Trade & FA 2023-24: Booker Likes NYK? Vogel Out? Suns Imploding?

[KillerLeft]

Oh, I don't know. I think that two firsts, a second, and three pick swaps could get you back a pretty good player. Maybe not 10-best in the league, but certainly in that 15-30 range.

The term used was “superstar”…Siakim is the biggest name we’ve discussed, and he’s not close to that level. Ayton isn’t even a player most teams would want. If Brooklyn wanted him he would be a net right now.

I think the package you describe can get someone like that, for sure.

[F Gump]

Everyone keeps ignoring me when I say, "Butler."

Would love to have Butler, but
1 He's not available now unless MIA is trading for a star. You want to send them Kyrie or Luka?
2 At some point, MIA may decide to just trade him, once he's broken down. Don't want him then.

[Jason Terry]

Would love to have Butler, but
1 He's not available now unless MIA is trading for a star. You want to send them Kyrie or Luka?
2 At some point, MIA may decide to just trade him, once he's broken down. Don't want him then.

See, to me he’s the type of guy to maybe go after as a low cost gamble. Lowry, Butler, Robinson all bad contracts. Miami is in a bad place

[F Gump]

See, to me he’s the type of guy to maybe go after as a low cost gamble. Lowry, Butler, Robinson all bad contracts. Miami is in a bad place

1 We agree Butler would be desirable. But MIA has to be willing to trade him.
2 I expect the only way MIA trades him now would be in a package for a star-level player.
3 If he was available, (a) the contract doesn't scare me, even though it is massive, but (b) I wouldn't include Green or Hardy (or Luka or Kyrie, of course).
4 The day may come when he's so broken down they will trade him for "low cost" but we aren't there

As a side note, Green is turning into that same sort of player, at a fraction of the cost, which is why you don't consider trading him. Green is beginning to look like he can be a Butler or Middleton type.

[DanSchwartzgan]

My concern would be that the asking price for an impact player under contract may still be sky high. Teams were apparently offering 3 1sts for OG and 4 1sts for Bridges at the deadline and that wasn't enough to close the deal. Dallas can't match an offer like that unless they put Green on the table.

The Kyrie discount idea is interesting but a little scary. Unless they are 100% sure he's on board, I wouldn't do anything that makes him feel my commitment is wavering. After all, they've got a title to win before the implosion can happen.

All firsts are not created equally.  The four for Bridges are thought to be from NY.  Some of those are crap Firsts's.  Dallas would have to offer unprotected picks if they go the 25/27 route.  If they go 24/26, then 26 could have a protection in 26, but would have to go unprotected in 27 or convert to something other than a first after that (like pick swaps since we don't have seconds).  Toronto is going to have a problem on their hands if Siakam makes All NBA and they don't want to pay him the Super-Max.  I think that creates an opportunity with Poeltl being insurance.

Kyrie would certainly have to sign off in advance in such a move.  We have a history of this kind of thing.  He'd be in on the plan from the go and would even know the target(s) he'd be giving up money for.  I said I wasn't going to get into worlds where Kyrie doesn't return, but more than LAL, I fear a Phoenix attempt to get Kyrie using Ayton.  If it was a straight up deal, then Kyrie has to take a discount.  There are ways to add a little salary from Phoenix to get him to his number, but they don't have a ton of options for trades or S&T's to add to the deal.

[DanSchwartzgan]

So on the stretch waive of Bertans……..that would be his next year salary plus the full PO the following year. Would it be possible to wait to stretch waive him until he’s under the games played threshold and waive him mid-season and only pay the partial guarantee from his PO? 

Or would that have to wait until the offseason? 

Also i wonder if tanking teams would view his contract as expiring if we include cash for the PO buyout

The number I'm using is from this coming summer.  $17mm for next season plus $5mm partial guarantee for 24/25.  So, $22mm divided by five years equals $4.4 cap cost per year.  I believe FG had a more thorough explanation of this in a post the other day.

[Mikelorenzo]

If we extend KI I don't see the need to look for another star, my goal would be to extend Wood at a fair price (apparently not too high) and use those remaining selections in good complementary players... Capela or Turner, Cam Johnson, Caruso,Hunter,Grant ,Isaak(if he doesn't get hurt again) or even try to recover DFS..if we get 2 of those I think we'll be in a very good place

[F Gump]

The number I'm using is from this coming summer.  $17mm for next season plus $5mm partial guarantee for 24/25.  So, $22mm divided by five years equals $4.4 cap cost per year.  I believe FG had a more thorough explanation of this in a post the other day.

