Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[mvossman]

I think the decline question is right up there with will Luka come to camp in shape? line of thinking. Even if Luka comes in out of shape, he’s still going to be great. Even if we get a declined Capela, he’ll still be the absolute best option at starting C for this team and it’s not particularly close. So no, I don’t think there is much evidence for the opposite conclusion.

Giving it a year could stunt our young addition’s playoff growth, which is what Luka and Kyrie (and the rest of the team for that matter) care about. Don’t punt on the play that very well could get us into field goal range to win the game when your team has been on a roll.

Edit: Please explain to me how you came to the conclusion that we will have only 1 pick to trade next year? If we trade 27, next year we will have 2 picks, not 1 (with Capela, what do we NEED that 3 picks will get us that 2 picks won’t?). Getting Capela starts the contention window now and doesn’t interrupt that long term window, it’s all upside.

The evidence for the opposite conclusion is less about Capela potential decline and more about the many what ifs adding up to a very high unlikelihood this team will be able to contend next year, with or without Capela and regardless of whether he is on the decline.

If we protect that pick at all (using a 28 second) then 29 is off the table as well.  Sending out an unprotected first for Capela is a significant overpay in my estimation.

The bottom line is you and I disagree on how close this team is to contention this coming season and how much Capela would impact that.  I would not mind getting Capela, but I don't want to overpay or too negatively impact our future options to do it.

[omahen]

The evidence for the opposite conclusion is less about Capela potential decline and more about the many what ifs adding up to a very high unlikelihood this team will be able to contend next year, with or without Capela and regardless of whether he is on the decline.

If we protect that pick at all (using a 28 second) then 29 is off the table as well.  Sending out an unprotected first for Capela is a significant overpay in my estimation.

The bottom line is you and I disagree on how close this team is to contention this coming season and how much Capela would impact that.  I would not mind getting Capela, but I don't want to overpay or too negatively impact our future options to do it.

29 already went for Irving. Trading 27 doesn't change the picks we can trade next summer in any way, other than of course 27 itself. They can trade 24 or 25 and 31 next summer.

[omahen]

We are basically just circling this same Capela discussion on and on, repeating same things. Great indication that nothing is going on

I agree Capela is not worth full unprotected 27, but I would pull the trigger if something else comes back. I don't see much point in saving that pick as we likely shouldn't be after players that cost 3 picks anyway, due to CBA limitations. I think Capela will not lose much value in a season and a half where Mavs could trade him if Lively is ready. Capela alone probably doesn't make us a contender, but he sure brings us closer, if other things work out. I am very affraid about this season if Mavs think Powell is the best center they have. We have tons of materials to know he is not a starting level center.

Lets not forget the "famous" Stein quote. Mavs have not done enough and they know it.

But, I think there is only one thing to "look forward to" - how will they finish the McGee story. Will they again pay assets to try to erase their mistake or will they be more patient, waiting for a trade where his contract would be useful.

[omahen]

Since there is nothing going on. If we have THJ, Holmes and McGee contracts available for trade in any combination. 2027 added as an asset. Which player(s) would you target with these assets? You can also receive draft assets back

[Jym]

We are basically just circling this same Capela discussion on and on, repeating same things. Great indication that nothing is going on

I agree Capela is not worth full unprotected 27, but I would pull the trigger if something else comes back. I don't see much point in saving that pick as we likely shouldn't be after players that cost 3 picks anyway, due to CBA limitations. I think Capela will not lose much value in a season and a half where Mavs could trade him if Lively is ready. Capela alone probably doesn't make us a contender, but he sure brings us closer, if other things work out. I am very affraid about this season if Mavs think Powell is the best center they have. We have tons of materials to know he is not a starting level center.

Lets not forget the "famous" Stein quote. Mavs have not done enough and they know it.

But, I think there is only one thing to "look forward to" - how will they finish the McGee story. Will they again pay assets to try to erase their mistake or will they be more patient, waiting for a trade where his contract would be useful.

Yeah if anyone is willing to sit out and make nearly $6 million for nothing, I think it would be McGee. I'd rather just keep his contract and try to workout something next summer than burn assets now

[mvossman]

We are basically just circling this same Capela discussion on and on, repeating same things. Great indication that nothing is going on

I agree Capela is not worth full unprotected 27, but I would pull the trigger if something else comes back. I don't see much point in saving that pick as we likely shouldn't be after players that cost 3 picks anyway, due to CBA limitations. I think Capela will not lose much value in a season and a half where Mavs could trade him if Lively is ready. Capela alone probably doesn't make us a contender, but he sure brings us closer, if other things work out. I am very affraid about this season if Mavs think Powell is the best center they have. We have tons of materials to know he is not a starting level center.

