

Like these questions a lot. My answer is that Luka either has to guard or give up on being a champ. It’s fair to say his offensive load is too big, takes too much energy. But the answer to that is less offensive load, not no defense. I’m excited to see if he is gonna end up a Hardin-y player or an all-time great. And I think that answer is 100% about defense.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

Outside of Luka, is there a single Maverick who could score 43 on 22 shots? I don’t think Hardaway could. Kyrie? I’m honestly not sure he could at this point.

Washington has something. I’m telling you guys.

Deni is my guy, but I'm okay with PJ since he'd be cheaper.

I'm just not sure I like the idea of PJ and GW playing together. That's a severely undersized front court. I have a feeling Kidd's going to try that.
GW going out for PJ would be ideal.

GW+Hardy+Holmes+2 seconds enough for PJ+Richards?

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

Celtics... who is guarding Tatum and Brown?
Suns... who is guarding Durant?
Nuggets... who is guarding MPJ?
Clippers... who is guarding Kawhi and PG3?
OKC... who is guarding SGA and Jaylen Williams?
Pacers... who guarding Siakam?

Deni could guard all of them with varying degrees of success.
Probably would find Siakam and Kawhi as the most difficult covers -- too strong for Deni.

[SleepingHero]

PJ Washington tonight...

2 rebounds in 36 minutes...

really

I thought the 43 pts on 17-22 FG stood out a little more.

This back to back is some of the most hilarious posts I've read in a long while.


LOOOOOOOL.

[SleepingHero]

Outside of Luka, is there a single Maverick who could score 43 on 22 shots? I don’t think Hardaway could. Kyrie? I’m honestly not sure he could at this point.

Washington has something. I’m telling you guys.

Kyrie had 44 on 26 shots 2 weeks ago so pretty close. He's hovered around 40 on 55+% shooting 9 times this season. Of course I know you aren't drawing any sort of comparison between the two, but it's very very VERY likely Kyrie can drop 43 on 22 shots. 


I know you like PJ. He's definitely talented. After the CHA games I've watched I'm left with the same feelings I had when I watched CWood on HOU. Great moments, overall empty calories. 

I believed Wood could turn it around though (though I did say it was a long shot). Maybe I gotta watch more CHA games to see what you're seeing. 

If it was THJ+Hardy for PJ straight up I could get on board.

[KillerLeft]

Deni is my guy, but I'm okay with PJ since he'd be cheaper.

I'm just not sure I like the idea of PJ and GW playing together. That's a severely undersized front court. I have a feeling Kidd's going to try that.
GW going out for PJ would be ideal.

GW+Hardy+Holmes+2 seconds enough for PJ+Richards?

I wouldn’t play them together either. I’ve been thinking of all these 4’s as potential Williams REPLACEMENTS.

[KillerLeft]

Kyrie had 44 on 26 shots 2 weeks ago so pretty close. He's hovered around 40 on 55+% shooting 9 times this season. Of course I know you aren't drawing any sort of comparison between the two, but it's very very VERY likely Kyrie can drop 43 on 22 shots. 


I know you like PJ. He's definitely talented. After the CHA games I've watched I'm left with the same feelings I had when I watched CWood on HOU. Great moments, overall empty calories. 

I believed Wood could turn it around though (though I did say it was a long shot). Maybe I gotta watch more CHA games to see what you're seeing. 

If it was THJ+Hardy for PJ straight up I could get on board.

Washington is 100x more established than Wood. It’s cool to wonder if he’d be as good here as I think, but not so cool to compare him to Christian Wood. 

If I made the deal, I’d TRY to make Williams’ salary the bulk of it, not Hardaway, but of course would include Hardaway and/or Holmes if that’s what it took. For one thing, I think this year’s team is better if Williams is replaced and Hardaway left in that 6th man role. For another, I just can’t shake the feeling that the expiring THJ/Holmes could be used to greater effect over the summer or at the next deadline.

It could end up being a mistake including Hardy in a deal like this, but that’s a risk I’d take, too.

[KillerLeft]

I’ve been seeing reminders popping up in places (mostly Bobby Marks’ team trade videos) that young, cost-controlled players are kind of becoming the most important capital in the league.

Don’t know if they’re right, because we’ve heard this kind of doom and gloom before and the game’s economy has always adjusted, but people sure seem scared of that 2nd apron. Marks basically said trading Hardy, Lively and O-Max was unthinkable because the economics would soon dictate that they’d all be rotation players.

