Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[DanSchwartzgan]

Lively is the main reason I’d be scared of such a deal. Right now, everyone is making room for the 1-5 pick and roll and Lively is feasting. I’m just not sure his surprising rookie year will continue on this course if he suddenly has to learn how to play off of a featured big. And that’s why you trade for someone like Collins, to feature him. It would be Christian Wood all over again, in some ways.

So, the argument is Collins is too good?  See, this is why we can't have nice things.

I just don't think of him as "featured", though his diverse skill set would be nice to have when one of the star guards is sitting.  Half of Collins' 3's come from the corner (to about 1/4 of THJ's) and he shoots a better percent from there than THJ.  So, I don't think he pinches Lively at all (and I know he rebounds and defends better than THJ).

You and I never agreed on the CWood as C or PF deal.  I think the correct answer is probably neither.  It didn't really work here trying Wood as the solo-big.  LAL played him (when they were playing him) almost exclusively with either AD or Hayes.  Now he's getting DNP's when Rui and Vandy are healthy.  Collins is very clearly a PF who has shooting and rolling skills.  You can play him next to Lively or Powell or Maxi and be just fine.  I would not be a fan of Collins at the 5 from a defensive standpoint...which may be a place where our visions of this diverge.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Mavs get: Collins

Magic get: THJ

Jazz get: Gary Harris, Holmes, Hardy, two Magic 2nds, Mavs protected pick swap

Spend some assets while still keeping enough to go big game hunting down the road

This makes sense to me.  Main reason for responding is to say there is value in sending Holmes and THJ out in the same deal as it puts us further under the tax next year.  We have to think about either replacing DJJ or how we keep him if the TP-MLE doesn't get it done.  So, there is value to reducing 23/25 salary by moving on from Holmes in the same deal.  

It must also be pointed out that we lose our ability to send out expiring contracts this summer with the inclusion of Holmes.

We also have to be careful from Utah's perspective.  They will probably use cap room this summer to renegotiate and extend Markkanen (like Sac. did with Sabonis).  So, we have to be mindful of the salary we ask them to take on.  You deal doesn't compromise that at all, but just wanted to point out one of their probable goals.

I like the pick swap idea.  Dallas could actually do two pick swaps or a swap in years besides just 2027.  Utah has a ton of firsts in 25 and a ton in 27.  We could do Dallas for Utah's worst in both years or either year (the 2025 would be backed up by the 2025 second in case we don't convey the first to NY this season).

[IamDougieFresh]

Some Thoughts on the Roster and Future


Star Players

Luka Doncic - I believe the only player on the planet better than Luka is Jokic. I also believe that if he improves his defensive effort and gets serious about his fitness, he can challenge Jokic for the #1 spot.

Kyrie Irving - I get that a lot of you are mad that he didn't vax and thinks the Earth is flat. I think off-court matters will be just fine. On the court, you can expect 3-5 years of absolutely electric play, followed by a productive extended career if he so chooses.

Jaden Hardy - Star player??? Yes. It's easy to see that Hardy has immense talent. In my opinion, it's only a matter of time until he becomes a 20 ppg scorer. If he develops as a playmaker the sky is the limit. He will have to be the 6th man for defensive reasons.

Olivier-Maxence Prosper - First I told you that our sophomore guard will be a star, and now I'm telling you that OMax will be too. I proclaimed that they must find a way to get him in the pre-draft thread. Normally, I reserve the "star" title for players who can get buckets. Players like Dennis Rodman and Draymond Green are also stars, and I predict that OMax's impact will be on that level for us one day.

Role Players

Josh Green - I am very hopeful that Josh Green will take that next step this year. All he really has to do is shoot it when he is open and keep playing hard. We really need him to use that athleticism to be a good point of attack defender. I think a lot of our success this season is going to depend on that alone.

