Trade & FA 2023-24: Paul George to Test Free Agency After No Contract Extension

[Chicagojk]

David Aldridge from the Athletic has the Mavs with the 7th best offseason. Teams he ranks better than Dallas are Lakers, Pacers, Celtics, suns, Cavs and Spurs.

[surfpuckmd]

Give me 10 points/4 assists and +6 every night for the Mav's.  I'm hopeful he can secure more than the 'emergency' role and be the third PG.  This idea that he's a wing and not a PG doesn't look the least bit true based on what I've seen in his games with Australia.  He may be exactly what we need next to either Hardy or Curry.

The question I have about Exum is can he and Hardy or he and Curry run the show successfully without Luka or Kyrie for a few minutes.  It would be nice to have lineups that work without one of them so we wouldn't have to necessarily stagger Luka and Kyrie as much.

They'll try some non-Luka, non-Kyrie lineups in preseason and we'll see how that works against NBA players.   I think Exum will mostly be a 3 and D wing for us.  I think he may also become our emergency point guard if Kyrie or Luka are unavailable.   That would make him a very valuable player for us.  I think success would be if he finishes 9th-11th in minutes played this year.  He's a big upgrade over Justin Holiday.  I really respect how much adversity he's overcome and how much he's improved over the past few years.  I think Jason Kidd might actually help him further develop his point guard skills as well.  I am really liking this signing right now.

---

David Aldridge from the Athletic has the Mavs with the 7th best offseason.  Teams he ranks better than Dallas are Lakers, Pacers, Celtics, suns,  Cavs and Spurs.

I think we should be higher.  I actually think the Cavs had one of the worst off-seasons.  I don't really love the Bruce Brown signing for the Pacers either so I think we did better than them.  I also don't see that the Celtics improved.  I think we should be fourth.

[mvossman]

Dante Exum looked good against Finland.  Giddey got into foul trouble in the third and Exum took over at point and seemed capable.  He was able to get to the rim multiple times.  He hit both his threes and the form looked nice.  He scored 10 points on 5 shots.   Had a nice assist on a drive and dish.  He might serve as our emergency third point guard.  I think he’ll be in our rotation and we’ll be grateful to have a team option on him next offseason.

I think he is the plan for third point guard.  I think the hope is that they can get away with a Exum/Hardy combo where Exum plays generic PG and point of attack defense and Hardy generates a lot of the offense as 6th man type.  Its a lot better plan than what we had the beginning of last season.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I think he is the plan for third point guard.  I think the hope is that they can get away with a Exum/Hardy combo where Exum plays generic PG and point of attack defense and Hardy generates a lot of the offense as 6th man type.  Its a lot better plan than what we had the beginning of last season.

So, scoot Exum to the second column from the third....

Holmes  Lively    Powell
GWill     Maxi      DJJ/Morris
Green    THJ       OMax
Luka      Hardy    Curry
Irving    Exum     <<<<

[Chicagojk]

So, scoot Exum to the second column from the third....

Holmes  Lively    Powell
GWill     Maxi      DJJ/Morris
Green    THJ       OMax
Luka      Hardy    Curry
Irving    Exum     <<<<

That would be great if Exum earned playing time.   His skillset seems like a nice fit and something we need.

The backup to Luka and Green (if he starts) is tricky though.   Really not enough time when everyone is healthy for THJ, Hardy and Curry.   Seems like a pretty tight fit for even two guys.   Hardaway is currently probably the best of the three now, Curry provides a valuable skill and Hardy is the future.    One thing that was pretty eye opening to me was Luka looking for Hardy as the season went on.   I would not be happy if Hardy loses his spot.    But it is really tricky with those three.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I know it's not what the Australian team is asking of him, but would love to see J.Green put up more FGA. I'm starting to think he is who he is on offense.

[F Gump]

That is not 100% correct. The payment to McGee is exactly the same. But the different cap acounting means less money to spend in future years and this is the money that could be saved (by not giving it to other players)

What I said was 100% correct. Which was - Once McGee is waived, whether he is stretched or not does not change how much Cuban pays McGee, nor when he pays McGee. So Cuban's payout to McGee won't be a factor in deciding whether to stretch the contract.

Obviously the choice to stretch (or not) changes the cap accounting, and one choice or another may provide less tax, or more flexibility in roster-building, than the other. That's what they must be weighing now, and we have been discussing here. Apparently the 3rd choice - to pay someone else to take him and waive him - has proven to be unavailable.

