Trade & FA 2023-24: Paul George to Test Free Agency After No Contract Extension

[Scott41theMavs]

Everything here is of course total fiction. I would do that Irving deal immediately. Not the biggest Herro fan, but at least the move would fit really well with other things Mavs did this summer.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1008...t-contract

Did you see the Capela and Poeltl trades in there? Lay off the crack pipe, BR.

Too soon to trade Kyrie.

[omahen]

Did you see the Capela and Poeltl trades in there? Lay off the crack pipe, BR.

Too soon to trade Kyrie.

I did, and I think they represent a fairly realistic value of both centers. And of course, I don't think anyone believes Mavs would be considering trading Kyrie at this point.

Also from the piece:

1. The aim isn't to predict trades that will happen down the line—though a few could have legs outside of our hypothetical realm—but rather to offer a realistic look at the trade values of the players involved.

[ItsGoTime]

From the CBA thread:

• Up to $7.5 million in outgoing salary can bring back 200 percent plus $250,000
  
• $7,500,001 to $29 million will be padded by a flat $7.5 million
  
• Above $29 million will be limited to 125 percent plus $250,000
  

So I read that correctly right (that is exactly the rules I read)? Our $40M+ outgoing salary puts us in the 125% + $250k spot? I went on sportrac to calculate the exact salaries and matching number and came up with $10,485,937 with a hard cap of $10,533,402. So utilizing all of our matching number for those 3 players (or getting as close to it) is within the CBA rules.

[DanSchwartzgan]

So I read that correctly right (that is exactly the rules I read)? Our $40M+ outgoing salary puts us in the 125% + $250k spot? I went on sportrac to calculate the exact salaries and matching number and came up with $10,485,937 with a hard cap of $10,533,402. So utilizing all of our matching number for those 3 players (or getting as close to it) is within the CBA rules.

Almost….

Where it wouldn’t work is if you are doing a 3 for 1 for one returning player.  At 15 players (so with Morris), you have to add a $2mm minimum slot.  If you do a 3 for 1 at 14 players, you have to add two minimum slots.  You have to stay at 14 players after the trade.  It doesn’t mean there isn’t a deal out there, but the entire $10mm spread can’t go to one player if you are sending out three guys.

[ItsGoTime]

Everything here is of course total fiction. I would do that Irving deal immediately. Not the biggest Herro fan, but at least the move would fit really well with other things Mavs did this summer.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1008...t-contract

Combining the Atl and Mia deals into 1 and adding what I think fair value is:

To Dal: Cap, Herro, Jovic, Mia 1st
To Atl: Martin, Holmes, Mia 2nd, Dal 2nd
To Mia: Irving

I think Irving, by the time we will be able to trade him, will be worth that as he will play well here (I think). Martin is older, but IMO currently the better player (although by the time of this trade Green will be better value IMO as he will show well), Green's age makes us need to add a second maybe even 2 for the swap out.

[ItsGoTime]

Almost….

Where it wouldn’t work is if you are doing a 3 for 1 for one returning player.  At 15 players (so with Morris), you have to add a $2mm minimum slot.  If you do a 3 for 1 at 14 players, you have to add two minimum slots.  You have to stay at 14 players after the trade.  It doesn’t mean there isn’t a deal out there, but the entire $10mm spread can’t go to one player if you are sending out three guys.

Ok, ya, I was trying to take that into consideration when I looked at trades to match those parameters. There's one I got close on in lumping us in with the Mia/Por trade. Have yet to explore the LAC/Phi deal, but with the Mia deal it was a 4 for 3 deal that was only really adding the extra $1.7M salary to make the numbers match almost exactly. Take out that guy and the trade still works and we're like $1.8M under the 1st apron which means we still had to waive McGee to make it happen.

[IamDougieFresh]

Trading a first for Allen to be our Center but not being willing to trade Lively doesn’t make sense to me fellas. Moving Lively in a deal for a C who is already developed is definitely on my radar. We need to have that 3 first round pick trade in our back pocket.