Grant Williams - I'm very happy that we were able to get him. He's a great defender who knocks down his open 3s. He got shit for his incident with Jimmy in the playoffs, but Tatum and Brown are the dudes who choked, if you ask me.

Maxi Kleber - Despite a tough couple of years filled with injury and illness, Maxi remains an amazing defender and a small ball 5 with 3 point range.

Dereck Lively II - I think he is going to be a good rim protector and lob threat. That's all we really need. If he becomes an elite rim protector, the Mavs become scary. The 3-point shot... haha, we'll see.

Dante Exum - I really do think this is an underrated pickup. He learned how to shoot, and he is a good defender. I saw a stat that said he was like a 90%+ percentile PnR ballhandler in Europe. He will be a great backup guard.


I really believe the players listed above are enough to win the championship in a few years if everything goes right. How some of these players will turn out remains to be seen, but they are going to have options to improve the roster as well. I'd say things are looking pretty solid. A massive turnaround from how I felt before the draft.


Just Stopping By

Richaun Holmes - I actually think he is going to be really good for us, but he is just a stopgap.

Seth Curry - He's a shooter who is great to have on your bench. I don't want him to take many minutes from Green and Hardy.

Gotta Go

Tim Hardaway Jr. - I don't hate him like some here do, but he has to go so that Green and Hardy can grow into their roles.

JaVale McGee - Get rid of him and convey the last Porzingis pick, and all this shit will finally be in the past.


Long story short, I'm really excited, and I think things are going to be great in the not-too-distant future.

My updated views on the future after a quarter season worth of data



Mr. Jason Midd

Make no mistake, this guy will not lead us to a championship. His lineups and rotations really piss me off. That being said, this is about the future. I would say aside for Lively, his minute allocation for the development of players has been on the very low end of acceptable. Development can cost wins and I recognize that you have to try and find balance.


Star Players

Luka Doncic - Still work to do on transition defense and complaining to refs, but there has been a little improvement.

Kyrie Irving - His best play is yet to come. My views have not changed.

Dereck Lively II - Lively has elevated himself big time. The center we have needed. Still a ton of work to do, especially when it comes to defending out to the 3 point line. Probably coaching related.

Jaden Hardy - As predicted, THJ is in the way. My thoughts have not changed. You watched the game last night. Hardy is DYNAMIC. The 6th man role should be his. If he can get a stretch of playing consistent minutes he will begin to blossom.

Olivier-Maxence Prosper - Views haven't changed. If I see Morris play another minute you will see me on the news. Get the kid some small consistent minutes and let him grow.


Role Players

Dante Exum - He's really good lol. Better than even I expected.

Derrick Jones Jr. - Looks like I made my last post before the DJJ signing. I'll keep it real. I didn't think he was going to be good. Apparently he learned how to be a serviceable shooter. Must retain him.

Josh Green - Off to a weird start after getting his extension. My views haven't changed. That being said, Exum is clearly the better player right now. I can see him being part of "The Big Trade" in the offseason with the emergence of Exum and DJJ.

Grant Williams - Buy low. He can really shoot it. He will be just fine.

Maxi Kleber - This is my Dwight Powell I guess. I'm still hopeful about his usefulness if he can get a healthy stretch. It feels like it's been forever since he was a great defender with range out to 3. I'm not ready to say it's over quite yet.

Just Stopping By

Richaun Holmes - Give the dude an actual shot as the backup Center. Will almost certainly be a part of "The Big Trade".

Seth Curry - Good depth shooter. Stop giving him any minutes from the young guns.

Markieff Morris - Not much to say. Solid 11-15th man. Maybe we can launch him into Jokic's spine.

Gotta Go

Tim Hardaway Jr. - Sucks that we have to keep this dude around to make "The Big Trade" in the offseason. He's been playing well, but we all know that could end at any time. Like I said, he's just in the way of bigger and better things.