Lets not forget the "famous" Stein quote. Mavs have not done enough and they know it.

But, I think there is only one thing to "look forward to" - how will they finish the McGee story. Will they again pay assets to try to erase their mistake or will they be more patient, waiting for a trade where his contract would be useful.

Agree with most of this.  I desperately hope that Holmes has enough to handle the starting role.  I'm also intrigued by heavy minutes of small ball (although that will make a bad rebounding team even worse).  

As for saving the pick, there is nothing that says it needs to be put in a package with the other two picks.  We have years to decide what to do with that pick.  We may end up wanting to use it (likely as part of a package) to replace Kyrie when the time comes. 

As for McGee, I think at this point they are either going to hold onto him or if they think he is a locker room issue, waive him.

[omahen]

Agree with most of this.  I desperately hope that Holmes has enough to handle the starting role.  I'm also intrigued by heavy minutes of small ball (although that will make a bad rebounding team even worse).  

As for saving the pick, there is nothing that says it needs to be put in a package with the other two picks.  We have years to decide what to do with that pick.  We may end up wanting to use it (likely as part of a package) to replace Kyrie when the time comes. 

As for McGee, I think at this point they are either going to hold onto him or if they think he is a locker room issue, waive him.

Totally agree on McGee. I doubt they will be paying someone to take his contract. After that, it is what you said.

As for 2027, circling all the teams, I just can't find anything that seems realistic for me. Other than Capela, really. I would love it if we could get AJ Griffin or Johnson back for the pick. But I am affraid Atlanta is more interested in young guys than picks. I would rather give up 2027 than Green in a deal, since trading Green just opens new hole. 

Would OKC consider trading Dort (I would still want a bit back, I don't think he is worth full 2027)? It wouldn't solve our center situation, but it never hurts to have good wings. Although, this brought me to an idea:

OKC: THJ, 2027 pick (could use some more shooting in their line-up)
Atl: Green, Holmes (young player and back-up center - I think Holmes makes more sense than McGee because of contract), asset from OKC
Dal: Dort, Capela

Neither Dort nor Capela are perfect, but they are better than what Mavs have at the moment. I am not really sure Green has it in him to become full time credible starter. Would love to, but it has been three years and still huge question marks. Dort is a better defender and not affraid to shoot it or drive to the basket. Could his efficiency improve in Dallas?

[mvossman]

Totally agree on McGee. I doubt they will be paying someone to take his contract. After that, it is what you said.

As for 2027, circling all the teams, I just can't find anything that seems realistic for me. Other than Capela, really. I would love it if we could get AJ Griffin or Johnson back for the pick. But I am affraid Atlanta is more interested in young guys than picks. I would rather give up 2027 than Green in a deal, since trading Green just opens new hole. 

Would OKC consider trading Dort (I would still want a bit back, I don't think he is worth full 2027)? It wouldn't solve our center situation, but it never hurts to have good wings. Although, this brought me to an idea:

OKC: THJ, 2027 pick (could use some more shooting in their line-up)
Atl: Green, Holmes (young player and back-up center - I think Holmes makes more sense than McGee because of contract), asset from OKC
Dal: Dort, Capela

Neither Dort nor Capela are perfect, but they are better than what Mavs have at the moment. I am not really sure Green has it in him to become full time credible starter. Would love to, but it has been three years and still huge question marks. Dort is a better defender and not affraid to shoot it or drive to the basket. Could his efficiency improve in Dallas?

I guess I am higher on Green than you are.  I think he needs to be a little more aggressive on offense, but I don't see "huge question marks".  Dort is definitely more aggressive at the expense of being much less efficient.  I'm not sure he is that much better a player than Green.  That being said, I could live with this if they pulled that trigger.

[ItsGoTime]

If we protect that pick at all (using a 28 second) then 29 is off the table as well.  Sending out an unprotected first for Capela is a significant overpay in my estimation.

Huh? You just said protect using the 28 second, how is 29 off the table? Also, in that scenario you would have the 27 pick to trade at the draft. You’re confusing me.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

I guess I am higher on Green than you are.  I think he needs to be a little more aggressive on offense, but I don't see "huge question marks".  Dort is definitely more aggressive at the expense of being much less efficient.  I'm not sure he is that much better a player than Green.  That being said, I could live with this if they pulled that trigger.