[ItsGoTime]

The Mia/Por deal I came up with is (qualifier...this is only the salary portion of the trade, I know Mia and Dal needs to give up picks and some teams need to receive them, I didn't work that out):

To Atl: Holmes, Kleber and Martin
To Mia: THJ and Lillard
To Por: Ayton, Lowry and Goodwin
To Pho: Nurkic and Bogdanovich
To Dal: Herro, Capela and Wainright

Not sure I like Herro with Kyrie still on the team, but Kyrie might be a target at the TDL that we can extract value from. Adding Jabari Walker from Por was the added player to put us right at our number but he isn't necessary.

[ItsGoTime]

Trading a first for Allen to be our Center but not being willing to trade Lively doesn’t make sense to me fellas. Moving Lively in a deal for a C who is already developed is definitely on my radar. We need to have that 3 first round pick trade in our back pocket.

I think it's a good plan to trade the pick instead of Lively. If he develops very well, he's worth more than what that FRP will become. We can then, after we have won 2 championships, choose who we want to keep for the future. If we get Allen, there is very few players at that 3 pick mark that I would be interested in, esp considering we would be punting on now to maybe, hopefully get someone later (and still having 2 picks to do something later).

[mvossman]

Everything here is of course total fiction. I would do that Irving deal immediately. Not the biggest Herro fan, but at least the move would fit really well with other things Mavs did this summer.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1008...t-contract

I don't think there is anything on this list Mavs related that I would pull the trigger on.  The Poeltl deal is a joke.  Apparently you can send trash and two firsts to land one of Siakam or OG.  I doubt that's true, but I think the pendulum has swung the other way from a player asset cost perspective since the Gobert trade (who is already on this list as worst contract LOL).

[IamDougieFresh]

Dončić - Exum - Caruso
Irving - Hardy - Curry
Green - Jones Jr.
Williams - Prosper - Morris
Allen - Holmes - Powell

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Trading a first for Allen to be our Center but not being willing to trade Lively doesn’t make sense to me fellas. Moving Lively in a deal for a C who is already developed is definitely on my radar. We need to have that 3 first round pick trade in our back pocket.

Lively is a #12 pick.  The 2027 pick has to be 26th or higher for us to keep this Luka train rolling.  J.Allen gets us to 2026-27.  Lively gets us beyond.  Lively >>>>> 27FRP

[ItsGoTime]

Lively is a #12 pick.  The 2027 pick has to be 26th or higher for us to keep this Luka train rolling.  J.Allen gets us to 2026-27.  Lively gets us beyond.  Lively >>>>> 27FRP

Certainly that is the hope with Lively. Hope does not = reality sometimes, but time will tell on that.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Dončić - Exum - Caruso
Irving - Hardy - Curry
Green - Jones Jr.
Williams - Prosper - Morris
Allen - Holmes - Powell

Caruso and J.Green are somewhat redundant, with Caruso having more value as a ballhandler.  I would rather have Caruso/J.Allen/Lively than Caruso/J.Allen/J.Green.

DAL - J.Allen, Caruso
CLE - THJ, J.Green, 25SRP, 28SRP
CHI - 27FRP

Kyrie, Exum
Caruso, Hardy, Curry
Luka, DJJ, OMax
G.Williams, Maxi, Morris
J.Allen, Powell, Lively, Holmes

I really love that roster.  3 ball handling starters (huge flexibility in who comes out first, with Exum as your 4th).  3 defensive stud starters.  Hardy becomes your 3rd scorer.

[SamStetz]

https://twitter.com/CBAMavs/status/16976...68776?s=20

[DallasMaverick]

Certainly that is the hope with Lively. Hope does not = reality sometimes, but time will tell on that.

Lively is a lottery ticket right now. After a pretty good summer league showing, he’s just a little less of a lottery ticket than he was when they drafted him. But still a huge unknown.

In three years? We’ll see his capability, his trajectory much better. 

Sorta like Josh Green. We’ve seen his progression from year to year, and might still disagree on his ceiling, but he’s a legit NBA starter now. If we rewind to his draft, who among us wouldn’t be thrilled with what that #16 pick has become?

Perhaps we’ll feel the same way about Lively. Or maybe he’ll just be another Dominique Jones. Or Terrence Stansbury. No way to know for sure.

[ItsGoTime]

Lively is a lottery ticket right now. After a pretty good summer league showing, he’s just a little less of a lottery ticket than he was when they drafted him. But still a huge unknown.