Thanks, DS. I will post some more numbers to work with in a while, when I have some time to write more at length. But one important note to keep in mind -- on these calculations, there are different numbers, different ways to count salaries, and different uses for cap room, taxpayer, and hard cap (apron) numbers. On some it's total salary (for 15), not just 12. Minimums don't work the same in all cases. It messes me up as well, and the numbers I used before may need revising.

You also wrote "I fear a Phoenix attempt to get Kyrie using Ayton.  If it was a straight up deal, then Kyrie has to take a discount.  There are ways to add a little salary from Phoenix to get him to his number, but they don't have a ton of options for trades or S&T's to add to the deal."

I'll address that with more number details later as well, but my general comment is that PHX has to do a lot of amputation to make that possible. Probably way more than is possible.

The idea that Kyrie might just sign there is pure clickbait, aka Windy talking out of his ample azz. Start with the fact that he asked out of BKN because he wanted some team who would offer him the max (since BKN would not). I'd say that has no real chance of changing. He knows it's a business, where you can be shipped from team to team at their whims, and he's going to take care of his business first.

Wave a magic wand to get rid of all of CP3, Shamet, and Payne with no salary coming back, and KD-Booker-Ayton + empty roster charges leaves them with less than MLE money.  It's not even close to what he wants.

As for a SNT, that requires BOTH of (a) Dallas cooperation, which cannot be assumed if Dallas wants him, and (b) much of the same blood-letting of contracts as previously mentioned, to stay under the hard cap and be allowed to do a SNT, as even KD-Booker-Paul-Kyrie (max), with Ayton outgoing, busts the hard cap by a lot.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

If we extend KI I don't see the need to look for another star, my goal would be to extend Wood at a fair price (apparently not too high) 

Wood is going to be cancer before this season is over.
Good thing he isn't returning.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I'll address that with more number details later as well, but my general comment is that PHX has to do a lot of amputation to make that possible. Probably way more than is possible.

The idea that Kyrie might just sign there is pure clickbait, aka Windy talking out of his ample azz. Start with the fact that he asked out of BKN because he wanted some team who would offer him the max (since BKN would not). I'd say that has no real chance of changing. He knows it's a business, where you can be shipped from team to team at their whims, and he's going to take care of his business first.

Wave a magic wand to get rid of all of CP3, Shamet, and Payne with no salary coming back, and KD-Booker-Ayton + empty roster charges leaves them with less than MLE money.  It's not even close to what he wants.

As for a SNT, that requires BOTH of (a) Dallas cooperation, which cannot be assumed if Dallas wants him, and (b) much of the same blood-letting of contracts as previously mentioned, to stay under the hard cap and be allowed to do a SNT, as even KD-Booker-Paul-Kyrie (max), with Ayton outgoing, busts the hard cap by a lot.

Arrrgh.  Forgot about potential of Phoenix having a hard cap issue with a Kyrie S&T.  Slaps forehead.  It wasn't just Windy.  Stein mentions it on his podcast with Chris Haynes also.  My base case is Kyrie stays here, but Windy, Karalla and Stein seemed like a lot of smoke.  In fairness, not all of them painted a direct swap.  Some said Ayton to Dallas.  Stein/Haynes said Phoenix still has interest in Irving.  You are correct.  It would be tough to connect the dots there on a direct swap.  There are ways to get Ayton here that don't include Irving.  

---

I'm not so rigid about the level of player.  Unlikely to happen again, but you can already see the dynamic of the team changing with Kyrie's talent.  With you on Green and Hardy being untouchable.

One interesting question is what level is the least you'd be willing to take.  Is it OG level?  DFS level?  Where is the line.  Oh, and what position.

[Mavs2021]

So the projected numbers are



134 (cap)

162 (tax)

168 (apron)



I don´t see any scenario, where they S/W Bertans, since they´d have to guarantee his full salary to do so, and carry $6.5M annually for the next five years, when the other option is 17/5/0/0/0. Better chance they waive McGee´s guaranteed $11.7M over five years.



Looking at the overall free agent market at PF/C, I have come to the conclusion that it will be mutually benefitial for the Mavs and the players to retain Wood/Powell using bird rights. Won´t be an issue with Powell. Haha about Wood.



I´m still not comfortable with the frontcourt depth. I want a minimum veteran plus a smaller trade. I´m still a healthy Zach Collins believer. So let´s say Javale McGee + 2nd round pick + cash is an interesting option. I´m confident two 2nd rounders would get it done (cash = pay to buy additional 2nd rounder option). Kevin Love or Dario Saric would be welcome veteran minimum options.



