Trade & FA 2023-24: OKC The Favorite For Nic Claxton Should He Leave BRK

[SleepingHero]

I just had the pleasure of watching BRK vs. DET to see if the Pistons could avoid the most dubious record of all-time.

Some things:

Bogdanovic is cooked defensively. He can shoot the ball pretty well, but he struggled all night trying to keep guys like Bridges, Dinwiddie, and even Cam Johnson in front of him. He was blown by so many times. I wouldn't say he's a turnstile but he's not that much better, if at all, than THJ. Of course 1 game sample size and all, but trends say a 33 year old forward is due to wind down, and his extension isn't small. As Pistons guys go though he's a winning player. A rare bright spot on that team. He isn't worth a 1st by any means and the Pistons messed up by not trading him when they could last year.

DFS is still him. He hit a killer 3 to put the Pistons away. His defense is still pretty solid. I miss Dodo.

Cade is flawed but good. He's a number 2 guy. He's a very good one at that. If the Pistons could get an actual 1A guy, then they're in business. Its funny as I type this cause he has 41 points and scored 37 of them in the 2nd half, but it's weird watching him work. He can score 37 in a half, and then just turn the ball over on a key possession and not care. He's a meh defender. His ability to set guys up is also meh. He's supremely talented, but looking around the league it's hard to say he can be a top 5 guard in the coming years.

Stewart is a very physical wild defender. He had some great moments this game. The team had its best runs with him on the court. He can rebound, box out, and protect the rim. He also can just tackle someone out of nowhere in a key moment of the game and ruin momentum. Still he's a bright spot.

Alec Burks is a basketball terrorist. I swear to god he was trying to lose them the game. He pulled up this wild 3 with 30 seconds left that had zero chance to go in. It effectively iced the Pistons and ruined any chance of a comeback. Just when you thought it couldn't get worse he just threw the ball 10 feet into the stands on a kickout pass to really make sure the game was over. Why he was in the game I have no clue.

Monty Williams is trying to lose games. There's no other explanation. He randomly just subbed in Kevin Knox, and Ausar Thompson for 1 possession in the 4th where they were literally trying to mount a comeback that ended with a foul on Thompson. He then quickly subbed them out on the next FT and put in Alec Burks. Makes zero sense and ruined any chance of rhythm for his guys.

It takes a special team to lose 27 in a row. The Pistons are very special.

[MAVS-SLO]

If that's all it would cost (it isn't, that's Lakers propaganda, as per usual) I'd happily give up Hardy, Green and '27 for either of them. Happily. And I'm the "don't trade '27" guy. But, that kind of talent upgrade is hard to turn your back on.

Great post.

Does anyone know the rules? Is there any chance that we extend DJJ and don't make any moves until the summer? If he continues likes this, he will probably be worth MLE.

We aren't contenders this year, so priority should be to extend DJJ and try to make some trade in the summer, while we will have more picks to offer and Holmes and Kleber ase expiring will be worth much more.

[F Gump]

Great post.

Does anyone know the rules? Is there any chance that we extend DJJ and don't make any moves until the summer? If he continues likes this, he will probably be worth MLE.

We aren't contenders this year, so priority should be to extend DJJ and try to make some trade in the summer, while we will have more picks to offer and Holmes and Kleber ase expiring will be worth much more.

There is no way to extend (ie, lengthen the contract of) DJJ to avoid free agency. The Mavs only opportunity will be resign him as a FA.

Right now their commitments project to have them around the tax line, which only leaves room for the taxpayer MLE. That starts at 5.25M and seems way too little.

If they can trim enough 2024-25 payroll between now and July, they can offer the big MLE of 13M, which seems like it should be enough.

I would think the preferred way to do so would be a deadline trade of Holmes for an expiring contract. That would cost a pick, but so long as it isn't a first-rounder, it seems worth it assuming that could create enough room for DJJ.

I would prefer the expiring contract coming back for Holmes be a player who might also have some oncourt utility, such as Olynyk to be the backup center that's needed (he would be a stretch 5 type). His trade price should not be high. And depending on his salary price in the summer, maybe KO could be resigned too? The addition of Lindsey to the front office gives me some optimism that they could pull off something like this.

