Trade & FA 2023-24: Booker Likes NYK? Vogel Out? Suns Imploding?

[KillerLeft]

Of course they would do it. LOL. You don´t trade 20 year olds with ALL-Star upside for limited roleplayers. Why you think literally every Dallas trade suggestion involves Hardy.

Well, I see the perspective you’re suggesting, but I’m not AS sure as you are that Hardy has All-Star potential. It’s possible, but I’d put the odds under 50/50. I certainly like his potential and am in no hurry to give him away (see my thoughts on any other suggestion involving Hardy this summer). But, I value the unprotected ‘27 more highly than I value Hardy, just for example. 

I think you can make an argument that Caruso is currently the best guard defender in the NBA. I’d want him WAAAAY more than Thybulle, that’s for sure. 

This is one I’d do.

[Kidnova]

Well, I see the perspective you’re suggesting, but I’m not AS sure as you are that Hardy has All-Star potential. It’s possible, but I’d put the odds under 50/50. I certainly like his potential and am in no hurry to give him away (see my thoughts on any other suggestion involving Hardy this summer). But, I value the unprotected ‘27 more highly than I value Hardy, just for example. 

I think you can make an argument that Caruso is currently the best guard defender in the NBA. I’d want him WAAAAY more than Thybulle, that’s for sure. 

This is one I’d do.

I like the Thybulle option because you weren't giving up anything to get him aside from cap space, not to mention he's 3 years younger with a much larger wingspan.  I'm okay with including Hardy in a trade if the return is good, but I don't think I'd pull the trigger on this if Caruso is the prize.

[mvossman]

Well, I see the perspective you’re suggesting, but I’m not AS sure as you are that Hardy has All-Star potential. It’s possible, but I’d put the odds under 50/50. I certainly like his potential and am in no hurry to give him away (see my thoughts on any other suggestion involving Hardy this summer). But, I value the unprotected ‘27 more highly than I value Hardy, just for example. 

I think you can make an argument that Caruso is currently the best guard defender in the NBA. I’d want him WAAAAY more than Thybulle, that’s for sure. 

This is one I’d do.

I'm surprised.  He is 29 and makes Thybulle and Green look aggressive on offense.  He takes less than 5 shots per 36.  Thats crazy!  His secondary playmaking helps a little, but I find it interesting that you were not excited about paying 11 to Thybulle but are willing to send Hardy out for Caruso.

[ItsGoTime]

https://clutchpoints.com/nba-rumors-bull...lex-caruso


Don´t think the asking price changed. Hardy alone won´t get it done.

Interesting since we’re asking for 4 FRPs for Hardy, they owe us, no?

[KillerLeft]

I'm surprised.  He is 29 and makes Thybulle and Green look aggressive on offense.  He takes less than 5 shots per 36.  Thats crazy!  His secondary playmaking helps a little, but I find it interesting that you were not excited about paying 11 to Thybulle but are willing to send Hardy out for Caruso.

Flatly, I don’t believe Thybulle is playable on a good team. For me, it’s that simple. 

Caruso being 29 does give me some pause. I didn’t think he was quite that old.

[omahen]

You might assume that the Mavs' asking price on Hardy would be 2 1sts, in which case maybe there is a value match. And the idea that Caruso is WORTH a pair of 1sts, for a player who only gives 5ppg, 3 rpg, 3 apg, that doesn't sound very realistic pricing even if he is a good defender.

The cap implications might be a bigger issue, however, with Caruso getting paid ~9.5M and up, whereas Hardy is only in the ~2M range. And if they did this trade, Mavs would be right at the tax line (only $89,400 under it, with 14 players) and almost certain to end up paying tax by the time they deal with injuries and stuff, which could cost Cuban down the road financially in several significant ways.

The deal idea included JaVale, so tax is not an issue

[SleepingHero]

I would do the hypothetical Caruso deal that BR wrote about, although it'd give me serious pause.

