Trade & FA 2023-24: OKC The Favorite For Nic Claxton Should He Leave BRK

[WildArkieBoy]

Two-way and THJ is hyperbole to be paired  in the same sentence.

Would they settle for 2 one-way wings?

[Grislam]

Round 2 they will play to win to be the champions

[SleepingHero]

Dalton Trigg (@dalton_trigg)
NBA Rumor: Dallas Mavs' Trade Interest in Atlanta Hawks' Clint Capela Has 'Faded' https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/trade-r...pela-faded via @IsaacBourne11

[KillerLeft]

Dalton Trigg (@dalton_trigg)
NBA Rumor: Dallas Mavs' Trade Interest in Atlanta Hawks' Clint Capela Has 'Faded' https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/trade-r...pela-faded via @IsaacBourne11

You think? 

I'm honestly not sure Lively isn't a better player right now, let alone after a year of experience.

[SleepingHero]

You think? 

I'm honestly not sure Lively isn't a better player right now, let alone after a year of experience.

Today, right now, Capela is a better player... but not by much. Certainly not enough to invest any serious assets into a Capela trade. 


Which I mean, wow, I never thought I'd say that. That's how good Lively has been. Mavs still need a backup center though. One that can theoretically replicate 75% of what Lively brings and play that same style. Capela can definitely do that in spades. 


And one has to wonder what is Lively's ceiling if he's already taking on the Capela's of the league in his rookie year. Mavs have to play a balance game at targeting a center that is good enough to fill in the gaps for Lively but not too good where he stifles his development. Nick Richards from Charlotte is a guy I've had my eye on for a bit.

[The Jom]

Lively’s best performances have been better than Capela’s best that I’ve seen. And I don’t mean just this year. Don’t trade for Capela unless he assures you he’s happy to come off the bench.

[DanSchwartzgan]

KillerLeft:
Not to mention that I disagree with the idea that Collins fits better here than THJ. 

I guess I'm the only one who's in love with Hardaway's fit as 6th man.  

---

Man, if O-Max can become even just the 10th-11th guy by the end of this season, this whole thing changes significantly for the better. 

THERE'S your Williams replacement. Just have to be patient.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________



I've been meaning to get back to this for a while.  BTW, thanks for removing the children from the board.  This place is shrinking, but I don't think it helps to keep people around who ruin the experience for everyone else.

I actually look at OMax as the DJJ replacement.  I get that OMax is bigger than a lot of 4's, but as we know from the DFS/GWill experiences, not all 4's (big wings if you prefer) can guard multiple positions.  DJJ and OMax seem to be able to.  GWill can't guard down but OMax probably can.  Also, I'm not sure I love the Lively/OMax combo as a 5/4 combo.

When I proposed a higher dollar center to compliment Lively, many said 'No, the need is at the 4.  But, when names come up, there isn't this universally accepted guy.  Here's a sampling of what gets said around here (not by you particularly):

Siakam - He's a freaking multi-time All-NBA player and people complain about his 3 point shot

Grant - He's too small

Markkanen - Not enough D (and no chance anyway)

Olynyk - slow old white dude who doesn't rebound

PJ Washington - Not really good

Isaac - Too injury prone

Kuzma - Plays absolutely no D

Patrick Williams - Too passive (a Josh Green clone)


As pertains to Hardaway.  THJ currently has a D-EPM of FOUR.  Yes, 4.  No number in front of it and no number behind it.  Just a 4 (Hell, Kyle Kuzma is a 7 and he SUCKS at D).  THJ's D-Rating is a career worst and team worst 120.  His DBPM is also a career worst and team worst -3.1.  So, it isn't like THJ is some stud we can't live without.  When Dallas has a D-Rating in a game better than 120 (when we are better for a game than the worst D in the league), we are 11-0.  So, I disagree with Omahen that small incremental improvements aren't valuable.  I think a few more boards with some more size and some D make us kind of scary in a wide open west.  If that can be accomplished without giving up 3 point shooting, all the better.

I don't have any super strong feelings about John Collins (other than I believe Ainge will flip him).  But, he's shooting very similarly to THJ from 3 at .383 (vs 384 for THJ) and .442 from the corner (THJ is .366 from the corner).  Collins is creating 40% of his made 2's this season and is .714 at the rim.  THJ creates 35% of his 2's and is .506 at the rim.  I don't agree the offense would suffer from a THJ/Collins swap.

