Trade & FA 2023-24: HOU Targeting Mikal Bridges again!| Mitchell is LAL #1 Target

[F Gump]

Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn
·
41m
The 76ers are matching Paul Reed’s three-year, $23M offer sheet with the Jazz, sources tell ESPN. Per sheet’s terms, Sixers must guarantee last two years of Reed’s deal if they win the opening round of playoffs this season.

Without a salary-shedding move, Philly is now destined to be over Apron 1 this year.

[F Gump]

It seems quite possible the Mavs weighed both trade demands and salary demands, and then that led them to opt for G Will over PJW. G Will cost a swap (not an unprotected 1st) and 4 yr 54M (rather than potentially 4 yr 77M). That's a huge difference on both fronts and they matter.

[Scott41theMavs]

It seems quite possible the Mavs weighed both trade demands and salary demands, and then that led them to opt for G Will over PJW. G Will cost a swap (not an unprotected 1st) and 4 yr 54M (rather than potentially 4 yr 77M). That's a huge difference on both fronts and they matter.

A suggestion was made in the Discord chat about trading with the Lakers for Vanderbilt. That would go a long way toward quelling my disappointment that the Mavs won't go get PJ... although I am still concerned about the Mavs having enough reliable scoring if THJ is outgoing, and PJ would address that in ways Vandy does not. In any event, even with a Vandy trade, we'd still be short a starting center (the current platoon isn't good enough given Lively's learning curve) and a third playmaker (Seth is great as a third playmaker for most teams, but not as a second when Kyrie takes his annual vacation).

[DanSchwartzgan]

Let's work with the THJ + 2nd concept to see what it looks like.

If CHA intends to keep Oubre or his rights (and they seemed to like what he gave them last season), 

I’m not sure that is true about Oubre.  According to Jake Fischer, he’s only drawing interest at the minimum.  No Oubre hold means no BYC for Charlotte and much easier trade matching at a lower number (which is also the number Stein has reported).

[KillerLeft]

A suggestion was made in the Discord chat about trading with the Lakers for Vanderbilt. That would go a long way toward quelling my disappointment that the Mavs won't go get PJ... although I am still concerned about the Mavs having enough reliable scoring if THJ is outgoing, and PJ would address that in ways Vandy does not. In any event, even with a Vandy trade, we'd still be short a starting center (the current platoon isn't good enough given Lively's learning curve) and a third playmaker (Seth is great as a third playmaker for most teams, but not as a second when Kyrie takes his annual vacation).

I like Vanderbilt, too. Same problem as PJW, at this point. It’s no longer a hole that demands solving at the cost of acquiring him. Also, not sure he’s available.

[F Gump]

I’m not sure that is true about Oubre.  According to Jake Fischer, he’s only drawing interest at the minimum.  No Oubre hold means no BYC for Charlotte and much easier trade matching at a lower number (which is also the number Stein has reported).

What do you mean by "the number Stein has reported" since there's no deal to report? I heard he's asking for 4/$80M (which would be a deal that could start at about 18.6M), and which in total would be BIGGER than the numbers I was talking about anyhow.

I've heard different than JF on Oubre and CHA, but maybe the info was not reliable. That wouldn't bother me, as an easier path to PJW is better, of course, if that's an option.

But either way, there's no question DAL is very dismissive of the path to get him, for whatever reason (even if my guess at their possible path to get him isn't the right one). So it's all kinda moot.

[Mavs2021]

One potential issue with PJW would be the contract it would take. Or maybe not, depending on your view of his worth.

Let's work with the THJ + 2nd concept to see what it looks like.

If CHA intends to keep Oubre or his rights (and they seemed to like what he gave them last season), the snt match for PJW gets tricky because of Base Year issues. The smallest number you could pay him in that swap would be a starting salary of $20,795,456. If you're keeping score, that does land the Mavs under the tax line by almost $2M.

If you did max-declining salaries, the deal is either 3 yrs/$59,267,050 or 4 yrs/$76,943,187.

Is he worth that sort of number, in this NBA economy? With a hard cap world, that question really matters, if you don't want to kill your roster-building options ahead. And if you're keeping Green, he's going to have a sizable salary jump next season that has to be part of that equation.

