Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[DanSchwartzgan]

Ok. But I still think ATL will be salary-sensitive (using the TE increases their payroll by 3M) and Johnson could make sense for the Mavs.

Oh, I’m not arguing against adding Johnson to the deal at all.  He’d be a really nice addition (would love to see him and Green running the floor with Kyrie in the non-Luka minutes).  It is really challenging to determine value here.  I thought Cato’s deal needed Atlanta to do more (take on McGee).  Then you added that plus us getting Johnson.  Who knows what constitutes fair value for moving down 5 spots.

And you are right about Atlanta being ‘salary-sensitive’.  They worked very hard to stay under the tax this last season.  It will be difficult to do next season and then you have the Murray extension kicking in after that and we’ll be talking about which apron are they over at that point.  I was just pointing out the method by which the trade was legal.

If we are really trying to be cost conscious for Atlanta, probably the best thing we could do is send them Maxi and guarantee enough of Reggie to salary March (then they could S/W that amount).  In June, that would be just a bit above Reggie’s guarantee amount.  Next season they’d be at Maxi (11) plus a $2mm S/W for Reggie instead of $20.6mm for Capella (save $7.6mm).  Is Maxi plus some savings better than THJ for Atlanta?  Is Maxi/Reggie for Capela enough to motivate Dallas to drop down 5 spots?  What if we added back Johnson or Griffin Jr.  Or, is the deal fair without exchanging picks?  Capela seems a really logical player for Dallas to target.  He fits what we need and there is a TE, draft picks to exchange and an over abundance of young wings on their side of the ledger.  We just need to get the particulars right.

[Luka77]

How about Richaun Holmes +24 for Wood (S&T) and McGee.

Or if the mavs are desperate to get Ayton....Ayton for Woods (S&T), Reggie, McGee.

[surfpuckmd]

I think the Mavs would definitely say no to this.  The 10th pick and an expiring for DFS?  That is insane.  For a 30yo player with 3 yrs remaining, who, let's be honest, absolutely sucked in BKN.  I love me some Doe Doe, but this is just ridiculous value.  BKN would be lucky to get off that contract right now, and could probably get it done for just a salary dump. To get value for him would be highly unlikely.  I have liked the idea of a Wood SNT going there for him if we can't find another spot for him.  Wood would be a much better fit for BKN than DFS.  But re-acquiring him is basically a homer play - if it were a blind player with his stats, it is a 0/10 idea.  He is a reclamation project at this point.  He was THAT bad.  And tbh, he wasn't good in DAL last year either.  I would be pretty pissed if we used a top 10 pick like this - basically worst case scenario to get off Bertans' contract.  UGH!!! 

Getting a player for the MLE, like Thybulle would be a better play - younger, cheaper, and wouldn't cost a freaking Top 10 pick!!!

Our defense suffered greatly last year after trading Finney-Smith.  Using Reggie Bullock to fill that role was the greatest reason that our team played so poorly after the Kyrie trade.  

I don't think Finney-Smith is a great player.  I'd rather have Cam Johnson, OG Anunoby or Herb Jones for that role.  Unfortunately, we can't afford those players.  Finney-Smith is a fairly good defensive player who can hit open shots.  We know he fits well with our team.   His salary is reasonable.  We don't have anyway to absorb his salary other than trading for him.  So, we'd be trading Davis Bertans and his terrible contract for Finney-Smith and his reasonable contract. 

I don't think we'd be able to get Thybulle for the taxpayer MLE.  He's also much more of an offensive liability than Finney-Smith (although better defensively)

The deal also gives us the 21st pick in the draft.  So, we'd be trading down from 10 to 21.  This would still allow us to take a shot in the draft on a young player.  

I think this is the rare message board proposal that benefits all three teams.

[BigDirk41]

Our defense suffered greatly last year after trading Finney-Smith.  Using Reggie Bullock to fill that role was the greatest reason that our team played so poorly after the Kyrie trade.  

I don't think Finney-Smith is a great player.  I'd rather have Cam Johnson, OG Anunoby or Herb Jones for that role.  Unfortunately, we can't afford those players.  Finney-Smith is a fairly good defensive player who can hit open shots.  We know he fits well with our team.   His salary is reasonable.  We don't have anyway to absorb his salary other than trading for him.  So, we'd be trading Davis Bertans and his terrible contract for Finney-Smith and his reasonable contract. 