I found that point interesting, because as we all know, the Mavs’ approach to the draft this year came from left field, relative to their usual. Could the desire for cheaper, cost-controlled players have been the driver for the change? I mean we’ve always argued around here in favor of that kind of wisdom, but did the 2nd apron’s penalties inspire Cuban to start thinking 2-3 steps ahead about avoiding them?

If so, I’m not sure those players are as available as sweeteners as our ideas have assumed. And if they ARE available, I think they might have more trade value than we might be dreaming.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I’ve been seeing reminders popping up in places (mostly Bobby Marks’ team trade videos) that young, cost-controlled players are kind of becoming the most important capital in the league.

Don’t know if they’re right, because we’ve heard this kind of doom and gloom before and the game’s economy has always adjusted, but people sure seem scared of that 2nd apron. Marks basically said trading Hardy, Lively and O-Max was unthinkable because the economics would soon dictate that they’d all be rotation players.

I found that point interesting, because as we all know, the Mavs’ approach to the draft this year came from left field, relative to their usual. Could the desire for cheaper, cost-controlled players have been the driver for the change? I mean we’ve always argued around here in favor of that kind of wisdom, but did the 2nd apron’s penalties inspire Cuban to start thinking 2-3 steps ahead about avoiding them?

If so, I’m not sure those players are as available as sweeteners as our ideas have assumed. And if they ARE available, I think they might have more trade value than we might be dreaming.

I think there is a balance to be struck.  If the youngsters don’t develop, they could actually lose value.  I don’t see how a winning team has room for developmental minutes for both OMax and Hardy.

When everyone is healthy, Hardy is fighting Luka, Irving, Green and Exum for minutes at the 1, 2, 3.  Jones also grabs minutes at the three, so there just isn’t time for him when everyone else is playing.  If we trade for a four, OMax is behind New4, GWill and DJJ unless one of them goes out in the deal (you also have the issue of how to retain DJJ in the summer, though with his shooting tailing off, he’s looking more and more like the bench specialist he’s been his whole career).  

So, I think Marks makes a good point.  It doesn’t have to only apply to guys on rookie scale deals.  PJ or Avdija on a declining contract or Green or GWill at about the MLE is also “cost controlled”, just at a higher level.  I think where you get into trouble is paying Kuzma or Wiggins or Grant money well into the 20’s if they don’t produce at that level and fit well with what you have.  BTW, I’ve watched parts of the last two GSW games.  Wiggins has been engaged and played well…though he defers a lot.  Even with all of his issues, he’s still part of their closing lineup along with Kuminga (who is probably untouchable now), Curry, Thompson and Green.  I can see them trading Wiggins, but not attached to a first or Moody as I once hoped.

[KillerLeft]

I think there is a balance to be struck.  If the youngsters don’t develop, they could actually lose value.  I don’t see how a winning team has room for developmental minutes for both OMax and Hardy.

Your post is a good one, but it doesn't fully address my point, which I might not have made clear. 

My take on Marks' point is that teams might not have a CHOICE but to play their O-Max and Hardy types, regardless of whether or not they have "room for developmental minutes" for them. Regardless of whether they're trying to win. My takeaway was to wonder if rookie contracts just flat out won't be traded as much, moving forward. 

Your response, well-reasoned as always, was just kind of your usual outlook, stated again. I agree with it, at least in the old paradigm. I'm wondering if our paradigm needs to shift. 

Marks made it seem, at least to me, that he wouldn't even consider trading those guys. I think the words he used were "you can't."

[KillerLeft]

Personally, I think it would be a mistake to trade BOTH Hardy and THJ, even setting the economics aside.

I think THJ's contract is a good one, at least for now. I wonder what he'd get in the open market, and whether or not the Mavs could get him for cheaper the next time around. I know most people want him gone and don't even want to think about re-signing, but most of those same people felt that way about Powell, so I'm not going to rule it out yet.

If THJ is NOT in the plans (and having typed the paragraph above, I don't believe he is) then I think they're going to need bench offense from the guard position. I really, really do. AND, if/when this Luka/Kyrie thing ever really and truly works, wouldn't it be nice to have a Kyrie "understudy" to plug in during the 20-30 games (at least) Kyrie doesn't play? Wouldn't it also be nice to have Kyrie's replacement on the roster in case you want to move HIS contract later, as it gets close to expiring?

Curry has done nothing for me this season. I think he has been the biggest disappointment on the team. I think you've got to plan for either Hardaway OR Hardy to be in the rotation, moving forward, and I have a feeling it's going to be Hardy.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Your post is a good one, but it doesn't fully address my point, which I might not have made clear. 