So let´s say Kyrie gets his $46.9M. We come to an agreement with Wood on a 30/2 extension and Powell accepts a 24/3 extension. You can always trade Wood mid-season, but don´t lose the asset.



I also believe AJ Lawson has shown enough that they´ll convert his two-way deal early to a three year minimum contract.



That puts us around 178-180M already (with THJ+Bertans on the roster), in which I consider one of the cheaper off-season versions. Guess a lot will depend on what cash Cuban is willing to splash. Therefore...



Previously I did not consider the possibility that Myles Turner or John Collins would be worth two lightly protected 1st round picks, but if you re-route negative assets like THJ/Bertans to save some salary that becomes an actual option. Since the Hawks have no interest or ability to add salary, let´s go the Myles Turner direction. Maybe we re-route Z. Collins to Indiana alongside Bertans/THJ for Turner/Nwora. 



So let´s say the big move is



Turner/Nwora to Dallas

THJ/Bertans/Z. Collins/2025 + 2027 1st round picks to Indiana

McGee/2025 2nd round pick + cash to Spurs



Remaining three roster spots are rookies/veteran minimum free agents.



I´d try to find a cheap center. There will be plenty of veteran minimum options: Noel/Len/Drummond/Biyombo/R. Lopez/Dieng. Ideally you get one of the younger veterans (Bryant/Bitadze/Azubuike/Bradley/Wagner/Metu/Hayes/Reid), but that will be a hard sell with that fairly loaded frontcourt rotation and some (Hayes/Reid/Bryant) will get offers exceeding the minimum.



You must have a lot of confidence in your young client as an agent, if you want to push him toward the Mavs for minutes. On paper your client can push Powell for the full back-up role behind Turner. I´ll be cautiously optimistic and pick Azubuike here. He has no shot in Utah with Kessler as he´s a very similar player, too. To the Mavs he brings the strength/size that nobody else in our "finesse" frontcourt has to offer, so he could carve out a role. He´s certainly not above the minimum yet. Furthermore he has shown glimpses before getting injured. PLEASE PLEASE let´s not re-visit McGee vs. young veteran C this off-season, if it is there financially. No stuff like Len over Azubuike.



The free agent market for rotational guards is actually pretty good, but with our limited financial options that will prove difficult and you also don´t want to mess with Hardy´s minutes and more importantly his place in the food chain. That kind of makes me hesitant with regards to DSJ, although I think he´s the most gettable young veteran minimum back-up option.



I wonder what kind of offers RJ Hampton will get. You´d probably have to guarantee him the back-up PG role with 1000 regular season minutes minimum (60 games x 18 MPG). What works in our favour is that he´ll be no priority for FOs of young/rebuilding teams. They´ll have to justify their own draft picks by supplying them minutes. So like with Azubuike, I choose optimism. Finally Dragic on the vet minimum. He´ll be 37. He can be a leader for the team, but without any guaranteed minutes. 



Irving 46.9

Luka 40.0

Turner 20.9

Wood 14.4

Kleber 11.0

Bullock 10.4

Powell 7.0

Green 4.7

Nwora 3.0

Dragic 1.9 (vet min capslot)

Saric 1.9 (vet min capslot)

Lawson 1.9 (vet min capslot)

Azubuike 1.9 (vet min capslot)

Hampton 1.9 (vet min capslot)

Hardy 1.7

============

169.5



Don´s see how you can get far lower salary-wise without killing the competitiveness of the team.



If you get the sense, the rotation is not veterany enough for the play-offs and some of the younger players don´t develop as you expect, you can always package Wood with a combination of Hampton/Azubuike/Lawson. #young player trade value.  



Doncic/Hampton/Dragic

Irving/Hardy/Lawson

Green/Bullock/Nwora

Wood/Kleber/Saric

Turner/Powell/Azubuike

My main conclusion  is that Wood/Powell extensions seem the most likely way forward, if Irving stays.

If Irving wants out, it becomes a totally different mess. My short version is trade for Lillard/Grant (Irving to LA/Wood to Portland).

Sorry for the long-ass post.

[cow]

One interesting question is what level is the least you'd be willing to take.  Is it OG level?  DFS level?  Where is the line.  Oh, and what position.

