Trade & FA 2023-24: Paul George to Test Free Agency After No Contract Extension

[KillerLeft]

I really hope you are wrong or this year is gonna be ugly.  Not sure I can make it through and to the other side.  Not sure our two superstars can either.

What I'm suggesting is that if another WCF run is what it would take to make you (or those two stars, for that matter) happy, you simply weren't going to be happy. The team isn't fixable on any sort of short timeline, at least not with the assets available to the team. 

For me, the best thing they could possibly do is stop trying to accomplish the impossible and start to actually build a team. I don't feel as passionately as you seem to about Lively, specifically (you might be right) but I am soooooooo ready to stop caring about "winning now" and start acting like the team is being built around a 24 year old.

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Flip Kyrie for some young assets if that's the plan.  Having him here on a rebuilding team is asking for trouble.

I'd be more than fine with this.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

What I'm suggesting is that if another WCF run is what it would take to make you (or those two stars, for that matter) happy, you simply weren't going to be happy. 

I see this team (+ say Grant Williams) as a 9-10 seed.

I was hoping for a playoff team that is fighting for home court in the 1st rd. 4-6 seed

Lets see what happens with the Mavs TV rights. I'm not planning to renew Fubo TV if this team is rebuilding.

[dirkfansince1998]

Personally I think the new CBA forced their hand. Don´t think we would be looking at a roster with two first round picks if it wasn´t for it. Rookie contracts are more valuable than ever and it feels like all teams (even contenders) are trying to pick up cost controlled assets.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Personally I think the new CBA forced their hand. Don´t think we would be looking at a roster with two first round picks if it wasn´t for it. Rookie contracts are more valuable than ever and it feels like all teams (even contenders) are trying to pick up cost controlled assets.

Who is doing this other than Denver? (a team that already has their championship rotation)

Boston, Phoenix, Golden State, and Memphis all just traded for old and expensive players.

[Winter]

Big difference between rotational piece and starter.  He should get as many minutes as he can without clearly hurting the team, but I don't know that it would be good for his development to throw him out there as a starter when he is not ready.  It took him half a season last year to get adjusted to college ball.  It will likely take at least that long at NBA level.

I think a decision will be made after they see Lively in Summer league and gets a sense on how quickly he picks up the NBA game. Early reports are that both Lively and OMAX picked up the Maverick defensive schemes pretty quickly in pre-draft workouts.

My guess is that Lively gets introduced to a few minutes a game right away. Other mid-first round picks have successfully negotiated the NBA game for rotation minutes (i.e., Walter Kessler) and caught on. I suspect the Mavs will give Lively that opportunity.

[dirkfansince1998]

Who is doing this other than Denver?  (a team that already has their championship rotation)

Boston, Phoenix, Golden State, and Memphis all just traded for old and expensive players.

Celtics received two 1sts in the KP trade. They traded down and turned this years pick into future assets. According to reports they targeted O-Max but the Mavs picked him one spot ahead of them.
GS salary dumped Poole. Still kept this years pick. Same for the Heat and Lakers.
Phoenix is all in. They have not future. Win now or bust. Probably the most radical all in move I have ever seen.

[Branduil]

So the current depth chart, assuming Kyrie is resigned:

Luka / Hardy / ???
Kyrie / THJ / ???
Green / OMAX / Bullock
??? / Maxi
Holmes / Lively / McGee

We all know PF is the biggest area of need right now. Obviously Maxi can get some minutes there, but he'll also play some C, and he can't play effectively as a starter, and you've got OMAX and Luka playing some there too, but you want some kind of defense-oriented starter, at least for now. A backup PG would probably be a good idea as well. McGee and Bullock seem like the most likely trade candidates, although THJ is possible in the right circumstances.

[BigDirk41]

Nico said he expects both draft picks to play immediately because of their defense and because they don't need the ball. He seems excited about both picks.