[Jason Terry]

There is no way to extend (ie, lengthen the contract of) DJJ to avoid free agency. The Mavs only opportunity will be resign him as a FA.

Right now their commitments project to have them around the tax line, which only leaves room for the taxpayer MLE. That starts at 5.25M and seems way too little.

If they can trim enough 2024-25 payroll between now and July, they can offer the big MLE of 13M, which seems like it should be enough.

I would think the preferred way to do so would be a deadline trade of Holmes for an expiring contract. That would cost a pick, but so long as it isn't a first-rounder, it seems worth it assuming that could create enough room for DJJ.

I would prefer the expiring contract coming back for Holmes be a player who might also have some oncourt utility, such as Olynyk to be the backup center that's needed (he would be a stretch 5 type). His trade price should not be high. And depending on his salary price in the summer, maybe KO could be resigned too? The addition of Lindsey to the front office gives me some optimism that they could pull off something like this.

Several contenders are interested in Olynyk. Rather than trading a couple 2nds i’d move Hardy

Holmes and Hardy for Olynyk 

Another way to think about it is: give up Hardy for: 1) Bad Holmes contract off books 2) Gain ability to re-sign DJJ to full MLE and 3) get a useable backup big for this year 

I think something like this would check enough boxes

Nick Richards is something i like which would be more of a long term solution at probably a bit higher price

Another would be Hardy for Drummond and a 2nd. Get the pick in to use later to move Holmes

[omahen]

I don't understand Olynik and Drummond ideas. Both are bad defenders and Mavs don't need a back-up center for offense. They need someone to be able to play defense. And in any case, I just don't believe Olynik, Drummond or any other back-up center makes us a contender.

I am not a fan of spending assets to dump salary and getting a back-up center. Especially not while Mavs have three back-up centers on multi-year deals and we haven't seen one of them play much. There will be time and perhaps better opportunities to lower salary (if needed) in the summer, no need to hurry.

DJJ has been great and his good play is necessary for this season result. But, is he really indispensable long term or just a stop gap solution in the starting unit until Mavs finally find that right player? If his role in the future is (up to) 20 mpg bench player, is he still so necessary to resign that we would be paying assets to give him full MLE? I would hate to lose him, but I am not sure I would move the mountains to keep him.

Perhaps lets look another way. Curry is not guaranteed for next season and might be a luxury we don't really need, especially if THJ stays on the team. In this light he is basically expiring salary and could also be used by any contender in need of bench shooting. Is there a team that could trade their back-up center for Curry? Bamba, Goga are players that could be considered. Another option would be Maxi. He played like trash but perhaps has more value as a stretch big than Holmes. Third option could be Green

I think number one task for Mavs is to set themselves for a trade for that missing 3-D wing, third best player on a team. Unlikely to happen at TDL, but should be number one goal for the summer. This means most of the thoughts should go towards Mavs positioning themselves to get that player in the summer. Assets and expiring contracts are crucial and Holmes will be expiring. Him and THJ along with young players and picks are likely necessary for that deal to happen. We worry about DJJ afterwards, imho.

[Winter]

I think number one task for Mavs is to set themselves for a trade for that missing 3-D wing, third best player on a team. Unlikely to happen at TDL, but should be number one goal for the summer. This means most of the thoughts should go towards Mavs positioning themselves to get that player in the summer. Assets and expiring contracts are crucial and Holmes will be expiring. Him and THJ along with young players and picks are likely necessary for that deal to happen. We worry about DJJ afterwards, imho.

Unless you have someone specifically in mind, the idea of waiting for the "missing 3-D wing" seems mythical to me. We talk about that every season as if there will be several to choose from. There never are. We currently have 2-3 adequate players that now fit that bill, and I would argue that interior defense and rim protection really trumps all our other needs at present.  And the availability of that type of player never seems out of reach. Like you, I don't think Drummond or Olynyk fit the team's profile all that well, but I think a defensive, rebounding big man is absolutely needed. I also think there may be more options for that than any wing player who is capable of being a difference maker.

