Trade & FA 2023-24: Booker Likes NYK? Vogel Out? Suns Imploding?

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Let's go best care scenario, Gawd owed us a favor.

Lively is Mark Williams. 19mins in 43 games.  0.8k mins.
OMax is Jae Crowder.  17mins in 78 games.  1.3k mins.
Holmes turns back the clock 2 years.  24mins in 45 games.  1.0k mins.

SF: Covered.
PF: OMax 1.3k mins.  50% of Holmes 0.5k mins.  Still need 1.3k minutes.
C: Lively 0.8k mins, 50% of Holmes 0.5k mins.  Still need 2.7k minutes.

So how do we fit the huge gap of 4k minutes of PF/C here?  Well, if we're filling in minutes with rookies in OMax and Lively, not to mention Holmes is Lazarus, we need some real deals.  

- Zubac, 29 mins in 76 games.  2.2k mins.
- Z.Collins, 23 mins in 63 games, 1.5k mins.
- Eason, 22 mins in 82 games, 1.8k mins.
- PJ.Washington, 33 mins in 73 games, 2.4k mins.
- C.Wood, 26 mins in 67 games, 1.7k mins.

In a perfect world, I'm going after Zubac and Eason.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I don't think you can operate that way or you end up with Josh Richardson and Delon Wright.  Yes, your team should try to address weaknesses in the draft, via trade, and in free agency, but we aren't at the point were one player is going to put us over the top.  If you can smartly add talent, I'd worry less about redundancy or positions of need and more about building up available assets.

You are mistaken.  That's the rule for drafting, which is arguable, but NEVER free agency or trading.  BOS just masterfully traded away a DPOY because that position is well covered by two players on the roster for a player who brings something they were lacking.  We literally have Maxi as the only contributing PF/C at a level good enough for a championship team, and he gave us a whopping 25mins in 37 games.  To not see our H-U-G-E hole at PF/C is to be one of the three mice running up the clock.

[surfpuckmd]

So how do we fit the huge gap of 4k minutes of PF/C here?  Well, if we're filling in minutes with rookies in OMax and Lively, not to mention Holmes is Lazarus, we need some real deals.  

- Zubac, 29 mins in 76 games.  2.2k mins.
- Z.Collins, 23 mins in 63 games, 1.5k mins.
- Eason, 22 mins in 82 games, 1.8k mins.
- PJ.Washington, 33 mins in 73 games, 2.4k mins.
- C.Wood, 26 mins in 67 games, 1.7k mins.

In a perfect world, I'm going after Zubac and Eason.

I think Tari Eason would be a perfect fit here.  Unfortunately, he is not available.  

Unless the Clippers decide to blow it up, Zubac isn't available either.  

Zach Collins would be fine as well.  He probably is available.  I think he is just good enough to require an asset to acquire though.  I don't think he's good enough to justify sending our 2027 pick out.  We don't have any 2nd-round picks to trade.  I don't see how we can acquire him.  I think the same about Daniel Gafford-  would be a good fit but we don't have the means to obtain him.

[F Gump]

...we need some real deals.  
- Zubac, 29 mins in 76 games.  2.2k mins.
- Z.Collins, 23 mins in 63 games, 1.5k mins.
- Eason, 22 mins in 82 games, 1.8k mins.
- PJ.Washington, 33 mins in 73 games, 2.4k mins.
- C.Wood, 26 mins in 67 games, 1.7k mins.

How are any of those "real deals"? There's not a single solution in the bunch, if you are re-directing your MLE away from Brown.

Zubac  - not a  FA
Z.Collins  - not a  FA
Eason - not a  FA
PJ.Washington- not available for MLE, and is under CHA control (restricted)
C.Wood - LOL @ this being a defensive solution at C (or a real deal)

[surfpuckmd]

I have a suggestion for a player I think would fit well here and fits our price range-  Derrick Jones Jr. 

