Trade & FA 2023-24: Paul George to Test Free Agency After No Contract Extension

[DanSchwartzgan]

I saw that fakeout, too.

Green or Hardy would be gone, imo, probably to Charlotte.  Might have to send a sweetener to Cleveland, too. It’s not enough for the ‘27, I don’t think. Doesn’t feel realistic, especially since I don’t think Dallas can do without THJ AND either Green or Hardy.

I thought it was an interesting thought exercise.  If you are Cleveland, what do you need to be compensated for the spread between Allen and PJ?  Some might argue PJ is the better fit in Cleveland.  So, how much spread is there?

If you are Charlotte, what do you need to be compensated for the spread between THJ and PJ?  It isn't just the player PJ here, it is also the circumstance.  They have all sorts of PF's, they don't want to commit to him long term and they could use some outside shooting.  With that in mind, is there that much of a spread between PJ and THJ?

I think we can jump on the idea that Allen is a ton better than THJ and presume it would cost us a ton.  But, to the teams involved, the fits all make sense.  I don't think it would take a player like Green or Hardy.  It might take a pick, but I suspect so many picks would change hands that it would be difficult to figure out what the true cost was.

[surfpuckmd]

I thought it was an interesting thought exercise.  If you are Cleveland, what do you need to be compensated for the spread between Allen and PJ?  Some might argue PJ is the better fit in Cleveland.  So, how much spread is there?

If you are Charlotte, what do you need to be compensated for the spread between THJ and PJ?  It isn't just the player PJ here, it is also the circumstance.  They have all sorts of PF's, they don't want to commit to him long term and they could use some outside shooting.  With that in mind, is there that much of a spread between PJ and THJ?

I think we can jump on the idea that Allen is a ton better than THJ and presume it would cost us a ton.  But, to the teams involved, the fits all make sense.  I don't think it would take a player like Green or Hardy.  It might take a pick, but I suspect so many picks would change hands that it would be difficult to figure out what the true cost was.

I think we’d have to add our 2027 unprotected first to the deal and send it to Cleveland.  I think that would make it a fair deal for Cleveland.  I don’t think we’d have to add assets to the Hornets.  I think THJ is a good player and fair value for Pj Washington.  This would be a good deal for the Mavericks if it were available.  I think it’s pretty good for the Cavaliers as well.  I think THJ makes sense for the Hornets as well as the backup 2 and 3.  He also brings some good veteran leadership.  Good trade proposal.

[mvossman]

The issue with DJJ is price vs production.

He's already been in the league 7 years. We have a fairly reliable picture of who he will be -- some good defense, but almost no offense. He's a bit bigger version of Franky Smokes.

He's already been signed on the "maybe we can get more out of him" plan, more than once, and it looks like what you already see is what you get. He's a 8th-9th man or so.

I think he's waiting for an offer up around 9-10M. Last year he played for about 3, but he wants more money and a bigger role. He makes sense at the minimum, and probably not much more. So he sits.

I think the Franky comparison is a little harsh.  Frank has a career TS under 50% and was 43% last season.  DJJ is closer to 60% and scores about what Grant Williams does per 36.  Your 8-9 man estimation seems more accurate (Frank was not top 10) and I would argue thats worth roughly the BAE.  If we can get him for that and stay under the tax its a no brainer to me.  You are probably right that he is looking for more.  Are there many teams left that can pay more than the BAE?

[mvossman]

I think we’d have to add our 2027 unprotected first to the deal and send it to Cleveland.  I think that would make it a fair deal for Cleveland.  I don’t think we’d have to add assets to the Hornets.  I think THJ is a good player and fair value for Pj Washington.  This would be a good deal for the Mavericks if it were available.  I think it’s pretty good for the Cavaliers as well.  I think THJ makes sense for the Hornets as well as the backup 2 and 3.  He also brings some good veteran leadership.  Good trade proposal.

If we could send THJ for PJ straight up, I would pull that trigger without hesitation.  That is generally an indicator for me that its likely light on our side.  Adding 2 seconds probably would not be enough.  I don't see any way we get Allen without giving up both the unprotected first and one of the kids.

[KillerLeft]

I think we can jump on the idea that Allen is a ton better than THJ and presume it would cost us a ton.  But, to the teams involved, the fits all make sense.  I don't think it would take a player like Green or Hardy.  It might take a pick, but I suspect so many picks would change hands that it would be difficult to figure out what the true cost was.

