Trade & FA 2023-24: HOU Targeting Mikal Bridges again!| Mitchell is LAL #1 Target

[Dundalis]

I looked up PJW numbers on B-R, and frankly, I don't see what would make me want to pay him anywhere close to 20M a year. It's a big pile of meh.

FG% 44 meh
3p FG% 35 meh
Corner 3s 35 yuck
TS%  54 meh
Def Rtg 116 meh
Reb rate (where 20% is good) 8 yuck
Reb/36  5.4 yuck
PER 12.9 meh
Height (for a C/PF) 6-7 yuck

He's a spare at almost everything you'd want him to be good at -- shooting, defense, rebounding, height. I don't see a selling point, and for his asking price there should be a lot of them.

I would say you are looking at him in a year where he took on a significantly larger role on offense for a garbage Hornets team when Ball and Oubre Jnr missed a lot of games. He was basically the 1st/2nd option. When he had a role actually suited to his abilities (his first 3 years), all those numbers look much better. Which would obviously be more along the lines of what role he would play in Dallas.

He's probably not ideal at this point, but I think he's clearly better than Williams, is also just 24 years old, and you could easily relegate Williams to the bench unit which is basically what he's been his whole career. I mean it's not like anything about Grant Williams stats look particularly good for a starting role but everyone is fine penciling him in. If we can't get an Allen, Gafford or similar talent at the 5, I'd do the trade for him if we can avoid giving up any of the young guys.

[Chicagojk]

It's come to the point of realization that the Mavs are done making moves that matter this off-season. They are ~3.7M below the tax line with 14 roster spots and a rotation that makes sense on paper. Cuban was probably willing to pay tax on a piece that fit so well in Thybulle, although i suspect he would have eventually skirted under with a THJ and McGee trade.

FWIW I'm very happy with what they've done and even more excited about what they wanted to do, but didn't accomplish, because I see the vision - unlike last off-season.

It may be.  Or at least a wait and see approach once summer league ends.  I do wonder if they can get Richard out to Vegas and work out with the team before teams take a few weeks off after summer league.  It would be nice to see what he has left.   We saw so little of him last year that it is really hard for even scouts to know if he can still play.

[Chicagojk]

Charlotte has a weird way of doing things and a lot of times it turns out to be the wrong decision.

With PJ, I think they are just taking advantage of the RFA status. They probably don’t want to pay the 18 million PJ wants and with the money dried up there are not many other options. So either PJ swallows some pride and come in at 15-16 or signs the qualifying offer. It is either gamble on yourself or take the guaranteed money now. I would guess he winds up taking the security and signs a deal.

I do expect a move from charlotte this offseason. If Hayward was making like 25 million and if he could fit Hardaway and McGee, I would strongly consider that. I think Hayward the next year at MLE range could be a good value contract…if he can stay on the court.

[Dundalis]

It's come to the point of realization that the Mavs are done making moves that matter this off-season. They are ~3.7M below the tax line with 14 roster spots and a rotation that makes sense on paper. Cuban was probably willing to pay tax on a piece that fit so well in Thybulle, although i suspect he would have eventually skirted under with a THJ and McGee trade.

FWIW I'm very happy with what they've done and even more excited about what they wanted to do, but didn't accomplish, because I see the vision - unlike last off-season.

It feels like there are still some big moves to be made by other teams though, like Dame and maybe Harden. There will surely be domino effects if big trades take place there that perhaps the Mavs are waiting to take advantage of. To me it feels like the roster moves the Mavs have made only interlock properly if another move is made. As it currently stands I think the roster is pretty unbalanced, and moves like Williams and Seth don't make as much sense to me without further moves.

[Chicagojk]

It may be.  Or at least a wait and see approach once summer league ends.  I do wonder if they can get Richard out to Vegas and work out with the team before teams take a few weeks off after summer league.  It would be nice to see what he has left.   We saw so little of him last year that it is really hard for even scouts to know if he can still play.

Let me add, maybe something happens before the Williams trade is official.  I find it very odd there has been no reporting what picks, if any, we are getting back.   I just have trouble thinking it leads to any additional meaningful trade.

[omahen]

It's come to the point of realization that the Mavs are done making moves that matter this off-season. 

More or less agree, but I guess they will still do something. The minimum move I expect is to dump McGee to a cap space team and perhaps bring in a wing like Jones Jr for max BAE level salary. Although at this stage, I am not sure I would be wasting assets just to dump McGee. 