[mvossman]

This is more for Killer/Omahen, but I'm not buying the 'it didn't work in Atlanta' argument.  Nothing works in Atlanta.  Trae Young makes players worse while everyone who comes here gets a Luka-bump.  This board tends to poo-poo everyone we trade for or sign until we see them play here.  Then the tune changes.  I don't think Capela is the vertical threat or paint deterrent that Lively is (or will be) and I don't think Atlanta has defenders who compare well to the secondary guys mentioned above.  In a world where the reasonably available options for this spot have huge holes in their games, Collins fits well with a diverse skill set and with THJ gone there are more than enough shots to satisfy Collins with some left over for others.

Does everyone get a Luka bump?  Delon Wright and JRich did not get bumps.  Grant Williams looks about the same as what he was.  The area where Luka would most likely give Collins a bump is in the P&R, but that is hard to do with Lively on the court (same issue with Capela).  He takes less than 4 3s a game.  His is not a plus defender, his true shooting has gone down 4 years in a row, and he is making 26 mil for another 2 years after this one.  If he doesn't get a big Luka bump he is an albatross contract.  

If we get a chance to land that 2 way wing this coming offseason, would the seller prefer the expiring contracts of Timmy and Holmes, or do they want two years of Collins at 26 mil?  Seems like trading for him is a huge gamble without that great of a payoff.

[KillerLeft]

I just don't think of him as "featured", though his diverse skill set would be nice to have when one of the star guards is sitting.  Half of Collins' 3's come from the corner (to about 1/4 of THJ's) and he shoots a better percent from there than THJ.  So, I don't think he pinches Lively at all (and I know he rebounds and defends better than THJ).

You and I never agreed on the CWood as C or PF deal.  I think the correct answer is probably neither.  It didn't really work here trying Wood as the solo-big.  LAL played him (when they were playing him) almost exclusively with either AD or Hayes.  Now he's getting DNP's when Rui and Vandy are healthy.  Collins is very clearly a PF who has shooting and rolling skills.  You can play him next to Lively or Powell or Maxi and be just fine.  I would not be a fan of Collins at the 5 from a defensive standpoint...which may be a place where our visions of this diverge.

So much I disagree with here. I'll try to be brief. 

I brought up Wood, not for any positional argument, but just to illustrate what happens when you introduce a player who expects to be involved in the offense (hence "featured"). Make no mistake, featured is the correct word for the big involved in the action on this team, and I could have just as easily pointed to Porzingis. During that Clippers series that apparently traumatized him here, he was asked to stand in the corner while they used other bigs in the actions instead. It was the right call then, and as we know, his reaction to it wasn't great. 

Collins, like Porzingis, would not want to come here and stand in the corner. He'll want to set picks and roll, or worse - he'll want the ball at the elbow or some other ridiculous thing. Therefore, I think the emboldened sentence is incorrect and borderline irresponsible. He would be a good fit with Kleber, yes. Those other two? Nooooooo, sir. I do not agree. This isn't the first time I've said this, but the REASON Lively is dominating is because the offense is built around things he already knows how to do well. That all stops immediately once you ask him to play off of another big, which is 100% what a team trading for Collins would be doing. You don't trade for Collins unless you want an offensively minded big (which is why I brought up Wood, not to make comparisons of their talent levels). 

I also wouldn't love Collins at the 5. I agree he's a 4, but there's a TYPE of 5 who'd fit next to him, and Lively ain't it (yet). I think later in Lively's career, it might behoove him to start shooting more 3's and playing basically like Brooke Lopez, but he's not there yet, and frankly, I doubt he knows where to even start at being effect that way, even taking shooting out of the equation. We as fans can SEE from our elevated vantage point how the spacing works and how the plays develop. For the players, I imagine it's more like memorizing steps, identifying specific keys. They can't see the whole floor at once like we can. It's a BIG ASK for Lively to start playing completely differently, and I'm skeptical that it's worth trading for Collins if you're not going to let him be Collins, or that he'd even be interested. 