If you are correct, I would be all over this. I would not give up the unprotected ’27, even with a pick coming back. But, anything south of that line and I’m in.

[Reunion Mav]

A pipe dream probably. I could sure enjoy Allen on this team though.

[omahen]

If the following trade went down, what else would Dallas have to add and who would get it?

PJ Washington to Cleveland

THJ to Charlotte

Allen to Dallas

Interesting idea. I would think that both Charlotte and Cleveland would need some compensation. Allen is the best player in the deal. Was an all star, is on a very team friendly deal for an all star, but had a bad playoff series. So a bit difficult to evaluate his value. Still, I think his past, contract and age have more weight than a bad series with a team that was not perfectly constructed for him. Second best player is PJ, imho. The contract he asks for is high for what he brings, so that reduces his value. Still, I agree he seems to be great fit for Cleveland. Since he is restricted, I think a lottery protected first is fair value. THJ is useful, but his contract is not great. Mavs are trying to trade him for some time, but it doesn't seem league sees much value in him. 

I think if we would talk about straight up deal between Charlotte and Cleveland, Charlotte would need to add an unprotected first to PJ to get Allen. Dallas would need to add 2027 and something more (Green or Hardy?) to THJ to get Allen, imho.

Based on this, I would perhaps propose a deal like this:
Cha: THJ, McGee, Green (I would much rather prefer Hardy)
Cle: PJ, 2027 (perhaps lightly protected)
Dal: Allen, Martin

Charlotte gets another interesting young player but eats also McGee contract. Cleveland receives a better fitting player and fair compensation. Dallas gets best player in the deal who is sort of perfect for what they need and Martin to fill the wing hole after Green (or Hardy) departure. With the hope, that he can produce again at the level, which earned him his current contract. His last season was really bad.

[omahen]

One thing to note. Charlotte just got new owners. No idea who they are or what their ambitions are. But last two new owners in the league (Minnesota and Phoenix, if I didn't forget someone), both wanted to do an immediate big splash. Would new owners really be interested in getting worst player in the deal?

[Mapka]

Interesting idea. I would think that both Charlotte and Cleveland would need some compensation. Allen is the best player in the deal. Was an all star, is on a very team friendly deal for an all star, but had a bad playoff series. So a bit difficult to evaluate his value. Still, I think his past, contract and age have more weight than a bad series with a team that was not perfectly constructed for him. Second best player is PJ, imho. The contract he asks for is high for what he brings, so that reduces his value. Still, I agree he seems to be great fit for Cleveland. Since he is restricted, I think a lottery protected first is fair value. THJ is useful, but his contract is not great. Mavs are trying to trade him for some time, but it doesn't seem league sees much value in him. 

I think if we would talk about straight up deal between Charlotte and Cleveland, Charlotte would need to add an unprotected first to PJ to get Allen. Dallas would need to add 2027 and something more (Green or Hardy?) to THJ to get Allen, imho.

Based on this, I would perhaps propose a deal like this:
Cha: THJ, McGee, Green (I would much rather prefer Hardy)
Cle: PJ, 2027 (perhaps lightly protected)
Dal: Allen, Martin

Charlotte gets another interesting young player but eats also McGee contract. Cleveland receives a better fitting player and fair compensation. Dallas gets best player in the deal who is sort of perfect for what they need and Martin to fill the wing hole after Green (or Hardy) departure. With the hope, that he can produce again at the level, which earned him his current contract. His last season was really bad.

I think this kind of valuation is the reason why we won´t see any THJ trade until his last year.
THJ is a better and more useful player than PJ right now. And he isn´t that much of a distraction.

I´m not even sure why we would bother about PJ if it cost us additional assets.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

THJ is a $11m/yr player. That's $7m of dead money / yr. Allen is at least a $30m/yr player. Regardless of how it's spread, by using THJ, you're looking at adding $19m/yr and taking back at least $7m of dead money. At a minimum, you're talking about adding Green and unprotected 2027FRP.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

DAL - J.Allen
CLE - P.Washington, J.Green, DAL27FRP
CHA - Maxi, DAL28SRP

[KillerLeft]

THJ is a $11m/yr player.  That's $7m of dead money / yr.  Allen is at least a $30m/yr player.  Regardless of how it's spread, by using THJ, you're looking at adding $19m/yr and taking back at least $7m of dead money.  At a minimum, you're talking about adding Green and unprotected 2027FRP.