For bigger moves, the only option I think could happen is if they enter as a third team in one of those big name trades. In any case, it will be difficult to deal Holmes, while trading THJ for center makes roster somehow uneven (too many overpaid centers again in that scenario). As I said before, Mavs problem is they don't have expiring salaries anymore. I doubt a serious deal could be done without including 2027 pick. 

Roster as it is, is not really any better than last season, I am affraid. Defense will still be a huge challenge, as Green and now Williams are the only two guys on the roster that qualify as ready to play above average defenders. Rookies showed some promise, but I don't expect much from them this season. Center position remains very bad. I liked Holmes but I am not too optimistic he can be a contender level center, especially on defense. THJ is still an odd fit. Overpaid for a reserve role, only works well on offense when playing with Luka, but doesn't provide the plus defense needed to play with Luka. Unless the young guys take big steps, I am affraid how the season will look like. Of course there is more optimism on a medium term with young guys developing, but is also a fear about the dynamics of the two stars. Irving is getting old and Luka could get even more unhappy.

[Chicagojk]

Found it interesting checking out some Thunder boards of what they do with their roster. They have way too many on their roster. I think most want to waive Bertans, but I can’t see that happening as his 5 million expiring next year could prove valuable. A lot were think Jeremiah Robinson Earl, Garuda and TyTy could be waived. I would be interested in any of those, especially JRE or Garuda.

What an offseason for TyTy and Garuba.

[Smitty]

It feels like there are still some big moves to be made by other teams though, like Dame and maybe Harden. There will surely be domino effects if big trades take place there that perhaps the Mavs are waiting to take advantage of. To me it feels like the roster moves the Mavs have made only interlock properly if another move is made. As it currently stands I think the roster is pretty unbalanced, and moves like Williams and Seth don't make as much sense to me without further moves.

I agree that it’s possible Mavs could be a 3rd or 4th team in the big trades but I also don’t see them doing anything that takes them over the tax line unless it’s a significant improvement. The only real tradable pieces from the Mavs pov are THJ and McGee. I just don’t see a significant return there. 

The roster seems balanced to me. Of course we’d want all-stars at every position and some sure things here and there but I think overall they have what they need.

Irving | Curry | Exum
Green | Hardy
Luka | THJ
Williams | OMax
Holmes | Maxi | Lively-Powell-McGee

Trading McGee for a minimum level guy or using his contract up to 6-7M for another wing makes sense, for injuries and depth during the regular season.

[Dundalis]

I agree that it’s possible Mavs could be a 3rd or 4th team in the big trades but I also don’t see them doing anything that takes them over the tax line unless it’s a significant improvement. The only real tradable pieces from the Mavs pov are THJ and McGee. I just don’t see a significant return there. 

The roster seems balanced to me. Of course we’d want all-stars at every position and some sure things here and there but I think overall they have what they need.

Irving | Curry | Exum
Green | Hardy
Luka | THJ
Williams | OMax
Holmes | Maxi | Lively-Powell-McGee

Trading McGee for a minimum level guy or using his contract up to 6-7M for another wing makes sense, for injuries and depth during the regular season.

The starting lineup defensively is not ideal whatsoever. Green can't defend up and therefore I don't think is particularly ideal in the switching defense we want to play and obviously Williams is undersized. He can defend up obviously, but he would hold up much better with a big stout 5 next to him IMO. He's always played in a system with other great defenders in Boston. I think he will get taken advantage of much more than we expect in this kind of lineup.

Basically I think this team is going to be very reliant on Omax being a lot more ready than is ideal to step in and play a lot of minutes as our switchable big wing. If that doesn't happen I just feel like we are still going to have significant problems defensively, lacking significant size and flexibility at almost every position. I can see us barely moving up at all in the defensive ratings vs last year. This is a lineup for 2-3 years down the line, not one that looks to be particularly in the mix next season. Unless we wanna rely on just outscoring everybody, which we know isn't a good recipe for playoff success.

[omahen]

If Hayward was making like 25 million and if he could fit Hardaway and McGee

I think Hayward is definitely better than THJ/McGee, despite his constant health issues. But, I am not sure Charlotte would even consider dealing him for two long term deals. His expiring salary has more value and they might have same MLE ideas for themselves.