My take on Marks' point is that teams might not have a CHOICE but to play their O-Max and Hardy types, regardless of whether or not they have "room for developmental minutes" for them. Regardless of whether they're trying to win. My takeaway was to wonder if rookie contracts just flat out won't be traded as much, moving forward. 

Your response, well-reasoned as always, was just kind of your usual outlook, stated again. I agree with it, at least in the old paradigm. I'm wondering if our paradigm needs to shift. 

Marks made it seem, at least to me, that he wouldn't even consider trading those guys. I think the words he used were "you can't."

I guess what I’m saying is I don’t totally buy what Marks is saying as an absolute and certainly not as it pertains to Dallas and these rookie scale guys in particular.  I agree that teams are going to want to avoid the second apron if they aren’t in it.  We may see teams take steps to get under it in the next two weeks (Miami?).

Rookie scale deals have two values in a 2-apron world.  If your rookie is good enough to contribute (Lively) it allows you to spend elsewhere until their extension kicks in.  If you are really good and already pushing the 2nd apron, your rookie scale extensions are a way to step over the line temporarily if you already have the depth needed to compete the next season or two.  But, eventually your depth will dwindle and you won’t have a path to replace it adequately.  Denver will be an interesting test for this.  Do their rookies adequately replace Brown?

But, it is all situational and the rookie scale guy has to be the right rookie scale guy.  If you have tied up too much money into 3rd/4th/5th/6th man types, you have to balance that with something (either a lack of stars or rookies).  I think what we are seeing with the contracts that were handed out this summer is teams will try to hold the line on certain archetypes.  Outside of Grant, VanVleet and maybe Bruce Brown’s one year guarantee, everyone else kind of slotted into the reality of their place on a team.  Even some stars like Irving, Middleton and Draymond took “discounts” to what they might have demanded in years past.  I think once teams work off some bad deals, we’ll see more of this slotting.  Good players on rookie scale deals will always be valuable.  But right now Hardy doesn’t fit that definition, the path for him to ‘prove-it’ is difficult and he’s a year from RFA.  I would have no issue cutting that cord for the right opportunity despite what Marks says.  I think doing so would actually help OMax over time, so there is an additional benefit to doing so.

[KillerLeft]

I guess what I’m saying is I don’t totally buy what Marks is saying as an absolute and certainly not as it pertains to Dallas and these rookie scale guys in particular.  I agree that teams are going to want to avoid the second apron if they aren’t in it.  We may see teams take steps to get under it in the next two weeks (Miami?).

Rookie scale deals have two values in a 2-apron world.  If your rookie is good enough to contribute (Lively) it allows you to spend elsewhere until their extension kicks in.  If you are really good and already pushing the 2nd apron, your rookie scale extensions are a way to step over the line temporarily if you already have the depth needed to compete the next season or two.  But, eventually your depth will dwindle and you won’t have a path to replace it adequately.  Denver will be an interesting test for this.  Do their rookies adequately replace Brown?

But, it is all situational and the rookie scale guy has to be the right rookie scale guy.  If you have tied up too much money into 3rd/4th/5th/6th man types, you have to balance that with something (either a lack of stars or rookies).  I think what we are seeing with the contracts that were handed out this summer is teams will try to hold the line on certain archetypes.  Outside of Grant, VanVleet and maybe Bruce Brown’s one year guarantee, everyone else kind of slotted into the reality of their place on a team.  Even some stars like Irving, Middleton and Draymond took “discounts” to what they might have demanded in years past.  I think once teams work off some bad deals, we’ll see more of this slotting.  Good players on rookie scale deals will always be valuable.  But right now Hardy doesn’t fit that definition, the path for him to ‘prove-it’ is difficult and he’s a year from RFA.  I would have no issue cutting that cord for the right opportunity despite what Marks says.  I think doing so would actually help OMax over time, so there is an additional benefit to doing so.

This all makes sense. 

I just wonder (not suggest, just wonder) whether or not the day is coming when staying below the 2nd apron OVERTLY takes priority over winning for the vast majority of teams, to the point where the situations don't matter, only the salary. As in, almost no middle class, whatsoever.

[Chicagojk]

On Tuesday BS pod, Bill Simmons brought up Zach Lavine for Dallas. LOL

I am continuing to harden my views that Dallas should be opportunistic, but right now is not the time to make a big trade...even if they could. With all the injuries and also the slew of games where they don't compete well, I don' think they have shown they are ready. So, I would most likely wait until the offseason. I am in favor of breaking up the three first round picks we can offer.