The question to ask is how much of an improvement would he offer, at a position that seems to be fairly well stocked already for both now and the future (Maxi, GWill, Prosper). And he's neither the C nor the wing that the Mavs are looking for, so now how do you navigate those waters?

Scoring averages of our whole PF/C rotation last season.

Powell 6.7 PPG
Kleber 5.9 PPG
Williams 5.1 PPG
McGee 4.4 PPG
Holmes 3.1 PPG
Lively N/A
Omax N/A

....that´s how much improvement the 24 year old Washington would bring.

Also regardless of Charlotte coming down from his ludicrous S&T demands, you nurture the relationship now and you might be able to make the (sign&)trade later.

[F Gump]

....that´s how much improvement the 24 year old Washington would bring.
 

I looked up PJW numbers on B-R, and frankly, I don't see what would make me want to pay him anywhere close to 20M a year. It's a big pile of meh.

FG% 44 meh
3p FG% 35 meh
Corner 3s 35 yuck
TS%  54 meh
Def Rtg 116 meh
Reb rate (where 20% is good) 8 yuck
Reb/36  5.4 yuck
PER 12.9 meh
Height (for a C/PF) 6-7 yuck

He's a spare at almost everything you'd want him to be good at -- shooting, defense, rebounding, height. I don't see a selling point, and for his asking price there should be a lot of them.

[SleepingHero]

I saw a tweet showing the centers in the southwest division and it had me inspired to look at every teams predicted starting center if the season started today:

West:
DEN: Jokic
MEM: Adams
SAC: Sabonis
PHX: Ayton
LAC: Zubac
GSW: Looney
LAL: Davis
MIN: Gobert
NOP: Valanciunas
OKC: Holmgren 
DAL: Powell
UTA: Kessler
POR: Nurkic
HOU: Sengun
SAS: Wenbanyama

East:
MIL: Lopez
BOS: Porzingis
PHI: Embiid
CLE: Allen
NYK: Robinson
BRK: Claxton
ATL: Capela
MIA: Adebayo
TOR: Poeltl
CHI: Vucevic
IND: Turner
WAS: Gafford
ORL: Carter Jr.
CHA: Williams
DET: Wiseman/Duren


Do the Mavs have possibly the worst starting center in the entire league? Does Holmes vault them above anyone that Powell can't?

[DanSchwartzgan]

What do you mean by "the number Stein has reported" since there's no deal to report? I heard he's asking for 4/$80M (which would be a deal that could start at about 18.6M), and which in total would be BIGGER than the numbers I was talking about anyhow.

Stein reported $18mm per year was what he wants.  That’s what you get on a 3 or 4 year if you start at his cap hold of $17.4mm.  Either 3/$54 or 4/$72.  Starting at $17.4mm is significantly easier to swallow than the number that defeats BYC at $20.8mm.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I saw a tweet showing the centers in the southwest division and it had me inspired to look at every teams predicted starting center if the season started today:


DAL: Powell

Do the Mavs have possibly the worst starting center in the entire league? Does Holmes vault them above anyone that Powell can't?

If it makes you feel any better, Holmes was the 16th ranked center by 538’s Raptor WAR measure two seasons ago when he actually played (Powell was 30th last season).  If you look at EPM, Powell’s 83 ranks ahead of 12 of the guys on your list.  I’m not going to argue that Powell is the 18th best center based on that single metric.  

I’ll say what I’ve always said.  Powell is one of the best backup centers in the league.  He has a skill set that is hard to replicate (being consistently in the 90+ percentile as a roll-man means by definition that you are really good at it).  I’ve argued that the team wins when he plays (+6.2 on court last season and +9.3 On-Off) and ultimately the goal here is winning games rather than individual stats.  He shoots incredibly efficiently (which is part of why the advanced stats love him, WS = 5.3).  