I'm with Omahen on this. I keep hearing all this Green hype, but I don't see it. Dort is the better player at this point, even on D.  He's improved his 3 pt shot. No more leaving him open. Green has the chops to be a very good 3&D guy. But this is Green's make-or-break year for me. He must show some aggression on offense and quit deferring all the time. That would make the team so much better when they load up on Kyrie and Luka.

[Jym]

I'm with Omahen on this. I keep hearing all this Green hype, but I don't see it. Dort is the better player at this point, even on D.  He's improved his 3 pt shot. No more leaving him open. Green has the chops to be a very good 3&D guy. But this is Green's make-or-break year for me. He must show some aggression on offense and quit deferring all the time. That would make the team so much better when they load up on Kyrie and Luka.

Ehh the argument for Dort would have to be defense which I admit is a level or 2 above Green
But I don't love Dort's shot. 39% overall and 33% from 3 last year which is right in line with his numbers for his first 4 years

[RGP1981]

Is there a way for the Mavericks to be the 3rd team in a James Harden trade to LAC? It would be nice for the Mavs FO to look for ways to get in on that since LAC and the 76ers have a few players who would fit good alongside Luka (or alongside Luka and Kyrie), such as... Norman Powell, De'Anthony Melton and Terance Mann.

[mvossman]

Huh? You just said protect using the 28 second, how is 29 off the table? Also, in that scenario you would have the 27 pick to trade at the draft. You’re confusing me.

I made that response without a lot of thought involved (apparently I need to avoid posting while hungover).  At this point I would like to direct you to the more lucid comments I made regarding this to Omahen.

[The Jom]

Is there a way for the Mavericks to be the 3rd team in a James Harden trade to LAC? It would be nice for the Mavs FO to look for ways to get in on that since LAC and the 76ers have a few players who would fit good alongside Luka (or alongside Luka and Kyrie), such as... Norman Powell, De'Anthony Melton and Terance Mann.

Yes! Time to move past the Capela chronicles and start thinking about the trades we can be pretty confident are coming. Harden, Dame, Ayton . . . Who am I forgetting? Lots of pieces will be moving.

[Chicagojk]

I'm with Omahen on this. I keep hearing all this Green hype, but I don't see it. Dort is the better player at this point, even on D.  He's improved his 3 pt shot. No more leaving him open. Green has the chops to be a very good 3&D guy. But this is Green's make-or-break year for me. He must show some aggression on offense and quit deferring all the time. That would make the team so much better when they load up on Kyrie and Luka.

This is a big year for Green.   He is a good rotational player but can he make the next jump to being a good starter or end of game player?  I hope they resign him regardless, but that answer may determine how strongly he is on our future plans.  I was a little surprised that if Thybulle was not matched that he would have been the starting 3 to begin the year, per some reports.    While Thybulle may fill the need of defender better, I think you can make a strong case Josh is the better player.

As far as fit goes, I think Green fits much better in a fast paced offense with a lot of passing and movement.   That is a little tricky when playing with Luka.  But I don’t think being in the DFS role is the best use of Green.   

Cato said something a few weeks ago that I agree with.  Green may be the best athlete on the team but he really is not an explosive get the ball and create off the dribble one on one.   For whatever reason, he lacks that burst.  Everything else about him screams athlete…except for that.    But with Luka, Kyrie and maybe eventually Jaden, he won’t be asked to do this much.  But he is a guy who needs touches.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

This is a big year for Green.   He is a good rotational player but can he make the next jump to being a good starter or end of game player?  I hope they resign him regardless, but that answer may determine how strongly he is on our future plans.  I was a little surprised that if Thybulle was not matched that he would have been the starting 3 to begin the year, per some reports.    While Thybulle may fill the need of defender better, I think you can make a strong case Josh is the better player.

As far as fit goes, I think Green fits much better in a fast paced offense with a lot of passing and movement.   That is a little tricky when playing with Luka.  But I don’t think being in the DFS role is the best use of Green.   

Cato said something a few weeks ago that I agree with.  Green may be the best athlete on the team but he really is not an explosive get the ball and create off the dribble one on one.   For whatever reason, he lacks that burst.  Everything else about him screams athlete…except for that.    But with Luka, Kyrie and maybe eventually Jaden, he won’t be asked to do this much.  But he is a guy who needs touches.