Once before I mentioned Dort. OKC has 21 players under contract. If they waive Gay, Oladipo (both will be almost certainly waived), Bertans (are they eating his guaranteed salary for next season?), their two unguaranteed guys (Wiggins, Isaiah Joe), they still need to dump another young player. Dort would be an awesome point of attack defender and it is getting somewhat crowded in OKC. This is their rotation:

PG: SGA, Wallace, Micic (didn't come over to be a third PG - these three guys will take a ton if not all of SG minutes)
SG and SF: Dort, Giddey, J.Williams, Dieng (needs minutes) - these guys will also take PF minutes 
PF: K. Williams, Poku, 
C: Holmgren, J. Williams

It might make sense to consolidate some of that talent into future assets (not enough minutes for everyone). So, would you consider THJ, McGee, 2027 for Dort and whatever 2 or 3 end of bench young guys?

[Dundalis]

I think Hayward is definitely better than THJ/McGee, despite his constant health issues. But, I am not sure Charlotte would even consider dealing him for two long term deals. His expiring salary has more value and they might have same MLE ideas for themselves.

Once before I mentioned Dort. OKC has 21 players under contract. If they waive Gay, Oladipo (both will be almost certainly waived), Bertans (are they eating his guaranteed salary for next season?), their two unguaranteed guys (Wiggins, Isaiah Joe), they still need to dump another young player. Dort would be an awesome point of attack defender and it is getting somewhat crowded in OKC. This is their rotation:

PG: SGA, Wallace, Micic (didn't come over to be a third PG - these three guys will take a ton if not all of SG minutes)
SG and SF: Dort, Giddey, J.Williams, Dieng (needs minutes) - these guys will also take PF minutes 
PF: K. Williams, Poku, 
C: Holmgren, J. Williams

It might make sense to consolidate some of that talent into future assets (not enough minutes for everyone). So, would you consider THJ, McGee, 2027 for Dort and whatever 2 or 3 end of bench young guys?

Im not giving up a first for a 6'3 guy who can't shoot, no matter his defense.

[Smitty]

The starting lineup defensively is not ideal whatsoever. Green can't defend up and therefore I don't think is particularly ideal in the switching defense we want to play and obviously Williams is undersized. He can defend up obviously, but he would hold up much better with a big stout 5 next to him IMO. He's always played in a system with other great defenders in Boston. I think he will get taken advantage of much more than we expect in this kind of lineup.

Basically I think this team is going to be very reliant on Omax being a lot more ready than is ideal to step in and play a lot of minutes as our switchable big wing. If that doesn't happen I just feel like we are still going to have significant problems defensively, lacking significant size and flexibility at almost every position. I can see us barely moving up at all in the defensive ratings vs last year. This is a lineup for 2-3 years down the line, not one that looks to be particularly in the mix next season. Unless we wanna rely on just outscoring everybody, which we know isn't a good recipe for playoff success.

You and I see it differently. I think surrounding Kyrie/Luka with 3 plus defenders is the right way to go. Holmes, Williams and Green are all plus defenders. 

Also your bench unit is very balanced with 3 scorers in Curry/Hardy/THJ and 2 plus defenders in Omax/Maxi.

I see no size issue with the starting LU

Kyrie 6’2”
Green 6’5”
Luka 6’7”
Williams 6’6”
Holmes 6’10”

[Dundalis]

You and I see it differently. I think surround Kyrie/Luka with 3 plus defenders is the right way to go. Holmes, Williams and Green are all plus defenders. 

Also your bench unit is very balanced with 3 scores in Curry/Hardy/THJ and 2 plus defenders in Omax/Maxi.

I see no size issue with the starting LU

Kyrie 6’2”
Green 6’5”
Luka 6’7”
Williams 6’6
Holmes 6’10”

It's not about whether they are plus defenders, or even just height. They have to be versatile highly switchable defenders because of the lack of defensive versatility of Kyrie and Luka. That requires a significantly higher load defensively on the wings that play with them than normal. Green can't defend up. You put him on someone a couple inches taller than him he was consistently overwhelmed last year and looked terrible. Williams defends up well but I don't care how good you defend up, a 6'6 power forward can be taken advantage of by much bigger power forwards, especially if they don't have a reliable defensive anchor to clean up their mistakes, which Richaun Holmes is not. Relying on a guy who has done nothing for two years for anything production wise (much less simply reverting to what he used to be) is a problem in and of itself. Totally understand his personal situation, but that doesn't simply mean he goes back to the 20-21 version. He's never been a particularly high level defender anyway, just a solid weakside shot blocker in the McGee mold (which defensive metrics always seem to rate super high in and of itself).