He is a very good defensive player and would be an immediate, substantial defensive upgrade over Reggie Bullock.  He is an elite athlete who is a better rebounder than Bullock. He also provides some rim protection (1.5 blocks per 36 minutes).  He runs the court well and is strong in transition-  I believe he'd fit especially well with the Kyrie-only minutes when we will push the pace better.  He is not a great 3-point shooter-  33.8 percent last season.  However, he has improved from 3 four consecutive seasons.  I also believe he would see better looks with Luka and Kyrie running the offense compared to playing with DeRozan and Zach Lavine.  

He is only 26 years old and still potentially has some room for improvement-  especially as a shooter.  

He turned down his player option for $3.36 million.  I suspect we could acquire him for somewhere around 3 years, $18-20 million total.  I believe that would be fair value for a good role player.  I think he'd be a solid rotation player as a small-ball 4.  

I really like the idea of Bruce Brown here but I think he will receive bigger offers than we can provide.

I think Derrick Jones Jr. would be an upgrade over Bullock, add some needed athleticism and defense and not require our full MLE.

[ThisIStheYear]

Jones Jr. makes a ton of sense for this club and wouldn’t command anywhere near the full MLE. The Mavs would still have some salary flexibility to trade for a medium size fish.

[cow]

You are mistaken.  That's the rule for drafting, which is arguable, but NEVER free agency or trading.  BOS just masterfully traded away a DPOY because that position is well covered by two players on the roster for a player who brings something they were lacking.  We literally have Maxi as the only contributing PF/C at a level good enough for a championship team, and he gave us a whopping 25mins in 37 games.  To not see our H-U-G-E hole at PF/C is to be one of the three mice running up the clock.

You lack the basic understanding of the stages of roster construction, rebuilding, and tweaking.  Being laser focused is foolish as there might not be a good opportunity to upgrade the place of need given a the current assets on a team.   The Mavs roster is in a different phase from Boston's just like it is in a different phase from Utah's so comparing them is foolish.

[Mavsfan12]

I don't think you can operate that way or you end up with Josh Richardson and Delon Wright.  Yes, your team should try to address weaknesses in the draft, via trade, and in free agency, but we aren't at the point were one player is going to put us over the top.  If you can smartly add talent, I'd worry less about redundancy or positions of need and more about building up available assets.

That's fair, if you are picking from the bottom of the barrel.  We are talking about trading assets, not acquiring a player with the TP-MLE after everyone has been picked over.  The Mavs need to use their assets to address the frontcourt.  Adding to the backcourt is just redundancy at this point with a failed ending.  So what's the point of that?  If they can't acquire anyone, then we know that the season will simply be a failure and we try again next year.  But they better treat it like that and play the heck out of the rookies to develop them!  I would also want to take swings on some players with potential growth.  I guess I am just not on board with a course of action that doesn't address the GLARING needs of this team.  Adding another guard just makes it more crowded, and reduces value.  They have to get bigs that can play NOW.

[SleepingHero]

There is some confusion about new CBA "aggregation" rules regarding Ayton on another board.  It was suggested that after 7/1/23, Ayton can't be traded with multiple players coming back.  This is not a concern for 2023.  It is a second apron thing, but it doesn't start until the 24/25 season.

In that season, if you are over the second apron, you can't aggregate up or down (can't turn two players into one in a trade and can't turn one into two).  That is a big deal because not only are you competitively punished for spending that much, but you have few avenues to fix your mistake.  But again, a 24 thing, not a 23 thing.  If they really were relatively close to an Ayton trade that included Holmes we know:

1. All the positioning about new coach looking forward to working with him is BS.
2. This was after the drafting of Lively (or we wouldn't have had Holmes to trade).

I did the match and with Irving at $40mm to start, we cross the first apron if we don't include McGee as outgoing (not by much though, so it could be fixed by fine tuning Kyrie down a bit more (though we don't even know if $40mm is a real thing or not).  If McGee is outgoing, then we can have the N-TP MLE.  In fact, there are a few extra dollars to give to Kyrie or use in a trade spread with Bullock outgoing or use to keep a 15th player on the roster.

