Trade & FA 2023-24: OKC The Favorite For Nic Claxton Should He Leave BRK

[omahen]

No team has the cap space to offer that. So his options are to take the $8.5 million qualifying offer from Charlotte and play it out so he can become an unrestricted free agent next summer or keep trying to get the deal he wants from the Hornets. The hardest option to pursue is sign-and-trade but let's see. It's still early in the summer.

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More from Stein:

Don't see the Mavs pursuing Nurkic for those asking. They want a rim-rolling and/or defensive center.

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More from Stein:

There will have to be some sort of cost-cutting if the annual salary for Thybulle is higher than $9 million. The specific move is not yet clear. But I've been saying for days that McGee would not be back. One way or another he will not be on the roster.

[SkenfromLMF]

The guy who really suffers from this deal is Christian Wood. There were a FEW scenarios where the Mavs would be OVER the APRON and a Sign and Trade of C-Wood would be the mechanism to accomplish that goal. The Sign and Trade of Williams completely takes that off the table.
I am thinking (not gonna look it up... not gonna do it) that the only way for Wood to maintain his Bird Rights would be to be involved in a potential deal involving Portland for Thybulle. Maybe, he could get in on the rumored Charlotte deal for PJ. The point is that Wood is looking a long hallway of shut doors and there does not seem to be an opening for him (at his preferred salary) anywhere to be found.

BTW if there was one team who does not seem to be shy about adding players other teams found difficult, it would be your Washington Wizards. Hoping the best for Wood, and hoping Dallas can get some more of this Nico-magic to produce the chicken salad out of sad sack of assets to help him get somewhere.

[Jym]

Really like Brad Stevens as a coach. Very very much. As GM? He looks like maybe the worst in the league now that MJ (and before him, Isaiah Thomas) are on the outside.

Yeah I'm surprised the KP extension isn't getting more hate. Looks like such an overpay for what he'll do for the Celts.
I thought it would be more in-line with what Miles Turner got. Thought they'd let him opt in for the $36 mil since it would make a trade easier and then pay him around $20 mil a year for the next 2
Not $30 mil each

[The Jom]

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More from Stein:

There will have to be some sort of cost-cutting if the annual salary for Thybulle is higher than $9 million. The specific move is not yet clear. But I've been saying for days that McGee would not be back. One way or another he will not be on the roster.

There are 3 ways this can happen, right? 

1. Trade
2. Waive (presumably stretch waive)
3. Medical retirement

Other teams get out of bad contracts via #3 all the time, it seems. And then the “retired” player recovers and plays for another team a year later. Isn’t that what LaMarcus Aldridge and Joe Ingles did recently?

[ThisIStheYear]

Portland said they would match, so I expect they will without some compensation. Dumb question: is it within the rules to just have a gentleman’s agreement where Portland agrees not to match, so the transaction is logged as an RFA signing rather than a sign and trade, and in return the Mavs route a second rounder to Portland for $1 as a separate transaction? Or, maybe the Mavs could also pay for their vending for a year?

[Tyler]

Portland said they would match, so I expect they will without some compensation.

Not necessarily. Every team says that they will match any RFA offer. It costs them absolutely nothing, and just the threat can sometimes scare enough teams away to keep the cost of the player down. If Portland really had no issues with offering Thybule 3/33, then they would have already done it and not let him be courting outside offers. So yes, they may match. But I wouldn't take their public statements about it at face value.

[DanSchwartzgan]

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More from Stein:

There will have to be some sort of cost-cutting if the annual salary for Thybulle is higher than $9 million. The specific move is not yet clear. But I've been saying for days that McGee would not be back. One way or another he will not be on the roster.

Very short night, so apologies for mistakes.

I have us $500k over the first apron if Thybulle’s number is $10.4mm and Holmes doesn’t get his TK (so, $2.3mm over if he does get his TK).  S/W of McGee gets you there either way, but I suspect they would rather pay someone a newly minted second rounder to just take him.  If we find a taker for McGee, then we are either $5.2mm under or $3.4mm under the apron depending on the the Holmes TK.

I’ve been highlighting a version of PJ to Dallas for THJ that features Charlotte staying under the cap and trading Holmes at his hold of $17.4mm to avoid BYC.  If we are in a place where we can’t take on additional salary, you can’t do PJ at a number that works and overcomes BYC.  But, If we have more room, BYC can be overcome.  You can pay PJ $21mm and the outgoing for Charlotte is $10.5mm.  Add in the $7.5mm spread and you are at $18mm and that matches Hardaway.  But, $21mm is $3.1mm more incoming than outgoing.  Not an issue if we have $3.4mm in space from McGee being traded (and Holmes gets his TK) or we have $3.4mm from a McGee S/W (and Holmes doesn’t get his TK).