But, what about Collins vs. the other choices at the four.  We have to bear in mind that there is reporting out there that we had interest in Naz Reid this summer.  We don't know if that was in addition to or instead of GWill, but Dallas was pursuing non-stars for this position (and got one in GWill).  It isn't like Naz Reid is some fantastic rebounder.  He doesn't shoot 3's as well as Collins and he's never been a plus player in On/Off.  Yet, he was more universally endorsed than almost all of the names above.

I'll exempt Siakam and Markkanen as they aren't attainable in an in-season deal.  But, when you compare Collins to PJ, Olynyk, Grant, Isaac, Kuzma and PWill, which of them has a better combination of rebounding and 3 point shooting and block rate?  I kind of like the theoretical skill set of a mobile four who hits 3's, but can also post up and drive some and can help in the paint a little when Lively is drawn to the perimeter.  Theoretically, that might be Maxi, except Maxi is a statue on offense and is rarely available.  The other thing I kind of like is Utah may be more interested in draft capital than our young players.  I like the depth chart that remains if it is just THJ and draft capital.  In fact, this is what I mean when I talk about pushing GWill to the bench:

Lively/(Maxi/Powell/Holmes)
Collins/GWill
DJJ/OMax (GWill/Green in the playoffs)
Kyrie/Green
Luka/Exum

Sorry, I think that fixes some things.  It isn't perfect (and we will never be satisfied that we have every spot adequately covered), but I wouldn't dismiss it either.  Are we sure we are getting better than this by waiting until this summer?

[KillerLeft]

Lots of good points above, especially the point about the 4 needing to take priority over the backup 5 (which I believe) and then the people claiming that not loving any option at the 4 (which is me, too). The irony is real.

I guess my rebuttal would be two-fold: 1) I feel strongly that O-Max is mostly 4, some 3 (and some 5), not the other way around. Very strongly.

2) I’m fine with a combination of Grant Williams, DJJ, O-Max and even a little Kleber when size is needed for now. I think Williams will grow into this role, maybe not to an ideal level, but better than the past few weeks. I think DJJ is a weapon there, and I feel the best option MIGHT be to wait for O-Max to be ready.

I don’t think there are ANY holes right now, at least when the team is healthy. Not for even one second have I entertained or will I entertain the idea that this is a championship team this season. So, the point of this season is to gain experience for the new core and to set the team up for the near future. I submit that (and this is a point I’ve seen you make before, Dan) we just don’t KNOW what this team is really going to need yet. There’s so much developing youth here at the same time right now, and we haven’t even seen them in a playoff series yet.

[omahen]

Are we sure we are getting better than this by waiting until this summer?

We are not sure, never can be.

But, imho, Collins doesn't make us a contender while blocking many possible paths forward towards getting that real one guy Mavs need. I think defensively Mavs need guys that can switch onto perimeter, not just block shots. I don't think team defense would improve significantly by having him instead of THJ. Offensively, he had huge problems in Atlanta with Capella (basically same guy as Lively) playing next to him. His role was getting more and more limited. Atlanta paid to let him walk because they were not able to construct a contender with him next to a weak defensive guard, good defensive center and two wings. I am far from optimistic things would look much different in Dallas.

I am pretty sure Collins blocks a lot (if not all) options to really make a contender level move in the summer. 

The only way I would consider Collins deal would be if a third team would be involved and paying assets to Utah. So a third team in need of a shooter gets THJ and sends expiring contract(s) and assets to Utah for Collins to Dallas.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Lots of good points above, especially the point about the 4 needing to take priority over the backup 5 (which I believe) and then the people claiming that not loving any option at the 4 (which is me, too). The irony is real.
 

2) I’m fine with a combination of Grant Williams, DJJ, O-Max and even a little Kleber when size is needed for now. I think Williams will grow into this role, maybe not to an ideal level, but better than the past few weeks. I think DJJ is a weapon there, and I feel the best option MIGHT be to wait for O-Max to be ready.

We just don’t KNOW what this team is really going to need yet. There’s so much developing youth here at the same time right now, and we haven’t even seen them in a playoff series yet.

Thanks for acknowledging the irony.  I would submit that if GWill was on a different team right now, he'd be just as quickly written off as Collins and the rest.  Maybe a backup 4/3, but I suspect you and everyone else here would say "I'm not giving up assets for Boston's backup (undersized) four".  I'm also not a fan of GWill starting next to a skinny center like Lively.  Nico's word "force" is a good one and GWill isn't that.