[omahen]

Unless you have someone specifically in mind, the idea of waiting for the "missing 3-D wing" seems mythical to me. We talk about that every season as if there will be several to choose from. There never are. We currently have 2-3 adequate players that now fit that bill, and I would argue that interior defense and rim protection really trumps all our other needs at present.  And the availability of that type of player never seems out of reach. Like you, I don't think Drummond or Olynyk fit the team's profile all that well, but I think a defensive, rebounding big man is absolutely needed. I also think there may be more options for that than any wing player who is capable of being a difference maker.

I think Mavs need that 3-D guy. I don't agree they are not around or available. Good franchises get them and become contenders, the others don't. Guys like Grant, Siakam, OG and perhaps some more might become available. Get one of those while keeping the core and this team gets serious.

[SleepingHero]

Alec Burks is a basketball terrorist. I swear to god he was trying to lose them the game. He pulled up this wild 3 with 30 seconds left that had zero chance to go in. It effectively iced the Pistons and ruined any chance of a comeback. Just when you thought it couldn't get worse he just threw the ball 10 feet into the stands on a kickout pass to really make sure the game was over. Why he was in the game I have no clue.

Brandon Dent | @WoodwardSports #DetroitKoolAid (@DetroitKoolAid)
Monty Williams said the play was designed for Cade Cunningham to get a corner three look, but Burks took the shot instead.

Just to follow up on this. 

Yeah Burks is trying to throw games. He has to be. It also falls on Monty to even have Burks in the game in the first place.

[mvossman]

Unless you have someone specifically in mind, the idea of waiting for the "missing 3-D wing" seems mythical to me. We talk about that every season as if there will be several to choose from. There never are. We currently have 2-3 adequate players that now fit that bill, and I would argue that interior defense and rim protection really trumps all our other needs at present.  And the availability of that type of player never seems out of reach. Like you, I don't think Drummond or Olynyk fit the team's profile all that well, but I think a defensive, rebounding big man is absolutely needed. I also think there may be more options for that than any wing player who is capable of being a difference maker.

The difference is that we will actually have the assets to make something possible this coming offseason.  In the past it has always been dumpster diving.  This coming offseason we will have three firsts, young players and perfect sized expiring contracts to make such a deal.

[Winter]

I think Mavs need that 3-D guy. I don't agree they are not around or available. Good franchises get them and become contenders, the others don't. Guys like Grant, Siakam, OG and perhaps some more might become available. Get one of those while keeping the core and this team gets serious.

I feel like that comment is much too casual. I might be all for that if I thought it was that easy (or if a particular player was in discussion-mode with the Mavs FO). But I think holding on for the right 3-and-D wing sounds too vague. I don't think this franchise can just go and get one of those players. The cost makes it difficult, and sometimes prohibitive. Who are we giving up for Siakam or OG? If it's in a trade, we have to have the assets, and if it's in free agency, those players have to want to be here instead of Miami and LA just to mention a couple. 

The cost for a backup center though is not that difficult, and the need is important. We have discussed trade options that seems to be possible. But I wouldn't want this franchise to hold all its chips waiting for a wing in FA when we could get some interior defense in a trade. Especially given our track record in free agency.

Honestly, I feel like the Mavs Front Office has peddaled in neutral for most of Doncic's career - in a bad financial situation or some other plausible issue. They've struck out while other NBA teams who were bottom feeders when Luca was drafted have gone on to play in the conference finals. The new FO has come around lately, so I'm hoping things will be more creative and more active. Luca Doncic has a shelf life.

[mvossman]

I don't understand Olynik and Drummond ideas. Both are bad defenders and Mavs don't need a back-up center for offense. They need someone to be able to play defense. And in any case, I just don't believe Olynik, Drummond or any other back-up center makes us a contender.

I am not a fan of spending assets to dump salary and getting a back-up center. Especially not while Mavs have three back-up centers on multi-year deals and we haven't seen one of them play much. There will be time and perhaps better opportunities to lower salary (if needed) in the summer, no need to hurry.

DJJ has been great and his good play is necessary for this season result. But, is he really indispensable long term or just a stop gap solution in the starting unit until Mavs finally find that right player? If his role in the future is (up to) 20 mpg bench player, is he still so necessary to resign that we would be paying assets to give him full MLE? I would hate to lose him, but I am not sure I would move the mountains to keep him.