[Dundalis]

Stein thinks PJ Washington wants at least 18 mil annualy

If you add Williams, PJ and Thybulle, you've completely revamped your perimeter defense, to where I think you can get away with a cheap stop gap center or even none. Think about the Mavs defense in 2021-22 but with even better perimeter defense both in the starting unit and the bench. They were top 10 defensively with nothing to speak of at the 5 as well as terrible rebounding. I'd 100% still go after PJ over some expensive 5. The PJ-Williams pair works fantastically, and you keep Green/Thybulle/Omax on the bench unit, which will also smother opposing bench units defensively.

I think you could roll with what we have at the 5 and the perimeter defense revamp alone would put us back where we were in 21-22 defensively minimum. I'd throw THJ plus picks and whatever else is needed for the numbers to work to try and bring him in on a S&T.

[SleepingHero]

Guess what day it is?

That's right another Ayton trade. But first, Thybulle:

Portland paid Jalen McDaniels and 2 2nd rounders for Thybulle (and some other stuff like Reddish but I digress). One would assume that they'd be motivated to be made "whole" again after investing 2 2nds for Thybulle. With that in mind, I almost assuredly believe in any Thybulle to the Mavs scenario, those 2 2nds are going to be sent to POR. Whether or not they can attach McGee in some sort of deal to POR along with those 2nds remains to be seen, but in either case that moves me to the next phase of my plan.

Dominayton:

I will not let this dream die. No matter how many deriding replies I get. I remain steadfast in my desire to have Ayton as the center of the future* because I believe his fit/talent is just too good to pass up.
*Until Lively is ready to surpass Ayton in hopefully 2-3 years

Perhaps PHX still wants THJ+Holmes. They were interested earlier. If the Mavs find a way to move McGee off then the deal should theoretically be back on. Stein has said some similar comments by the way, he wrote a new article about the idea in his substack. An excerpt:

The talks with Dallas were not going to furnish Phoenix with any future first-round draft compensation but initially held appeal to the Suns, sources say, because it would have given them two players they like in Hardaway and Holmes who could plug into a rotation with numerous vacancies in support of the newly formed star trio of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Hardaway and Holmes are also both under contract for just two more seasons each at much more manageable (and movable) salaries compared to the three years and $102 million left on Ayton's contract.

PHX's main attraction is the flexibility Holmes+THJ provide. They also appear to be the only substantial role players a team is willing to move off of for Ayton. In the new CBA and being a 2nd apron team, trading that Ayton contract is going to be harder and harder for PHX. I can see why they'd be motivated to rip the bandaid off now and get 2 theoretically fitting role players on the roster that can compete day 1. 


If that supposed deal goes through and the above scenario happens above, the Mavs team salary would be:  $171,913,429. Right below that 1st apron. This is assuming Pinson also resigns for the vet min as well and Thybulle's deal starts at 10 million. 

Roster:
Luka/Curry
Kyrie/Hardy/Pinson
Thybulle/Green/Exum
Williams/Maxi/Omax
Ayton/Lively/Powell

If they can't attach McGee to the Thybulle deal, they'll have to S/W him. Doing so puts the team salary at:  174,261,753. 

This is exactly 1,961,753 over the 1st apron. Struggling a bit on where to find the extra money here, unless Thybulle's deal is around the 8 mil range. Cato floated a number around there, but it doesn't line up with Shams reported 3/33 offer sheet that Thybulle will sign. 

Still, the Ayton dream LIVES

[DanSchwartzgan]

The guy who really suffers from this deal is Christian Wood. There were a FEW scenarios where the Mavs would be OVER the APRON and a Sign and Trade of C-Wood would be the mechanism to accomplish that goal. The Sign and Trade of Williams completely takes that off the table.

True that.  If Curry was really BAE, that hard capped us also, but his number could have been moved to the TP MLE instead which would cap us at the second apron and keep a Wood trade alive.  Now we know $172mm is the number with the S&T of Williams.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

After this week is over, I dont think I want to see BAE or MLE or any of these other acronyms for a few months. My head hurts.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
Roster:
Luka/Curry
Kyrie/Hardy/Pinson
Thybulle/Green/Exum
Williams/Maxi/Omax
Ayton/Lively/Powell 

Still, the Ayton dream LIVES

You definitely have to account for McGee being absorbed somewhere, but no matter what you think of Ayton, a summer of Ayton, Williams, Thybulle, Lively and OMax (and getting rid of what they got rid of) and retaining Irving on a 3 year at that number is pretty darned impressive.