To the last point, the question is patience versus losing a year of Luka/Kyrie's limited window.  No team really looks dominant right now.  I suspect Dallas will do something to go for it if the opportunity arises.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I am pretty sure Collins blocks a lot (if not all) options to really make a contender level move in the summer. 

The only way I would consider Collins deal would be if a third team would be involved and paying assets to Utah. So a third team in need of a shooter gets THJ and sends expiring contract(s) and assets to Utah for Collins to Dallas.

DJJ may not be here next season.  If he's not, then you need to fill two holes.  I think filling one now and one then might be better than trying to fill two this summer.  We'll still have 25 and 31 and Holmes and kids even if we tie up the 2027 pick in some way.  I don't think 'blocks' is the right word.  Maybe 'hinders'?

I like the idea of involving a third team.  But, let's be clear.  I'm not advocating an unprotected 2027 for Collins.  There are so many ways of creating 'draft capital' with a team like Utah that has multiple picks in 2025 and 2027.  There is a world where we actually create more immediate value this summer by trading a lightly protected 2027 for the worst of Utah's three picks in 2025.  If a third team that wants THJ adds something to that, then Ainge turns space and a second into a nice haul (which was probably the point of Collins all along).

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

But, he's shooting very similarly to THJ from 3 at .383 (vs 384 for THJ) and .442 from the corner (THJ is .366 from the corner).  Collins is creating 40% of his made 2's this season and is .714 at the rim.  THJ creates 35% of his 2's and is .506 at the rim.  I don't agree the offense would suffer from a THJ/Collins swap.



I'll exempt Siakam and Markkanen as they aren't attainable in an in-season deal.  But, when you compare Collins to PJ, Olynyk, Grant, Isaac, Kuzma and PWill, which of them has a better combination of rebounding and 3 point shooting and block rate?

I do think it's important to flag that Hardaway is shooting more than twice as many threes as Collins (at 9.1 a game!) so those percentages aren't really apples to apples.  I also agree with Omahen that Collins' issues pairing with Capela may rear their head here, he would actually be a great Maxi replacement in the sense that he should probably be coming off the bench with this roster as a small ball 5 who could spread the floor while also being a great pick and roll partner and play some spot minutes at the 4 when we need more size but you can't commit that salary to that sort of role on a championship team.  Not necessarily disagreeing with anything you said, just wanted to add a little nitpicking is all.

To the second part that I quoted, you definitely chose the trio of stats that plays well for Collins but I would say that a really import aspect of whoever is going to play the 4 is perimeter defense and when you add that as a piece of criteria then you see each of what I consider the top 3 gettable options having one wart.  Grant's rebounding is rough these days, PJ Washington's 3 point shooting is way down and Collins' perimeter defense has question marks.  Knowing that is why I lean towards PJ Washington because he has the most reasonable contract and I also feel his 3 point shooting will tick up a couple percentage points as shown in previous seasons.

Just my two cents is all, agree with the overall assessment that Collins' wouldn't be the end of the world and would most likely make this team better from simply balancing out this roster but I also agree with Omahen that it may be a little too prohibitive moving forward for my taste.

[omahen]

I am very sure that the third best player on a team Mavs need is not a perfect player. He will have deficiencies, otherwise he would not be a third best player. It is also very possible, that he will be overpaid in terms of salary and/or assets needed to get him. Based on this, every guy brought up will have fans and opponents on the board.

My criteria for this guy:
- by far most important, he has to be an elite defender. This is the only hope to make defense in a team with Luka and Kyrie at least average. Collins, Markkanen, Olynik, PJ Washington and Kuzma doesn't meet this criteria, imho.
- he has to be capable offensively, more than just a spot up shooter. He will have deficiencies and a good coach will have to make everything work. Getting him enough touches (THJ shows there is room and shots for a third offensive guy) and make overall offense work

Based on this the only guys from Dans list that could meet the criteria listed would be Grant or Siakam. Williams is just meh, imho. Same for Isaac (huge gamble he can return to his 3rd best guy potential he showed before years of injuries hit him). OG is the only one left that would qualify and could meet criteria at this point.

Repeating again - Siakam and OG pretty much control where they want to be. Real contenders make deals like that happen. Fake ones are just watching those guys sign with real contenders.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

One other thing, re:Omax being the 4 of the future so just let him develop into it.

