Trade & FA 2023-24: Paul George to Test Free Agency After No Contract Extension

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Sure, that’s preferable, but would I rather have THJ and Holmes or Ayton plus a low paid end of bencher for the same money? I honestly don’t think THJ and Holmes have anything to offer by way of contributing to a championship team, so that’s an easy choice for me. The only pause I really have is whether Ayton would be a progress stopper for Lively, and I can almost talk myself into the idea of playing them together for 10 minutes so they both get starter minutes.  If that mythical flex is available, that’s great, otherwise, a young, talented, and athletic big for just Holmes and THJ, count me in.

HUH?  He's less than half the price of Ayton.  Makes less than THJ.

????

[SleepingHero]

Valanciunas. Expiring and imho the best leader out o the bunch. Question is what does NO want?

Whatever New Orleans wants will undoubtedly be more expensive than what PHX can command for Ayton. 

And Ayton's production rivals Valanciunas pretty well.

[KillerLeft]

The Mavs were a Kevon Looney stopper away from going to the finals 2 years ago.

No, they weren’t. It wasn’t looney who killed them, it was they expert level ball movement and spacing that had the entire defense chasing their tails. Looney just happened to be the guy (credit him for being in the right spots, understanding the system, catching, finishing, etc) who got to finish those plays, standing by himself in the paint to catch pass #5…7..9…whatever, long after the Mavs’ defense was so confused they’d completely lost track of him.

If Dwight Powell had been in his shoes, people would think the Mavs need a “Dwight Powell stopper” ffs.

AYTON, his slow feet, low motor and (gonna say it) inability to think the game on that level would not have saved the Mavs in that series.

[Mavs2021]

Honestly the guy I want the most this free agency is PJ Washington. Maybe you can do

THJ to Orlando
Isaac + Bullock + Denver 1st 2025 (from Orlando) + Mavs 2027 unprotected 1st.

Maybe the new Hornets owner doesn´t want to pay big and prefers flexibility.

I´d at least try.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Is there any reason to believe that a 24 year old player is already declining and can never reach his peak level again? It´s a gamble NBA teams make all the time. That´s why I asked the questions below. Is it reasonable to assume that he can produce that level again on another team (new coach, system, teammates) or is his recent level all we can expect for the rest of his career?

I guarantee I can come up with more examples of centers on the continual decline at 24yo than centers who were declining at 24yo and turned it around...

How do you think Vegas would handicap that?  Clearly it'd be more that he'll continue to decline than pull out of the nosedive.  So you're wanting to gamble $104m on an unenthused, unmotivated, grossly overpaid curmudgeon?  I hope you don't live near an Indian reservation.

[KillerLeft]

Obviously wouldn´t give up any future assets but if all it takes is THJ, Bullock and McGee I would be tempted. Basically only leaves the last year of his contract as a big salary hit.

I mean, I get that part of it, relative to where his value was a few years back. I get that it seems like a huge bargain in a certain light. 

Honestly, though, I legit think THJ is a better, more actually useful player than Ayton. I’m just sooooo over high priced guys who are too slow or too dumb to BE ON THE FLOOR when things matter most.

[fifteenth]

I guarantee....

Nice user name!!!

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Whatever New Orleans wants will undoubtedly be more expensive than what PHX can command for Ayton. 

And Ayton's production rivals Valanciunas pretty well.

Ayton - $104m.
Valanciunas - $17m
...and you're worried about what assets it'll take to get the player?  That's precisely how we ended up here.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Honestly the guy I want the most this free agency is PJ Washington. Maybe you can do

THJ to Orlando
Isaac + Bullock + Denver 1st 2025 (from Orlando) + Mavs 2027 unprotected 1st.

Maybe the new Hornets owner doesn´t want to pay big and prefers flexibility.

I´d at least try.

PJ Washington would be the perfect remaining piece honestly.  Basically a healthier, younger and more potent offensive Maxi to round out the front court.

2 firsts certainly feels like a heft price although I did see they're prioritizing keeping him and bridges (for whatever reason).

[dirkfansince1998]

I guarantee I can come up with more examples of centers on the continual decline at 24yo than centers who were declining at 24yo and turned it around...

How do you think Vegas would handicap that?  Clearly it'd be more that he'll continue to decline than pull out of the nosedive.  So you're wanting to gamble $104m on an unenthused, unmotivated, grossly overpaid curmudgeon?  I hope you don't live near an Indian reservation.

More like 50-60m because salary is outgoing in the trade. Basically his last season in 25/26 and half of THJs salary in 24/25 if we can trust the proposed trade.
There is a chance that Ayton is who he is. A useful but overpaid big. Solid starter. Nothing more. That´s the floor. Making the gamble even less of a risk because no matter what happens the return isn´t zero. Even if things don´t work out and he never reaches his 20/21 level again he is more useful than THJ, Bullock or McGee.