[KillerLeft]

You definitely have to account for McGee being absorbed somewhere, but no matter what you think of Ayton, a summer of Ayton, Williams, Thybulle, Lively and OMax (and getting rid of what they got rid of) and retaining Irving on a 3 year at that number is pretty darned impressive.

Absolutely! The only way to beat that is the exact, same summer, but without the Ayton part!

[omahen]

I don't think PJ makes much sense now. Mavs got their PF and I doubt they trade for another one. Neither would be really happy about it as they both expect a starting job. Lets see if they can pull a move for a center. We could have a very, very decent team if they could add a respectable center.

[Dundalis]

I don't think PJ makes much sense now. Mavs got their PF and I doubt they trade for another one. Neither would be really happy about it as they both expect a starting job. Lets see if they can pull a move for a center. We could have a very, very decent team if they could add a respectable center.

Maybe, although I feel like you have a very small wing unit, and you would probably have to start Green for the shooting and particularly extra ball handling, which neither Williams or Thybulle provide. Which is ok, but I'd like a starting 3 who can defend up and actually has some size and length. But this is going in a fantastic direction so far. I really want THJ gone mainly so he isn't being a progress stopper for Hardy.

[Knutsen]

I don't think PJ makes much sense now. Mavs got their PF and I doubt they trade for another one. Neither would be really happy about it as they both expect a starting job. Lets see if they can pull a move for a center. We could have a very, very decent team if they could add a respectable center.

I don’t think they are redundant - Williams is the 3/4 type like DFS, Washington is the 4/5 type like Kleber. If there’s any chance to get PJ we should, he‘s 24 and on a perfect timeline with Luka with lots of room to grow when playing for a winning team.

[Dundalis]

I don’t think they are redundant - Williams is the 3/4 type like DFS, Washington is the 4/5 type like Kleber. If there’s any chance to get PJ we should, he‘s 24 and on a perfect timeline with Luka with lots of room to grow when playing for a winning team.

Pretty sure Williams is simply too slow to defend 3's, pretty much every Celtic fan corroberates this. PJ could probably defend 3's better, though looking into it more, neither seem ideal playing the 3. I still wanted PJ as I posted earlier, but it actually probably doesn't make as much sense. I still would prefer a versatile defensive 3 to a rim protecting big though.

[DanSchwartzgan]

One thing about losing Reggie is we no longer have expiring money in 24.  To me, he was the relief valve for staying under the second apron once Green gets extended or paid in free agency.

I don’t recall who said it, but I now wonder if Thybulle doesn’t bump the chances of Josh being included in a trade for a center.  Ayton has been brought up.  Holmes + Josh for Allen?  Atlanta wanted Josh…Holmes and Josh for Capela?  What about Holmes, THJ, Josh, 2027 for Siakam? McGee and Josh for Zubac?

Personally, I want more of a 4/5 like Siakam if I’m going to give up Josh. That way Siakam is still relevant once Lively emerges as he can play with Lively or instead of Lively throughout the game

[SleepingHero]

I don’t think they are redundant - Williams is the 3/4 type like DFS, Washington is the 4/5 type like Kleber. If there’s any chance to get PJ we should, he‘s 24 and on a perfect timeline with Luka with lots of room to grow when playing for a winning team.

To me Williams is definitely more of the 4/5 type that has the ability to guard 3's. He's more like Draymond than he is DFS. 

Washington is an anomaly to me. There aren't that many good comps for him. He's a bit like Maxi, but he's 3 inches shorter and is much more athletic. He's a lot like John Collins to me but still making that comparison doesn't feel right.

In either case, this team still needs a rebounding center. One that can run a PnR well. And who can also set some pretty big screens. 

Of the ones available, the only ones that fit the bill (and whose names have been rehashed to death): Ayton, Allen, Capela, Gafford, 
Kinda fits: Valanciunas, Zubac
Doesn't really fit but can be better than what we got:Nurkic.

[KillerLeft]

Washington and Williams do the same thing: play the 4 and small ball 5. They do it in different ways, (Washington with athletic twitch and lightning fast feet, Williams with bulk and a low center of gravity) but they are essentially the same animal.

There’s nothing wrong with getting both, if you have the means. You simply start PJ and bring Williams off the bench. They can certainly play together, it would just be at the 4 and 5, not the 3 and 4. I doubt that would be ideal as a default lineup, but it could sure do some damage on both ends of the floor, and certainly in transition. Additionally, mixing those two in with Kleber and Powell would give you a really versatile, switchable set of bigs. It’s pretty much the dream.

However, given the Mavs’ asset situation, I no longer think Washington is something they can afford. With Williams already here, Washington is a luxury, I think. If you can get him straight up for Hardaway, GREAT, but I wouldn’t even consider including the unprotected ‘27, for example. Or Josh Green.

Would be nice though!