Perhaps lets look another way. Curry is not guaranteed for next season and might be a luxury we don't really need, especially if THJ stays on the team. In this light he is basically expiring salary and could also be used by any contender in need of bench shooting. Is there a team that could trade their back-up center for Curry? Bamba, Goga are players that could be considered. Another option would be Maxi. He played like trash but perhaps has more value as a stretch big than Holmes. Third option could be Green

I think number one task for Mavs is to set themselves for a trade for that missing 3-D wing, third best player on a team. Unlikely to happen at TDL, but should be number one goal for the summer. This means most of the thoughts should go towards Mavs positioning themselves to get that player in the summer. Assets and expiring contracts are crucial and Holmes will be expiring. Him and THJ along with young players and picks are likely necessary for that deal to happen. We worry about DJJ afterwards, imho.

I agree with everything here except DJJ.  He is our 5th best player right now, and if you bring in that wing and push him to the bench, he can still be a 30 minute a game rotational player as he is so versatile.  There will probably be an argument to be made to put DJJ in the starting lineup as Exum is more important to be on the court when one of Luka/Kyrie are off.  Either way, legit 3&D guys are not that easy to find and I would hate to lose him if we can avoid it.

[Scott41theMavs]

DJJ has been great and his good play is necessary for this season result. But, is he really indispensable long term or just a stop gap solution in the starting unit until Mavs finally find that right player? If his role in the future is (up to) 20 mpg bench player, is he still so necessary to resign that we would be paying assets to give him full MLE? I would hate to lose him, but I am not sure I would move the mountains to keep him.

I always thought of you as the ultimate Luka fan. But if you can't see what a perfect fit he and Luka are, I overestimated you on that score. He needs Luka, and Luka needs him. Hell, yes, you do what it takes to be able to offer him the full MLE this summer.

[chaparral]

Do you have to be under the LT next summer in order to get the full MLE? I'm sure there is a hard cap rule I'm not thinking about.
But if so, Mavs need to trade THJ for PJ Washington. PJW makes $693,000 less then THJ next season.

[F Gump]

I don't understand Olynik and Drummond ideas. Both are bad defenders and Mavs don't need a back-up center for offense. They need someone to be able to play defense. And in any case, I just don't believe Olynik, Drummond or any other back-up center makes us a contender.

I think Mavs need that 3-D guy. I don't agree they are not around or available. Good franchises get them and become contenders, the others don't. Guys like Grant, Siakam, OG and perhaps some more might become available. Get one of those while keeping the core and this team gets serious.

1 Re Olynyk, you are ignoring the situation. The point is that he has an expiring contract, and the Mavs could really use one who can be acquired for Holmes plus something small. Agree he's not the perfect center but tell me where you are getting a perfect center to be your backup, without paying an arm and a leg. Also, with Maxi so iffy all the time, having a stretch center has value. That's my view.

2 Re 3-and-D's, they need more than 1, but they have already been starting to stockpile guys who can help, perhaps. That's who they have in Green, DWill, Exum, and DJJ.

They tend to cost about the MLE. You ignore the reality that the Mavs MUST do something to turn somebody (preferably Holmes) into an expiring contract, if they are going to maintain or improve their 3-and-D corps in the summer. I offered my idea. What's yours?

The guys you mention aren't 3-and-D, but rather are high-profile starters. Their acquisition cost would be significant. But you would still want to add a 3-and-D at a small cost, if you can land that guy.

I think DJJ works, and has needed skills in other areas too. His ability to hit 3's is vastly more of a factor in Dallas than in his past, and hopefully will continue to improve. (In 2 years in CHI, he only had one game where he made more than 2 3's. In a 1/3 of a season in Dallas, he already has had 7 games with 3-or-more 3's.) But if you have a better one, you still can't get him without opening up MLE room (which they lack).

[F Gump]

Several contenders are interested in Olynyk. Rather than trading a couple 2nds i’d move Hardy

Holmes and Hardy for Olynyk

------

Another would be Hardy for Drummond and a 2nd. Get the pick in to use later to move Holmes

I know that we have heard "several contenders interested" in Olynyk. Supposedly. I take that as an Ainge declaration to try to drum up interest, frankly.