Clock is ticking on Reggie.  If you don't pick up his guarantee, it has a similar impact to trading McGee if you don't S/W him.  You have to account for dead money and a minimum slot to replace him.  But with Irving at $40mm, 14 spots and Reggie just straight waived, I have us at $169mm.  We will have moved off of two wings in THJ and Reggie, but we only need one and the MLE can provide that.

Thanks for the clarification and I also wondered about that rule kicking in this year or not. 

Regarding our money, CBAMavs broke it down pretty thoroughly in his new article, with several avenues to open up the MLE+BAE even after trading for Ayton linked here: https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2023/6/27/...-exception

Taking a few screenshots, 


Kyrie at $40 mil and only going with 14 players vs. 15 should give them the Full MLE to work with.


Bullock being S/W and Kyrie at 44.7 which would give them the exact amount to have the full MLE and BAE. 





A nice summary at for all scenarios involving a Bullock S/W 



A 4 year deal for Kyrie starting at 44.7 is exactly 200 mil. I think he can get behind a slight 10 mil discount especially in this market.

[Mavsfan12]

Thanks for your opinion.

I am a huge proponent of adding improved defense. But I don't agree with the idea that the problem (and solution) is limited to 4s and 5s.

To me, Brown fills a need. He's a 2 or 3, but can guard bigger. MOST IMPORTANTLY, he is a legit defender. To add one of those, who can do some plus things on offense too, that's what you need.

I hope you are right about Bullock. But if you are, I still think Brown would be a huge get. He offers a lot.

I agree that they might need better at C. But the problem is they don't need MORE, and they don't need one just to get one. It would be dumb to add another without getting rid of McGee or Holmes (or both). So that would be a trade, not MLE. If they can get that guy in trade, with one or more centers outgoing, sign me up. I would love to see them swap for Gafford. (But that answer is not Ayton imo. The Mavs need DEFENSE. They also need to get away from bloated salaries.) I

I would love for the Mavs to add a bigger defensive wing than Brown for the MLE, but don't see who that would be for the MLE.

I wonder if are set with enough defense at the 4, with Maxi and O-Max. But I also wonder, if an addition is needed, who is the defensive stud as a 4 who is available for the MLE? I don't want a guy, just to have a guy.

My 2c.

The problem is that this team doesn't have a single player outside of Maxi (that isn't a rookie) that should play a minute at the 4.  That is the position this team is in.  So, you are trusting that Maxi stays healthy, (which is like the Cowboys trusting that Tyron Smith does the same), or you are playing a rookie, or you are playing guards at PF.  This is a fail.  You HAVE to fill the hole. There isn't really an option that is better, unless you are just getting bpa to make a trade later.  But again, that is a bottom feeder mentality.

[KillerLeft]

Mavsfan12, I’ll pushback a little:

1) the biggest thing I see misunderstood around here is that Luka is not really a guard. Sure, he initiates the offense from above the break the way a guard would, so it’s not inaccurate to call him a PG, technically, but there are very few teams against whom he can play that position on defense. In reality, he’s a forward (one of the reasons his rebounding numbers are so high) and the easiest way to lose games by double digits is to put him in position to be an on-ball defender.

2) so, at the moment, that means out of the 8-9 man real rotation, they have Luka, Lively, Kleber, Omax who can ONLY play front court positions (if you’re counting on Holmes for anything, add another) and THJ, Green and Bullock, who all have some front court overlap. I would actually say that Green’s best position is the 3, honestly, though he can play guard a little. Kyrie and Hardy are really the only full time guards in the potential rotation at the moment (though I’d argue THJ is better there).

Out of all those dudes, Green is the only one with the slightest chance of being an elite on-ball defender. I’d argue that there are quite a few deficiencies on the team right now, guard included.