[Okstate819]

So the current depth chart, assuming Kyrie is resigned:

Luka / Hardy / ???
Kyrie / THJ / ???
Green / OMAX / Bullock
??? / Maxi
Holmes / Lively / McGee

We all know PF is the biggest area of need right now. Obviously Maxi can get some minutes there, but he'll also play some C, and he can't play effectively as a starter, and you've got OMAX and Luka playing some there too, but you want some kind of defense-oriented starter, at least for now. A backup PG would probably be a good idea as well. McGee and Bullock seem like the most likely trade candidates, although THJ is possible in the right circumstances.

If a legit starter is the goal, these are the names to look at. Level of interest varies with each but I would assume s&t would be needed for any of them.

Harrison Barnes
PJ Washington (RFA)
Jerami Grant
Kyle Kuzma
Grant Williams (RFA)

Or you could still do THJ and Bullock for Collins I suppose

[Branduil]

I still like Jerami Grant. Not sure how available he is, I suppose a lot depends on what Portland decides to do with Dame.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

Jerami Grant would be a great fit. Have heard he’s looking for the neighborhood of 30 million. If Portland blows it up could we do THJ, McGee, Bullock and unprotected 2027? Lively, Grant, Green (extended), Luka, Kyrie. Holmes, Powell, Maxi, Hardy, Omax, BAE. Bench is thin even with Hardy making another leap and OMAX panning out. Lively would have to reach “defensive stud, 25-30 minutes per game,” by year two or three assuming the Kyrie/Luka window is 3-4 years max. That’s with relying on an aging Maxi as crucial depth. Hard to see it.

[Branduil]

Jerami Grant would be a great fit. Have heard he’s looking for the neighborhood of 30 million. If Portland blows it up could we do THJ, McGee, Bullock and unprotected 2027? Lively, Grant, Green (extended), Luka, Kyrie. Holmes, Powell, Maxi, Hardy, Omax, BAE. Bench is thin even with Hardy making another leap and OMAX panning out. Lively would have to reach “defensive stud, 25-30 minutes per game,” by year two or three assuming the Kyrie/Luka window is 3-4 years max. That’s with relying on an aging Maxi as crucial depth. Hard to see it.

Luka / Hardy
Kyrie / ???
Green / OMAX
Grant / Maxi
Holmes / Lively / Powell

That's 10 guys, I wouldn't really call that thin. You'd want another guard though.

[SleepingHero]

The issue you're running into with Wood talk is that other than you, everyone here, even his most ardent supporters (among whom I numbered at one point) feel like there has been an avalanche of signals from both the player and the team that they didn't enjoy collaborating professionally last season. I don't know that bringing him back will be considered, even in the event that there literally isn't a good alternative. 

From my perspective, he's a center. They just drafted a center in the first round, highly enough to expect that he'll play some this season, traded for another, still have McGee on the roster for the time being, still have Kleber, who will play at least a portion of his minutes at that position, and it's unclear at this time whether or not Powell will be back. I humbly submit that this is the MBT screaming "alternatives" at you. You're just not listening. 

The hole seems to be at the 4, from my seat. Kleber will play there some, as will OMAX, I hope. But, Wood cannot. His feet are just too damn slow (maybe that was the problem all along - they were hoping he could play 4, when he quite clearly cannot). I think it might be time to move on to your Kuzma pipe dream at this point. When you started bringing him up a few months back, I thought you were nuts because it seemed to me like WAS had moved Hachimura to clear the way to re-sign him to play with Porzingis and Beal. I still believe that was their thinking at the time, but now they've moved both of those other guys and I'm just not sure it makes any sense for them to retain Kuzma at any price. I'd put him near the top of the list of FA's who are about to change hands.

You wrote this better than I could have. Excellent synopsis on why I think Wood's time as a Maverick has ended for good. 

Now regarding that Kuzma alternative, I agree he's about to leave Washington. Problem is I think he's looking for a big payday. I mean BIG. 

I assume that's going to be a 4 year deal starting a minimum of 30 a year. No way the Mavs can get there, but even if they could would you even want to pursue Kuzma at that point?