I don't think you can define it that way.  If opportunity presents itself, you take just about any upgrade to talent.  What's the saying?  The rising tide lifts all boats.  I think the only thing you'd turn down or be cautious of at this point, and this is assuming Kyrie works out and is in the long term plans, is another ball dominate player in his prime.  I do think someone exiting their prime could work (Jimmy Butler has come up in conversations) but you need to be careful not paying for the name (Lowry).  Further, if a big three is the goal, you need the Chris Bosh type player who is willing to sacrifice.

Also, for a DFS level player.  Those are better home grown than acquired.  That might sound obvious but I just don't see those types of players worth spending assets are or paying them their first big contract.

[F Gump]

Arrrgh.  Forgot about potential of Phoenix having a hard cap issue with a Kyrie S&T.

Some numbers related to tax and hard cap and Mavs situation this summer ...

1 With 134M cap, tax should land at about 162.76M and apron at about 169.5M.
2 Where are the Mavs? They are far over the cap. Technically they won't pay tax if they don't want to. Their starting point with 9 existing salaries (that assumes they give Kyrie the max, and the others all walk) would be $155.6M, and they can fill the remaining 6 slots with rookie free agents who make $1.1M each. The result is a total just under the tax line 162.2M. That's a very unlikely choice, however.

WOOD/POWELL - In these scenarios, both of these players are let go, and have to be replaced.

THE BERTANS FACTOR - If they opted to stretch-waive Bertans, it does add a bit of room, but maybe not enough to change the direction. The money due gets spread over multiple years, but they would have to add another FA contract into the mix. I'll assume he's a veteran, where the minimums cost 2M each, and at the bottom line this s-w would ADD another $10.6M to spending possibilities, and in the scenario above they would be at 151.6M using a DB s-w.

ADJUSTMENTS AND HARD CAP ISSUES
1 I think it's better to pencil them in for 14.5 player salaries, not 15. They have to have 14. As we saw this season, the last slot was a series of non-guaranteed longshots, a couple 10-days, and will end with Ross getting paid for about 1/3 of a season. It probably adds up to more than 0.5, I suspect.
2 Of course, it's quite unlikely that they use the entire back side of the roster on rookies. They have no pick. And they will want to have as much playable veteran talent as possible, chasing a title. So let's say that 4.5 of those last 5.5 slots, in our 'cheapest way possible,' will go to veterans who will play on a minimum salary deal. Those veterans cost just a hair under $2M each. Now the cap total is at about 165.7M.  (Or, with a DB s-w, it's about 155.1M.)
4 However, the apron is now in play, and some adjustments start getting in the way. For the HARD CAP limit, all incentives count as if they are met, but so far there are none. And the rookie FA counts at 2M unless he is their draft pick. Assuming Kyrie doesn't get incentives, the APRON total is now 166.6M. (Or, with a DB s-w, it's about 156M.)


That 155M roster looks like this, and allows about 7M to be spent and not pay tax, or about 13M to be spent and stay under the hard cap.
Bigs - McGee, Kleber
Wings - Green, Bullock, THJ
Playmakers - Luka, Kyrie, Hardy
Unsigned so far -  6.5 players on minimum salary


THE ALTERNATIVE TO ALL THIS RESTRICTIVE ROSTER-BUILDING
Given all of the above, assuming they re-sign Kyrie, I think they go past the hard cap. The DB s-w seems more likely than not, although it sure would be better if they could find a way to move him off their cap instead.

I can see them wanting to keep Powell, and him wanting to stay, but hopefully with a less-than-MLE salary. I'm about 50-50 on what will happen with Wood, and imo it hinges on how useful (or not) he is when it's playoff time. Right now it doesn't feel they would want to give him what he wants, and a good showing when it counts could change that. He does have a minor potential to bring DAL something in a sign-and-trade, if he gets interest at a more-than-MLE level from a team without cap space.

If you pencil in a DB s-w, 9.5M for Powell, 7M for a TxMLE guy, and 4.5 veteran minimums, you're at about 169M, so in theory you might can cobble together an under-apron team if you had to. But if you either keep Wood, or s-n-t him and get a salary back, you've flown past the line.

[Dundalis]

Honestly, trading Hardaway and a FRP for DFS and I’m good. I’d rather have Doe than Ayton. I don’t think we need much help anyways. Grant to me should be on the high end of our wish list

I love Dodo, but he's not remotely worth a FRP. Dorian's defense has taken a clear step down this year IMO, and he was still part of the team that had the 6th worst defense in the league. If I'm giving up a FRP, im giving up multiple to get a defensive wing who is ideally younger and with a more diverse offensive skillset than just catch and shoot 3's. Green's play is eye opening having a defensive lynchpin who can actually do things on offense beyond stand in the corner and hit a 3. Give me more of that.

