Trade & FA 2023-24: Booker Likes NYK? Vogel Out? Suns Imploding?

[KillerLeft]

Whoa, gifs are back?????

[SleepingHero]

Circling back around - now would you ....

Ayton-Wainright-Camara
Holmes-McGee-THJ

Can't happen until early Sept. Money is almost identical (only about 179K diff). 3-for-3 means no one has empty slot to fill afterwards, or a need to waive someone and eat their salary to make the bodies fit. Those may be the ONLY 3 that Phx can trade until Dec (except their big 3).

Very imperfect deal. It ignores all the posturing from both camps, about who is or isn't worth what, and what they will and won't do.

But it does a lot. Besides the right money and number of bodies being swapped, it solves (to some degree) "a starting C for Dallas" and "split Ayton into smaller pieces for easier maneuvering for PHX" while still (perhaps fairly) leaving both teams with other possible needs to deal with.

So, would you?

Of course I would (but is that really a surprise?)

Mavs get a bonafide starting center thats 24 years old and for all the reasons I've beaten to death would fit here well.

Mavs clear off McGee's money, which by all accounts is dead space anyways, and are essentially trading THJ for Ayton from last years team and getting 2 whatever guys. 

It's almost too much of a no brainer for me.

[MFFL]

Built from within teams like Denver look good moving forward. That is the positive incentive not to be tempted to over spend.

Most teams are too lazy to do it without shortcuts. And most GM/coaches don't last long enough to do the patient way - why develop players for the next GM/coach?

[Kidnova]

What is that list?  Maybe if your focused solely on defense but then Thybulle belongs in that list.

I feel like folks are getting carried away with Caruso.  He scores 6 points a game, starts half his games at most and generally averages in the low 20s minutes wise.  That is a good role/rotational player.  Those other guys start every game and play well over 30 minutes a game.  They are in different leagues as players and I am skeptical Caruso could keep up with those guys defensively if had to play those minutes against starting units.  He is a really good defender, but I just don't think he is someone you spend major assets on.

I'm with you.  I don't know where all of this Caruso love is coming from.

[Kidnova]

Was this just a gif test reply?  Green is already better than Caruso offensively. I don't see any reason to believe Green has maxed out his offensive potential already.

[Jym]

Yeah we'll see where Green is this year
The roster makes way more sense if he can be a consistent 3rd option starter averaging in the mid to high teens.
Everyone keeps talking about Hardy but him being on the court a lot with both Luka and Kyrie seems like a bad idea.

[SleepingHero]

https://twitter.com/btoporek/status/1681...88646?s=46&t=Ofn9ihgBPdBFQJpnkEDS0A

Bryan Toporek (@btoporek)
Daryl Morey on what he wants in a James Harden trade: "If we don't get either a very good player or something that we could turn into a very good player, then we're just not gonna do it."

Seems like Daryl is trying to pull a Ben Simmons move all over again, except this time Harden is expiring. Not really sure why a team would willingly give up a very good player for Harden knowing he's declining talentwise and seeking a max deal.

Clippers are the only team with concrete interest and they aren't giving up PG or Kawhi.

[cow]

Green is already better than Caruso offensively. 

If he were consistent, that might be true, but he is anything but consistent.

[SleepingHero]

https://twitter.com/eringrugan/status/16...67809?s=20

Erin Grugan (@eringrugan)
Daryl Morey on 97.5: "I think James [Harden] is a little bit hard to play with at times. I think Joel [Embiid] is a little bit hard to play with at times. Both these guys are such dominant forces that they can be challenging for guys to play off of." #Sixers

https://twitter.com/btoporek/status/1681...32352?s=46&t=Fmdr94oXagcEyy75KJqaFg

Bryan Toporek (@btoporek)
Daryl Morey: "A lot of the depth we lost, if we had done something to bring them back, it would have hurt our ability to compete down the road."

He says they're the only contender poised to have significant cap room next year.

https://twitter.com/btoporek/status/1681...07138?s=46&t=Fmdr94oXagcEyy75KJqaFg

Bryan Toporek (@btoporek)
Morey says an elite wing who can play both on and off the ball would be the perfect complement to Joel Embiid.

Perhaps a hint about the archetype they're pursuing in a Harden trade and/or next offseason?

Morey is definitely targeting Paul George.

[SleepingHero]

If he were consistent, that might be true, but he is anything but consistent.

Well I suppose it depends on the expectation and scale of consistency.  Green last year wasn't a night in-night out 15 point a game guy. But piggybacking off of everyone else's comments, setting in stone a 22 year olds future production based off of his previous season is tricky at best and slightly obtuse at worst. 

Green has consistently gotten better each year, and has nearly doubled his offensive output year after year. Following that trend, he should average close to 18ppg next year. Of course that's unlikely, but it's not inconceivable (nor unlikely) that Green could average close to 15ppg based on his historical trends.