As far as my personal opinion goes. I am not the biggest Ayton fan but from an asset management perspective I can see why the Mavs would be interested. Compared to the level and value that he used to have it is an all time buy low opportunity.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Man I kept thinking a Bruce Brown signing and Grant Williams S&T would have been the perfect way to round everything up but now I'm back stuck on figuring out how to get PJ Washington here.

[SleepingHero]

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2023/6/27/...-exception


This is a fantastic article

[cow]

I've been saying this all along.  Why would we not only help them get out of their predicament, but then trade places into said predicament?

I can see the outcome being framed as the same but what we are trading to get to that outcome is different.   Granted, Ayton isn't the quality of Durant or Beal, but our pu pu platter of outgoing assets isn't near the quality that Phoenix shipped out.

I don't like Ayton and don't particularly want him on the team, but if all it cost was THJ, Holmes and Reggie, I personally think Ayton is more valuable than that combined rotation.  

My guess is that the MBT/Phx discussion occurred before the draft and before we acquired Lively, which probably makes this entire discussion moot.

edit: I also hate THJ (the player) so I have my bias.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

More like 50-60m because salary is outgoing in the trade. Basically his last season in 25/26 and half of THJs salary in 24/25 if we can trust the proposed trade.
There is a chance that Ayton is who he is. A useful but overpaid big. Solid starter. Nothing more. That´s the floor. Making the gamble even less of a risk because no matter what happens the return isn´t zero. Even if things don´t work out and he never reaches his 20/21 level again he is more useful than THJ, Bullock or McGee.

Huh?  He's declining, not plateauing.  On his dejectory he'll be McGee in 3 years.  Did you see the playoff series this year?  He was benched for Landale.

[SleepingHero]

https://twitter.com/djl_137__/status/167...05783?s=20

dylan (@djl_137__)
“The amount of Max Strus buzz right now is ridiculous…Max Strus is getting the mid level exception…all those teams are scared that someone with cap room is gonna beat that offer.”

Lowe

[Smitty]

now I'm back stuck on figuring out how to get PJ Washington here.

He’s the only one I’m interested in tbh.

Bullock + ‘27. Hornets want vets and are going to resign Bridges.

https://www.si.com/nba/hornets/news/pick...washington

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

More like 50-60m because salary is outgoing in the trade. Basically his last season in 25/26 and half of THJs salary in 24/25 if we can trust the proposed trade.
There is a chance that Ayton is who he is. A useful but overpaid big. Solid starter. Nothing more. That´s the floor. Making the gamble even less of a risk because no matter what happens the return isn´t zero. Even if things don´t work out and he never reaches his 20/21 level again he is more useful than THJ, Bullock or McGee.

As far as my personal opinion goes. I am not the biggest Ayton fan but from an asset management perspective I can see why the Mavs would be interested. Compared to the level and value that he used to have it is an all time buy low opportunity.

Wow.  OK, you're subtracting THJ's salary when he'll no longer be on the roster????  You only do that with dead money contracts like Bertans.

Ayton is at best $20m player for next year.  If he continues to decline, that number drops significantly for years 2 and 3.  *If he stops declining, there is $40m of dead money in his 3 year contract.  Because of his decline, I don't think I'd be willing to take that risk at $60m/3yrs.

[Jmaciscool]

I can see the outcoming being framed as the same but what we are trading to get to that outcome is different.   Granted, Ayton isn't the quality of Durant or Beal, but our pu pu platter of outgoing assets isn't near the quality that Phoenix shipped out.

I don't like Ayton and don't particularly want him on the team, but if all it cost was THJ, Holmes and Reggie, I personally think Ayton is more valuable than that combined rotation.  

My guess is that the MBT/Phx discussion occurred before the draft and before we acquired Lively, which probably makes this entire discussion moot.

edit:  I'm also hate THJ (the player) so I have my bias.

This is where I'm landing too (for now).

I don't think it's moot though because if Holmes was included it would have been after the draft/Lively pick, right?

[cow]

This is where I'm landing too (for now).

I don't think it's moot though because if Holmes was included it would have been after the draft/Lively pick, right?

Good point but I think we are all making assumptions about what the Mavs pu pu platter was.

[dirkfansince1998]

Huh?  He's declining, not plateauing.  On his dejectory he'll be McGee in 3 years.  Did you see the playoff series this year?  He was benched for Landale.

Overreacting much? It´s not legit to look at his body of work or performance in his best run but it´s totally valid to predict his future based on one playoff series against the best player in the league. Playing on a dysfunctional team and fighting with the coach.
Still concerning because no matter what happens you cannot pull a Rondo. But I would asume that any team that considers trading for him knows more about the situation than we do. Personally I think that is more concerning than his level of play. After the last season the Mavs should stay away from anyone that could create locker room issues.