I have no issue with moving Hardy, but others may. I've never been all that impressed with his shoot-at-all-costs and no-defense profile, and not sure he wants to work to truly change. And for a guy who wants to shoot every time, he's not very good at it, which is cringe-worthy stuff.

I wouldn't give much of anything for Drummond. To me a pick is too expensive a price. He's always been a guy whose stats are more attractive than his actual play.

I'm really hoping for a way to turn Holmes into an expiring, and to perhaps get some short-term use from the expiring.

[MFFL]

I want to see if Maxi can fill the backup center role before the Mavs make a trade. If Maxi can fill that role then the team can go all in for one of the better 3&D wings.

[omahen]

1 Re Olynyk, you are ignoring the situation. The point is that he has an expiring contract, and the Mavs could really use one who can be acquired for Holmes plus something small. Agree he's not the perfect center but tell me where you are getting a perfect center to be your backup, without paying an arm and a leg. Also, with Maxi so iffy all the time, having a stretch center has value. That's my view.

2 Re 3-and-D's, they need more than 1, but they have already been starting to stockpile guys who can help, perhaps. That's who they have in Green, DWill, Exum, and DJJ.

They tend to cost about the MLE. You ignore the reality that the Mavs MUST do something to turn somebody (preferably Holmes) into an expiring contract, if they are going to maintain or improve their 3-and-D corps in the summer. I offered my idea. What's yours?

The guys you mention aren't 3-and-D, but rather are high-profile starters. Their acquisition cost would be significant. But you would still want to add a 3-and-D at a small cost, if you can land that guy.

I think DJJ works, and has needed skills in other areas too. His ability to hit 3's is vastly more of a factor in Dallas than in his past, and hopefully will continue to improve. (In 2 years in CHI, he only had one game where he made more than 2 3's. In a 1/3 of a season in Dallas, he already has had 7 games with 3-or-more 3's.) .

1. I don't get the back-up center, if there is no cheap solution. No need to rush trading Holmes and spending assets for expiring at TDL, especially not for a player who is not really a fit. They can always dump Holmes in the summer, if that is needed and will cost same (perhaps even less) as getting someone like Olynik. But there are also other ways to lower salaries, if needed. Or other guys that could be traded.

2. I agree DJJ is great and it would be bad to lose him. But, I think the guy I called a 3-D (meant two way wing, sorry for wrong expression) is needed way more. So, first priority is to get that guy. Than solve DJJ situation, if possible. 

3. " But if you have a better one, you still can't get him without opening up MLE room (which they lack)" DJJ and Exum are actual examples you can get such players for less than MLE  

Just to repeat again. While DJJ has been great, this team still needs talent to become serious contender. Just keeping the current team is not good enough. Unfortunately Mavs weren't able to lock DJJ longer term, so the risk of him going was always there.

[F Gump]

1. I don't get the back-up center, if there is no cheap solution. No need to rush trading Holmes and spending assets for expiring at TDL, especially not for a player who is not really a fit. They can always dump Holmes in the summer, if that is needed and will cost same (perhaps even less) as getting someone like Olynik. But there are also other ways to lower salaries, if needed. Or other guys that could be traded.

2. ... first priority is to get that guy. Than solve DJJ situation, if possible. 

3. " But if you have a better one, you still can't get him without opening up MLE room (which they lack)" DJJ and Exum are actual examples you can get such players for less than MLE  

1 We don't have any reason to think that Holmes can be moved into someone's cap space in the summer for just a 2nd, when almost everyone is fighting to increase their cap room. We just saw that this past summer, with McGee. And Holmes. They tried hard, and came up empty.

Using a 2nd is cheap. Not sure a needed salary dump of that size can ever get cheaper than a 2nd. (Not sure I follow your preference for trying to find someone else to move who is not Holmes. Huh? Why? That's certainly INCREASING the cost of such a move.)

2 You've tried to make this about DJJ vs Siakam (or the like), and it's not. Keeping the talent you already have does not preclude trying for a trade. And while looking for the trade (that may take years to find, let's be real), why let talent that fits the team walk away because you don't have MLE money? The name of the game is to keep building your talent base. Siakam may never be available. The price may take primarily player assets, not picks. Keep maximizing on multiple fronts.

