Rock and a Hard Place

[omahen]

Fournier + McGee + Ntilikina + 6M in cash (from Dallas) + 1st round pick (from New York) two 2nd round picks (from NY + Dallas) to Orlando
Bamba + Reddish to Dallas
Harris + Ross to New York

There is absolutely no way NY does that. 

Fournier is expiring next season and they are not becoming contender with Ross and Harris. With the new FO, NY is patiently waiting and lining up for a moment a star or more will want to go there. 

Also, Mavs get two young guys while "paying" one of worse contracts in the league. Also, Bamba and Reddish are 16 mil in salary, while McGee and FN are 7.5 mil. The trade is not even legal.

[ItsGoTime]

You want to extend Reddish for a value that would be preffered to him than his QO? After Atlanta got rid of him and he stuck to the bench in NY? Perhaps the best way would be that he takes his QO and you have a one year tryout and an expiring contract.

That $8M would be the only contract between DFS/Maxi and McGee, so that might not be a bad thing.

[Mavs2021]

You want to extend Reddish for a value that would be preffered to him than his QO? After Atlanta got rid of him and he stuck to the bench in NY? Perhaps the best way would be that he takes his QO and you have a one year tryout and an expiring contract.

I want a contract agreement in place, whatever that looks like. If Hachimura or Reddish think they are worth 12-15M a year then I make the decision on the spot: Yes or No.

I don´t trade for them, and then find out I value them at 5M and they want 15M. I don´t want any bad surprises.

Negotiate a deal and honour it from both sides, regardless of the next six months. Just don´t want any more dumb surprises.

So often it feels like the Mavs only play three months ahead.

I personally don´t believe Hachimura, McDaniels, Reddish or Bamba are more than $8-12M players (maybe put 20% on top due to the cap development), but contracts come in all shapes and forms.

Jalen McDaniels had earned "just" $6M in his career, so maybe he´s more inclined to sign a longer-term deal, say 3+1 player option deal for $36M. Mo Bamba already has 44M in the bank. Maybe with him you go: we opt out in summer, do a new 45/3 deal, but in exchange for increased salary and an additional year, we get a team option for the 3rd year. Just put deals in place that both sides are happy with.

[omahen]

Just put deals in place that both sides are happy with.

I doubt Mavs would be happy with any of the deals you proposed. None of the players has shown so far, he is worth anything near that money.

[omahen]

That $8M would be the only contract between DFS/Maxi and McGee, so that might not be a bad thing.

I agree. Not sure about the legal details how to get there, but this is something I would find interesting. More as a trade asset, to be honest, as I don't find it likely he will justify the value.

[Mavs2021]

I doubt Mavs would be happy with any of the deals you proposed. None of the players has shown so far, he is worth anything near that money.

That´s part of the talent evaluation. You project what a player will be worth over the duration of his next contract, not what he is worth in the moment. That´s how you get Brunson on a 64/4 deal rather than letting him walk for 110/4 twelve months later.

[omahen]

That´s part of the talent evaluation.

You do realize that the talent evaluation might be the one that considers those guys are not worth anything near that money? I am not sure why you think it is such a sure thing those three will become starter level players at the amount of money you are prepared to give them. Its not like Reddish and Bamba didn't have the opportunity to show what they got. McDaniels might be in the MLE level conversation.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

If Dallas keeps Wood, they need to do one of two things...1. put the right 'big wing' next to him.  2.  Get a starting center who is obviously better who moves Wood back to the bench.  The Wood decision is a great example of Rock and a Hard Place.  

Thanks for the thread and thoughts, always cool stuff.

I’ve been thinking about the above a lot lately and even more so since Wood got hurt.  We’ve looked great on offense a ton of time that we were starting Wood after the Green/Maxi/DFS injuries but the defensive output has really made me realize how true the fact is that Wood is better used as a bench big. I believed from game 1 that he should play more but was also wary of the defense and don’t really think that starting him really made a difference but it’s certainly clear now how much Maxi covers so many of his warts. I DO however believe that he’s too talented to not extend, it is worth the money to ensure that we have a Luka/Wood PNR as an option on this roster.

That brings me to the above. I agree that we need to do one of those things (and we tried an failed miserably with McGee) but do we see a path where we can extend Wood and accomplish both of the above?  I see our assets for this trade deadline as Hardaway/Bullock/Frank/SRPs and to a lesser extent extent Bertans/McGee because of their value.  If you’re getting a center back then you can always use Powell. That would leave us with Dinwiddies expiring all our firsts and whatever else is left from the previous group as our assets this offseason. Green and Hardy should be off limits for anyone who isn’t first or second team all nba, full stop.

When you look at it that way, can you extend wood, use the assets for this trade deadline on what of the needs stated above and then Dinwiddie and the picks on the other?  We would have a rotation that has Wood roasting second units in the second quarter but more importantly you would be able to close games with two of Wood/Maxi/DFS/new center/new wing. I think that kind of flexibility would make coaching decisions tough but also put us in a spot to matchup with any team you can think of.

The one thing this also puts pressure on is Greens continued ascension as one of the best players on this roster and rapid growth of Hardy because if you make the moves described, you’re really getting thin at playmaking again. Can a second unit with Green and Hardy making decisions be competent enough on offense for that need to go away? If the answer is yes and you go the route of supporting woods presence on the roster with the other moves suggested then I think you have a pretty potent team on your hands.