Purely from a defensive standpoint, this lineup is pretty much no better than the starting lineup we had to start the season last year. We were terrible defensively even before moving out DFS and bringing in Kyrie.

As for the bench unit you are relying on rookies and an old injury prone player to hold it up defensively. None of this is geared to significantly improving the defense for next season, as opposed to year 2-3 from now.

[Chicagojk]

For someone who is not itching to bring back DFS, I would gladly trade Hardaway for DFS. I think they are similar tier of players. DFS would just fit better. I just don’t believe this would appeal to the Nets.

[Reunion Mav]

If it makes you feel any better, Holmes was the 16th ranked center by 538’s Raptor WAR measure two seasons ago when he actually played (Powell was 30th last season).  If you look at EPM, Powell’s 83 ranks ahead of 12 of the guys on your list.  I’m not going to argue that Powell is the 18th best center based on that single metric.  

I’ll say what I’ve always said.  Powell is one of the best backup centers in the league.  He has a skill set that is hard to replicate (being consistently in the 90+ percentile as a roll-man means by definition that you are really good at it).  I’ve argued that the team wins when he plays (+6.2 on court last season and +9.3 On-Off) and ultimately the goal here is winning games rather than individual stats.  He shoots incredibly efficiently (which is part of why the advanced stats love him, WS = 5.3).  

The offense is better when he plays (7.5 points) and the defense is better when he plays (-2.4).  Both of those numbers are from 82games.com.   Now, 82games.com shows he gets absolutely brutalized by his direct opponent at center.  The dichotomy between getting abused and still winning is part of what makes Powell so difficult to grade.  Same goes for rebounding.  He’s terrible at it from a totals standpoint.  But, when he plays the team gets 49.8 percent of all rebounds and when he doesn’t play the team gets 45.5 percent.  BTW, that is much better than the 18/10 guy so many here love (team rebounding goes down when he plays…so does the winning).  I’d love Powell to be flashier and put up better individual numbers.  But the reason he keeps getting minutes is the team does TEAM things better when he is on the court.

Very well done. The stats you use here do the best job I’ve seen describing our smart and liked by the players Stanford man (and future team executive).  He is usually in the right place, boxes out his guy so others like Luka can rebound. He tips a lot of balls because getting the ball himself is a weakness. He is a descent perimeter defender for a center and doesn’t get played off the floor for his perimeter defense. He does get played off by his other limitations sometimes so….we have to really develop Holmes and hopefully our future answer at center. 

I foresee center rotation being determined by matchups and who is playing well at center. It will require good coaching. It won’t be easy but watching certain rotation TEAM progress this year will be very important. 

Dwight Powell brings an incredible bargain as part of the center rotation. He does defend certain players very well. One surprising one is KAT I’ve watched that match up multiple times. He can make Townes pass it and destroy their play. 

Powell hate needs to go away and replaced with strong support for whoever we end up with at center.

[Smitty]

It's not about whether they are plus defenders, or even just height. They have to be versatile highly switchable defenders because of the lack of defensive versatility of Kyrie and Luka. That requires a significantly higher load defensively on the wings that play with them than normal. Green can't defend up. You put him on someone a couple inches taller than him he was consistently overwhelmed last year and looked terrible. Williams defends up well but I don't care how good you defend up, a 6'6 power forward can be taken advantage of by much bigger power forwards, especially if they don't have a reliable defensive anchor to clean up their mistakes, which Richaun Holmes is not. Relying on a guy who has done nothing for two years for anything production wise (much less simply reverting to what he used to be) is a problem in and of itself. Totally understand his personal situation, but that doesn't simply mean he goes back to the 20-21 version. He's never been a particularly high level defender anyway, just a solid weakside shot blocker in the McGee mold (which defensive metrics always seem to rate super high in and of itself).

Purely from a defensive standpoint, this lineup is pretty much no better than the starting lineup we had to start the season last year. We were terrible defensively even before moving out DFS and bringing in Kyrie.

As for the bench unit you are relying on rookies and an old injury prone player to hold it up defensively. None of this is geared to significantly improving the defense for next season, as opposed to year 2-3 from now.

Not every team in the league but Green can guard 1-3 just fine and Williams can guard 3-5. Luka and Kyrie are what they are. IF you get a motivated Holmes he can fit right in. To me that’s the only real question mark with the starting LU and why I see Nico waiting until the TDL to address that need if he thinks they are a legit starting center away from contention. 