I don't think we'd be able to get Thybulle for the taxpayer MLE.  He's also much more of an offensive liability than Finney-Smith (although better defensively)

The deal also gives us the 21st pick in the draft.  So, we'd be trading down from 10 to 21.  This would still allow us to take a shot in the draft on a young player.  

I think this is the rare message board proposal that benefits all three teams.

Hard pass on this deal. I wish DFS all the best, but it's time to move on. He was slipping last year. That may or may not improve. Definitely not trading down to get DFS.

[Luka77]

Our defense suffered greatly last year after trading Finney-Smith.  Using Reggie Bullock to fill that role was the greatest reason that our team played so poorly after the Kyrie trade.  

I don't think Finney-Smith is a great player.  I'd rather have Cam Johnson, OG Anunoby or Herb Jones for that role.  Unfortunately, we can't afford those players.  Finney-Smith is a fairly good defensive player who can hit open shots.  We know he fits well with our team.   His salary is reasonable.  We don't have anyway to absorb his salary other than trading for him.  So, we'd be trading Davis Bertans and his terrible contract for Finney-Smith and his reasonable contract. 

I don't think we'd be able to get Thybulle for the taxpayer MLE.  He's also much more of an offensive liability than Finney-Smith (although better defensively)

The deal also gives us the 21st pick in the draft.  So, we'd be trading down from 10 to 21.  This would still allow us to take a shot in the draft on a young player.  

I think this is the rare message board proposal that benefits all three teams.

The Mavs defense was terrible all season even with DFS just slightly less terrible with him.  Also he was a bad shooter on offense all last season.  If he has another season like last season that contract is going to look really bad.  The Mavs were lucky to get out of it when they did.  They sold high.  The Nets had instant regret adding his contract after the trade.  

I like DFS as a locker room guy and his journey to the NBA is inspirational and amazing.  But if his current level of play continues the Nets will have to salary dump him.

[surfpuckmd]

Here's an idea I haven't seen yet.  

Robert Covington fell out of Ty Lue's rotation.  Marcus Morris, Batum, Zubac and Plumlee all played significantly more minutes at the end of the season and in the playoffs than Covington.  Covington is on the decline but remains a good defensive player and hit almost 40 percent from three last year.  I believe he'd be a good fit on the Mavs at power forward.  

Do you think the Clippers would do a Reggie Bullock for Robert Covington trade?  

The Clippers would then waive Bullock and save approximately $6 million against the cap.  With the luxury tax, they'd save quite a bit more than that overall.

I think it would be a clear talent upgrade for the Mavs and a money-saving move for the Clippers.

[mvossman]

Here's an idea I haven't seen yet.  

Robert Covington fell out of Ty Lue's rotation.  Marcus Morris, Batum, Zubac and Plumlee all played significantly more minutes at the end of the season and in the playoffs than Covington.  Covington is on the decline but remains a good defensive player and hit almost 40 percent from three last year.  I believe he'd be a good fit on the Mavs at power forward.  

Do you think the Clippers would do a Reggie Bullock for Robert Covington trade?  

The Clippers would then waive Bullock and save approximately $6 million against the cap.  With the luxury tax, they'd save quite a bit more than that overall.

I think it would be a clear talent upgrade for the Mavs and a money-saving move for the Clippers.

There was a lot of talk about this very move at the TDL after we traded away Dorian.  I'm not against something like this depending on how other things play out, but bullock's expiring might be needed/useful for acquiring a starter, which would be a higher priority.

[ItsGoTime]

BTW, all those years of sweeping the poor offseasons under the rug by saying, next year is really the time to do something, has finally caught up to us. If only we had went for the doubles instead of constantly going for the home run we would be set up quite differently now.

[Mavs2021]

BTW, all those years of sweeping the poor offseasons under the rug by saying, next year is really the time to do something, has finally caught up to us. If only we had went for the doubles instead of constantly going for the home run we would be set up quite differently now.

Yeah at the end of the day it´s like this:

You want to trade #10 for a skilled defensive wing/center. Which teams are voluntarily looking to give up such a player? This is the #10 pick. One pick. At #10. Players like Bridges, Anunoby, Brown and company are valued at a player/pick combination that´s probably worth four 1st round picks. Otherwise you are just getting "trash" back.

