Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Capela was the 25th pick. Claxton was the 31st pick. I´m not giving up a top 10 pick in a generational draft for a player I can find late in the first or early in the 2nd round just because I suck at my job. That kind of lazy crap lands you right where we are. At worst you keep that top 10 pick, play him for a year and if he is NOT working out AT ALL, you can still get an expiring Capela for him in a trade.

There are soooooooo many assumptions that you are making here and every time you try to advocate for draft picks and capital (which I am not opposed to at all) you cherry pick late round picks like crazy.  Clint Capela was picked between Shabazz Napier and PJ Hairston. The 4 picks after Nic Claxton are guys who haven't even cracked a rotation.

Much like yourself, I am enamored with the idea of adding Taylor Hendricks to this roster, I think he is an opening day starter on this team based on our current roster.  What surprised me though is that you went as far as saying that his floor is Jarrett Allen or JJJ, two all stars this year.  It's a pretty wild assumption to make even if it does happen to become true and I think demonstrates that maybe you put just a little too much faith in the youngins (you also compared him to 4 guys who were 2 inches taller than him which kind of confused me).  

There is a ton of validity to the fact that the Cuban and the Mavs have undervalued draft picks over the years and it's cost them dearly.  There should be some acknowledgement that there is most definitely a world of overvaluing draft picks when you have (hopefully) two top end talents already on the roster.  I'm in favor of using a top 10 pick if we get it, specifically because of Taylor Hendricks, but there is a ton of healthy conversation to be had around the idea of moving it.

[ItsGoTime]

https://youtu.be/Fpfmcgy8ZzU

Interesting.

[Chicagojk]

If Detroit got Wemby I would have no problem moving #10 if kept for Duren.   They probably wouldn't consider moving Duren otherwise.   Detroit does appear to be a team where we may have some trade conversations with a few others on their roster though.

If Charlotte got Wemby, I would also be ok trading #10 for Mark Williams as well.

[dirkfansince1998]

If Detroit got Wemby I would have no problem moving #10 if kept for Duren.   They probably wouldn't consider moving Duren otherwise.   Detroit does appear to be a team where we may have some trade conversations with a few others on their roster though.

If Charlotte got Wemby, I would also be ok trading #10 for Mark Williams as well.

If it wasn´t for a severe lack of 2nd round picks one of Detroit´s bigs would be one of my primary targets. Most likely Stewart. They gave up Bey for 5 2nds. Would imagine that Stewart is available for a similar amount of picks. Especially if they add another PF/C in the draft.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

plus the #6 and #10 picks, plus the 2027 pick. That is a lot of draft capital. I think you can easily get Lavine or DeRozan for that.

Gotta remember free agency happens after the draft.  SnTing Kyrie doesn't really work with 2023 picks unless you're rerouting already chosen players.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

Not trading the 23, trading the 27. It is unprotected, but the package we’re getting back plus moving McGee is worth it IMO.

You can get a heckuva lot more than two role players for an unprotected FRP that many in the league will believe belongs to a team without Luka.

[Dirknows]

Like the desperate news out of Portland and Washington. That suddenly opens up two new Kyrie destinations.

Simons/Nurkic/#5 for Kyrie.
Kuzma/Gafford/Avdija/Morris/#6 for Kyrie.

I like that 2nd trade to be honest.

Doncic/Morris
Green/Hardy
Bullock/Avdija
Kuzma/Kleber
Gafford/Reed
 
plus the #6 and #10 picks, plus the 2027 pick. That is a lot of draft capital. I think you can easily get Lavine or DeRozan for that.

You're not getting a top 6 pick in this draft for Kyrie. Be lucky to get 1 future first and a couple of role players for him. Certainly not someone like Simons.

[Mavs2021]

There are soooooooo many assumptions that you are making here and every time you try to advocate for draft picks and capital (which I am not opposed to at all) you cherry pick late round picks like crazy.  Clint Capela was picked between Shabazz Napier and PJ Hairston. The 4 picks after Nic Claxton are guys who haven't even cracked a rotation.

Much like yourself, I am enamored with the idea of adding Taylor Hendricks to this roster, I think he is an opening day starter on this team based on our current roster.  What surprised me though is that you went as far as saying that his floor is Jarrett Allen or JJJ, two all stars this year.  It's a pretty wild assumption to make even if it does happen to become true and I think demonstrates that maybe you put just a little too much faith in the youngins (you also compared him to 4 guys who were 2 inches taller than him which kind of confused me).  

There is a ton of validity to the fact that the Cuban and the Mavs have undervalued draft picks over the years and it's cost them dearly.  There should be some acknowledgement that there is most definitely a world of overvaluing draft picks when you have (hopefully) two top end talents already on the roster.  I'm in favor of using a top 10 pick if we get it, specifically because of Taylor Hendricks, but there is a ton of healthy conversation to be had around the idea of moving it.

I´m not against moving it, but it has to be for a player that I think moves the needle. Clint Capela does not move the needle. Last year in the play-offs he had a NetRtg of MINUS 25.1. He´s also a 64% career FT shooter. This season the Hawks defense is worse with him on the floor.