In three years? We’ll see his capability, his trajectory much better. 

Sorta like Josh Green. We’ve seen his progression from year to year, and might still disagree on his ceiling, but he’s a legit NBA starter now. If we rewind to his draft, who among us wouldn’t be thrilled with what that #16 pick has become?

Perhaps we’ll feel the same way about Lively. Or maybe he’ll just be another Dominique Jones. Or Terrence Stansbury. No way to know for sure.

That’s exactly why I said what I said. If we get Allen now and win big while Lively is growing (or not) his wings, in 2-3 years we can make the decision on who we go forward with (and maybe both as Lively could at that point prove to be a great bench big).

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Talk of trading Lively is silly.

Talk of including Holmes in a trade without the 27FRP just as an offset to take Holmes is even sillier. There's no such thing as "salary match"; it's "salary and worth match".

Ranking our Trade Assets that Make Sense to Trade:
#1 J.Green (if he doesn't work into the future financial plans)
#2 27FRP
#3 THJ (worth about ~$12m/yr, leaving ~$4m in dead money)
#4 Our 2 SRPs

That's it. Everything else is untouchable (unless can bring back a huge catch), or a negative asset. Can we please agree upon this so that these same issues aren't debated each trade proposal? It's like Groundhog's Day.

[myconsumerclub]

Lively is not someone I would trade and I bet the MBT is even less likely to trade him now. If they felt he was such a huge liability then they would probably made a move to add more firepower at the 5. I see the moves we made and it tells me they like him a lot. Maybe they think he is a fast learner that can step out on the court soon enough that trading for an expensive 5 is JUST not worth the $$$ and it does not fit long term plans.

If you make a move to get someone later near the trade deadline then that is a lot more sensible because you first evaluate what you have before making use of what amounts to your last usable trade assets.

You need to see what our young guys are able to do but you also need to see how the prospects you are looking to trade for will do this season and they may suck and lose value making them more affordable.

There is a reason they are on the trade block and less playing time will lower their value to other teams if they are benched for others. That means time works for us. No need to get in a hurry to trade off younger assets for older ones till you at least see what they are looking like this season. Drop offs happen and older centers drop off in the 30's especially smaller centers. I would be patient when it comes to developing players who can still improve.

1 through 3 we are pretty solid. PF is okay and C could be solid if Lively can transition to being a real NBA center fast enough that we avoid needing to take on someone else. Holmes and Kleber can play backup along with Powell so using Lively as the starter ASAP is what we are forced into by taking this approach. If we can win at a decent clip using a small ball 5 then we can bring DL along slow and not suffer to much. If he bulks up and starts to show he is a good fit then we have what we need and that final salary space can be used on something else other than the older 5 everyone else is saying we need to invest in.

Playoff rotations are 8 or 9 players deep.

Assuming the young guys all jump into the rotation this is what our play off rotation could look like.

Luka
Irving
Green
OMax
Lively
Grant
Hardy
Kleber

* If Exum works out then he is in there as a 3rd PG / ball handler
* If DJJ is a keeper he will need to hit 3's otherwise he is benched
* Powell plays only if Lively sucks a lot and if that is happening late in the season we are screwed
* Seth is old and a situational shooter off the bench when we need a 3 so not really someone who we need to play huge meaningful minutes
* Holmes is a ???? till he proves himself so not even worth speculating about since obviously we will have evaluated him by the play offs.

THJ is still a good player and an excellent option to score off the bench. If a team offers us a decent package for his low salary then we can take it and be better off but that need at center may be a lot less of a problem by the TDL if we see production from Lively and Holmes working out. Kleber and his injury problem means baby steps and saving him for the play offs are the strategy we use early on, unless some team wants him included in a trade for a guy we would prefer. Teams were willing to sign Powell and maybe that is indicative of him having trade value now as well, especially with his lower cost contract. Outside of Lively, Holmes is the biggest ???. We can speculate all we want but nobody knows what we have yet.

I have high hopes for him and Lively and our season is really riding on them to secure success moving forward.

Only other option is trading off younger talent for a 5 and seeing what they can fetch or and this 2nd option. I would prefer to add size at the 5 in the next draft with a plethora of 5's who could slip into the 2nd. Our 2 2nds should allow us to move up in the 2nd and take our pick of several candidates.