In the end, this team goes as Luka and Kyrie go. If it works - I see them addressing their needs. If it doesn’t, then they may pivot to trading Kyrie?

[mvossman]

The starting lineup defensively is not ideal whatsoever. Green can't defend up and therefore I don't think is particularly ideal in the switching defense we want to play and obviously Williams is undersized. He can defend up obviously, but he would hold up much better with a big stout 5 next to him IMO. He's always played in a system with other great defenders in Boston. I think he will get taken advantage of much more than we expect in this kind of lineup.

Basically I think this team is going to be very reliant on Omax being a lot more ready than is ideal to step in and play a lot of minutes as our switchable big wing. If that doesn't happen I just feel like we are still going to have significant problems defensively, lacking significant size and flexibility at almost every position. I can see us barely moving up at all in the defensive ratings vs last year. This is a lineup for 2-3 years down the line, not one that looks to be particularly in the mix next season. Unless we wanna rely on just outscoring everybody, which we know isn't a good recipe for playoff success.

Not sure I understand the Green comment?  He is our point of attack defender.  He guards 1-3.  You are not going to have everyone on the team guard 1-5.  He is at least as good if not better than what Bullock was 2 seasons ago.  Williams is basically taking on the Dorian role (who was also undersized).  I would say this defense looks like it will be roughly what it was two seasons ago, which is a huge upgrade from last season.

[Mavs2021]

If it makes you feel any better, Holmes was the 16th ranked center by 538’s Raptor WAR measure two seasons ago when he actually played (Powell was 30th last season).  If you look at EPM, Powell’s 83 ranks ahead of 12 of the guys on your list.  I’m not going to argue that Powell is the 18th best center based on that single metric.  

I’ll say what I’ve always said.  Powell is one of the best backup centers in the league.  He has a skill set that is hard to replicate (being consistently in the 90+ percentile as a roll-man means by definition that you are really good at it).  I’ve argued that the team wins when he plays (+6.2 on court last season and +9.3 On-Off) and ultimately the goal here is winning games rather than individual stats.  He shoots incredibly efficiently (which is part of why the advanced stats love him, WS = 5.3).  

The offense is better when he plays (7.5 points) and the defense is better when he plays (-2.4).  Both of those numbers are from 82games.com.   Now, 82games.com shows he gets absolutely brutalized by his direct opponent at center.  The dichotomy between getting abused and still winning is part of what makes Powell so difficult to grade.  Same goes for rebounding.  He’s terrible at it from a totals standpoint.  But, when he plays the team gets 49.8 percent of all rebounds and when he doesn’t play the team gets 45.5 percent.  BTW, that is much better than the 18/10 guy so many here love (team rebounding goes down when he plays…so does the winning).  I’d love Powell to be flashier and put up better individual numbers.  But the reason he keeps getting minutes is the team does TEAM things better when he is on the court.

The problem is these are largely regular season stats. No opposing coaches really give a flying f*** about Dwight Powell. And when the play-offs roll around their Dwight Powell schemes take 15 seconds: Stop the lob pass. The end. The only times we won play-off series with Dwight was when the whole team shot the lights out for a few rounds until the Warriors ran a lay-up/Looney abuse drill on us in the WCFs.

Advanced stats need to be put into context and they can´t account for everything. You wouldn´t win five regular season games with five Dwight Powell, even if they are all advanced stats winning players.

[mvossman]

The problem is these are largely regular season stats. No opposing coaches really give a flying f*** about Dwight Powell. And when the play-offs roll around their Dwight Powell schemes take 15 seconds: Stop the lob pass. The end. The only times we won play-off series with Dwight was when the whole team shot the lights out for a few rounds until the Warriors ran a lay-up/Looney abuse drill on us in the WCFs.

Advanced stats need to be put into context and they can´t account for everything. You wouldn´t win five regular season games with five Dwight Powell, even if they are all advanced stats winning players.

There is some truth to this, but if you told me I could get a center that can provide a positive impact for 15-20 minutes a game in the regular season, but will more limited in the playoffs for one million over the min, I would take it.  That is not even taking into account the character aspect of it.

[Smitty]

There is some truth to this, but if you told me I could get a center that can provide a positive impact for 15-20 minutes a game in the regular season, but will more limited in the playoffs for one million over the min, I would take it.  That is not even taking into account the character aspect of it.

He will make less than McGee. There is no complaint!