The offense is better when he plays (7.5 points) and the defense is better when he plays (-2.4).  Both of those numbers are from 82games.com.   Now, 82games.com shows he gets absolutely brutalized by his direct opponent at center.  The dichotomy between getting abused and still winning is part of what makes Powell so difficult to grade.  Same goes for rebounding.  He’s terrible at it from a totals standpoint.  But, when he plays the team gets 49.8 percent of all rebounds and when he doesn’t play the team gets 45.5 percent.  BTW, that is much better than the 18/10 guy so many here love (team rebounding goes down when he plays…so does the winning).  I’d love Powell to be flashier and put up better individual numbers.  But the reason he keeps getting minutes is the team does TEAM things better when he is on the court.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

A suggestion was made in the Discord chat about trading with the Lakers for Vanderbilt. That would go a long way toward quelling my disappointment that the Mavs won't go get PJ... although I am still concerned about the Mavs having enough reliable scoring if THJ is outgoing, and PJ would address that in ways Vandy does not. In any event, even with a Vandy trade, we'd still be short a starting center (the current platoon isn't good enough given Lively's learning curve) and a third playmaker (Seth is great as a third playmaker for most teams, but not as a second when Kyrie takes his annual vacation).

You are correct.  Every great team has at least 2 superstars and 2 players who when their number is called can get you 20 on any night.  I would say we have THJ for that role and Hardy, but Hardy can't be *that relied upon at this point.

...yet another reason why resigning Wood makes sense if we strike out on adding a quality big.

[surfpuckmd]

If it makes you feel any better, Holmes was the 16th ranked center by 538’s Raptor WAR measure two seasons ago when he actually played (Powell was 30th last season).  If you look at EPM, Powell’s 83 ranks ahead of 12 of the guys on your list.  I’m not going to argue that Powell is the 18th best center based on that single metric.  

I’ll say what I’ve always said.  Powell is one of the best backup centers in the league.  He has a skill set that is hard to replicate (being consistently in the 90+ percentile as a roll-man means by definition that you are really good at it).  I’ve argued that the team wins when he plays (+6.2 on court last season and +9.3 On-Off) and ultimately the goal here is winning games rather than individual stats.  He shoots incredibly efficiently (which is part of why the advanced stats love him, WS = 5.3).  

The offense is better when he plays (7.5 points) and the defense is better when he plays (-2.4).  Both of those numbers are from 82games.com.   Now, 82games.com shows he gets absolutely brutalized by his direct opponent at center.  The dichotomy between getting abused and still winning is part of what makes Powell so difficult to grade.  Same goes for rebounding.  He’s terrible at it from a totals standpoint.  But, when he plays the team gets 49.8 percent of all rebounds and when he doesn’t play the team gets 45.5 percent.  BTW, that is much better than the 18/10 guy so many here love (team rebounding goes down when he plays…so does the winning).  I’d love Powell to be flashier and put up better individual numbers.  But the reason he keeps getting minutes is the team does TEAM things better when he is on the court.

I agree that Dwight Powell is a winning player and appreciate this defense of him.  I have similar thoughts about Tim Hardaway Jr. and I don’t understand why the Mavericks now seem desperate to trade him.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

Apparently the Hornets want a good player and a 1st. CBAMavs thinks it would be THJ, Green and a 1st. I don't want him that bad.

https://twitter.com/CBAMavs/status/1678221164953387010

LOL.
That's insulting.

Green alone is better than PJ.

[Chicagojk]

I agree that Dwight Powell is a winning player and appreciate this defense of him.  I have similar thoughts about Tim Hardaway Jr. and I don’t understand why the Mavericks now seem desperate to trade him.

Who knows how hard they are trying to move Hardaway.  It does seem like there is a lot of smoke though.

I think for Hardaway is he duplicates what we have on our roster and then there is a size issue.   He is probably a better player than Hardy right now, but I believe Dallas thinks they have something and Hardy is going to get 20 plus minutes next year.  Those minutes were Hardaway’s last year.   The second issue is size.  If Hardy is getting 20 plus a night that leaves the only opening SF minutes.   If Green and Hardaway are eating up all your SF minutes, that just leaves you a pretty small team.   

I would not move him at all costs though.   He is still a good player and his value should go up this year and next offseason.    He may be the best short term option at SF too.

[Okstate819]

I like Vanderbilt, too. Same problem as PJW, at this point. It’s no longer a hole that demands the solving at the cost of acquiring him. Also, not sure he’s available.