I don't think this is true, value wise. The money can be made even in a number of ways, but the value you're offering here is way, way over Allen's return value, imo. 

But if you're right, and that's what it would take, you just hang up the phone and don't do the deal. The Mavs don't need a center THAT badly.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Including THJ for a player worth more than their contract is almost going to be impossible. Unless we go after an equally distressed asset, I don't see it happening before the 2024-25 when he is expiring and cheaper.

Maxi, J.Green, 28SRP, and the 27FRP is a lot to give up, but IMO J.Allen is worth it. He's under contract for 3 more years at only $20m/yr. That timeline is ideal with Lively in that he can progress at an organic rate, maybe even getting time with the Legends. You have 2.5 seasons to see what you have in Lively, then make a determination on J.Allen at the 2027 TDL.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I don't think this is true, value wise. The money can be made even in a number of ways, but the value you're offering here is way, way over Allen's return value, imo. 

But if you're right, and that's what it would take, you just hang up the phone and don't do the deal. The Mavs don't need a center THAT badly.

You don't think THJ is an $11m/yr player or you don't think J.Allen is a $30m/yr player?

IMO, it'd take Maxi/28SRP to CLT, P.Washington/J.Green/27FRP to CLE.

Do I think that J.Allen is worth Maxi/J.Green/27FRP/28SRP?  I do.

[KillerLeft]

You don't think THJ is an $11m/yr player or you don't think J.Allen is a $30m/yr player?

Neither, especially Allen being worth $30m/yr. 

More to the point, the hangup you have about what you think of their true contractual worth isn't really the "aha" puzzle piece you seem to believe. A player underplaying or overplaying their ACTUAL contract factors into their desirability, absolutely. That's a relatively simple concept you're unnecessarily complicating, I think. 

Even MORE more to the point, the Mavs don't need a center badly enough to spend Green or Hardy AND that unprotected '27. I don't think they need one badly enough to spend even one of those assets. You keep acting like Lively isn't going make a dent for three years. I suppose you might be right about that, but I can GUARANTEE the Mavs don't see it that way. That's basically his entire first contract. So, given where they were with the overall roster and that position, specifically, when the pick was made, it seems rather apparent that they expect him to contribute sooner. 

I would love to have Allen, don't get me wrong, but I don't think the combo of Powell, Holmes and especially Kleber is the end of the world, and I think Lively is probably making a fairly significant contribution in year 2.  If Lively can't contribute something in year 2, that was a bad pick. But, they need to find out before they send the last good assets they have out on another center. 

---

Do I think that J.Allen is worth Maxi/J.Green/27FRP/28SRP?  I do.

I do not. He's not a difference maker, even among defensive centers. Maybe I'd feel differently if he didn't just ruin his team's playoff run. Lord knows one playoff run isn't the end of any player's story - he could be better in the future, but the level of trade compensation you're suggesting might get you in the conversation for someone like Siakim.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Neither, especially Allen being worth $30m/yr. 

More to the point, the hangup you have about what you think of their true contractual worth isn't really the "aha" puzzle piece you seem to believe. A player underplaying or overplaying their ACTUAL contract factors into their desirability, absolutely. That's a relatively simple concept you're unnecessarily complicating, I think. 

Even MORE more to the point, the Mavs don't need a center badly enough to spend Green or Hardy AND that unprotected '27. I don't think they need one badly enough to spend even one of those assets. You keep acting like Lively isn't going make a dent for three years. I suppose you might be right about that, but I can GUARANTEE the Mavs don't see it that way. That's basically his entire first contract. So, given where they were with the overall roster and that position, specifically, when the pick was made, it seems rather apparent that they expect him to contribute sooner. 

I would love to have Allen, don't get me wrong, but I don't think the combo of Powell, Holmes and especially Kleber is the end of the world, and I think Lively is probably making a fairly significant contribution in year 2.  If Lively can't contribute something in year 2, that was a bad pick. But, they need to find out before they send the last good assets they have out on another center. 