[cow]

That's fair, if you are picking from the bottom of the barrel.  We are talking about trading assets, not acquiring a player with the TP-MLE after everyone has been picked over.  The Mavs need to use their assets to address the frontcourt.  Adding to the backcourt is just redundancy at this point with a failed ending.  So what's the point of that?  If they can't acquire anyone, then we know that the season will simply be a failure and we try again next year.  But they better treat it like that and play the heck out of the rookies to develop them!  I would also want to take swings on some players with potential growth.  I guess I am just not on board with a course of action that doesn't address the GLARING needs of this team.  Adding another guard just makes it more crowded, and reduces value.  They have to get bigs that can play NOW.

If there is an opportunity to upgrade or add more depth to the rotation, you need to look at that no matter the position.  If nothing else, you are rebuilding your asset pool for future opportunities.  Ideally, you'd love to get help in areas of weakness but the right player just might not be available to you.  I don't want to reach for someone who is the wrong fit or overpay for someone who does fit but doesn't justify the assets or contract you'd need to acquire them.  

Nico said he isn't done, so I think he has a plan.  How he maneuvered on draft night is encouraging so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as we enter free agency.  And I'm usually the furthest person from being optimistic when it comes to the MBT.  You see the glaring needs of the team, I see the glaring needs of the team so I'm pretty sure they do too.  

Though I am starting to warm up to the idea that we just roll out Lively to start the season.  We've come out of the gate slow the last few seasons so why not use the doldrums to see what 12th in a deep draft class has to offer?

[mvossman]

The problem is that this team doesn't have a single player outside of Maxi (that isn't a rookie) that should play a minute at the 4.  That is the position this team is in.  So, you are trusting that Maxi stays healthy, (which is like the Cowboys trusting that Tyron Smith does the same), or you are playing a rookie, or you are playing guards at PF.  This is a fail.  You HAVE to fill the hole. There isn't really an option that is better, unless you are just getting bpa to make a trade later.  But again, that is a bottom feeder mentality.

I think this is where a lot of folks disagree.  Luka's best position defensively is probably the 4.  Omax can also play the 4.  It would probably be ideal to get another rotational player that can play the 4, but I don't think its as critical as you are making it out to be.  We are probably going to be a little undersized, but we showed two years ago you can still be successful.  I think the team made it clear on draft day that the focus is more long term than it has been in the past.  If that means we go a little small this coming season, then so be it.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

https://twitter.com/skinwade/status/1673...52928?s=46&t=vJVRjsNMIspCGYJu_TpvwA

[SleepingHero]

https://twitter.com/skinwade/status/1673...52928?s=46&t=vJVRjsNMIspCGYJu_TpvwA

Stealing this from twitter:

[Jym]

Back to Ayton, what about a 4-way where we add some value like the 2027 1st rounder to Toronto in a Siakam trade?
Siakam fits way better long term

[SleepingHero]

Back to Ayton, what about a 4-way where we add some value like the 2027 1st rounder to Toronto in a Siakam trade?
Siakam fits way better long term

TOR just traded for Poeltl and threw in a 1st and two 2nds. Masai isn't one to just throw assets like that away.

I think they'll just resign Poeltl for 20 mil and call it a day.

[Jym]

TOR just traded for Poeltl and threw in a 1st and two 2nds. Masai isn't one to just throw assets like that away.

I think they'll just resign Poeltl for 20 mil and call it a day.

Unrestricted so that seems like a bit of an overpay. They do kind of have to match/beat whatever other offers he gets then

[Okstate819]

If Skin ends up being right this will be the first time. Cuban fan boy will then blame Mavs fans for whatever happens.

[MFFL]

Assuming that Skin is right, who would prefer the deal to a decreasing number?

23-24 $44,285,714
24-25 $41,428,571
25-26 $38,571,429
26-27 $35,714,286
$160m