Trade & FA 2023-24: Booker Likes NYK? Vogel Out? Suns Imploding?

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

If you look past the surface numbers, Hart is on a much different level than Green, and has been since he got out of NO. The issue I see with Green is that while he's active, he's not highly productive. What little he does while on the floor is good, but the quantity (per-36) is not.

Hart's better (for now).
Green is like 6 years younger than Hart.

I wouldn't expect Green to eclipse Hart's rebounds per game (ever), maybe he can be better at dimes per game, as for defense? Green can get there. Not totally outside the realm of possibility.

But the offense? I'd truly expect Green to be so much better than Hart when he turns 24.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1689294738359226368




Depending on his development this could be a benchmark for Green's next contract. Hart averaged 10/7/4 last season. Good defender. Solid shooter.
If Green is willing to extend his contract the Mavs should just do it. Don´t need a repeat of the Brunson drama.

Good take.  I agree.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

but we hoped for that last year and in total did NOT see it.

Maybe in total this might be true and I understand how your per 36 stats would lead you to believe that but I don't feel Green is someone who is ever going to fill up stat sheets even when he is making a lot of impactful plays on the floor.  Early on in the season before he got hurt, he was arguably the second best player on the team (we were bad...).  When he played with Kyrie before Luka came back he was also probably the second most important player on the team.  There was a pretty strong correlation between us winning games and Josh playing well last year (which I know is kind of an argument that can be used against me in this case given our record).  I understand that once you zoom out that the numbers didn't really show improvement but if you didn't SEE improvement, especially in his shot, then I would disagree.

I would argue there is still a confidence and consistency issue with Green and now that the training wheels are off with Reggie gone, we'll really find out what we have.  The way he disappeared once Luka and Kyrie were both on the floor was discouraging but not an unsolvable problem, he just needs to understand how he fits in.  I'm ready for the full Josh Green experience and I personally hope he's a starter from day one because I think he has the skillset to be a very valuable rotation player in this league, he just needs more confidence and a longer leash.  There's a reason (by most reports) that he's the first player that other GMs ask for in trade talks.

I wouldn't mind an extension now if it's at MLE range but knowing the way the Mavs operate they'll probably do what they did with DFS and Brunson and wait until after the trade deadline to make that commitment.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Hart's better (for now).
Green is like 6 years younger than Hart.

I wouldn't expect Green to eclipse Hart's rebounds per game (ever), maybe he can be better at dimes per game, as for defense? Green can get there. Not totally outside the realm of possibility.

But the offense? I'd truly expect Green to be so much better than Hart when he turns 24.

Hart is a freak on the boards for a guard.  I think Green's defense will be at that level.  Green is also amazingly efficient at shooting.  I'd like to see him put up more shots once in a while.

It floors me we are the worst rebounding team with Luka.  I consider him a point SF.  Luka's #3 at rebounding % for SFs (behind Tari Eason and Jaylin Williams).  G.Williams (33 contested rebound %) should improve rebounding over Bullock (20% contested rebound %).  Unless Lively gets big minutes, we're still rebound poor at C.

[mvossman]

Maybe in total this might be true and I understand how your per 36 stats would lead you to believe that but I don't feel Green is someone who is ever going to fill up stat sheets even when he is making a lot of impactful plays on the floor.  Early on in the season before he got hurt, he was arguably the second best player on the team (we were bad...).  When he played with Kyrie before Luka came back he was also probably the second most important player on the team.  There was a pretty strong correlation between us winning games and Josh playing well last year (which I know is kind of an argument that can be used against me in this case given our record).  I understand that once you zoom out that the numbers didn't really show improvement but if you didn't SEE improvement, especially in his shot, then I would disagree.

I would argue there is still a confidence and consistency issue with Green and now that the training wheels are off with Reggie gone, we'll really find out what we have.  The way he disappeared once Luka and Kyrie were both on the floor was discouraging but not an unsolvable problem, he just needs to understand how he fits in.  I'm ready for the full Josh Green experience and I personally hope he's a starter from day one because I think he has the skillset to be a very valuable rotation player in this league, he just needs more confidence and a longer leash.  There's a reason (by most reports) that he's the first player that other GMs ask for in trade talks.

I wouldn't mind an extension now if it's at MLE range but knowing the way the Mavs operate they'll probably do what they did with DFS and Brunson and wait until after the trade deadline to make that commitment.

They seem to be operating significantly differently than in prior years (probably much to do with Lindsey).  Hopefully this is another area they change course.  Not only has the methodology changed, hopefully they learned something with Brunson.

[ItsGoTime]

They seem to be operating significantly differently than in prior years (probably much to do with Lindsey).  Hopefully this is another area they change course.  Not only has the methodology changed, hopefully they learned something with Brunson.

About all this extension talk, which lesson have they learned? The Brunson lesson or the Powell lesson? I hope they extend him at a roughly MLE base, but, a part of me is cautious about the possibility that Green has a down year. His confidence issues has me a bit on edge (fellow countrymen Ben Simmons possibilities swirling a bit in my head).