1 pick for guys of DFS, Bruce Brown, Miles Bridges (I would personally be out of that one), Bogdanovich, Royce O'neal...those type of players.

2 picks for a higher quality player- Still trying to figure who this guy is.

The rest of the year is to be competitive...hopefully while healthy. Trying to figure out if Kidd is the right coach. Do we have the right front office. Which youngsters are building blocks vs trade pieces, etc.

This has to be done in stealth mode. You can't let Luka feel like you are not going 100% all in now. That is why I mention being opportunistic. Making a bad trade right now if way worse than not making trade...even if it means we are a playin team.

[KillerLeft]

On Tuesday BS pod, Bill Simmons brought up Zach Lavine for Dallas.  LOL

Man, there was a time I would've leapt at the chance to add LaVine's athletic ability to this team as a second scorer. But now, with Kyrie here, no way, Jose. I'm sure your "LOL" indicates that you agree.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I will continue to pump

Hardaway -> Orlando
Gary Harris + Nugs 24 FRP -> Charlotte
PJ Washington -> Dallas

Feels like very fair value and what every team is searching for.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I think you've got to plan for either Hardaway OR Hardy to be in the rotation, moving forward, and I have a feeling it's going to be Hardy.

I went back and listened to Bobby Marks again.  He says nothing about Hardy in his comments about rookie scale guys.  He does mention Lively and OMax as guys he wouldn’t move.

He also put THJ on his list of guys he wouldn’t move.  Personally, I think the PJ deal is GWill + Hardy.  It doesn’t change our outlook substantially, but the lineup makes sense as he’s got a little more size than Williams and a more diverse overall game.  Starters are Lively, PJ, Luka, Kyrie and either Green or Exum.  The other of Green/Exum is off the bench with THJ and DJJ and we probably still need a reliable backup to Lively.  Note that this surrounds THJ with more D…especially if you add a defensive backup C.

Next year OMax takes the DJJ bench spot and if he’s not ready and DJJ doesn’t come back for the TP-MLE, then you find another temporary fix at the TP-MLE until he is ready.  My preference in a PJ deal would be to add Holmes and a top 7 protected first for Richards so that you could have the full MLE next summer.  Some will complain that we are giving up a first for a salary dump, but you are also getting Richards to help with the need behind Lively.  Plus, we don’t know that GWill/Hardy is enough to get PJ done.  So, adding the pick may be required just to get the PJ part done.

[KillerLeft]

I went back and listened to Bobby Marks again.  He says nothing about Hardy in his comments about rookie scale guys.  He does mention Lively and OMax as guys he wouldn’t move.

He also put THJ on his list of guys he wouldn’t move.  Personally, I think the PJ deal is GWill + Hardy.  It doesn’t change our outlook substantially, but the lineup makes sense as he’s got a little more size than Williams and a more diverse overall game.  Starters are Lively, PJ, Luka, Kyrie and either Green or Exum.  The other of Green/Exum is off the bench with THJ and DJJ and we probably still need a reliable backup to Lively.  Note that this surrounds THJ with more D…especially if you add a defensive backup C.

Next year OMax takes the DJJ bench spot and if he’s not ready and DJJ doesn’t come back for the TP-MLE, then you find another temporary fix at the TP-MLE until he is ready.  My preference in a PJ deal would be to add Holmes and a top 7 protected first for Richards so that you could have the full MLE next summer.  Some will complain that we are giving up a first for a salary dump, but you are also getting Richards to help with the need behind Lively.  Plus, we don’t know that GWill/Hardy is enough to get PJ done.  So, adding the pick may be required just to get the PJ part done.

He didn't mention Hardy by name, no, but imo his name was implied in the context of the point. 

Having said that, I'd do the deal you mention, especially if Hardaway is not involved. There are two points here: the economic one AND the one where I believe Hardy/THJ is an either/or math problem. I believe coming out of this TDL, next summer or the following TDL with BOTH Hardy and THJ would be a mistake, but I also think it would be a mistake to have NEITHER when the music stops.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Malik Beasley signed for 1 year, $3 million. What’s the difference between him and THJ?

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

July 2023…According to NBA insider Marc Stein, the Mavs are still expected to trade Tim Hardaway Jr. and move on from JaVale McGee either via trade, or by release.

They’ve been trying to move his bum ass for a while.