Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[RDB]

Totally agree that the pick goes out long before '27. Very low chance of the Mavs keeping it in order to draft a player. Almost nil. 

Here's the thing about it that I don't think people are getting: it would be silly to move it in a deal that calls for a garden-variety late first. 

WE can argue with each other about whether or not we believe it will be a late 1st, late lottery pick or #1 overall (worst case scenario) all we want, and all opinions/predictions about that are as valid as the next, I suppose. BUT, part of its value is the potential that Luka will be gone, the team will suck, and the pick's new owner lucks into an insanely valuable asset. That is what you're bartering with - that's the upside for the other team because it basically has to be unprotected. 

Look, I wouldn't have sent that unprotected '29 out for Kyrie - that's well documented around here. But, in that situation, they at least got the maximum "high risk, high reward" value for the pick. The "cheap" trade cost of Kyrie was partly because he was toxic, and partly because BRK decided to bet on the idea that Dallas will be a mess by '29. They're betting the pick will be a great one, Dallas is betting it won't. I don't like the risk, especially given Luka was 23 years old at the time, but at least they got the pick's value in return. If that trade had been paid in the usual, lottery-protected, "you're only getting this 1st if it's a LATE one" type of picks (like the ones Dallas sent to NY for Porzingis) it would probably have called for like 3 of them. 

The '27 is the exact, same situation. Even if we, as fans, are 100% sure that it's going to be a late first, the team CAN'T protect it in such a way to alleviate the risk. So, if they move it, they need to move it to a team willing to make a futures bet similar to the one BRK made. They need to get VALUE that parallels the risk they're taking, and Capela comes nowhere close from my seat. 

Again, they have pissed away so many firsts that they can't really protect it in the traditional way. That's the problem. Alternatively, they could maybe protect it in such a way that it IMMEDIATELY becomes a 2nd or two if it's too high, but that almost makes it LESS valuable than a garden-variety 1st. I'm not sure that's ENOUGH value to get someone useful, tbh. 

Trade it, sure. Just don't get FLEECED.

There is a future in which that unprotected '27 is a FAR more valuable asset than either Hardy or Green, and it needs to be treated and dangled with that in mind. Not treated like the same type of asset that the Mavs used to get Christian Wood.

I agree.  Personally, I would be shocked if Cuban lost Luka but that doesn’t mean I would discount the potential value of that possibility.  We talk about the need to act fast quite often but I think Luka is home and the Mav’s will remain competitive throughout his prime years barring injury or a Big Mac addiction.  If not, it would be interesting to see what kind of haul we could get for him.

Frankly, I am not a fan of the habit of trading away draft picks.  If I were a 3 comma owner, I would have an army of scouts and quants on incentive based compensation working overtime.  The market is going to tank soon (not financial advice), go hire some quants from Goldman Sachs or Citadel.  I might even see what it would cost to poach the Spurs & Heat staff…everyone has a price.  I say that somewhat tongue in cheek but it would be nice if we had the players that other teams covet v. the other way around.  In the FA market, players either have warts or their value is demonstrated and you pay a premium.