Trade & FA 2023-24: OKC The Favorite For Nic Claxton Should He Leave BRK

[mvossman]

Your disagreement isn't vague, but your reasoning is...  which is convenient.  You said I'm wrong, so step out there and correct me with your numbers.

You are confusing cost (what did it actually cost you?) with value (what is it worth?).  If your friend gives you a $100k car, the cost is $0 and the worth is $100k.  Lively's cost was tanking, getting rid of Bertans, and $4.7m/yr.  OMax's cost was Holmes' $12m/yr and $2.7m.

Again, if we want Luka to stay, the 27FRP can't be anywhere near the lottery.  To not make us better in the next 3 years because you think we'll suck in 3 years is a self-fulfilling prophecy and why horrible franchises stay horrible.

My issue is with your methodology, so asking me to provide different numbers using your same methodology does not make sense.

If I were going to put value on players in a trade, it would be simpler to say what they would cost in assets.  Something like:

Allen:  Somewhere between one and two firsts
Timmy:  Roughly neutral.  Might require a second or two going out
Holmes: negative.  Less than a first going out

I really don't understand where you are going with this concept of cost.  If you are suggesting that we did not invest in Lively because we essentially got that pick for "free" then I think you are looking at it completely wrong.

You are wildly missing my point regrading the 27 pick.  Its value is based on what other teams think it might possibly be.  I'm not predicting what I think that pick will end up being.  I am predicting what I think other teams think it might end up being.  Teams tend to pay a premium on picks (particularly unprotected ones) when you don't know where they will land yet.  And its not hard to imagine teams betting against this FO.

[surfpuckmd]

DAL - J.Allen
CLE - P.Washington, J.Green, DAL27FRP
CHA - Maxi, DAL28SRP

I think that's too much to give up for Jarrett Allen.  He's a good player who I would like to have on the Mavericks.  However, I think Josh Green projects as a top-50 player in a couple of years and an is an ideal fit next to Kyrie and Luka in the starting lineup.  I think he's growing into an elite defensive player and is already a 40% percent 3-point shooter.  He's tremendously efficient already offensively and can actually handle the ball and pass reasonably well.  He's also only 22 years old and quite likely to improve.  I anticipate he will become our third best player this coming season.

Jarrett Allen is a really good player who I would really like to trade for.   We just used a lottery pick on Lively though and I think our hope is he can contribute in year two and become the starter in year 3.  So, Allen doesn't really fit well with our situation as he and Lively will not be able to play together.   It would also remove our two best assets-  Josh Green and the 2027 first.  This would make it difficult for us to trade for another difference maker.  

I like the player but wouldn't want to pay that price to obtain him.  I think we're better off waiting until later in the season when a few teams inevitably change course and decide to tank.  The prices on quality players will go down at that time.

[surfpuckmd]

My issue is with your methodology, so asking me to provide different numbers using your same methodology does not make sense.

If I were going to put value on players in a trade, it would be simpler to say what they would cost in assets.  Something like:

Allen:  Somewhere between one and two firsts
Timmy:  Roughly neutral.  Might require a second or two going out
Holmes: negative.  Less than a first going out

I really don't understand where you are going with this concept of cost.  If you are suggesting that we did not invest in Lively because we essentially got that pick for "free" then I think you are looking at it completely wrong.

You are wildly missing my point regrading the 27 pick.  Its value is based on what other teams think it might possibly be.  I'm not predicting what I think that pick will end up being.  I am predicting what I think other teams think it might end up being.  Teams tend to pay a premium on picks (particularly unprotected ones) when you don't know where they will land yet.  And its not hard to imagine teams betting against this FO.

 
I think everyone is undervaluing Hardaway Jr.  He's a good player and his contract is a good value.  I don't doubt the Mavericks have him available but I think they'd only deal him for another good player.  I think he's one of our better contracts actually.   I don't believe they'd have to attach draft assets to dump his contract.

[KillerLeft]

 
I think everyone is undervaluing Hardaway Jr.  He's a good player and his contract is a good value.  I don't doubt the Mavericks have him available but I think they'd only deal him for another good player.  I think he's one of our better contracts actually.   I don't believe they'd have to attach draft assets to dump his contract.

You're on the wrong board for this particular crusade, my guy. I've been trying for years, but this community loves to hate Tim Hardaway Jr.

[myconsumerclub]

I hope Hardaway is playing well from the start of the season because if he is then maybe someone will want to get him and that may be someone with a center that they might be shopping who could give us a 5 that we might need if Lively does'nt look like an all star right away.

