Trade & FA 2023-24: Booker Likes NYK? Vogel Out? Suns Imploding?

[F Gump]

Circling back around - now would you ....

Ayton-Wainright-Camara
Holmes-McGee-THJ

Can't happen until early Sept. Money is almost identical (only about 179K diff). 3-for-3 means no one has empty slot to fill afterwards, or a need to waive someone and eat their salary to make the bodies fit. Those may be the ONLY 3 that Phx can trade until Dec (except their big 3).

Very imperfect deal. It ignores all the posturing from both camps, about who is or isn't worth what, and what they will and won't do.

But it does a lot. Besides the right money and number of bodies being swapped, it solves (to some degree) "a starting C for Dallas" and "split Ayton into smaller pieces for easier maneuvering for PHX" while still (perhaps fairly) leaving both teams with other possible needs to deal with.

So, would you?

[Jason Terry]

What if Green wants a crazy number like 20 per?

Caruso is already everything we wish Green could become

Green
Mcgee
Both 2nds?
2028 swap?

More cap friendly as well

[KillerLeft]

What if Green wants a crazy number like 20 per?

Caruso is already everything we wish Green could become

Green
Mcgee
Both 2nds?
2028 swap?

More cap friendly as well

Too rich for my blood. I prefer the deal with Hardy and not too much draft capital.

[F Gump]

What if Green wants a crazy number like 20 per?

If that was the case, I suspect Mavs would have moved on. As you say, the trajectory on Green looks a lot like Caruso (if we assume things go right), and Caruso gets about 9.5M. A number like 20M is not even in the right universe.

[Scott41theMavs]

If that was the case, I suspect Mavs would have moved on. As you say, the trajectory on Green looks a lot like Caruso (if we assume things go right), and Caruso gets about 9.5M. A number like 20M is not even in the right universe.

Most folks are presuming at minimum 4/55 or so.

[Jason Terry]

Caruso
Holiday
Smart

It’s a short list

[mvossman]

Most folks are presuming at minimum 4/55 or so.

I wouldn't say minimum, but thats about right, and with inflation roughly equal to the 9.5 Caruso got.

[mvossman]

Caruso
Holiday
Smart

It’s a short list

What is that list?  Maybe if your focused solely on defense but then Thybulle belongs in that list.

I feel like folks are getting carried away with Caruso.  He scores 6 points a game, starts half his games at most and generally averages in the low 20s minutes wise.  That is a good role/rotational player.  Those other guys start every game and play well over 30 minutes a game.  They are in different leagues as players and I am skeptical Caruso could keep up with those guys defensively if had to play those minutes against starting units.  He is a really good defender, but I just don't think he is someone you spend major assets on.

[mvossman]

Circling back around - now would you ....

Ayton-Wainright-Camara
Holmes-McGee-THJ

Can't happen until early Sept. Money is almost identical (only about 179K diff). 3-for-3 means no one has empty slot to fill afterwards, or a need to waive someone and eat their salary to make the bodies fit. Those may be the ONLY 3 that Phx can trade until Dec (except their big 3).

Very imperfect deal. It ignores all the posturing from both camps, about who is or isn't worth what, and what they will and won't do.

But it does a lot. Besides the right money and number of bodies being swapped, it solves (to some degree) "a starting C for Dallas" and "split Ayton into smaller pieces for easier maneuvering for PHX" while still (perhaps fairly) leaving both teams with other possible needs to deal with.

So, would you?

This is another trade you would have to make due to value, which is why I don't see it happening.  When can Holmes be aggregated?

[F Gump]

Most folks are presuming at minimum 4/55 or so.

That may be true. But if we get away from the rose-colored glasses on him, and look at players with his type of game, even 4/55 is incredibly rich. In relation to what he's worth, look at Thybulle (10.5M). Or Caruso at 9.5M. Batum at 11.7M. And so on.

The reality of the new CBA economics is forcing teams to abandon the "everyone half-good gets a max" mentality and take a hard look at how much a player really offers and how he can fit into a division of limited payroll. If he gives you 9M of production, you CAN'T pay him 14M or so, because you just can't afford it. Hello, loyal hard-working class citizen Powell at 4M, not the (obviously bloated) MLE+ numbers of before. Bye-bye to Theo the Cheerleader, soaking up 2-3M of payroll but adding nothing on the floor. "Most folks" assumed Kyrie wouldn't accept any deal under 200M, and we see how that ended up.

Once they hit the end of their first contract, I think the days of paying for what you only hope a player can do are probably over. It seems to me we are more likely to see teams paying for what they know he can do based on what he has done, and assess versus how it much will cost to sign someone different.