If we extend KI I don't see the need to look for another star, my goal would be to extend Wood at a fair price (apparently not too high) and use those remaining selections in good complementary players... Capela or Turner, Cam Johnson, Caruso,Hunter,Grant ,Isaak(if he doesn't get hurt again) or even try to recover DFS..if we get 2 of those I think we'll be in a very good place

I would put every asset we have, potentially including Green (dependant on the player of course, and Green's progression the rest of the season, which has been a huge surprise to where I now legit am not even sure what his ceiling is) into getting another star if they are two way. The complimentary pieces in FA should be coming to Dallas regardless, as having Luka/Kyrie will make us a vet destination over all but a very small number of teams. If we can get some good role players too on the cheap in trades, then great, but if a star two way guy is available, that should be priority number one. The Luka Kyrie combo will always have a defensive deficit that eats into their possibly league best offensive output as far as duo's go. Having a third star level talent would also give us a clear advantage over some of the other Western Conference teams with superstar duos moving forward, teams we don't necessarily have a huge edge on other than maybe just health, not to mention some of the upcoming teams with young studs on the rise. Having another star next to Luka is great, but now we are just in a position where we are on a level with some of the other teams in the west, rather than ahead. I'd throw everything at trying to get ahead.

[MAVS-SLO]

Great post Dan.

I'm perfectly ok if we can resign all players in the offseason and go into next season with the same roster as we have today and wait until next TDL to trade for forward.

If the price in the summer are to big and players like Grant aren't available, i'm all in on waiting for the TDL to see if the prices for the players will fall.

[Mavs2021]

I love Dodo, but he's not remotely worth a FRP. Dorian's defense has taken a clear step down this year IMO, and he was still part of the team that had the 6th worst defense in the league. If I'm giving up a FRP, im giving up multiple to get a defensive wing who is ideally younger and with a more diverse offensive skillset than just catch and shoot 3's. Green's play is eye opening having a defensive lynchpin who can actually do things on offense beyond stand in the corner and hit a 3. Give me more of that.


I would put every asset we have, potentially including Green (dependant on the player of course, and Green's progression the rest of the season, which has been a huge surprise to where I now legit am not even sure what his ceiling is) into getting another star if they are two way.

Nah. You don´t touch Green (or Hardy) at this point. What Green has shown is borderline #3 player level and he´s on a perfect timeline with Luka.

Imagine how good this team would be going forward if they had just kept Brunson. You can use one protected 1st to get Hart. Another two 2nds to get Vanderbilt, instead of splitting all that up for Kyrie.

That´s pretty crazy and shows how badly this Brunson botch has effected our roster building possibilities.

His averages are now up to 24/4/6 shooting his usual super-high efficient 48/41/84, not that far off Irving´s 27/5/5, at HALF the cost.

You could even argue that on one hand Luka and Randle being somewhat similar players has helped him make a smooth transition into a new 1-2 punch situation, but also shows that with a little sacrifice by Luka, there was further upside in Brunson´s game.

[Dundalis]

Nah. You don´t touch Green (or Hardy) at this point. What Green has shown is borderline #3 player level and he´s on a perfect timeline with Luka.

Imagine how good this team would be going forward if they had just kept Brunson. You can use one protected 1st to get Hart. Another two 2nds to get Vanderbilt, instead of splitting all that up for Kyrie.

That´s pretty crazy and shows how badly this Brunson botch has effected our roster building possibilities.

His averages are now up to 24/4/6 shooting his usual super-high efficient 48/41/84, not that far off Irving´s 27/5/5, at HALF the cost.

You could even argue that on one hand Luka and Randle being somewhat similar players has helped him make a smooth transition into a new 1-2 punch situation, but also shows that with a little sacrifice by Luka, there was further upside in Brunson´s game.

Maybe, but again it's player dependant. No player is truly untouchable outside Luka. Green could have played his way out of being available for most players by the end of the season. Hardy is much less likely to do that.

I agree, not signing Brunson to that cheap contract was a huge gaff. Brunson however might have had one of the most unforeseen skillset improvements we've seen from a player in a very long time. Certainly at the time we were able to resign him (which was def not at any time during his final season as he def going to NYK way before he actually signed the contract), he was not near the player he is now. 