The great thing about the idea of Omax is that if he becomes the player we hope then he can be a prototypical 4 OR play alongside one. Dan mentioned that he looks more like a DJJ replacement because of his ability to defend down and I very much agree with that. If he develops it would be a HUGE win for this franchise because now you can look for talent upgrades for either wing position since OMax may be able to play both. I also am very interested in his future use as a small ball 5 at times.

[KillerLeft]

Thanks for acknowledging the irony.  I would submit that if GWill was on a different team right now, he'd be just as quickly written off as Collins and the rest.  Maybe a backup 4/3, but I suspect you and everyone else here would say "I'm not giving up assets for Boston's backup (undersized) four".  I'm also not a fan of GWill starting next to a skinny center like Lively.  Nico's word "force" is a good one and GWill isn't that.

To the last point, the question is patience versus losing a year of Luka/Kyrie's limited window.  No team really looks dominant right now.  I suspect Dallas will do something to go for it if the opportunity arises.

Written off for a target acquired through the use of an asset(s)? Yes! But, I bet I'd still be one of the more favorable reactors, even if I didn't like a proposed deal. I'm still a believer in his TYPE as a fit, and no amount of reminders of one word Harrison said in one interview will change that. I want a PJ Tucker clone in that role, as long as the 5 is a roller. Undersized (by your standards) is ok, too, as long as it comes with quick, fast and good shooting, while being physical enough (all by my standards). Either Williams can or can't be that player, but that's the TYPE I want, personally. 

Losing a year of Luka/Kyrie's window, since apparently anything but winning a championship qualifies as that in this conversation, is inevitable. No choice. I'd be smart and actually use the season to the maximum good that could come from it (as I see that, of course. It's my opinion). There literally isn't a deal that wins Dallas a championship this season. I'm all for deals that get them closer, but I'm not as sure as you seem to be that we even know what they should be buying.

[KillerLeft]

Offensively, he had huge problems in Atlanta with Capella (basically same guy as Lively) playing next to him. His role was getting more and more limited. Atlanta paid to let him walk because they were not able to construct a contender with him next to a weak defensive guard, good defensive center and two wings. I am far from optimistic things would look much different in Dallas.

This is what we have to acknowledge, yes!

Offensively, the system is BUILT around Lively and 1-5 pick-and-roll. That means the MOST IMPORTANT skill any 4 has to have is three-point shooting off of the catch. That is simply not a point that's requires debate. It's a fact. 

Now, is Williams shooting well enough? If he does start to shoot well enough, do the other parts of his game, such as defense, rebounding, attacking closeouts, moving the ball, whatever, are those things that require upgrade? These are all good questions, but the player MUST be a catch and shoot player, first and foremost. The expensive players with sexy names just aren't that, I'm sorry. It's a job for an under the radar, MLE type, LIKE WILLIAMS. They identified and acquired one, now it's time to hope he grows into this larger role. I, for one, can be patient enough to find out.

[omahen]

This is what we have to acknowledge, yes!

Offensively, the system is BUILT around Lively and 1-5 pick-and-roll. That means the MOST IMPORTANT skill any 4 has to have is three-point shooting off of the catch. That is simply not a point that's requires debate. It's a fact. 

Now, is Williams shooting well enough? If he does start to shoot well enough, do the other parts of his game, such as defense, rebounding, attacking closeouts, moving the ball, whatever, are those things that require upgrade? These are all good questions, but the player MUST be a catch and shoot player, first and foremost. The expensive players with sexy names just aren't that, I'm sorry. It's a job for an under the radar, MLE type, LIKE WILLIAMS. They identified and acquired one, now it's time to hope he grows into this larger role. I, for one, can be patient enough to find out.

I think 3pt shooting is great to have, but perhaps could be worked around if there are other offensive skills. Like Siakam, for example. One thing to note - this guy would be no.3 when both Luka and Kyrie play, but No.2 when any of them is on the bench, which is still some 20+ minutes, as they are stacked. Williams is not nearly capable of being that, he is just a spot up shooter. Lets never forget, this teams problem is defense. Offense is elite and has always been. I don't think one a bit weaker shooter would just create them huge problems offensively. My objection against Collins is 95 % his defense, only 5 % his offense. 