[Jason Terry]

That may be true. But if we get away from the rose-colored glasses on him, and look at players with his type of game, even 4/55 is incredibly rich. In relation to what he's worth, look at Thybulle (10.5M). Or Caruso at 9.5M. Batum at 11.7M. And so on.

The reality of the new CBA economics is forcing teams to abandon the "everyone half-good gets a max" mentality and take a hard look at how much a player really offers and how he can fit into a division of limited payroll. If he gives you 9M of production, you CAN'T pay him 14M or so, because you just can't afford it. Hello, loyal hard-working class citizen Powell at 4M, not the (obviously bloated) MLE+ numbers of before. Bye-bye to Theo the Cheerleader, soaking up 2-3M of payroll but adding nothing on the floor. "Most folks" assumed Kyrie wouldn't accept any deal under 200M, and we see how that ended up.

Once they hit the end of their first contract, I think the days of paying for what you only hope a player can do are probably over. It seems to me we are more likely to see teams paying for what they know he can do based on what he has done, and assess versus how it much will cost to sign someone different.

I’m in total agreement with you on the reality you lay out. I think we get a MLE level deal done soon and Green is my favorite not named OMax. I have Post Traumatic Brunson Disorder . PTBD

[The Jom]

That may be true. But if we get away from the rose-colored glasses on him, and look at players with his type of game, even 4/55 is incredibly rich. In relation to what he's worth, look at Thybulle (10.5M). Or Caruso at 9.5M. Batum at 11.7M. And so on.

The reality of the new CBA economics is forcing teams to abandon the "everyone half-good gets a max" mentality and take a hard look at how much a player really offers and how he can fit into a division of limited payroll. If he gives you 9M of production, you CAN'T pay him 14M or so, because you just can't afford it. Hello, loyal hard-working class citizen Powell at 4M, not the (obviously bloated) MLE+ numbers of before. Bye-bye to Theo the Cheerleader, soaking up 2-3M of payroll but adding nothing on the floor. "Most folks" assumed Kyrie wouldn't accept any deal under 200M, and we see how that ended up.

Once they hit the end of their first contract, I think the days of paying for what you only hope a player can do are probably over. It seems to me we are more likely to see teams paying for what they know he can do based on what he has done, and assess versus how it much will cost to sign someone different.

Looks that way 2 weeks into the new CBA. Not convinced the market won’t adjust. And even if the trend continues for awhile, how long before these now-under-control costs lead to massive profits that likely precipitate another spending-spree era? 

Cycles, man. Cycles.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

Why are we discussing 22 yr. old Josh Green as if he is a finished product vs. Caruso who at age 29 almost certainly is. At 22 Caruso wasn’t even in the NBA, I think he was still at A&M and then played a year in G-League or whatever it was called back then. Josh nearly doubled Caruso’s scoring per game last season on 40.2% from 3 in similar minutes. Caruso shot 36.4 Caruso shot 45% from the field, a career high. Josh shot 53% on higher volume (2 more shots per game.)

Caruso is one of the best defenders in the game, I would love him here. But in a couple of years Josh will be two tiers better offensively than Caruso will ever be. Caruso will be on his last contract.

I still think Green has all-NBA defense potential with added knowledge, experience, strength and, importantly, reputation—so that he gets the benefit of the whistle more often. If he’s willing to sign an extension for 4yr-52m, I couldn’t say yes fast enough.

[F Gump]

Looks that way 2 weeks into the new CBA. Not convinced the market won’t adjust. And even if the trend continues for awhile, how long before these now-under-control costs lead to massive profits that likely precipitate another spending-spree era? 

Cycles, man. Cycles.

CBA.

It's a hard cap landscape, and bigger spending teams being forced to divide a limited pie among their players, that will be here until the CBA expires in 2030. There are mechanisms that apply only to over-apron teams that essentially work to force them to lower their payroll, mandating into the rules some literal inability to spend, and those are combined with tiered incentives that gives teams reasons to spend "just a bit less" to gain rewards that ensue by being below the next tier.

I agree that teams will be smarter in how they approach cuts, as they move forward. But there's no payroll point in which the bigger spenders aren't considerably incentivized to get their payroll a bit lower, and then another step lower, until you get below the tax line.

It's not a profit issue. It's a competitive balance thing, where teams start losing the ability to add talent. Each team has to figure out a way to navigate that, and "we'll just pay some tax" isn't a very good solution because of the roster-improving limits you start to face as you pass one apron, then another.