[DanSchwartzgan]

What little he does while on the floor is good, but the quantity (per-36) is not.

I don't see how the Mavs can offer more than MLE-ish (or slightly more) to Green in an extension, which with raises should give him something like 4 yrs $58M (plus or minus $3M), which I think would start in the 13-14M range.

Welcome to the club.  $14mm has been my number all along.

I think the thing that per-36 misses on Josh (but doesn’t miss with most players) is he’s way better when he actually gets 36 versus taking what he does with lesser minutes projected to 36.  It has been that way every season.  When he played 20-29 minutes last season, his per-36 points/rebounds were 11.0 and 3.4.  When he played 30 minutes or more (18 games last season), he averaged 35.5 minutes and points/boards were 15.2/4.6.  That is a massive 38%/34% bump for actual (when he gets those minutes) versus projected.  

His efficiency also goes up with more minutes.  30+ games TS% was over .700 and his 3% was .465.  He did that on 10 attempts in high minute games compared to 8.5 attempts per 36 in games he only got 20-29 minutes.   He’s even more cautious with attempts when he plays under 20 minutes (7.1 per-36).

Bottom line is Josh doesn’t need to take “another leap” other than in minutes.  If he can come close to 15/4.6 on anywhere near that kind of shooting we have an absolute gem who is still at a very young age.  He doesn’t have to ‘do’ anything different from what he’s already shown he’s capable of doing.  Kidd is the one who has to change something.  With Reggie gone, that is much easier.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Early on in the season before he got hurt, he was arguably the second best player on the team (we were bad...).  When he played with Kyrie before Luka came back he was also probably the second most important player on the team. 

Good point.  We tend to forget about the injury.  

The O-Ratings for the team when Josh played were in the 128 area.  D ratings were about 112.,7.  They never came close to those numbers with Josh in the game after his return from injury.  Lots of external factors could explain that, but I think you are right to remember Josh was off to a fantastic start pre-injury and recency bias tends to steer us more toward how we remember things ending last season.

[mvossman]

About all this extension talk, which lesson have they learned? The Brunson lesson or the Powell lesson? I hope they extend him at a roughly MLE base, but, a part of me is cautious about the possibility that Green has a down year. His confidence issues has me a bit on edge (fellow countrymen Ben Simmons possibilities swirling a bit in my head).

The Powell extension was a long time ago.  The lack of a Brunson extension was much more recent.  If you are taking both together, the lesson should be better to sometimes get stuck with overpay (Powell) than miss huge value and lose player (Brunson).  I think we would agree that if our options were to extend neither or extend both, we would choose the later.  

As for price, I'm in line with you and the slightly over MLE (14 mil) guys.  Giving him a little over MLE seems like a win for both sides as he may not get over MLE in a restricted market.

[mvossman]

Hollinger "More than minimum, less than the midlevel"

13. Derrick Jones Jr., 26, Chicago: $7,937,768
A perennially underrated vagabond who is somehow only 26, Jones would be a good candidate with the room or taxpayer exception for a team that doesn’t require him to space the floor. Jones isn’t going to rain from deep, but the dunk contest champ makes up for it with energy, rim runs and transition dunks. He’s a career 61 percent shooter inside the arc and offers considerable secondary rim protection (4.0 percent block rate last year!) from the four position.

15. Hachimura ($5M)
16. Niang ($4.6)
17. T Prince ($3.7)

I'm a huge fan of this signing.  He doesn't take a ton of 3s, but interestingly his left corner 3 has been over 40% each of the last 3 years.  Seems like something Luka could take advantage of. 

I also think lineups with him and Maxi could be interesting.  He is actually a good rim runner, and a surprisingly good shot blocker.

[Smitty]

I'm a huge fan of this signing.  He doesn't take a ton of 3s, but interestingly his left corner 3 has been over 40% each of the last 3 years.  Seems like something Luka could take advantage of. 

I also think lineups with him and Maxi could be interesting.  He is actually a good rim runner, and a surprisingly good shot blocker.

I agree. Him and Maxi are a good duo off the bench while Grant and Holmes/Powell are a natural match as the starters.

I like that they've added defensive first guys that will fit well with Luka and Kyrie.

Still need to see McGee traded for a bag of chips and this is amazing one year makeover, considering the available resources.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I'm a huge fan of this signing.  He doesn't take a ton of 3s, but interestingly his left corner 3 has been over 40% each of the last 3 years.  Seems like something Luka could take advantage of. 

I also think lineups with him and Maxi could be interesting.  He is actually a good rim runner, and a surprisingly good shot blocker.

I was just about to comment on the Maxi/DJJ pairing.  Jones has one of the best PPP’s as a roll man in the entire league.  Playing with a C who can space things makes that pretty valuable.

We will run almost half the game with one of Luka and Kyrie sitting.  It feels like lineups for the beginning and end of halves is fairly easy to predict.  Much of our depth will be filling in spots in the w/o Luka and w/o Kyrie lineups at the end of the 1st/3rd quarter and beginning of the 2nd/4th quarter.