[KillerLeft]

It's going to be so interesting to see how the rotation works. I have a feeling there will be at least 2-3 months of outright experimentation, but when the dust clears, I find it highly unlikely that EVERYONE'S pet new/young guy will be ensconced in a regular role.

For example, it seems clear to me that Green is super important to the current roster construction, and I've basically assumed they're planning for him to have a sizable role. But, it seems like there are still doubters who don't even think of him as a playable piece.

Others are penciling Hardy in as basically the third guard, and while I am still REALLY high on him as a prospect, I would be shocked if he's higher in the rotation than THJ or Curry, and I'm starting to wonder if even Exum might have the edge over him, short term.

I think O-Max is ready now (more ready than Hardy, even) and others aren't even listing him amongst rotation possibilities.

Some think the center position is Holmes' to lose, and that Powell will be a "break glass in case of emergency" type, while I have no trouble imagining that something closer to the opposite will be true.

It's all fascinating, imho. I'm sure we'll each find at least one thing puzzling about how it turns out.

[KillerLeft]

For the Hardy people, in particular, here's what I see:

1) Lots of hype around him and how excited they are about him this season.

2) They ask him to play PG during summer league, while not really having another option at 3rd PG.

3) He didn't come close to impressing as a PG during summer league. Pretty disappointing, actually.

4) They respond by signing Exum.

Personally, I believe there's a train of causality there. I could be WAY wrong, but I feel like those events are linked.

I think they feel Hardy needs a little functionality as a PG to break in, and I kind of don't blame them. He isn't really a PG (yet) but he's also not an off-ball guy. Almost everything he brings to the table involves him having the ball. To me, it's logical to expect the guy with the ball in his hands to be able to set others up, not just himself. That's not to say he needs to be Chris Paul (he never, ever will be) but on this team, he'll probably need to learn how to run a pick and roll. Like JET did, for example. Ask yourself, do you really believe that on a team with Luka and Kyrie Irving, they are planning to slice off parts of the game every night and say "everyone get out of the way while Hardy plays iso ball"??? I don't imagine that would go over very well.

On the other hand, if the plan is for him to play off-ball, then both THJ and Curry are VASTLY superior to him at the moment, and probably for the next couple of seasons.

[Scott41theMavs]

It's going to be so interesting to see how the rotation works. I have a feeling there will be at least 2-3 months of outright experimentation, but when the dust clears, I find it highly unlikely that EVERYONE'S pet new/young guy will be ensconced in a regular role.

For example, it seems clear to me that Green is super important to the current roster construction, and I've basically assumed they're planning for him to have a sizable role. But, it seems like there are still doubters who don't even think of him as a playable piece.

Others are penciling Hardy in as basically the third guard, and while I am still REALLY high on him as a prospect, I would be shocked if he's higher in the rotation than THJ or Curry, and I'm starting to wonder if even Exum might have the edge over him, short term.

I think O-Max is ready now (more ready than Hardy, even) and others aren't even listing him amongst rotation possibilities.

Some think the center position is Holmes' to lose, and that Powell will be a "break glass in case of emergency" type, while I have no trouble imagining that something closer to the opposite will be true.

It's all fascinating, imho. I'm sure we'll each find at least one thing puzzling about how it turns out.

Seems like we should all lay out our predictions. THJ as a starter next to Kyrie and Luka is defensive seppuku to start the game, which is why I think they won't try it.

I think you're right and that the season will begin with lots of experimentation. Here's my prediction for January-April. Note that my positional minutes add up to more than 48, because I am factoring in injury absences for Kyrie, Luka, Maxi, and others:

PG: Kyrie 35 Luka 10 Exum 10
SG: Luka 25 Hardy 18 Curry 10 Exum 5
SF: Green 20 THJ 20 OMax 5 GW 5
PF: GW 25 Maxi 10 OMax 13 DJJ 8
C: Holmes 20 DP 20 Lively 15 Maxi 5

Player totals:
Luka - 35
Kyrie - 35
GW - 30
Green - 20
THJ - 20
Holmes - 20
DP - 20 (dammit)
Hardy - 18
OMax - 18
Lively - 15
Exum - 15
Maxi - 15
Curry - 10
DJJ - 8

I don't think Morris will be here. If he is and he gets minutes, it means that both OMax and DJJ are unplayable hot garbage, even if/when Maxi is injured. I don't think OMax will be garbage at all.