I've been a believer in Hardy since before his draft. He was number 1 on my board at 26 but I felt he was going to go mid lottery. The fact he fell to 36 AND the Mavs drafted him made me overjoyed.

I still think he's an incredible talent and I don't want to cap his ceiling, but I'm not super confident in his future all-star bid. But who knows? I think he's leaning closer to the JR Smith/Jordan Clarkson comp than the all-star version we want to see.

[dirkfansince1998]

+/- darling if I have ever seen one.

18/19: Lakers +4.6 on court +8.2 on/off (2nd behind LeBron)
19/20 "bubble" Lakers: +10.4 on court +7.1 on/off (2nd behind LeBron)
20/21 Lakers: +4.7 on court +3.2 on/off (3rd behind LeBron and AD)
21/22 Bulls: +4.9 on court +7.4 on/off (1st)
22/23 Bulls: +6.0 on court +7.2 on/off (2nd behind DJJ)


On a good or bad team. As a starter or with the bench unit. When Caruso is on the floor his team is outscoring the opponent.

[cow]

I would do the hypothetical Caruso deal that BR wrote about, although it'd give me serious pause.

I've been a believer in Hardy since before his draft. He was number 1 on my board at 26 but I felt he was going to go mid lottery. The fact he fell to 36 AND the Mavs drafted him made me overjoyed.

I still think he's an incredible talent and I don't want to cap his ceiling, but I'm not super confident in his future all-star bid. But who knows? I think he's leaning closer to the JR Smith/Jordan Clarkson comp than the all-star version we want to see.

With you.  I think his ceiling is 6MOTY which would still be an impressive accomplishment.  Maybe I'm a little disappointed in his summer league play.  I'd strongly consider the BR deal minus the draft pick. Alex is a two-way utility knife.

[SleepingHero]

Maybe this summer is going to be known as the one where Harden, Siakam, Dame AND Embiid all change teams...

[KillerLeft]

+/- darling if I have ever seen one.

18/19: Lakers +4.6 on court +8.2 on/off (2nd behind LeBron)
19/20 "bubble" Lakers: +10.4 on court +7.1 on/off (2nd behind LeBron)
20/21 Lakers: +4.7 on court +3.2 on/off (3rd behind LeBron and AD)
21/22 Bulls: +4.9 on court +7.4 on/off (1st)
22/23 Bulls: +6.0 on court +7.2 on/off (2nd behind DJJ)


On a good or bad team. As a starter or with the bench unit. When Caruso is on the floor his team is outscoring the opponent.

Yeah, I was super against him back when he was a free agent. Something about his dumb face just irks me. But, in retrospect, I must award your flowers. You were right, I was wrong. He is a difference making player.

[JamesConway912]

Re F Gump & bringing back Wood:

The moment Kleber goes down we loose the option to play five out. So yeah. He’d obviously be a big addition to this roster. That’s a HUGE tool for the playoffs. 

Doesn’t have to be Wood, but the type of player is needed. Bertans/KP are also gone. We basically lost the majority of our PF/C three point shooting.

[KillerLeft]

Re F Gump & bringing back Wood:

The moment Kleber goes down we loose the option to play five out. So yeah. He’d obviously be a big addition to this roster. That’s a HUGE tool for the playoffs. 

Doesn’t have to be Wood, but the type of player is needed. Bertans/KP are also gone. We basically lost the majority of our PF/C three point shooting.

I agree, of course. 

But, if Kidd refused to play him as a solo big last season, what makes us think he would do so this season? Personally, I would’ve used him this way almost exclusively, but it seems the Mavs just don’t like him that role.

[F Gump]

The deal idea included JaVale, so tax is not an issue

Nope, that's simply wrong.

Caruso makes more than $2M MORE than JM-Hardy combined, AND a 2-for-1 also requires the Mavs to fill an empty roster slot which at min salary is another more than $2M MORE (veteran minimum salary). The total of $4.025M added bumps the payroll for 14 players (league minimum roster size) to $165,204,590 which is just a sliver under the tax line.