[ItsGoTime]

The Powell extension was a long time ago.  The lack of a Brunson extension was much more recent.  If you are taking both together, the lesson should be better to sometimes get stuck with overpay (Powell) than miss huge value and lose player (Brunson).  I think we would agree that if our options were to extend neither or extend both, we would choose the later.  

As for price, I'm in line with you and the slightly over MLE (14 mil) guys.  Giving him a little over MLE seems like a win for both sides as he may not get over MLE in a restricted market.

Might I suggest the possibility of the presence of lessons learned from the Powell extension in the Brunson situation? Maybe, at least a reinforcement of an already established practice.

Not necessarily from an injury standpoint as opposed to when it isn’t a sure thing of what a player is gonna be worth in that near future. It’s easy to extend Luka for the max. When someone is inconsistent with their play and has shown flashes of potential, it’s a much more difficult situation. It is their job to know, but there is no perfect knowledge in that situation. 

They bet wrong on JB and it sucks (or the established practice worked against them). It still looks like the “Powell lesson” might be a part of the process in this Green case though, right or wrong. Since Powell and other than Luka, have we extended a player in the offseason as opposed to later in the season (I don’t know, but if there are more than Luka, I’m pretty sure the list is very small)? 

It doesn’t seem like even before Powell there were a lot of extensions either, so this may just be a team philosophy and not a “Powell lesson”, just can’t recall it to memory and not enough interest in looking it up (wouldn’t know where to start even).

[KillerLeft]

Might I suggest the possibility of the presence of lessons learned from the Powell extension in the Brunson situation? Maybe, at least a reinforcement of an already established practice.

If so, I hope they flush that lesson out and go back to a state of naive ignorance, ASAP, because not losing Brunson, who probably would’ve been a value at his max, would’ve been worth giving out 10 contracts like Powell’s. I still don’t even regret that contract. Brunson walking GUTTED this thing.

[KillerLeft]

On the other hand, even the rosiest outlook on Green’s future doesn’t come close to a place where him walking is even comparable to Brunson walking. It would suck, because Green bring things to the table that this roster doesn’t have an abundance of, but Brunson is a GREAT player. I just rewatched that entire playoff run from the year before last and there were times he looked like the best player on the court. The Mavs had their 2nd star the whole time and didn’t realize it.

I hope they don’t drop the ball with Green, but I’m reasonably comfortable with them trying to get him on a fairly team-friendly deal, and would even be open to trading him at the deadline to punt on the entire negotiation (in the right deal).

[The Jom]

We just signed Derrick Jones Jr

Pretty remarkable how little discussion is here about this. A month ago it would’ve had its own 3-page thread.

[KillerLeft]

Pretty remarkable how little discussion is here about this. A month ago it would’ve had its own 3-page thread.

There are 2.5 pages of discussion each in two, separate threads…less than 24 hours after the signing.

[F Gump]

I understand that once you zoom out that the numbers didn't really show improvement but if you didn't SEE improvement, especially in his shot, then I would disagree.

I will just say that the numbers are the numbers, and if we want to determine how much he was doing, those counting stats are by far the best way to see. 

Yes we did see improvement in his shot (which is what I said)  -- the efficiency there was certainly better, as he made more 3s than previously, and at a higher rate -- but the issue I noted was that was about the only improvement. 

But he did NOT become more aggressive with his shot (which is a huge issue) - it was exactly the same rate of taking shots. So his better shooting pcts on similar attempts only bumped his ppg by 1.7 ppg (less than a single basket) And per minute, in those other areas where his production was anemic previously, he got worse in all of them -- fewer rebounds, fewer assists, fewer blocks, fewer steals, and more turnovers. That is NOT going to make him more valuable.

[sterlingmallory]

If so, I hope they flush that lesson out and go back to a state of naive ignorance, ASAP, because not losing Brunson, who probably would’ve been a value at his max, would’ve been worth giving out 10 contracts like Powell’s. I still don’t even regret that contract. Brunson walking GUTTED this thing.

He's about to get even better too. He's playing with Team USA and there are already reports coming out that he's basically the leader of the team. Playing for Team USA almost always turns out to be a great thing for young players. I think Brunson is going to be an all star next year and beyond. Nico has done a fantastic job of rebounding after last years disastrous offseason, but man, even with Kyrie, in the back of my mind I can't help but think about what we could have done if we'd found a way to keep Brunson, even if we had to throw the full 5 year max at him. He's turning out to be worth it. 

We wouldn't have had to trade Dinwiddie and DFS for Kyrie, we could have kept them or traded them for something else. I know I know it's over now and there's no point in rehashing it over and over but whatever, it's another all time screw up after we'd already made a couple all time screw ups in the past with losing Nash and Tyson Chandler.

[The Jom]

There are 2.5 pages of discussion each in two, separate threads…less than 24 hours after the signing.

Thanks. Found it hidden under the DFS Dad heading. Paying attention isn’t my strong suit.