I honestly believe Williams is a better fit with Lively (this year's version, at least) than Collins. I truly believe that.

[mvossman]

As pertains to Hardaway.  THJ currently has a D-EPM of FOUR.  Yes, 4.  No number in front of it and no number behind it.  Just a 4 (Hell, Kyle Kuzma is a 7 and he SUCKS at D).  THJ's D-Rating is a career worst and team worst 120.  His DBPM is also a career worst and team worst -3.1.  So, it isn't like THJ is some stud we can't live without.  When Dallas has a D-Rating in a game better than 120 (when we are better for a game than the worst D in the league), we are 11-0.  So, I disagree with Omahen that small incremental improvements aren't valuable.  I think a few more boards with some more size and some D make us kind of scary in a wide open west.  If that can be accomplished without giving up 3 point shooting, all the better.

I don't have any super strong feelings about John Collins (other than I believe Ainge will flip him).  But, he's shooting very similarly to THJ from 3 at .383 (vs 384 for THJ) and .442 from the corner (THJ is .366 from the corner).  Collins is creating 40% of his made 2's this season and is .714 at the rim.  THJ creates 35% of his 2's and is .506 at the rim.  I don't agree the offense would suffer from a THJ/Collins swap.

But, what about Collins vs. the other choices at the four.  We have to bear in mind that there is reporting out there that we had interest in Naz Reid this summer.  We don't know if that was in addition to or instead of GWill, but Dallas was pursuing non-stars for this position (and got one in GWill).  It isn't like Naz Reid is some fantastic rebounder.  He doesn't shoot 3's as well as Collins and he's never been a plus player in On/Off.  Yet, he was more universally endorsed than almost all of the names above.

I'll exempt Siakam and Markkanen as they aren't attainable in an in-season deal.  But, when you compare Collins to PJ, Olynyk, Grant, Isaac, Kuzma and PWill, which of them has a better combination of rebounding and 3 point shooting and block rate?  I kind of like the theoretical skill set of a mobile four who hits 3's, but can also post up and drive some and can help in the paint a little when Lively is drawn to the perimeter.  Theoretically, that might be Maxi, except Maxi is a statue on offense and is rarely available.  The other thing I kind of like is Utah may be more interested in draft capital than our young players.  I like the depth chart that remains if it is just THJ and draft capital.  In fact, this is what I mean when I talk about pushing GWill to the bench:

Lively/(Maxi/Powell/Holmes)
Collins/GWill
DJJ/OMax (GWill/Green in the playoffs)
Kyrie/Green
Luka/Exum

Sorry, I think that fixes some things.  It isn't perfect (and we will never be satisfied that we have every spot adequately covered), but I wouldn't dismiss it either.  Are we sure we are getting better than this by waiting until this summer?
[/quote]

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

This is a late response.  I had it in another window and never sent it.

I have a bit of a problem slamming Timmy on defense and using this seasons DEPM to do it.  When he spending significant minutes at the PF spot with Powell at center, its not surprising the numbers are terrible.  That is not a Timmy problem.  Its a roster construction problem that both Timmy and Powell are getting hammered for.  In the last two seasons (a much bigger sample) his DEPM was over 50%.  He is not a particularly good defender, but is also not nearly as bad as that small sample metric is making it out to be.

Are we sure Collins would be replacing Williams in the starting lineup?  Grant is a better defender and a better floor spacer.  We already have Lively for vertical spacing and Luka and Kyrie for offense in general.  Our biggest weakness is size and rebounding in the second unit.  Collins would also be more useful playing with Maxi or small ball big than another P&R big.  There is a real argument that his fit would be better with the second unit.

If our next offseason does not end up with a better roster than that, I will consider it a failure.

[KillerLeft]

Are we sure Collins would be replacing Williams in the starting lineup?  Grant is a better defender and a better floor spacer.  We already have Lively for vertical spacing and Luka and Kyrie for offense in general.  Our biggest weakness is size and rebounding in the second unit.  Collins would also be more useful playing with Maxi or small ball big than another P&R big.  There is a real argument that his fit would be better with the second unit.