Small disagree here. Vanderbilt plays a different role. He’s more similar to Thybulle as a capable point of attack defender but just happens to have size, I think above all they want  someone besides just Green to throw at the Curry, Dame, Booker, Morant, Fox, Murray, Edwards, Shai types. GW covers the Kawhi, PG, KD wings

Edit: He’s 100% not available but i only point this out to suggest someone like him would fill a need. I wonder how much they believe in Exum?

[myconsumerclub]

starters will eventually be : Luka Irving Williams OMax Lively
2nd team Hardy Green Seth Holmes Kleber
3rd team Exum Powell THJ McGee ________
2 way Lawson Miles Wright

2 way we need to add a big and cut one of the PG's I personally would have tried to get Luka to recruit Nunez away from Europe and get him over here now. He may think he is not ready to come over yet but we could have Luka develop him as a coach. The big could have been that guy in LA that scored 21 points if we took undrafted players more seriously and started to look at center as an area of need that we should concentrate on improving. At this point someone is going to cut some talent and we only have a single roster spot but if a rookie big is cut you need to see about swapping him in there with our 3rd 2way. Why invest so much in point guard? Bingham may be worth developing in Frisco and likely that is where he plays anyway but as a 2 way he can get pulled up.

Holmes McGee and Powell are all guys that most of us do not want playing a lot of minutes. Kleber is a stretch 4 so try not use him to solve your problem at the 5 we will probably need him at the 4 more since Williams may have to play at the 3 some and that leaves O Max as the main PF if we have to use Kleber at the 5 instead of 4.

You have to add a real center so that we can move Holmes and or McGee and if we can snag a better PF to replace Kleber then I might then consider Kleber as a 3rd string 5 oh wait we just added a 3rd string 5 in Powell for 3 years LOL.

Seriously this team is tying itself up in knots. Centers need to be 7'0 or weight over 260#'s so they can bang with other bigs and no shorter than 6'10 if they are bulkier and the landscape has changed we are about to face a lot of teams with extra tall centers we should add guys that give us advantages in terms of size. Wemby, Chet and other over 7' players need to be defended by guys that are taller than 6'8 or 6'10. Allen is 6'9 so he is out.

Miami has a great development program for undrafted players and they let Omer Yurtseven go so he may be worth a 10 day to look at. He got some double doubles when he was pulled up from the G league. I would say he is a better option than Orlando Robinson and or Udoka Azabuike because he is a bigger body that we can use against certain matchups. Azabuike is playing on the Boston SL team so we know he is getting looked at closer.

I think he offers a lot of talent for a vet min to back up Lively with a real center sized player, if nothing else then that allows Holmes to play at the 4 more and enable us to trade other assets like Kleber who may fetch more back in trade than Holmes would simply because he has shown he can shoot the 3 in the play offs.

We might then be able to bundle THJ and or McGee with Kleber a lot easier to make that kind of trade more digestable and more effectively sold to other teams than trying to sell another unknown guy in Holmes. With that approach you might work a deal to clear cap for another center coming back.

Too bad we can't renegotiate a deal with McGee so that he gets paid all his money this year and then he becomes an expiring contract to sell to other teams.

[MFFL]

It seems quite possible the Mavs weighed both trade demands and salary demands, and then that led them to opt for G Will over PJW. G Will cost a swap (not an unprotected 1st) and 4 yr 54M (rather than potentially 4 yr 77M). That's a huge difference on both fronts and they matter.

And lets not forget that the Hornets were making noise that they wanted G Will themselves instead of PJW

[MFFL]

I like Vanderbilt, too. Same problem as PJW, at this point. It’s no longer a hole that demands the solving at the cost of acquiring him. Also, not sure he’s available.

I'm apparently not as high on Vanderbilt as you guys. He played 41 minutes against Denver and got 4 rebounds. That's not good enough for a PF

[Smitty]

It's come to the point of realization that the Mavs are done making moves that matter this off-season. They are ~3.7M below the tax line with 14 roster spots and a rotation that makes sense on paper. Cuban was probably willing to pay tax on a piece that fit so well in Thybulle, although i suspect he would have eventually skirted under with a THJ and McGee trade.

FWIW I'm very happy with what they've done and even more excited about what they wanted to do, but didn't accomplish, because I see the vision - unlike last off-season.