SF is an area that THJ can play some and we have options there with Green Grant and OMax. Lawson can play there as well. that is 5

Center we got 5 guys Lively Holmes Kleber Powell and McGee PLUS 5 that play PF as well effectively giving us a level of depth that most teams cannot match, Holmes Kleber Grant OMax and Powell oh and even Luka can play the 4. That makes this team flexible enough to match up with most anyone.

Building up value in the trade value of our assets during the first half of the season is a must.

If they do well the mavs can generate interest and convince someone to take our older vets like McGee and THJ without us having to include any other assets. THJ at worst is a future expiring contract that we can trade off next season with assets coming back, if we are forced to keep him all season.

Capella is still in the rumors but I could care less. He is old and on the downhill slide to retirement. Might as well invest time in Lively and use the others in spurts as a platoon. You cannot convince me that McGee is not capable of giving us some solid minutes as a back up. Kleber and Holmes get you 2 stretch capable 5's so each one is a different look to use. Now there are some younger centers I might want to trade for but the future looks fine with Lively there and next offseason and draft there are plenty more options that we can probably find available with our 2 2nd round picks. Someone will fall to the 2nd. Building a young team that can compete for decades is the dream we need to build on.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

My issue is with your methodology, so asking me to provide different numbers using your same methodology does not make sense.

If I were going to put value on players in a trade, it would be simpler to say what they would cost in assets.  Something like:

Allen:  Somewhere between one and two firsts
Timmy:  Roughly neutral.  Might require a second or two going out
Holmes: negative.  Less than a first going out

I really don't understand where you are going with this concept of cost.  If you are suggesting that we did not invest in Lively because we essentially got that pick for "free" then I think you are looking at it completely wrong.

You are wildly missing my point regrading the 27 pick.  Its value is based on what other teams think it might possibly be.  I'm not predicting what I think that pick will end up being.  I am predicting what I think other teams think it might end up being.  Teams tend to pay a premium on picks (particularly unprotected ones) when you don't know where they will land yet.  And its not hard to imagine teams betting against this FO.

Ya, I don't quite get your logic, but that's fine.  You really don't understand the difference between cost and value, but that dead horse is beaten.  Ditto for the 27FRP.  Again, if that pick is anywhere near the lottery, we have lost Luka and the franchise is a smoking pile of shit.  You don't bet against yourself thinking you'll perpetually be picking in the lottery.  See CLT.  See DET.  See ORL.  Those are examples you want to avoid, not emulate.

[KillerLeft]

 Ditto for the 27FRP.  Again, if that pick is anywhere near the lottery, we have lost Luka and the franchise is a smoking pile of…

That’s obvious. 

That doesn’t mean it’s smart to use it in a trade that calls for a garden variety late 1st, because to the team betting against you, it just isn’t that. If you’re going to trade it, get proper value for it.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

That’s obvious. 

That doesn’t mean it’s smart to use it in a trade that calls for a garden variety late 1st, because to the team betting against you, it just isn’t that. If you’re going to trade it, get proper value for it.

Absolutely.  That's obvious for every asset.  You have to properly manage each.

The point is you don't not use it in the next 3 years to better the rotation within those 3 years.  IMO, this group inflates the value of this pick, planning for the franchise to be a la the 1990s.  

We have a generational player in Luka, a top 5 player and perennial MVP candidate, all at 24yo.  We have a top 15 player in Kyrie, but at 31yo.  Luka can walk after the 2025/26.  It is imperative that we win NOW.  We have to compete for a championship every year.

J.Allen is a top 10 defensive C.  Great rebounder.  He is PERFECT for what we need.  Reasoning for the package of J.Green, Maxi, 2027FRP, and 2028SRP:
--J.Green: valuable young player.  We have a glut of guards tho, not to mention he needs to be paid by the end of this season.  We're already at the first apron.  I think it's a Brunson situation. 
--Maxi: love him.  Our best switching big by a mile.  I just don't think there's not much left in the tank.  He played in only 20% of the minutes afforded him last year.
--2027FRP: again, you win now so that this pick is the somewhere 25-30, not lottery.
--2028SRP: IMO you need this for CLT with Maxi in and P.Washington out.

[Qabick]

We just signed Derrick Jones Jr

[HoosierDaddyKid]

We just signed Derrick Jones Jr

Now maybe all the PJ Washington talk will subside.

[SleepingHero]

We just signed Derrick Jones Jr

Pretty shocking to say the least. I was convinced the Mavs wouldn't even try to go to a 15 man roster due to tax implications for future moves. 