If we had a stacked asset base, then you can play both sides of the board, but thanks to our chief, we are down to two draft picks.

Paul Reed plays behind the league MVP. Here are his games this season, when he got 20+ minutes:

19/10/0 with 2 blks, 3 stls
6/8/1 with 3 blks, 2 stls
12/13/3 with 2 blks, 1 stl
16/12/1 with 0 blks, 2 stls
16/14/0 with 2 blks, 0 stls
2/3/0 with 1 blk, 1 stls
10/8/1 with 2 blks, 2stls
17/10/1 with 5 blks, 2 stls

So that is an average of 12/10/1 with 2.1 blks and 1.6 stls, which are basically Capela´s numbers.

Funny enough he started against Capela two games ago. Finished with the 10/8/1/2/2 in just 24 minutes and a game-high +16. Capela played 33 minutes and finished with 12/4/1/1/2 and -13.

Obviously Reed´s performance are much more volatile and he has horrible games, too. At the same time, it´s not really inconceivable that after 30-40 games, he´ll steady his production and give you what Capela does for half the price and with the #10 pick still in your locker.

And yes I am that high on Hendricks. I honestly don´t understand how he´s projected outside the top 5. I can see the timing and the strength in his shot-blocking that will allow him to play some small-ball center for 10-15 minutes per game. I can see his footwork and his movement, that will allow him to play SF/PF next to a legit big. He reads plays well. He moves well without the ball. I saw all that with Jarrett Allen, too.

[LukaMVP]

draft is stacked this year and we are supposed to have a very decent pick (either top10 at least, or nothing), no way would we sell our pick unless it means a prime all-star level player in return. some contracts generally considered bad assets inthepast are only partially guaranteed for next season, so they can be dealt to teams seeking space for some useful role players even without the necessity to throw in any picks.

[Dirknows]

draft is stacked this year and we are supposed to have a very decent pick (either top10 at least, or nothing), no way would we sell our pick unless it means a prime all-star level player in return. some contracts generally considered bad assets inthepast are only partially guaranteed for next season, so they can be dealt to teams seeking space for some useful role players even without the necessity to throw in any picks.

You're assuming we hit on pick 10 or move up to the top 4. Both bold assumptions.

[F Gump]

I think the Mavs wind up keeping Kyrie as I don't know if they can extract the value out of a SnT.

....

Really hard to know Kyrie's value around the league, and at the end of the day his value is probably greater to Dallas than in any SnT.

In theory, Kyrie's highest value MIGHT be what they can get in a sign-and-trade, but it's a really hard path to get to that value.

One of the issues is that the Mavs can't select the destination unilaterally, and shop him for the highest offer. KYRIE is a huge part of the equation, and if he doesn't want to participate in the place you pick, there is no deal. It gets very tricky.

You also have the potential to create "they don't want me" issues with Kyrie as a Mav, if you are exploring SNTs (which he has to be part of). If you explore SNTs with the result that he simply signs elsewhere without you getting anything, you have totally screwed the pooch.

[SleepingHero]

Like the desperate news out of Portland and Washington. That suddenly opens up two new Kyrie destinations.

Simons/Nurkic/#5 for Kyrie.
Kuzma/Gafford/Avdija/Morris/#6 for Kyrie.

I like that 2nd trade to be honest.

Doncic/Morris
Green/Hardy
Bullock/Avdija
Kuzma/Kleber
Gafford/Reed
 
plus the #6 and #10 picks, plus the 2027 pick. That is a lot of draft capital. I think you can easily get Lavine or DeRozan for that.

Hard to do any SnT deals for Kyrie since the draft is 10 days before free agency. Sure the Mavs could try and workout a deal where the team picks whoever they want, but 10 days is a long time and it's unrealistic imo.

If we're operating under the assumption we have to trade Kyrie I'd use him to try and grab CP3+Ayton if possible. Mavs still get a point guard and finally fix the center position. That framework is tricky. Mavs would have to send a bit more to make the salaries matchup. 

But honestly, the Mavs finally got a 2nd star next to Luka. Like an actual bonafide all-NBA star type of guy. He has a multitude of flaws, and he could tank the whole franchise at any time, but I'd rather they just keep Kyrie and fill out the edges. 

I like the way you're thinking though.

[SleepingHero]

Throwing my own hat into the ring of ideas and building off of others here...

What about THJ+McGee+#10 for Bogdanovic+Duren

Seems about right for a Mavs package. A slight overpay. Mavs get a solid vet that they were rumored to be after (and who's locked up for 2 years which lines up with a bunch of other contracts). Also doesn't hurt that Bojan's last year is partially guaranteed, although Spotrac doesn't say for what amount. 

The real prize is of course Duren. Pistons have a big logjam anyways and if they get Wemby they almost have to move 2 of them. 

Money wise its about 700K more, but this still keeps the avenues to use the non-tax MLE open (just stretch waiving Bullock should do).