There is not a single trade that generates more long-term value than just drafting Hendricks/Walker/Black/Wallace. They are exactly what you are looking for in terms of players, but cause you might want to wait three years till they are a 18 PPG all defensive wings, you rather make another short-term decision.

Two years ago....

15/14/1 with 2.0 blocks On/Off +10.5
14/8/2 with 1.6 blocks On/Off +8.4

Players are the same age....

One will cost you THJ+ the 10th pick, the other might get you the 24th pick, but definitely the 38th pick plus McGee out.

[ItsGoTime]

Yeah at the end of the day it´s like this:

You want to trade #10 for a skilled defensive wing/center. Which teams are voluntarily looking to give up such a player? This is the #10 pick. One pick. At #10. Players like Bridges, Anunoby, Brown and company are valued at a player/pick combination that´s probably worth four 1st round picks. Otherwise you are just getting "trash" back.

There is not a single trade that generates more long-term value than just drafting Hendricks/Walker/Black/Wallace. They are exactly what you are looking for in terms of players, but cause you might want to wait three years till they are a 18 PPG all defensive wings, you rather make another short-term decision.

Two years ago....

15/14/1 with 2.0 blocks On/Off +10.5
14/8/2 with 1.6 blocks On/Off +8.4

Players are the same age....

One will cost you THJ+ the 10th pick, the other might get you the 24th pick, but definitely the 38th pick plus McGee out.

All I care about is the #10 being at least a double. I don’t care if that double (or better) comes through trade or just drafting there. It being our absolute best asset in years must jumpstart the A(+) offseason we have to have.

[DanSchwartzgan]

All I care about is the #10 being at least a double. I don’t care if that double (or better) comes through trade or just drafting there. It being our absolute best asset in years must jumpstart the A(+) offseason we have to have.

This is where I fall.  You have to generate value.  It doesn't really matter how.  Taking the pick at 10 gives you a shot at value...if you nail it.  But that is unknowable as we sit here today and all of the players we all pine over might be gone by #10 anyway.

Trading down gives you 2-3 shots at value:

1.  If you scout well, you might find your Adebayo instead of D. Smith or Frank (no guarantee here either, just like at #10)
2.  You might get a useful player who is a known quantity that better fits what you are trying to accomplish
3.  You might move off of salary that allows you to use other mechanisms (like the full MLE or a TE) to acquire other assets.

All this to say, you better be damned sure the guy you take at #10 is THE guy.

[Mavs2021]

This is where I fall.  You have to generate value.  It doesn't really matter how.  Taking the pick at 10 gives you a shot at value...if you nail it.  But that is unknowable as we sit here today and all of the players we all pine over might be gone by #10 anyway.

Trading down gives you 2-3 shots at value:

1.  If you scout well, you might find your Adebayo instead of D. Smith or Frank (no guarantee here either, just like at #10)
2.  You might get a useful player who is a known quantity that better fits what you are trying to accomplish
3.  You might move off of salary that allows you to use other mechanisms (like the full MLE or a TE) to acquire other assets.

All this to say, you better be damned the guy you take at #10 is THE guy.

I´d argue it´s still easier to nail the #10 pick in a deep draft than not get screwed over in a trade, when you are obviously the inferior front office and you have less information about the player than they do. At least all the evaulation is in your hands.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I´d argue it´s still easier to nail the #10 pick in a deep draft than not get screwed over in a trade, when you are obviously the inferior front office and you have less information about the player than they do. At least all the evaulation is in your hands.

I don't understand.  How is it easier to evaluate unknown talent than known talent?

[mvossman]

I´d argue it´s still easier to nail the #10 pick in a deep draft than not get screwed over in a trade, when you are obviously the inferior front office and you have less information about the player than they do. At least all the evaulation is in your hands.

Last time we had a pick in this range we got DSJ and would have taken Frank (and I believe they were the consensus 8 and 9 picks).  There is a big miss rate, even in what are projected to be deep drafts and sometimes the hits take years to get there (especially for big men).  From a long term asset accumulation standpoint, drafting is the way to go.  From a get good enough to keep Luka here for another contract, you are probably better off trading (especially when the biggest need is a defensive center that generally takes years to develop out of the draft).