The guy they should be targeting at the 4 should be Hachimura. His RFA status makes it a tricky pursuit. I think a starting deal for MLE money is one Lakers easily match.

[cow]

I don't understand anyone's desire for Kuzma. If he gets anywhere near his asking price, that contract will quickly turn into regret.

[Jym]

I don't understand anyone's desire for Kuzma.  If he gets anywhere near his asking price, that contract will quickly turn into regret.

The numbers on Basketball Reference are oh so bad. And they pass the eye test. He's not a winning player

[Branduil]

Yeah I mean if you're going to pay that much for a PF I think Grant would be the better option. Much better percentages and he's actually played on a winning team before.

[SleepingHero]

Who is doing this other than Denver?  (a team that already has their championship rotation)

Boston, Phoenix, Golden State, and Memphis all just traded for old and expensive players.

Phoenix went all in true. GSW sent Poole packing and got CP3 who will be cheaper this year and saves them from 3 years of max Poole money.

Memphis got their Dillon Brooks replacement so it's a net neutral cost to them.

SAC just traded someone for free at the cost of a FRP. ATL was trying their hardest to move off of Collins and no one bit.

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Yeah I mean if you're going to pay that much for a PF I think Grant would be the better option. Much better percentages and he's actually played on a winning team before.

I would LOVE Jerami Grant. Like Kuzma though, I think he's going to command well close to 30 mil a year. At that price I'd much rather just get a smaller tier guy and wait for 2025+2027 to be unlocked and go all in for a true star wing at that point.

[Branduil]

I think a lot depends on what they think Green can be this year. Right before the Kyrie trade it looked like he was close to being able to become that third guy, but then he took a big step back during the Kyrie + Luka mess. It's difficult to know how much of that was just part of the disastrous collapse that consumed the whole team.

IF Green (and Hardy) are ready to step up, it puts less pressure on the team to get a high-priced PF. But that's a big if.

[KillerLeft]

I don't understand anyone's desire for Kuzma.  If he gets anywhere near his asking price, that contract will quickly turn into regret.

Totally agree. Just know that Pavel has been pining after him for a long while and it’s seemingly more possible than I originally thought. I was guilty of dismissing his idea outright a few months back.

[Dundalis]

You also get Gafford, who is just 24 years old. You basically set at C for the next five year paying 17M to Gafford/Lively. Kuzma is a good scorer and passer, which we lack in the front court with Wood gone. i´m not that attached to Kuzma. I want Gafford. He seems the perfect Hayward to Lively´s Tyson.

Also watching more highlights of Lively. He ain´t no WCS. The way I see it, I´d probably have taken Lively at #10 too, when Hendricks was gone. I think his ceiling is not as high as the Mavs might believe with the shooting hype. I think his ceiling is Jarrett Allen. Here is the catch. I think his floor is also Jarrett Allen. You just picked up Jarrett Allen for $4M/year.

Luka throwing lob passes to Mr. Fantastic with 7´7 wingspan instead of T-Rex arms Dwight. Show me the money. He´ll also get a lot of putbacks on offensive rebounds. He also runs the floor well. He moves his feet well. Excellent fluidity. Motor seems fine.

Don't agree. You don't get to be a good scorer by jacking up shots and putting up lots of points by virtue of volume. You need to be efficient. He's a good scorer like Westbrook was a good scorer. Not the scoring I want on this team. He's a good passer, but even there he feels like he's from the Westbrook style of passing. Feels empty. When you talk about empty stats guys, Kuzma is one of the guys that fits that exact profile.

So basically, the small 5s, the 4s and bigger 3s that could be available are:

Barnes, McDaniels, GWilliams, Reid, and Jerami Grant (who I missed on my previous post).

Among this group, I'd like Grant the most.
But is he a realistic option? I dunno'

Barnes and GWilliams are underwhelming choices.
McDaniels could come cheap, but unlike Jerami Grant who happens to be a poor rebounder too, McDaniels isn't a player you'd depend on to score or lock someone up.