Filling that 15th slot as a reward, or in an emergency due to injury, easily bumps the salary up past the tax line. And any attempt to stay just under the line all year would impact just about every player decision they had all year.

And, because JM is outgoing, they lose their "safety net" they've had all summer of being able to s-w JM and gain a big chunk of cap room.

While it's not necessarily a deal-killer to go over the tax line, the consequence of being a taxpayer is certain to be part of the discussion as to the "cost" being paid in such a trade offer, on top of Hardy.

[F Gump]

About the value of Caruso: Who wishes we had listened to Bleacher Report's hot take on Caruso to the Mavs back in April?

In an article with the statement that "These are the deals that need to happen, even if the teams involved may not be quite ready to admit it" we saw this:

"Dallas Mavericks [need to] acquire Alex Caruso from the Chicago Bulls for Reggie Bullock and a 2023 first-round pick ... The Caruso deal hinges on Dallas keeping its first-rounder, which won't be the case if it falls outside the top 10 on May 16 when the lottery is held. The Bulls would also have to embrace a more future-focused mentality to consider giving up such a valuable vet for a late lottery pick, although Bullock and his career 38.4 percent knockdown rate from deep could help a win-now version of the Bulls improve a dead-last ranking in three-point attempts."

They go on to point to Marc Stein's note that "Sources say that the Mavericks plan to explore trade prospects with the pick if they retain it to potentially seek more win-now talent."

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1007...-to-happen

Was that a better opportunity than this one?

[Chicagojk]

I am just not trading Hardy in any realistic trade brought up. You will not get value at this stage to the type of player he could be. Could be not will be. But if he continues to the develop having a second round pick or late first on a rookie deal is the best asset you can have in the league outside of a superstar in his prime. Right now he can be a piece in a solid deal. When he is 24 he could be a core piece on our team or the key piece in a star deal. If he doesn’t get there, he is a second round pick who will have a long journeyman career. But if he hits…..

[KillerLeft]

I am just not trading Hardy in any realistic trade brought up.  You will not get value at this stage to the type of player he could be.  Could be not will be.  But if he continues to the develop having a second round pick or late first on a rookie deal is the best asset you can have in the league outside of a superstar in his prime.  Right now he can be a piece in a solid deal.  When he is 24 he could be a core piece on our team or the key piece in a star deal.  If he doesn’t get there, he is a second round pick who will have a long journeyman career.  But if he hits…..

I don’t judge you for this thinking, I really don’t. It makes some sense, and I would definitely hold onto him in most negotiation situations. 

Having said that, I bet Cuban and Donnie regretted turning down that offer of a lottery pick for Roddy B on draft night back in the day.

[khaled1987]

Having said that, I bet Cuban and Donnie regretted turning down that offer of a lottery pick for Roddy B on draft night back in the day.

Was about to say that, offered the same pick that ended up Paul George.
Sometimes it is better to sell when there is illusion of value

[KillerLeft]

Was about to say that, offered the same pick that ended up Paul George.
Sometimes it is better to sell when there is illusion of value

Totally. It’s not about sticking to one extreme approach of hoarding young guys and picks anymore than it’s about turning them all into “win-now” vets ASAP. It’s not a philosophical binary (though I’d argue that in the Mavs’ situation, being frugal with their young talent is essential to get the roster to a healthier place). 

At the end of the day, what matters is being correct in these many value judgements more often than not.

[Chicagojk]

I don’t judge you for this thinking, I really don’t. It makes some sense, and I would definitely hold onto him in most negotiation situations. 

Having said that, I bet Cuban and Donnie regretted turning down that offer of a lottery pick for Roddy B on draft night back in the day.

I will say that I was never on the Roddy B bandwagon but point taken.

Talent evaluation is so important in the competitive nba.  You can’t have a guy for 4 years and decide he is limited only to go to up a few levels immediately once he leaves your team.