But there are all sorts of unintended outcomes that have played out that might not have. Brunson, Dinwiddie, DFS still around, Green maybe doesnt get the playing time and gets traded away before we understand his potential. Also plenty of players don't really unlock things until they leave a situation. Things don't always play out the same way doing these retrospective hypotheticals.

For example Brunson is putting up his current stats ranking 3rd in the NBA in time of possession (behind Luka and Harden), and 4th in dribbles per possession. Kyrie on the other hand is producing close to career best numbers ranked 23rd in time of possession, and 78th in dribbles per possession. He ranks slightly below Steph Curry in both these rankings this year. Both Brunson and Dinwiddie are ball pounders who produce more having much more of the ball, their numbers are suppressed without it. Kyrie for all the talk, isn't. That's actually pretty relevant when talking about whether Brunson would be able to do anything close to what he's currently doing in NYK with Luka if he was still around or if he would have been an equal fit to what Luka and Kyrie might do together moving forward.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Wood is going to be cancer before this season is over.
Good thing he isn't returning.

You can thank Kidd for that.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

You can thank Kidd for that.

Exactly.
Kidd isn't handling players well.
Apart from him not knowing how to coach.
Kidd's making it harder for the Mavs to compete.

[DanSchwartzgan]

ADJUSTMENTS AND HARD CAP ISSUES

1 I think it's better to pencil them in for 14.5 player salaries, not 15. They have to have 14. As we saw this season, the last slot was a series of non-guaranteed longshots, a couple 10-days, and will end with Ross getting paid for about 1/3 of a season. It probably adds up to more than 0.5, I suspect.

2 Of course, it's quite unlikely that they use the entire back side of the roster on rookies. They have no pick. And they will want to have as much playable veteran talent as possible, chasing a title. So let's say that 4.5 of those last 5.5 slots, in our 'cheapest way possible,' will go to veterans who will play on a minimum salary deal. Those veterans cost just a hair under $2M each. Now the cap total is at about 165.7M.  (Or, with a DB s-w, it's about 155.1M.)

4 However, the apron is now in play, and some adjustments start getting in the way. For the HARD CAP limit, all incentives count as if they are met, but so far there are none. And the rookie FA counts at 2M unless he is their draft pick. Assuming Kyrie doesn't get incentives, the APRON total is now 166.6M. (Or, with a DB s-w, it's about 156M.)


If you pencil in a DB s-w, 9.5M for Powell, 7M for a TxMLE guy, and 4.5 veteran minimums, you're at about 169M, so in theory you might can cobble together an under-apron team if you had to. But if you either keep Wood, or s-n-t him and get a salary back, you've flown past the line.

Thanks.  This level of detail is instructive.  I maintain the $1.1mm holds on my spreadsheet up to 12 slots for cap and tax purposes.  I may need to consider adding a column that carries vet mins out to 14.5 slots to track the hard cap as well.  

The conclusions of our posts are similar.  

It would take something pretty seismic to bring in a S&T guy like Grant.  If we are planning a roster that includes keeping Irving, might as well take that off the table.  When shopping free agents, the TP-MLE at $7mm is probably the number.  I don't think you are going to find a starter for that money.

If we are going to add another starter, it will need to be a trade for a non-FA and then back-fill the position with the exception.  I tend to agree that only one of Powell/Wood is still here next season.  So, as you mention, the other could be signed and traded.  If the trade target is a big, then that doesn't have to be back-filled as you'd still have one of DP/CW still here along with McGee and Maxi.  Bertans is also superfluous and wouldn't need to be back-filled.  If you trade THJ and the returning player is not a wing, you are probably a wing short and would need to use the exception to get some help there.

If I were betting right now, my guess would be a Wood S&T (probably not guaranteed for all 3 years) plus Bertans (essentially expiring this summer) and picks for someone 25% either side of $30mm.  Or, just Bertans and someone 25% either side of $17mm.  Some of the names in that ballpark are Ayton, Turner, Draymond, Siakam, KAT, Capela, Nurkic, Robinson and Valanciunas.  Most of those guys play for contenders, so it is hard to make sense of a pick based compensation.  It doesn't change things much if THJ is substituted as outgoing other than taking the outgoing S&T off the table if he replaces Wood.  Having Wood in the outgoing, as you pointed out yesterday, will eliminate the higher dollar teams that are already over the hard cap.

Bigs:  New Big, Powell, McGee

Wings:  Green, Maxi, THJ, Reggie

BH's:  Luka, Irving, Hardy

Or, move Maxi to the Big category and THJ outgoing for a Bigger Wing.