I agree with all this but the one caveat I would add is that I don't think creating off the dribble and athleticism are always correlated, I think beating people one on one is usually done through creativity and fundamentals or just over powering someone.  I mean our best one on one player is probably our least athletic.

I would also say we definitely saw Green's burst when he would just kind of catch and sprint by his man on the weak side but his problem was not being confident in his finishing ability at the rim (so many crazy baseline passes from that guy).  He also used his athleticism very well on the offensive glass.  Last year made me feel like he can be that Bruce Brown type of player, just do a little bit of everything on offense and keep the ball moving and everyone connected while also playing tough D.  To your last point, I don't think we need Josh Green to be an ISO player, we just need him to be Josh Green (which still kind of requires figuring out exactly what that means at the NBA level).

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

It isn’t that Josh lacks burst, it’s that he needs to learn to change speeds. Some of that is developing better handles. But it’s mostly the game slowing down for him, which it seemed to at times last year. I would like to see him receive more dribble handoffs  and act as the screener. Overall, I’d like to see more variation in our offense wherein it’s small screening for small. We were too predictable last season. Josh as screener can roll, pop out for 3, drive or pass. Think of Maxi who can’t dribble drive and doesn’t have much floor vision. Grant Williams isn’t very vertical. Josh has great court vision and hops. 

The other thing that players learn with time is defensive tendencies and how to find their “spots.” I’d like us to run set plays getting Green to his most efficient spots and have him work variations on that theme until he has a “go-to move.” This may take another couple years, as guys like Luka who can intuit how to manipulate the defender naturally are rare.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Ehh the argument for Dort would have to be defense which I admit is a level or 2 above Green
But I don't love Dort's shot. 39% overall and 33% from 3 last year which is right in line with his numbers for his first 4 years

That all may be true. But hypothetically, swap out Green for Dort and see if the Mavs are better defensively. Dort's 3 pt shot as well as Green's are a wash IMO. What was Green's 3 pt %  for last season?  Did he shoot over 40%?  It may be higher because he doesn't take a lot of them. Dort probably shoots a higher volume, because he's asked to take them whether he makes them or not. Green is a reluctant shooter. I'm not trashing Green. He has the chops to be very good. But that depends on him. This is his year to make the leap.

[DallasMaverick]

It isn’t that Josh lacks burst, it’s that he needs to learn to change speeds. Some of that is developing better handles. But it’s mostly the game slowing down for him, which it seemed to at times last year. I would like to see him receive more dribble handoffs  and act as the screener. Overall, I’d like to see more variation in our offense wherein it’s small screening for small. We were too predictable last season. Josh as screener can roll, pop out for 3, drive or pass. Think of Maxi who can’t dribble drive and doesn’t have much floor vision. Grant Williams isn’t very vertical. Josh has great court vision and hops. 

The other thing that players learn with time is defensive tendencies and how to find their “spots.” I’d like us to run set plays getting Green to his most efficient spots and have him work variations on that theme until he has a “go-to move.” This may take another couple years, as guys like Luka who can intuit how to manipulate the defender naturally are rare.

I love how he never forces a shot. But I’d like him to take a few more contested shots as he gains confidence that they’ll actually go in.

Seems like Lively has the same basic tendency.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

That all may be true. But hypothetically, swap out Green for Dort and see if the Mavs are better defensively. Dort's 3 pt shot as well as Green's are a wash IMO. What was Green's 3 pt %  for last season?  Did he shoot over 40%?  It may be higher because he doesn't take a lot of them. Dort probably shoots a higher volume, because he's asked to take them whether he makes them or not. Green is a reluctant shooter. I'm not trashing Green. He has the chops to be very good. But that depends on him. This is his year to make the leap.

Josh Green shot 40% on 2.8 attempts a game and Dort shot 33% at twice as many attempts (5.5).

While I would actually tend to think the trade proposal that started this conversation would be a good one for the Mavs because Dort can easily replace Green and you're getting Capela as well without giving up firsts, I would definitely prefer the Mavs really unleash Josh Green until the trade deadline to see what he looks like at higher volumes.  Someone needs to let him know his role is pretty set and he's not going to get yanked around for bad shooting nights or a mistake here and there.  Just always felt like he was still playing for minutes as opposed to just playing basketball last year despite seeing a lot of improvement in certain areas.