[The Jom]

It's not a profit issue. It's a competitive balance thing, where teams start losing the ability to add talent.

What I know about the CBA mostly comes from you. But I think you may have stated this a little too narrowly. Another part of the balance seems to be mortgaging the future to maximize the present (which isn’t new). I’m going to go out on a limb and say outrageous overpays aren’t entirely extinct.

[F Gump]

Why are we discussing 22 yr. old Josh Green as if he is a finished product vs. Caruso who at age 29 almost certainly is. At 22 Caruso wasn’t even in the NBA, I think he was still at A&M and then played a year in G-League or whatever it was called back then. Josh nearly doubled Caruso’s scoring per game last season on 40.2% from 3 in similar minutes. Caruso shot 36.4 Caruso shot 45% from the field, a career high. Josh shot 53% on higher volume (2 more shots per game.)

Caruso is one of the best defenders in the game, I would love him here. But in a couple of years Josh will be two tiers better offensively than Caruso will ever be. Caruso will be on his last contract.

I still think Green has all-NBA defense potential with added knowledge, experience, strength and, importantly, reputation—so that he gets the benefit of the whistle more often. If he’s willing to sign an extension for 4yr-52m, I couldn’t say yes fast enough.

That's a reasonable assessment in a lot of ways. At the same time, I'm not easily accepting that JG will suddenly be X or Y, that he has never been, and we pay the amount that's reasonable for THAT player that we wishfully hope will appear one day.

And if you want a player to comp offensively, do Austin Reaves, whose offensive production is way better, whose defense is similar or better, and who has only had 2 seasons to improve and looks like he will keep getting better. That's a 4/54 player in this market.

[F Gump]

What I know about the CBA mostly comes from you. But I think you may have stated this a little too narrowly. Another part of the balance seems to be mortgaging the future to maximize the present (which isn’t new). I’m going to go out on a limb and say outrageous overpays aren’t entirely extinct.

Thank you. And I do agree, that the rules are one thing, but their impact on behavior (and how teams try to game the system) is still to be written.

There are ALREADY wild overpays imo. See Rockets, Houston. Bad teams with huge cap room to spend, those will happen, and some are going to push the envelope. But those overpays imo are less likely to move the general market, and they do take a team out of the mix to overpay the next time.

The bigger issue I see is that the NBA put some real thought into preemptively closing the workarounds that would allow teams to keep and increase a bloated payroll. Lots of little things --
1 losing TPE's 
2 no MLE at all
3 no ability to aggregate 2+ players to get 1
4 must take less back in trade, can't raise payroll
5 can't stack minimum-salary players to get a more expensive (and presumably more talented) in return.
6 you pick at the bottom if you are over apron 2
7 you can't trade those picks
8 you can't use cash either.

If you draft/develop well and want to PAY YOUR OWN an inflated deal, you can do that. Otherwise, you are out of the game to replace anyone who gets away.

I think teams like GS, LAC, and PHX (and perhaps a couple others) will go as far as they can on the "bust the aprons" road, until their star talent ages out, because they have little choice. But I don't think it's sustainable. And with the way the new rules limit additions to payroll and roster flexibility in trying to get the next pieces you need, I think it will be hard for more teams to jump up and join them, or to want to.

[KillerLeft]

I’m no CBA expert, but what I learned the last time this happened, when fish was selling “nuclear winter”, is that the brunt of this will take place during the first couple of seasons. Kudos to the Mavs for striking right away and taking advantage of SAC’s poor planning, but the cap only goes up.

Even that Jerami Grant deal, which I hate, won’t be terrible by the time it expires. In fact, nothing signed this summer will look as bad as the last years of Dame, KAT, Gobert or Ayton, imo. The worst move of this summer might end up being that Sabonis extension, actually.

[Reunion Mav]

Looks that way 2 weeks into the new CBA. Not convinced the market won’t adjust. And even if the trend continues for awhile, how long before these now-under-control costs lead to massive profits that likely precipitate another spending-spree era? 

Cycles, man. Cycles.

I have been thinking since the new agreement came out that of all the players the over MLE guys really got hurt. The owners now get to balance their spending at their expense. The super Max guys still get paid though the number of not really maximum players will probably go down. I don’t think this cycle will go back. The owners and the players couldn’t do things in a balanced way which led to the Durant Warriors. The owners will never let that happen again IMO.

In addition recent attempts at super teams haven’t worked out well. Built from within teams like Denver look good moving forward. That is the positive incentive not to be tempted to over spend.

[cow]

But in a couple of years Josh will be two tiers better offensively than Caruso will ever be.