In Kuzma:
* you get someone who rebounds at a decent rate
* can play both forwards spots (Mavs can chose who to start at the other -- Reggie or Maxi).
* none of the Mavs front court players from recent years had the ability to handle the ball and play make, Kuzma makes sure the Mavs have at least 2 guys on the floor who can dribble and dish.
* THJ was/still is a chucker and doesn't do anything but shoot 3s. And he's the 3rd option on this team on offense. I wouldn't advocate for Kuzma unless a trade happens that gets THJ out
* In theory the floor opens up for Kuzma's drives and his shooting would improve because of Luka and Kyrie's gravity.

Basically, Kuzma replaces THJ as the 3rd option,  an option who can dribble drive and not just shoot 3s. A player who can play either forward spots, and also act as a point forward ensuring at least 2 playmakers on the floor at the same time. He isn't good in defense, but not as bad as some of you guys are picturing him out to be. He isn't even THJ bad, who's the player I would like him to replace.

If I'm giving up a bunch of assets and an unprotected first, I'd rather keep THJ over Kuzma. Efficiency wise they are about the same, THJ has had multiple seasons above 55% TS unlike Kuzma. Plus Kuzma will be expecting to start, THJ you can play off the bench. Kuzma's playmaking is not near enough to make up for his volume low efficiency chucking, and bad defense. And yes he is a bad defender. Last season with the Wizards, the positive about him was that he showed effort defensively, unlike most of the rest of their roster. The problem was he was still bad despite that. As most Wizards fans will tell you. I don't want a player like Kuzma as the third offensive option, and I don't want a third starter on this team who can't play defense. Luka and Kyrie need to be surrounded with defensive specialists. if he reverts to the role player he was his last year in LA, which is how he should be utilized off the bench, it's more useful for this team, but his value for that role is not what we would be giving up. You should be able to get a better return than this giving up our FRP. A third ball handler in the starting lineup is less of an issue if this team is much improved defensively, because its not incumbent upon the offense alone to drive the team to wins.

On to Kyrie’s signing. I really think $40M is the right starting money. That gets him a $2M raise from this year’s money, puts him on par with Luka’s contract (I really don’t think this is much of a big deal at all) and gives us a path to getting at least the MLE to use (BAE would be a lot tougher without more money saving deals). 

Now, years and raises? There is the other thing. Like Stein, I’d hope for a 1+1, but also like Stein, that is not the way to Kyrie’s head/heart. Sounds like 4 years to match up with Luka expiring is the right way to go. I’ve pitched 5 years at lesser money, but I think that raise is also important.

If we’re going 4 years, I really hope we pitch and it’s acceptable for there to be no raises. Flat $40M gives us room in the years going forward, and it really matches what his level of play will be at (well…declining salary is probably more accurate, but we’re trying to be delicate with this whole thing).

So, in my mind, 4/$160M is probably the best we should hope for given the circumstances.

What do you mean the best we could hope for? Kyrie has NO leverage. I offer him 3 max. If Kyrie says no, what's he gonna do? He can whine and moan, but he doesn't have options. No one with max cap space is giving him a 4+ year max deal. I'd start with 1+1 as opener then offer him 2 years with a team option for a 3rd, and he can take it or leave it, and see if he can find a team with max cap space thats not a bottom feeder, but will actually want to spend max money on a 30 year old headcase PG for 4-5 years. I think he will have the same luck as Wood getting the money he wants.

I actually think this team could do fine without Kyrie. Depending on further acquisition's I think this team could be better than the one that went to the WCF. People acting like this team is done if Kyrie doesn't sign seem to be missing that we were on a contending trajectory without him. If he doesn't want to take a shorter term deal, if we could swing a S&T, I'd be completely good with that, even if the return aren't ideal fits. It would likely be assets we could more easily flip down the line. I love the fact that Cuban and Nico are making sure they state that despite wanting Kyrie, we will be fine either way. To me means they are not just gonna give Kyrie what he wants.