Now, THIS I could get behind, only...I just have this feeling Collins isn't ready to see himself as a backup yet.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I'm surprised there's so many folks who are anti Collins from a bball standpoint. I would think that the last few games would show the benefits of having more size on the floor. Right now the concern is that the size we're throwing out there with Exum/OMax and even DJJ may not be steady enough shooters when the games tighten up later in the season and Collins mitigates some of those issues. The defense would certainly be something to watch out for with him at the 4 but I gotta say he played great defense both at the 4 and the 5 during the Hawks conference finals run so he certainly seems to have it in him when it matters.

Having said that, the concerns around the contract and what that would do to our flexibility moving forward are big enough concerns for me to totally be out on him.

[KillerLeft]

I'm surprised there's so many folks who are anti Collins from a bball standpoint.  I would think that the last few games would show the benefits of having more size on the floor.  Right now the concern is that the size we're throwing out there with Exum/OMax and even DJJ may not be steady enough shooters when the games tighten up later in the season and Collins mitigates some of those issues.  The defense would certainly be something to watch out for with him at the 4 but I gotta say he played great defense both at the 4 and the 5 during the Hawks conference finals run so he certainly seems to have it in him when it matters.

Having said that, the concerns around the contract and what that would do to our flexibility moving forward are big enough concerns for me to totally be out on him.

I'm not sure "size" is the thing that comes to mind when discussing Collins. More stout than DJJ, for sure, but slighter than Williams, and generally in the same size bracket as those guys. I'd say he's a smaller option than Kleber, O-Max or Morris, the other current options at the 4.

[DallasMaverick]

... I recognize that you have to try and find balance.

Sorry, friend.  You're on the wrong message board.

This place is NOT about balance.  It's about polarized, knee-jerk, black-and-white love and hatred.

Get your milquetoasty, mealy-mouthed lukewarmness outta here!!

[DallasMaverick]

Now, THIS I could get behind, only...I just have this feeling Collins isn't ready to see himself as a backup yet.

...and $26mil is a kinda high-priced backup.

[mvossman]

I'm not sure "size" is the thing that comes to mind when discussing Collins. More stout than DJJ, for sure, but slighter than Williams, and generally in the same size bracket as those guys. I'd say he's a smaller option than Kleber, O-Max or Morris, the other current options at the 4.

I think he is closer to the second group than the first one.  Definitely the best rebounder of either group, and I don't think he is any more likely to get over powered than any of the others.

[KillerLeft]

I think he is closer to the second group than the first one.  Definitely the best rebounder of either group, and I don't think he is any more likely to get over powered than any of the others.

Interesting. I just disagree. I think he's skinny and moves like a 6'8" guy. That's sort of the whole draw of him, in my view. Ironically, the one thing I actually like about him is that he's quicker than Grant Williams (though it's not useful, as he only applies it to his offensive efforts). Never in a zillion years would it have occurred to me to view adding Collins (in place of Williams, Kleber or O-Max in the rotation) as a move to add SIZE. Speed, quickness and skill? Sure.

[Chicagojk]

I think Atlanta may be the most aggressive trade partner heading to the trade deadline. Is Murray a FA this offseason? I wasn't aware of that. He appears to be a guy Morey targets.

Atl is 9-13. Maybe they get things turned around but they were expecting more. Right now they appear stuck in mid tier with not a lot of options. They lack the talent to be a contender while also not being one of the next upcoming young teams.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Interesting. I just disagree. I think he's skinny and moves like a 6'8" guy. That's sort of the whole draw of him, in my view. Ironically, the one thing I actually like about him is that he's quicker than Grant Williams. Never in a zillion years would it have occurred to me to view adding Collins (in place of Williams, Kleber or O-Max in the rotation) as a move to add SIZE. Speed, quickness and skill? Sure.