If we can see production from Lively in his rookie season another real 5 is still needed to back him up and we can afford to develop that rookie understudy instead of over spending for a veteran when we know that Lively is more capable.

That move allows us to use Kleber and Holmes as a PF instead of a 5 and so we improve that position as well.

I am assuming we can find another center in next years draft because if what I hear is true it is filled with top rated center prospects. Zach Edey is still there waiting to get taken in the 2nd round so I am hopeful we make that move since he could be a stud that forces other teams to play big like SAN and Wemby will be doing. UTA is deep with bigs that could impose size domination on others once they acquire better talent at the guard positions. Lots of teams are developing bigs with size advantages so we need to be pre-emptive in the draft to pick someone that can lay a body on them.

Those 2 positions 4 and 5 are the ones that cause us to lose sleep the most we are dominant at the 1 -2 3 is solid enough and improving as the 4 looks almost decent enough with Kleber Holmes Grant OMax and DJJ and 3 has a variety of 3's we can use.

The key to winning IMHO is defending well and having the size to shut down other teams who have scoring bigs we could face later on in the play offs. Then stretching it out to hit 3's relentlessly if the talent is there as it seems to be now. A guy like Lively can enjoy a lot of space to roam inside with our 3 point shooters stretching everyone out away from the basket. Even a rookie not known for scoring could develop a nice stat line with the talent we have passing to him and his speed and mobility being far more potent than most guys his size it may be a lively coming out party this season.

SF: Grant and OMax could be the future at SF and if Green is able to guard other SF's then we have a lot of talent there to build around as well. OMax should be making his mark this year and he is the better option at the 3 for long term star potential especially once his 3 develops more fully. Green needs to improve his shooting and Hardy as well they will be competing with each other for minutes at the 2 if OMax DJJ and Grant all want minutes at the 3 and Exum is more developed as a PG than they are to be our 3rd ball handler but I can see Kidd letting Hardy try to bring it up some with Exum there to confuse the defense when both our stars rest. Handles are nice enough for those 2 if you ask me and if Hardy can develop a better defensive game that will be the key to his future.

Such depth could cause team mates to clash over wanting more minutes and they need to play everyone on this team so we know who and what we have. As it settles down we may see guys wanting to be traded so they can play. Vets used to minutes won't want rookies getting PT ahead of them and certainly Lively is already ahead of the other 5's. OMax is a well rounded player who needs to get aggressive and show he has what it takes right away. If his 3 continues to impress as it did in college I expect the 2 rooks to start sooner than later.

Grant over Green is the battle I would see being interesting and that is a situational thing depending on matchups given Green is a better defender against guards and Grant is better on bigs.

Oh well September will be over soon enough.

[F Gump]

Holmes and Kleber can play backup along with Powell so using Lively as the starter ASAP is what we are forced into by taking this approach. 
.   .   .   .   .
* Powell plays only if Lively sucks a lot and if that is happening late in the season we are screwed
.   .   .   .   .
I have high hopes for him and Lively and our season is really riding on them to secure success moving forward.
.   .   .   .   . 
That move allows us to use Kleber and Holmes as a PF instead of a 5 and so we improve that position as well.
.   .   .   .   .
I am assuming we can find another center in next years draft because if what I hear is true it is filled with top rated center prospects. Zach Edey is still there waiting to get taken in the 2nd round so    

I don't buy any of that on Lively or the center position.

Lively has some tools, some athletic gifts. But I think the odds are small for him to get playing time early in the season of any significance, because defense (which is his strength) is a team issue, and he has neither NBA experience nor Mavs experience to have a feel for how to contribute in that way.

The Mavs will figure out what player they think will give them the best play at C, and that will be their starter. Even if players like Powell, Holmes, and Kleber might not be what they would like, they will still almost certainly be better than Lively as we begin the season. Lively will get spot minutes to help him learn, but I expect it will be a process and take months or even more than a year. That's NBA normal.

As for drafting ANOTHER center next season, that seems way unlikely. If Lively is the answer at C once he gets some learning via minutes gradually, what would be the point of drafting another one to take minutes away from Lively? And just as important, the Mavs have no picks next summer.