---

I do not. He's not a difference maker, even among defensive centers. Maybe I'd feel differently if he didn't just ruin his team's playoff run. Lord knows one playoff run isn't the end of any player's story - he could be better in the future, but the level of trade compensation you're suggesting might get you in the conversation for someone like Siakim.

If not $30m/yr, what is J.Allen's worth in your estimation?

Looking at actual value is simplifying the equation, not complicating it.  It makes what is nebulous and quantifies it.  It's like teams putting a $ value to each pick in the NFL draft.  It's all about taking the Apron 1 as a finite bucket and building an optimal 15-man roster by properly allocating that finite bucket.  This is why players on rookie contracts are worth far more than their salary.

I keep hearing people on this board talking about THJ's "value", and then making insane proposals based upon that "feeling".  You can argue my $11m/yr THJ appraisal, but I think it's impossible to argue his value is worth his $17m/yr contract.

What have we actually invested in the C position?  Holmes was the price of getting OMax (putting OMax's cost at $14.7m).  Lively was pennies from Heaven by tanking and getting rid of Bertans.  That leaves the salaries of Powell, McGee, and Lively (actual salary, not value)...  $4.0m + $5.7m + $4.7m = $14.4m (8.4% of the apron).  Are we heavily invested at the C spot?  Nope.

The Mavs have already stated they don't expect Lively to contribute for some time.  Given his limited minutes at Duke and what we saw in the Summer League, I don't think you can argue with what the Mavs have already stated.

IMO, you are failing to factor in asset management.  At the TDL 2026 we would have an expiring $20m 27yo J.Allen and a $5.2m 22yo Lively (with 1.5 years left on his rookie contract).  This gives you 2.5 years of Lively getting 16-20mins a game in backing up J.Allen.  At that time you make the best decision for the largest need on the roster.

[mvossman]

If not $30m/yr, what is J.Allen's worth in your estimation?

Looking at actual value is simplifying the equation, not complicating it.  It makes what is nebulous and quantifies it.  It's like teams putting a $ value to each pick in the NFL draft.  It's all about taking the Apron 1 as a finite bucket and building an optimal 15-man roster by properly allocating that finite bucket.  This is why players on rookie contracts are worth far more than their salary.

I keep hearing people on this board talking about THJ's "value", and then making insane proposals based upon that "feeling".  You can argue my $11m/yr THJ appraisal, but I think it's impossible to argue his value is worth his $17m/yr contract.

What have we actually invested in the C position?  Holmes was the price of getting OMax (putting OMax's cost at $14.7m).  Lively was pennies from Heaven by tanking and getting rid of Bertans.  That leaves the salaries of Powell, McGee, and Lively (actual salary, not value)...  $4.0m + $5.7m + $4.7m = $14.4m (8.4% of the apron).  Are we heavily invested at the C spot?  Nope.

The Mavs have already stated they don't expect Lively to contribute for some time.  Given his limited minutes at Duke and what we saw in the Summer League, I don't think you can argue with what the Mavs have already stated.

IMO, you are failing to factor in asset management.  At the TDL 2026 we would have an expiring $20m 27yo J.Allen and a $5.2m 22yo Lively (with 1.5 years left on his rookie contract).  This gives you 2.5 years of Lively getting 16-20mins a game in backing up J.Allen.  At that time you make the best decision for the largest need on the roster.

I think you are greatly simplifying player value in trades.  Its not as simple as putting a number value on them and then deciding they are a positive or negative asset based on that.  Good players can be over priced, and yet still get value in return.  That is because the other team has no avenue to get a player of equal value, even if they are willing to overpay.  

I am not sure Allen is worth the max, especially given his recent playoff performance.

I think Timmy is worth more than the MLE.  Maybe not his contract, but more than MLE.  He could be neutral value in a trade depending on the circumstances.

Don't get the "pennies from heaven" comment regarding Lively.  He was a lottery pick.  We have made very few of those in the last 20+ years.  That is the biggest asset we had with the possible exception of the unprotected 27.  That is a significant investment.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I think you are greatly simplifying player value in trades.  Its not as simple as putting a number value on them and then deciding they are a positive or negative asset based on that.  Good players can be over priced, and yet still get value in return.  That is because the other team has no avenue to get a player of equal value, even if they are willing to overpay.  

I am not sure Allen is worth the max, especially given his recent playoff performance.