This is very surprising to me given we're talking about someone who averages 4.5 more rebounds a game than Grant Williams.  He typically plays with a good amount of physicality.  Perhaps not as much as Grant Williams but a huge part of the Hawks getting to the conference finals that year had to do with Collins being able to hold his own with Joel Embiid when the moments called for it.

[KillerLeft]

This is very surprising to me given we're talking about someone who averages 4.5 more rebounds a game than Grant Williams.  He typically plays with a good amount of physicality.  Perhaps not as much as Grant Williams but a huge part of the Hawks getting to the conference finals that year had to do with Collins being able to hold his own with Joel Embiid when the moments called for it.

I don't really care about rebounds, especially individual rebounding, which I've found to be unreliable and sometimes even detrimental to winning. 

I'm just telling you my take. Dude seems like he plays small to me. Always has. I actually think DJJ is a good comp in terms of his roll game, and I'm not even interested in his offensive creation. Defensively, he'd be worse than ANY of DJJ, Williams, Kleber, O-Max and even Morris. He represents a move towards a LOWER defensive ranking in my mind. 

I think before Lively came, there was reason to wonder about this move, but the Mavs HAVE a screener now. DEFENSE and SHOOTING is what's needed from the rest of the front court. Period.

[Jason Terry]

Collins wouldn’t be an “all in” move. If we got him and signed a Biyambo/Drummond backup we should feel good about contention status for this year and next. I think Luka and Kai would as well. Not sure we need another star.

Let’s say it doesn’t work out. This year we fall short. Next year the same. At that point we would have expiring Collins and our picks. We could totally go for a big fish with that. Just in time for Luka to sign his extension

On the other hand, if we go all in for a top name this summer and it doesn’t work….we could have no assets and be coming up on a Luka extension with reasons for him to leave.

I don’t think Collins or a player like him is a half measure. I just don’t think we’re far away from contention and not sure the “3 star” model is best, especially with Luka

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I don't really care about rebounds, especially individual rebounding, which I've found to be unreliable and sometimes even detrimental to winning. 

:Isaac Harris has entered the chat:

I'm only kidding, I understand where you're coming from.  I guess where I stand from a basketball standpoint is that you wouldn't lose as much defense as you think swapping Grant with Collins, wouldn't lose any shooting/spacing and gain a lot of rebounding/rim protection which would be beneficial.  I will continue to say he is objectively big compared to the players on our roster (he's listed bigger than OMax) but we just see the player differently and that's fine. 

Again though, his contract is just not something I see worth dealing with for what we would get on the court from him.

[ItsGoTime]

Eye test tells me Collins is closer to Morris/Williams size than OMax/DJJ size. Looking them all up, other than Morris (6’9” 245) and DJJ (6’5” 210) being the size outliers OMax (considering this is just the beginning for him and his weight will increase as he ages, but he is 21), GWill and Collins seem to be right in the middle. Was surprised to see GWill at 236 lbs.

As far as Collins here? I think he upgrades this team in a pretty big way if the outgoing is THJ and Holmes. Yes, I think THJ is addition by subtraction, but as far as talent upgrades? Collins is that. I will say, I’m not sure he has had enough time away from Atl yet to be humbled enough to get the featured thoughts out of his head. On the other hand, I would hope he sees something on this team to sacrifice for the greater good similar to what we heard from KP in his interview.

Get him or not, I have mixed feelings either way and would hope for the best if we were to pull the trigger.

[Mike lorenzo]

la tendencia es crecer, por cierto publiqué un intercambio de Collins a Mavs en Real GM... para medir su valor... Por no decir nada... pero los fanáticos del Jazz estaban bien con Maxi/Holmes/Hardy+2SRP para Collins/Fontecchio. Veo a Collins como una versión mejorada de Wood... sin sus lagunas defensivas, problemas de actitud y más fuerte.