Now time to look up DJJ highlights 

[F Gump]

Pretty shocking to say the least. I was convinced the Mavs wouldn't even try to go to a 15 man roster due to tax implications for future moves. 

If there are no coming moves, there are no tax implications in this move (or in having a 15-man roster as is), assuming DJJ is getting minimum salary.
....Edited to add: and per a later Shams note, it is a minimum salary deal.

[dirkfansince1998]

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1689294738359226368

    New York Knicks G Josh Hart is finalizing a four-year, $81 million contract extension, Aaron Mintz, Dave Spahn and Steven Heumann of
    @CAA_Basketball
    tell ESPN. Deal delivers Hart a total of $94M through 2027-2028 season.

Depending on his development this could be a benchmark for Green's next contract. Hart averaged 10/7/4 last season. Good defender. Solid shooter.
If Green is willing to extend his contract the Mavs should just do it. Don´t need a repeat of the Brunson drama.

[Jym]

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1689294738359226368




Depending on his development this could be a benchmark for Green's next contract. Hart averaged 10/7/4 last season. Good defender. Solid shooter.
If Green is willing to extend his contract the Mavs should just do it. Don´t need a repeat of the Brunson drama.

Yeah right around MLE money seems like a good deal for both sides
Protects us from a breakout season payday and keeps him paid in case Kidd decides to Kidd him.

[F Gump]

Depending on his development this could be a benchmark for Green's next contract. Hart averaged 10/7/4 last season. Good defender. Solid shooter.

If Green is willing to extend his contract the Mavs should just do it. Don´t need a repeat of the Brunson drama.

If you look past the surface numbers, Hart is on a much different level than Green, and has been since he got out of NO. The issue I see with Green is that while he's active, he's not highly productive. What little he does while on the floor is good, but the quantity (per-36) is not.

As a result, his PER (which measures total production) has always been well below NBA average. This past year was 11.2, while Hart was at 17.1 in NY. That number pulls in the overlooked stats, and Hart is better in just about every one of them (and in some of them, such as rebounding, very much better).

I don't see how the Mavs can offer more than MLE-ish (or slightly more) to Green in an extension, which with raises should give him something like 4 yrs $58M (plus or minus $3M), which I think would start in the 13-14M range. If you assume he will have a significant jump this coming year, you can justify more, but we hoped for that last year and in total did NOT see it. Its not smart to assume it again. His efficiency went up somewhat, but his production on a per-36 basis only increased by less than 1 basket a game (he shot the same low number of shots, but made one more), and in every other category (rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers) he was worse per-36.

[Jym]

I wonder what kind of money DJJ had in mind when he opted out of that $3.3 deal with the Bulls. I think we got a really good deal. Now just a question of where his minutes come from.

[vfromlmf]

Hollinger "More than minimum, less than the midlevel"

13. Derrick Jones Jr., 26, Chicago: $7,937,768
A perennially underrated vagabond who is somehow only 26, Jones would be a good candidate with the room or taxpayer exception for a team that doesn’t require him to space the floor. Jones isn’t going to rain from deep, but the dunk contest champ makes up for it with energy, rim runs and transition dunks. He’s a career 61 percent shooter inside the arc and offers considerable secondary rim protection (4.0 percent block rate last year!) from the four position.

15. Hachimura ($5M)
16. Niang ($4.6)
17. T Prince ($3.7)

[Chicagojk]

Really like the Jones signing and especially at the $. There is a solid chance Jones may be outside the regular rotation, but that could change due to his earning time, injury or trade. It is really nice insurance with some upside. I wanted to take a gamble on a player who could really up his value after the season. Sort of a like a George Niang did. Even if he left after the season. It would be a win/win.

[Chicagojk]

A lot to be determined when we get to camp to see who can play and who fits in well, but I just have the feeling Powell is going to lose a lot of his regular rotation minutes. Powell has such a good connection with Luka though. Just feels like there is a lot of mixing and matching with Maxi and Grant with some of the rest of our players. Maybe a Maxi and Jones frontcourt. Rebounding would be an issue.

We will see if Holmes has anything left. If he does, I think Powell would be the player to lose minutes with the current roster. Time will tell.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
We will see if Holmes has anything left.  If he does, I think Powell would be the player to lose minutes with the current roster.  Time will tell.

One of the beauties of Powell is he seems so willing to do whatever is asked of him.  He could easily start opening night and give way to Holmes if Holmes is playing well and eventually give up some of his minutes to Lively if/when Lively emerges (whether this season or next).  No Prima Donna whatsoever, which is another reason he is (and always has been) a really good backup center.