I have always stated that "I am" looking for a DJJ replacement in the starting unit, not GW one. Problem is, there are just not any guys available that would imho make sense. Smart or Murray (Atlanta) would be ideal, but neither is nearly likely to become available. Good wings that might be available are "unfortunately" mostly PF. But, a better PF could make it easier for Green to be inserted in the starting line-up.

[KillerLeft]

I think 3pt shooting is great to have, but perhaps could be worked around if there are other offensive skills. Like Siakam, for example. One thing to note - this guy would be no.3 when both Luka and Kyrie play, but No.2 when any of them is on the bench, which is still some 20+ minutes, as they are stacked. Williams is not nearly capable of being that, he is just a spot up shooter. Lets never forget, this teams problem is defense. Offense is elite and has always been. I don't think one a bit weaker shooter would just create them huge problems offensively. My objection against Collins is 95 % his defense, only 5 % his offense. 

I have always stated that "I am" looking for a DJJ replacement in the starting unit, not GW one. Problem is, there are just not any guys available that would imho make sense. Smart or Murray (Atlanta) would be ideal, but neither is nearly likely to become available. Good wings that might be available are "unfortunately" mostly PF. But, a better PF could make it easier for Green to be inserted in the starting line-up.

I agree with some (maybe most) of this, but it's almost a completely different conversation. 

I'm talking about Dan's mission to replace the 4, specifically. 

If you're moving on to "what about the 3/POA defender/third offensive creator" then I can get with that conversation, and I think it might be a better one. I guess I'd kind of stick up for Green (and even Exum) there, the same way I'm sticking up for Williams with Dan. I just haven't concluded any of those guys can't be what the Mavs need them to be yet.

[juanc]

I think I am the only one here that prefers to just play out this season or make a small trade(Like Jalen Mcdaniels or something like that). Why is that you ask? Right now the Mavs assets are a 2027 1st round pick and our young players. After this season ends we'll(most likely) have:
- 25, 27 and 31 1st round picks to trade
- THJ 16 mil and Holmes 12 mil expiring contracts

Also, Lively will have 1 season under his belt, so will Omax and Hardy will have 2. I know you guys are getting low(er) on Hardy, but I still think he deserves this season and one more season(I've got a feeling that the Mavs were forcing Hardy this offseason to become something that he isn't - a playmaker, maybe a full offseason on focusing at what he does best - scoring would bring the old Hardy back).

If we can get a defensive gamechanger ala OG Anunoby then great, make the deal, but I wouldn't waste our assets on some mediocre upgrade ala Collins,...

[DanSchwartzgan]

I am very sure that the third best player on a team Mavs need is not a perfect player. He will have deficiencies, otherwise he would not be a third best player. It is also very possible, that he will be overpaid in terms of salary and/or assets needed to get him. Based on this, every guy brought up will have fans and opponents on the board.

My criteria for this guy:
- by far most important, he has to be an elite defender. This is the only hope to make defense in a team with Luka and Kyrie at least average. Collins, Markkanen, Olynik, PJ Washington and Kuzma doesn't meet this criteria, imho.
- he has to be capable offensively, more than just a spot up shooter. He will have deficiencies and a good coach will have to make everything work. Getting him enough touches (THJ shows there is room and shots for a third offensive guy) and make overall offense work

Based on this the only guys from Dans list that could meet the criteria listed would be Grant or Siakam. Williams is just meh, imho. Same for Isaac (huge gamble he can return to his 3rd best guy potential he showed before years of injuries hit him). OG is the only one left that would qualify and could meet criteria at this point.

Repeating again - Siakam and OG pretty much control where they want to be. Real contenders make deals like that happen. Fake ones are just watching those guys sign with real contenders.

I think Lively will be the third best player, so we are really talking about #4 here.  No matter what you call it, I think they have to help with D (the opportunity for greatest improvement).  But, as Killer alludes, they have to also be able to hit a 3 on at least mediocre volume (not necessarily THJ volume though).   I do agree other skills like rebounding and attacking close-outs and moving the ball without too many TO's are also important (all of which Collins does).  

I was listening to a national podcast with a bit of an analytical bend over the weekend.  They were designing trades to help LAL and THJ's name came up (Hield-lite).  Dallas would get Rui and a 2nd.  I don't dare mention that one here as I can anticipate the discussion.  But, your 'must defend' stance made me think of Vanderbilt.  Most recognize him as a plus defender who is limited offensively.  His return has pretty well shut down Wood, so we know what the Lakers think of the value those two bring.  Is he good enough for the standard you are arguing for?