I'm sure that the "low" minutes for Hardy will cause some crying from his fan boys. It's easy - he doesn't play point guard, and is a significant defensive liability.

[Scott41theMavs]

For the Hardy people, in particular, here's what I see:

1) Lots of hype around him and how excited they are about him this season.

2) They ask him to play PG during summer league, while not really having another option at 3rd PG.

3) He didn't come close to impressing as a PG during summer league. Pretty disappointing, actually.

4) They respond by signing Exum.

Personally, I believe there's a train of causality there. I could be WAY wrong, but I feel like those events are linked.

I think they feel Hardy needs a little functionality as a PG to break in, and I kind of don't blame them. He isn't really a PG (yet) but he's also not an off-ball guy. Almost everything he brings to the table involves him having the ball. To me, it's logical to expect the guy with the ball in his hands to be able to set others up, not just himself. That's not to say he needs to be Chris Paul (he never, ever will be) but on this team, he'll probably need to learn how to run a pick and roll. Like JET did, for example. Ask yourself, do you really believe that on a team with Luka and Kyrie Irving, they are planning to slice off parts of the game every night and say "everyone get out of the way while Hardy plays iso ball"??? I don't imagine that would go over very well.

On the other hand, if the plan is for him to play off-ball, then both THJ and Curry are VASTLY superior to him at the moment, and probably for the next couple of seasons.

You beat me to it.

[Jym]

For the Hardy people, in particular, here's what I see:

1) Lots of hype around him and how excited they are about him this season.

2) They ask him to play PG during summer league, while not really having another option at 3rd PG.

3) He didn't come close to impressing as a PG during summer league. Pretty disappointing, actually.

4) They respond by signing Exum.

Personally, I believe there's a train of causality there. I could be WAY wrong, but I feel like those events are linked.

I think they feel Hardy needs a little functionality as a PG to break in, and I kind of don't blame them. He isn't really a PG (yet) but he's also not an off-ball guy. Almost everything he brings to the table involves him having the ball. To me, it's logical to expect the guy with the ball in his hands to be able to set others up, not just himself. That's not to say he needs to be Chris Paul (he never, ever will be) but on this team, he'll probably need to learn how to run a pick and roll. Like JET did, for example. Ask yourself, do you really believe that on a team with Luka and Kyrie Irving, they are planning to slice off parts of the game every night and say "everyone get out of the way while Hardy plays iso ball"??? I don't imagine that would go over very well.

On the other hand, if the plan is for him to play off-ball, then both THJ and Curry are VASTLY superior to him at the moment, and probably for the next couple of seasons.

I don't want to just throw him away but I'd be on board using him to get a starting level center for the next 2 years 
Just having a hard time seeing a major role for him as long as Luka and Kyrie are healthy and on the court

[ItsGoTime]

I don't want to just throw him away but I'd be on board using him to get a starting level center for the next 2 years 
Just having a hard time seeing a major role for him as long as Luka and Kyrie are healthy and on the court

If he is outgoing, that’s the point where I’m fine with keeping THJ. I know a lot of you guys are good with him basically being the backup 3, I myself HATE that. I think that position HAS to be so good and versatile on defense (OMax) that I want to tear out my eyes every time someone puts him there in our rotation. 

However, clearing out room for him to be the backup SG while getting a C that will be the stopgap that we truly need? I’ve been saying I’d rather use the 27 first in a Capela deal, but if we keep the pick and Hardy is outgoing, I’d want one of their lesser prospects back (cause I think Hardy is a very high end prospect), but I wouldn’t be fully opposed to it.

[Moviemavguy]

I really can't see them giving up on Hardy already for a stop gap starting center. Green makes more sense.

But actually, Maxi makes the most sense and yes, you're probably gonna have to part with 2027 pick.

Hardy is a risk either way, but you can't give up a talent like that on that contract willy nilly.

[The Jom]

David Aldridge from the Athletic has the Mavs with the 7th best offseason.  Teams he ranks better than Dallas are Lakers, Pacers, Celtics, suns,  Cavs and Spurs.

Somebody thinks the Celtics had a GOOD offseason??? Really???