That also coincides with an increase of efficiency as well. It's one thing to score more, but to also become more efficient while doing so is rare. And it points to his increases not being a fluke. From that perspective, we should expect Green to come into next season being a more polished offensive player, and one that's due for a pay increase.

Obviously I'd love to have Green on as cheap of a deal as possible, but I don't see why many are balking at the idea that Green could become worth 4/80 by the beginning of the next summer. We'll see. I'm not going to try and bet against the guy since he's made consistent big strides year after year.

By the way, just to hammer it home, Green scored more total points, had more shots per game, more points per game, and was magnitudes more efficient than Caruso has been the last 2 previous seasons.

[SleepingHero]

https://twitter.com/bigknickenergy_/stat...93217?s=46&t=Fmdr94oXagcEyy75KJqaFg

Big Knick Energy (@BigKnickEnergy_)
Evan Fournier on his relationship with Tom Thibodeau

"I have nothing to say because I have none," Fournier said about rapport with the specialist."When he took me out of the five, he just told me he was going to try something else. Then at the first match of a road trip, he announced to me that I was leaving the rotation, and ciao."

[dirkfansince1998]

To double down on my earlier post about Caruso´s +/-.

http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm5?id=-2063477284

5-year RAPM (big sample size to adjust for outliers):

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Darryl Morey has fucked around for a long time and I think he's finally reach the "find out" stage.

[cow]

Well I suppose it depends on the expectation and scale of consistency.  Green last year wasn't a night in-night out 15 point a game guy. But piggybacking off of everyone else's comments, setting in stone a 22 year olds future production based off of his previous season is tricky at best and slightly obtuse at worst. 

Green has consistently gotten better each year, and has nearly doubled his offensive output year after year. Following that trend, he should average close to 18ppg next year. Of course that's unlikely, but it's not inconceivable (nor unlikely) that Green could average close to 15ppg based on his historical trends.

That also coincides with an increase of efficiency as well. It's one thing to score more, but to also become more efficient while doing so is rare. And it points to his increases not being a fluke. From that perspective, we should expect Green to come into next season being a more polished offensive player, and one that's due for a pay increase.

Obviously I'd love to have Green on as cheap of a deal as possible, but I don't see why many are balking at the idea that Green could become worth 4/80 by the beginning of the next summer. We'll see. I'm not going to try and bet against the guy since he's made consistent big strides year after year.

By the way, just to hammer it home, Green scored more total points, had more shots per game, more points per game, and was magnitudes more efficient than Caruso has been the last 2 previous seasons.

No one is setting what Josh is going to be in stone.  He's entering the last year of his contract.  Has three years of NBA experience, a year of college and some international experience.  We know he is a hard worker.  We've seen flashes of him using his A+ athleticism for spectacular results followed by him looking like a deer in the headlights.  We saw him be unplayable in the playoffs and thought, he'll take a leap next year and when that next year came and you thought he'd taken that leap, he went right back to being passive.  I don't need him to get better at this point.  He is a pesky defender, comfortable with the ball in his hands, makes smart cuts, passes pretty well and can shoot the rock.  What I need for him is to have confidence night-in and night-out.  He could earn a 4/80 contract and look like a bargain and he could also get a 4/40 contract that you'd regret.  The sad or frustrating part about this is that Josh belongs, he just doesn't realize it. I keep going back to the Spencer podcast with Pinson last year and Spencer trying to build Josh up when he walked by.

Just to hammer it home, I'd take Alex over Josh right now.  I know what I'm going to get from Alex every game, far less so than Josh.  Basketball is more than just stats.  I'm sure Wood had pretty nice stats the last few seasons too.

[SleepingHero]

Just to hammer it home, I'd take Alex over Josh right now.  I know what I'm going to get from Alex every game, far less so than Josh.  Basketball is more than just stats.  I'm sure Wood had pretty nice stats the last few seasons too.

Well trying to get back to the topic, I was trying to reply to the offensive consistency that you initially brought up. And factually Josh is a more consistent offensive player today despite his passiveness.

Hard to argue impact on offense without looking at raw stats. 

However shifting gears to what you brought up, I do think Caruso is more impactful today. He is a worlds better defender. But he isn't this 30 min a night kind of guy. He isn't even a consistent starter on his own team! He's 7 years older and is pretty injury prone with a consistent foot problem and hamstring issues. Even on the Lakers championship team he was a limited bench defender playing 20 mins a night. 

Despite his issues and limited offensive game, I still want Caruso. But not if it costs Green and/or a 1st. I just don't think he'd be worth nearly whatever the Bulls are asking. And I'd much rather run the risk of overpaying the 22 year old combo guard/forward that has shown consistent improvement year over year than to overpay for the defensive ace specialist that is about to hit 30. 

To each their own.