I think Timmy is worth more than the MLE.  Maybe not his contract, but more than MLE.  He could be neutral value in a trade depending on the circumstances.

Don't get the "pennies from heaven" comment regarding Lively.  He was a lottery pick.  We have made very few of those in the last 20+ years.  That is the biggest asset we had with the possible exception of the unprotected 27.  That is a significant investment.

I was complicating it, but now I'm simplifying too much?  I never said this approach is 100% of your evaluation, just a good starting point.  It only evaluates a player's current worth/cost, does not project out, which obviously needs to be factored in with a multitude of other factors.

You say J.Allen is not worth the Max, which is IMO common sensical... he's not and I never said he was.  I said he's a $30m player.  Again, what do you think he's worth given you disagree with me?  Are you saying he's not worth more than his $20m contract?

Re: THJ, I said he's a $11m/yr player.  You disagreed, by saying he's worth more than MLE ($12.4m).  Again, you are being vague.  What do you think his worth is, then?  Specifically.  He would have neutral value IF what's coming in is of the same value and cost.  It's math.

Point with Lively is that he has terrific value with little to no cost, only cost being his salary.  OMax, on the other hand, has a cost of his and Holmes' salary (or the vast majority of Holmes' salary).  Looking at cost and value differently, you're able to better evaluate your moves.

If the unprotected 27FRP is of value higher than spots 25-30, we're screwed anyway and this is all academic.  You don't manage your current and future roster with the notion you're going to suck in 3 years.

[mvossman]

I was complicating it, but now I'm simplifying too much?  I never said this approach is 100% of your evaluation, just a good starting point.  It only evaluates a player's current worth/cost, does not project out, which obviously needs to be factored in with a multitude of other factors.

You say J.Allen is not worth the Max, which is IMO common sensical... he's not and I never said he was.  I said he's a $30m player.  Again, what do you think he's worth given you disagree with me?  Are you saying he's not worth more than his $20m contract?

Re: THJ, I said he's a $11m/yr player.  You disagreed, by saying he's worth more than MLE ($12.4m).  Again, you are being vague.  What do you think his worth is, then?  Specifically.  He would have neutral value IF what's coming in is of the same value and cost.  It's math.

Point with Lively is that he has terrific value with little to no cost, only cost being his salary.  OMax, on the other hand, has a cost of his and Holmes' salary (or the vast majority of Holmes' salary).  Looking at cost and value differently, you're able to better evaluate your moves.

If the unprotected 27FRP is of value higher than spots 25-30, we're screwed anyway and this is all academic.  You don't manage your current and future roster with the notion you're going to suck in 3 years.

I am being vague regarding player values because player values are vague.  They depend on a lot of outside factors and vary based on circumstances.  

Lively was not little to no cost.  It was a lottery pick, which are very scarce.  His cost was significantly more than Omax (if we wanted to trade into the lottery, we would have had to take on way more salary than we did for Omax).

Lots of things can happen in 3 years and catastrophic injuries are always a concern in the year for that pick.  That picks value is all about how other teams value it.  My guess is its value would roughly equivalent to late lottery, but it could be more depending on how down other teams are on this FO.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I am being vague regarding player values because player values are vague.  They depend on a lot of outside factors and vary based on circumstances.  

Lively was not little to no cost.  It was a lottery pick, which are very scarce.  His cost was significantly more than Omax (if we wanted to trade into the lottery, we would have had to take on way more salary than we did for Omax).

Lots of things can happen in 3 years and catastrophic injuries are always a concern in the year for that pick.  That picks value is all about how other teams value it.  My guess is its value would roughly equivalent to late lottery, but it could be more depending on how down other teams are on this FO.

Your disagreement isn't vague, but your reasoning is...  which is convenient.  You said I'm wrong, so step out there and correct me with your numbers.

You are confusing cost (what did it actually cost you?) with value (what is it worth?).  If your friend gives you a $100k car, the cost is $0 and the worth is $100k.  Lively's cost was tanking, getting rid of Bertans, and $4.7m/yr.  OMax's cost was Holmes' $12m/yr and $2.7m.

Again, if we want Luka to stay, the 27FRP can't be anywhere near the lottery.  To not make us better in the next 3 years because you think we'll suck in 3 years is a self-fulfilling prophecy and why horrible franchises stay horrible.