[surfpuckmd]

If he is outgoing, that’s the point where I’m fine with keeping THJ. I know a lot of you guys are good with him basically being the backup 3, I myself HATE that. I think that position HAS to be so good and versatile on defense (OMax) that I want to tear out my eyes every time someone puts him there in our rotation. 

However, clearing out room for him to be the backup SG while getting a C that will be the stopgap that we truly need? I’ve been saying I’d rather use the 27 first in a Capela deal, but if we keep the pick and Hardy is outgoing, I’d want one of their lesser prospects back (cause I think Hardy is a very high end prospect), but I wouldn’t be fully opposed to it.

THJ pairs nicely with Luka and another guard because of Luka's size.  In those lineups, you can call THJ the 2 or the 3- it doesn't really matter.   His shooting fits well with Luka on offense and his THJ's team defense is underrated.  I think the more important thing is that there are usually two ballhandlers on the floor with THJ.   Tim doesn't do well when he tries to create.

[Jym]

Somebody thinks the Celtics had a GOOD offseason??? Really???

Yeah even with KP fully healthy, I still would hate the moves if I was a Celtics fan

They needed to open up more time for Robert Williams as the solo big with Tatum at PF to unlock their full potential

[surfpuckmd]

For the Hardy people, in particular, here's what I see:

1) Lots of hype around him and how excited they are about him this season.

2) They ask him to play PG during summer league, while not really having another option at 3rd PG.

3) He didn't come close to impressing as a PG during summer league. Pretty disappointing, actually.

4) They respond by signing Exum.

Personally, I believe there's a train of causality there. I could be WAY wrong, but I feel like those events are linked.

I think they feel Hardy needs a little functionality as a PG to break in, and I kind of don't blame them. He isn't really a PG (yet) but he's also not an off-ball guy. Almost everything he brings to the table involves him having the ball. To me, it's logical to expect the guy with the ball in his hands to be able to set others up, not just himself. That's not to say he needs to be Chris Paul (he never, ever will be) but on this team, he'll probably need to learn how to run a pick and roll. Like JET did, for example. Ask yourself, do you really believe that on a team with Luka and Kyrie Irving, they are planning to slice off parts of the game every night and say "everyone get out of the way while Hardy plays iso ball"??? I don't imagine that would go over very well.

On the other hand, if the plan is for him to play off-ball, then both THJ and Curry are VASTLY superior to him at the moment, and probably for the next couple of seasons.

Jaden Hardy will mostly play off-ball with either Kyrie or Luka on the floor as the primary ball handler.  Jaden's 3-point percentage last season was almost exactly the same as Seth Curry's.  His ability to handle the ball and get to the rim gives us some offensive versatility that Curry does not.  I don't think they want him dominating the ball like Luka does.  I think they can let him iso periodically though.  I don't think we want Luka having to create every single possession while Kyrie is off the floor.  

Jaden is also bigger and more athletic than Curry-  with experience, he should be less of a defensive liability.  Admittedly, his defense was bad last season but so was Curry's.  Jaden is likely to improve while Seth's is likely to continue to decline as he is both small and lacks athleticism (and 33 years old). 

I don't think Jaden's poor showing at PG in summer league means anything other than he won't be our 3rd PG this coming season.

We have some good data from the end of last season where Jaden Hardy looked great on offense while playing against actual NBA competition.

His numbers post-All Star break were as follows:

20.1 mpg     12.8 ppg       45.9 percent from 3 (on 5 attempts per game)       2.7 rpg    2.4 apg

That's pretty awesome for a rookie.  That's a young player who deserves continue playing time over Seth Curry.

I hope they do try to develop his pick and roll game.  I think with experience, he'll be better than Seth Curry at that as well.

I don't actually know what Jason Kidd will do this coming season.  It's possible that he will play Seth Curry more than Jaden Hardy.  I think that would be a terrible decision though.  Jaden may disappoint but the player we saw post-All Star break looked like a potential future star.  I hope Jason Kidd was paying attention.

As for THJ, I think that will be a tougher decision. THJ is a decent defender so that calculus is more complicated. I anticipate THJ playing more or similar minutes to Jaden this season.

[KillerLeft]

If he is outgoing, that’s the point where I’m fine with keeping THJ. I know a lot of you guys are good with him basically being the backup 3, I myself HATE that. I think that position HAS to be so good and versatile on defense (OMax) that I want to tear out my eyes every time someone puts him there in our rotation. 