[F Gump]

Do you think the Clippers would do a Reggie Bullock for Robert Covington trade? 

I think that would be exactly the kind of deal LAC would want because if they s-w RB, the cap savings is 10M (which translates to 70M in total savings this season when tax is added). Edited to add: Bullock guarantee would have to be increased by a sliver, to salary-match the RB/RC trade, and it's less of a bump under July rules.

It makes sense for Dallas if Covington can still play. I'm not convinced the answer is yes, but there's no point in doing it if he can't.

[Jason Terry]

Lakers get:
Hardy
THJ
Bertans
Bullock
10th pick

Mavs get:
James
Vanderbilt
47th pick

[DanSchwartzgan]

Eric Pincus was on the Locked-On podcast this morning.  Good listen.  Largely about the CBA, but he did talk Kyrie and Ayton a little bit.  He made an interesting point about C. Paul to Atlanta for Collins as a way to save money for the Hawks.  The Hawks would want something other than the privilege of paying Chris Paul to go away, but Phoenix can't offer a pick.  I wonder if you can tie that in with Ayton to Dallas and find ways to satisfy everyone's wishes.  

I'm not sure how to count CP's salary, but I wonder if there is a world in which Maxi/Paul/#10 ends up on the Hawks, Ayton and #15 end up in Dallas and Collins and THJ end up in Phoenix.

[SleepingHero]

Eric Pincus was on the Locked-On podcast this morning.  Good listen.  Largely about the CBA, but he did talk Kyrie and Ayton a little bit.  He made an interesting point about C. Paul to Atlanta for Collins as a way to save money for the Hawks.  The Hawks would want something other than the privilege of paying Chris Paul to go away, but Phoenix can't offer a pick.  I wonder if you can tie that in with Ayton to Dallas and find ways to satisfy everyone's wishes.  

I'm not sure how to count CP's salary, but I wonder if there is a world in which Maxi/Paul/#10 ends up on the Hawks, Ayton and #15 end up in Dallas and Collins and THJ end up in Phoenix.

I love reading your ideas. +41

[Chicagojk]

Eric Pincus was on the Locked-On podcast this morning.  Good listen.  Largely about the CBA, but he did talk Kyrie and Ayton a little bit.  He made an interesting point about C. Paul to Atlanta for Collins as a way to save money for the Hawks.  The Hawks would want something other than the privilege of paying Chris Paul to go away, but Phoenix can't offer a pick.  I wonder if you can tie that in with Ayton to Dallas and find ways to satisfy everyone's wishes.  

I'm not sure how to count CP's salary, but I wonder if there is a world in which Maxi/Paul/#10 ends up on the Hawks, Ayton and #15 end up in Dallas and Collins and THJ end up in Phoenix.

That is really interesting.  Phx gets Collins who can be in their finishing group.  Hardaway is a good depth piece who will get a lot of good looks.  With just the MLE would the prioritize point or center? That would be the big question if it would be enough for PHX.

I actually like that for Dallas.  Fits the bill for a win now move.  One with serious questions though, but also allows them to keep a pick to add another young player.

[F Gump]

Eric Pincus was on the Locked-On podcast this morning.  Good listen.  Largely about the CBA, but he did talk Kyrie and Ayton a little bit.  He made an interesting point about C. Paul to Atlanta for Collins as a way to save money for the Hawks.  The Hawks would want something other than the privilege of paying Chris Paul to go away, but Phoenix can't offer a pick.  I wonder if you can tie that in with Ayton to Dallas and find ways to satisfy everyone's wishes.  

I'm not sure how to count CP's salary, but I wonder if there is a world in which Maxi/Paul/#10 ends up on the Hawks, Ayton and #15 end up in Dallas and Collins and THJ end up in Phoenix.

1 If his contract is "as is," CP3 counts 15.8 for PHX, but 30.8 for ATL. I assume it's in June, to avoid the issues of CP3 g'tee and new Apron 1 rules for all 3 teams.
2 The match doesn't work for ATL (39.8 incoming, but only 23.5 outgoing). ATL has to offload salary somewhere else (about 8.5M of it to team 4) to make it work.
3  I certainly wouldn't do Maxi-THJ-10 for Ayton-15, but it feels like about what PHX would be asking. I at least make PHX also take Javale, which is then a salary wash for DAL in yr 1.