[Branduil]

At this point I'm convinced the Mavs' big move will be trading for Gobert. It's the most Mavs move imaginable.

Bertans+THJ+McGee for Gobert. Get ready for it

[SkenfromLMF]

At this point I'm convinced the Mavs' big move will be trading for Gobert. It's the most Mavs move imaginable.

Bertans+THJ+McGee for Gobert. Get ready for it

In this apocalyptic narrative would Ben Simmons provide any vitriolic reaction???

It looks to me that Dallas either has to consolidate the salary of THJ and/or Bertans and/or McGee into a distressed but still playable asset. Or they have to find a way to take those contracts and turn them into 2-3 role players on contracts that are a bit overpaid.

What the Kyrie trade has done is take the flexibility out of long playing Bertans contract. Next TDL Bertans might get you to a higher paid player from a team who is needing financial relief. Unfortunately Dallas has to fix things sooner than the timing allows.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Throwing my own hat into the ring of ideas and building off of others here...

What about THJ+McGee+#10 for Bogdanovic+Duren

Seems about right for a Mavs package. A slight overpay.  

I don't think its an overpay.  Break it into its parts:

THJ + McGee for Bogdanovic?  Yes, without hesitation.

#10 for Duren?  Yes, with slight hesitation.  Everyone who would say no to this presumes #10 will be a high upside future star.  So did the teams who took Johnny Davis, Ziaire Williams, Jalen Smith, Cam Reddish, Zach Collins, Thon Maker, Justice Winslow, Elfrid Payton, Austin Rivers and Jimmer Fredette.  That's 10 of the last 12 picks at #10.  Give me the youngster who plays a position of need and has already played against the men of the NBA vs. the projection who hasn't.  If Duren was in this draft and Dallas had the pick, he'd be the projected pick anyway.  Now that we've seen him for a year, the bust potential is much less than taking him with zero NBA experience.

[Chicagojk]

Throwing my own hat into the ring of ideas and building off of others here...

What about THJ+McGee+#10 for Bogdanovic+Duren

Seems about right for a Mavs package. A slight overpay. Mavs get a solid vet that they were rumored to be after (and who's locked up for 2 years which lines up with a bunch of other contracts). Also doesn't hurt that Bojan's last year is partially guaranteed, although Spotrac doesn't say for what amount. 

The real prize is of course Duren. Pistons have a big logjam anyways and if they get Wemby they almost have to move 2 of them. 

Money wise its about 700K more, but this still keeps the avenues to use the non-tax MLE open (just stretch waiving Bullock should do).

I was thinking something similar.  Although it feels like a pick short in order to get both.  Detroit has to start winning and that was at least one of the reasons they held on to Bogdanovic.   The other was their asking price was not met.   So, if they value Bogdanovic as a good first round pick plus player then they will definitely value Duren as a good first round pick (probably late lottery).   I think they only would move Duren if they got the first pick, but it is probably likely they keep him anyway.  

McGee and Hardaway don't do much for them.  McGee would be another center for them and I would rather just re-sign Burks than give up two assets in a trade while taking back Hardaway.     

Maybe if you switched out Stewart instead of Duren?  But this would be less appealing for Dallas.

[Dundalis]

You're assuming we hit on pick 10 or move up to the top 4. Both bold assumptions.

An 80% chance is a bold assumption?

[omahen]

Detroit

Detroit has most of positions covered by high potential youngsters, with the exception of PF. They have been playing dual center line-ups for a while. Is Wemby a C or a PF? I guess you could play him next to a center (similar discussion we had related to Houston and Sengun). What Detroit lacks is a franchise cornerstone. Cunningham showed promise but is injured a lot. Wemby is the only clear cut franchise piece, so what happens if they don't get #1 pick? Scoot Henderson doesn't really fit the picture, Miller could make more sense for them

If Detroit drafts Wemby:
PG: Ivey, Hayes
SG: Cunningham
SF: Bogi
PF: Wemby, Bagley
C: Duren, Wiseman, Stewart

If Detroit drafts Miller:
PG: Ivey, Hayes
SG: Cunningham
SF: Miller
PF: Bogi, Bagley
C: Duren, Wiseman, Stewart

Center position is full in both cases, but I am not sure they would have much interest moving Duren. He could be a starter in both cases. He was pick #13 and proved he can play. I assume he has at least #10 pick value.

[Chicagojk]

If pick 10 is kept, would you trade if for Myles Turner?   It seems like you would be buying at a premium.   Last year he was probably available for less.   I just hate trading for guys at their premium price.  He would certainly help our interior defense.  Could you get back their late first?

Would you trade it for Ayton if the Suns have a disappointing playoffs?   I think this will be a legit conversation for both teams..especially if PHX loses before the finals.  Not sure how I feel about this.

John Collins?  Straight up for pick #10 doesn't work.    There were reports he was almost moved to PHX for Crowder and a first, I believe.  Could we do that similar framework using Bullock and our 27th first?   That salary is awfully tough to swallow though.