3 If Olynyk doesn't excite you, that's fine, except then come up with a better expiring-contract idea for Holmes, rather than just the complaint that this one isn't ideal. You know that finding another DJJ/Exum out there next summer for cheap, sure that's great, except that's not a real answer because it's so unlikely. So what's your better idea that's cheaper than using Holmes and a 2nd for Olynyk? Offer Holmes and a swap of 2nds?! I don't object to someone better.

4 One other point that I think is relevant, which is that with the Hard Cap, it's crucial to get multiple useful rotation players locked up for the MLE or less. And in a situation like this, it looks to me like DJJ is that caliber of player and would be able to be kept at the MLE-or-below range. So to me, you don't want to let that window of opportunity be wasted.

[omahen]

1 We don't have any reason to think that Holmes can be moved into someone's cap space in the summer for just a 2nd, when almost everyone is fighting to increase their cap room. We just saw that this past summer, with McGee. And Holmes. They tried hard, and came up empty.

Using a 2nd is cheap. Not sure a needed salary dump of that size can ever get cheaper than a 2nd. (Not sure I follow your preference for trying to find someone else to move who is not Holmes. Huh? Why? That's certainly INCREASING the cost of such a move.)

2 You've tried to make this about DJJ vs Siakam (or the like), and it's not. Keeping the talent you already have does not preclude trying for a trade. And while looking for the trade (that may take years to find, let's be real), why let talent that fits the team walk away because you don't have MLE money? The name of the game is to keep building your talent base. Siakam may never be available. The price may take primarily player assets, not picks. Keep maximizing on multiple fronts.

3 If Olynyk doesn't excite you, that's fine, except then come up with a better expiring-contract idea for Holmes, rather than just the complaint that this one isn't ideal. You know that finding another DJJ/Exum out there next summer for cheap, sure that's great, except that's not a real answer because it's so unlikely. So what's your better idea that's cheaper than using Holmes and a 2nd for Olynyk? Offer Holmes and a swap of 2nds?! I don't object to someone better.

4 One other point that I think is relevant, which is that with the Hard Cap, it's crucial to get multiple useful rotation players locked up for the MLE or less. And in a situation like this, it looks to me like DJJ is that caliber of player and would be able to be kept at the MLE-or-below range. So to me, you don't want to let that window of opportunity be wasted.

1. Simply not true cap space is not there. Mavs didn't want to pay assets to dump McGee, not that there was no cap space around. I mean, our own Mavs were the ones that took Holmes in "cap space" (trade exception, same thing) for asset. Never a problem to dump expiring salary. Besides, you don't have any reason to be sure that DJJ will actually sign for MLE. You dump salary once you are sure he signs. There are so many other possibilities to reduce salary, so many other possible trades where reduced salary might be even just a "side effect"... I don't understand why you would need to be paying to dump salary 6 months in advance while you still don't know if you actually need the MLE or not...

2. I said many times, I wouldn't want to see DJJ walk. But, first priority is setting myself for that trade. Holmes salary might be very important for that. Once you see, the trade is not there (which can be even weeks before FA), you can still do all the cost cutting moves.

3. I am not interested in expiring salary, I thought I was clear about that. It will not be cheap making someone take Holmes and I don't think any of the players coming in would make that much of a difference for the Mavs result this season. I think Mavs need that one right move. Wasting assets on this minor moves will just ensure they stay where they are now. Fringe playoff team.

[F Gump]

We'll just have to agree to disagree whether using a 2nd to move off of Holmes is cheap or not, and whether getting that done via a deadline deal would be cheaper or not. And we'll also disagree on the pricing they faced when trying to dump McGee (I think if the cost had been merely a 2nd, they would have done it in a heartbeat, and that they were looking for that very sort of deal but couldn't find a taker).

I think the equation will be the same with Holmes as with McGee, ie he will NOT be a "useful filler" for some imagined trade, and if you can find a way to get him off your payroll, do it. They painted themselves into a corner with McGee, until they just ate his contract (but did so where it will handicap them for years). I don't want to see that happen again.

I would certainly PREFER a deadline move that lands a splashy upgrade, but I'm skeptical one is going to be out there. So I want to move Holmes' dead weight if we can. Find someone offering something good for THJ, Holmes, or both and I'm all in. But I'm not holding my breath.