However, clearing out room for him to be the backup SG while getting a C that will be the stopgap that we truly need? I’ve been saying I’d rather use the 27 first in a Capela deal, but if we keep the pick and Hardy is outgoing, I’d want one of their lesser prospects back (cause I think Hardy is a very high end prospect), but I wouldn’t be fully opposed to it.

The good thing about having Williams/DJJ AND O-Max is that they have the option of playing THJ at the 3 or the 2. I agree he's more 2 than 3, but there's also Luka's odd fit to consider, and against some matchups you want/need to be a little smaller/faster. 

Imo, the goal in the NBA should be to assemble your top 6-8 guys in such a way where you can completely change the way the team plays by changing out one player, moving all of the others around, but still maintaining chemistry. The 2011 team had that, for sure. The moves they made this summer give me hope because they seem like versatility (but not in a dumb, end of the bench "specialist" sort of way) was an architectural consideration. 

Long story short: I think that if Hardaway is here this season, he'll be able to play his game while he's out there, and the team will be in position to benefit from it rather than have us all wishing he could do things he can't do.

[KillerLeft]

Jaden Hardy will mostly play off-ball with either Kyrie or Luka on the floor as the primary ball handler.  Jaden's 3-point percentage last season was almost exactly the same as Seth Curry's.  His ability to handle the ball and get to the rim gives us some offensive versatility that Curry does not.  I don't think they want him dominating the ball like Luka does.  I think they can let him iso periodically though.  I don't think we want Luka having to create every single possession while Kyrie is off the floor.  

Jaden is also bigger and more athletic than Curry-  with experience, he should be less of a defensive liability.  Admittedly, his defense was bad last season but so was Curry's.  Jaden is likely to improve while Seth's is likely to continue to decline as he is both small and lacks athleticism (and 33 years old). 

I don't think Jaden's poor showing at PG in summer league means anything other than he won't be our 3rd PG this coming season.

We have some good data from the end of last season where Jaden Hardy looked great on offense while playing against actual NBA competition.

His numbers post-All Star break were as follows:

20.1 mpg     12.8 ppg       45.9 percent from 3 (on 5 attempts per game)       2.7 rpg    2.4 apg

That's pretty awesome for a rookie.  That's a young player who deserves continue playing time over Seth Curry.

I hope they do try to develop his pick and roll game.  I think with experience, he'll be better than Seth Curry at that as well.

I don't actually know what Jason Kidd will do this coming season.  It's possible that he will play Seth Curry more than Jaden Hardy.  I think that would be a terrible decision though.  Jaden may disappoint but the player we saw post-All Star break looked like a potential future star.  I hope Jason Kidd was paying attention.

As for THJ, I think that will be a tougher decision.  THJ is a decent defender so that calculus is more complicated.  I anticipate THJ playing more or similar minutes to Jaden this season.

I don't really disagree with much of this, and I don't have the time or will to argue right now, either. But, suffice it to say, I think this is kind of surface level analysis and maybe a little too confident of a prediction. It might work out how you expect. Very possible.  But, I'll say this again: what makes Hardy seem special is the plethora of solutions he has to create shots for himself in 1-on-1 situations. You can SAY that because his percentages are in the same range or better than Curry/Hardaway that the team wouldn't be losing anything in exchanging him for them, but frankly, I think that rings pretty false. Those guys have carved a niche in the NBA by playing off-ball and relocating a certain way at certain times, always ready to get shots off. He's got a ways to go to be on their level (at that, particular skillset).

He's already showing much more than they do with a live dribble. That's the "draw" with him, imo (not saying he can't also be a good spot up guy, just that he's not as good as THEM yet). But, again, do we really want to see the ball in his hands instead of Luka's or Kyrie's? I do not. 

When the dust clears, and Hardy becomes a full-blown NBA mainstay (I think he will) he will be known for his scoring in the midrange, I believe. The uphill battle he faces is this: only 1-3 players per team are allowed to attempt shots like that. In other words, he's either got to A) get to a team more in need of developing a "go to" guy or B) figure out a way to help the team in a different way sooner, hoping to get a go-to role down the line. Lots of things might change between now and the trade deadline, but from where I sit, Exum's 3rd ball-handler role is much more vulnerable than THJ AND Curry's off-ball shooter roles. 

We'll see what happens.