[The Jom]

To double down on my earlier post about Caruso´s +/-.

http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm5?id=-2063477284

5-year RAPM (big sample size to adjust for outliers):

This seems to me like a strange way to support your argument. It’s a combo of 2 very different stats—one entirely about offense and one entirely about defense. If we take the top 2 offenders (Dame and Kawhi), both outliers statistically, it’s pretty clear their max contracts are due to offense and not defense. If we look at the top 2 defenders (Alex and Derrick), both outliers too, it’s obviously not their offense that gets em paid, and obvious that their pay is nowhere close to any of the rest of the group, all of whom are way better offensively.

Yes, Josh today is closer to Alex and Dwight than to Dame and Kawhi in many, many ways. But if you’re suggesting he won’t get paid based on his offense, I’m not following the logic. And if you’re saying this combo stat is a fair way to value players, the guys who write the NBA contracts plainly don’t agree.

Or maybe I just misunderstand the point you’re making?

[mvossman]

To double down on my earlier post about Caruso´s +/-.

http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm5?id=-2063477284

5-year RAPM (big sample size to adjust for outliers):

I'm struggling with a stat that has Dwight Powell ranked 55 in the league and Luka ranked 83 (right next to KP).

[mvossman]

This seems to me like a strange way to support your argument. It’s a combo of 2 very different stats—one entirely about offense and one entirely about defense. If we take the top 2 offenders (Dame and Kawhi), both outliers statistically, it’s pretty clear their max contracts are due to offense and not defense. If we look at the top 2 defenders (Alex and Derrick), both outliers too, it’s obviously not their offense that gets em paid, and obvious that their pay is nowhere close to any of the rest of the group, all of whom are way better offensively.

Yes, Josh today is closer to Alex and Dwight than to Dame and Kawhi in many, many ways. But if you’re suggesting he won’t get paid based on his offense, I’m not following the logic. And if you’re saying this combo stat is a fair way to value players, the guys who write the NBA contracts plainly don’t agree.

Or maybe I just misunderstand the point you’re making?

The point he is making is Caruso is good.  That is showing his on court impact (which includes both offense and defense) and that Caruso defense is so good it makes up for his modest offense.  I just posted above some very questionable results from this analysis.  It appears there is too much noise in RAPM, even for a 5 year sample.  Its why the best comprehensive advanced stats (EPM, DPM) leverage something in addition to on/off.

[dirkfansince1998]

This seems to me like a strange way to support your argument. It’s a combo of 2 very different stats—one entirely about offense and one entirely about defense. If we take the top 2 offenders (Dame and Kawhi), both outliers statistically, it’s pretty clear their max contracts are due to offense and not defense. If we look at the top 2 defenders (Alex and Derrick), both outliers too, it’s obviously not their offense that gets em paid, and obvious that their pay is nowhere close to any of the rest of the group, all of whom are way better offensively.

Yes, Josh today is closer to Alex and Dwight than to Dame and Kawhi in many, many ways. But if you’re suggesting he won’t get paid based on his offense, I’m not following the logic. And if you’re saying this combo stat is a fair way to value players, the guys who write the NBA contracts plainly don’t agree.

Or maybe I just misunderstand the point you’re making?

Just pointing out that both Hardy and Green have a long way to go to even get into the conversation if we are looking at impact metrics. When I read that Green is more or less the same player and already more efficient on offense I start to question my sanity. Impact metrics are a good way to account for all the stuff that isn´t showing up in the boxscore.
As far as my overall interpretation of RAPM goes. In the same role as a first or second option on offense Caruso would obviously never be as good as the rest of the guys on the list. But in his role as glue guy and swiss-army knife he has a big impact on the game.

Going back to the initial trade proposal one would have to be really high on Green or Hardy (similar impact within the next three years) not to inlcude them in a potential trade package. Going back even further to Stein´s post from the deadline it explains why the Bulls asked for (probably still want) two first round picks in return.

[mvossman]

Just pointing out that both Hardy and Green have a long way to go to even get into the conversation if we are looking at impact metrics. When I read that Green is more or less the same player and already more efficient on offense I start to question my sanity. Impact metrics are a good way to account for all the stuff that isn´t showing up in the boxscore.
As far as my overall interpretation of RAPM goes. In the same role as a first or second option on offense Caruso would obviously never be as good as the rest of the guys on the list. But in his role as glue guy and swiss-army knife he has a big impact on the game.

Going back to the initial trade proposal one would have to be really high on Green or Hardy (similar impact within the next three years) not to inlcude them in a potential trade package. Going back even further to Stein´s post from the deadline it explains why the Bulls asked for (probably still want) two first round picks in return.

This reminds of Kamm's argument of how to look at on/off stuff.  Its about how well a player plays his role.  So the argument is not that Caruso is better than Luka, but that he plays his role better.  That is probably true when only looking at the regular season.