Apologies if some of this is redundant, having really caught up on this thread at all.

---

One thing I wanted to note in my diatribe was that when Wood went down as everyone was coming back, my first thought was if this defense turns around I could see it very difficult for Wood to get his starting role back depending on how much time he misses.

[omahen]

Thinking a bit more of a big picture. The issue that has become a trend is lack of sellers. Before the league implemented the play-in, there were many teams giving up on the season early. Now, there are only a few, while 20+ teams is looking for upgrades. The prices are going up and it is becoming more and more difficult to buy your way out of the troubles. Teams will be more and more looking for trades where they will be exchanging players because of the better fit, not because one team is tanking and one is contending. Correct player assessment and player development are fields where money should go in a smart team now, imho. 

We can't be totally dissatisfied with Mavs in that regard. Green and Hardy look like good picks with a lot of potential. One would wish more of that. Green from previous regime and Hardy from this one. The rest of team building has been a long term disaster in both regimes. I guess because Mavs really always look for short term success.

[omahen]

One thing I wanted to note in my diatribe was that when Wood went down as everyone was coming back, my first thought was if this defense turns around I could see it very difficult for Wood to get his starting role back depending on how much time he misses.

Wood's defense should get a chance as only big with all the defensive wings around him, imho. Sort of as they played yesterday. I don't understand why they went back to two center combo lately, even with wings back.

[Kammrath]

The issue that has become a trend is lack of sellers.

Which is exactly why the Mavs need to sell. They have a season or two to right the ship. Walking the treadmill of mediocrity is the worst way forward.

[cow]

Which is exactly why the Mavs need to sell. They have a season or two to right the ship. Walking the treadmill of mediocrity is the worst way forward.

Bingo.

Wasn't Cuban a fan of saying that he liked to zig when other teams zag?  Here is the opportunity.  My preference for the TDL would be the following:

1.)  Be opportunistic and try to extract value from the likes of THJ, Bullock, Dorian, Wood, and Dinwiddie.
2.)  Spend minor assets (2RPs) to swap headaches with another team:  McGee + Picks for Ibaka + filler
3.)  Do nothing.  We'll be a lot more versatile after this years draft.  We just need to be patient.
10.)  Spend assets to try to upgrade this roster.

The side benefit of the first option would be to get my minutes to develop Josh and Hardy.

[F Gump]

As good as Luka is (and as ball dominant), I tend to agree.  If we had 8 guys who made sense together to where we had enough O and enough D in lineups to give us a fighting chance, I'd be for giving up picks.  My issue is we aren't one move from getting there.  I like giving up a pick in a deal for someone like Myles Turner.  He could push Wood to the bench, but the two of them could also play together in stretches.  I think he would help the defensive issues also.  I'd see the roster looking like:

Turner      Wood
DFS         Maxi
Green      
SD           Reggie
Luka        

But, we still have holes.  If we are going to use one pick to fill one hole, we might as well use another to finish things off.  In the scenario above Powell, THJ and two picks could be used to acquire Turner and that one more guy.  Depending on the quality of that 'one-more-guy', that might be enough (I'll now wait for Killer to tell me we had that guy and let him go).  Even if we still had Brunson, we'd still need a Turner-type IMHO.

I tend to think Turner would be a great get.

But I also see a 4 major issues with that idea that cause me to question it --
1 Most importantly, Turner is NOT the answer we might hope for a center. He is a rather meh rebounder for a C (only 9 reb-per-36), and rebounding is one of the biggest needs here. IOW not sure that a "Turner-type" is what we really are wanting at all.
2 Indy's price for Turner has a good chance to be sky-high.
3 Turner is an expiring contract, who wants the moon, and there's no way to know if you can re-sign him after trading for him. Like KP.
4 Turner is healthy this year, but in the past has been sidelined a lot by injuries. With the trade price AND the looming contract price, that's scary.

My knee-jerk on Turner is, "Sign me up." But when I kick the tires and look closer, I'm not nearly as excited.

[Mavs2021]

You do realize that the talent evaluation might be the one that considers those guys are not worth anything near that money? I am not sure why you think it is such a sure thing those three will become starter level players at the amount of money you are prepared to give them. Its not like Reddish and Bamba didn't have the opportunity to show what they got. McDaniels might be in the MLE level conversation.

And? Then you don´t make the trade. Not sure what the problem is. I just want them to have a deal in place with the player, when they pull the trigger on a trade. No agreement = no trade.

[Chicagojk]

They are in a difficult place.   I don't think they need to panic or blow things up though.  They just need to make smart moves and get lucky they are in position when the big move transpires.

They are in a much better place if Green and Hardy are real players.  Green looks to be making the leap.  Hardy isn't ready for big, important minutes yet.  But I hope we keep finding 4-6 minutes per game (more if he plays well).   You aren't going to lose games by playing him those minutes.   Maybe he surprises as the year goes on and proves he is ready for more.  In reality, it is probably next year where he is more of a regular in the rotation.  But this time will prove valuable to him.

Watching the Mavs last night, I really like a team of 6'6 to 6'10 guys who are athletes and can hit open shots.  Add a two way wing who is all-star caliber than we are almost there.  

This offseason, it would be really nice to find a Kenreich Williams type or Lu Dort type.  Preferably a bigger wing though.  Add that type of player who is a tough player and then you have three promising players.  If you want to be a tough and smart team, draft/sign tough and smart players.     

Hardaway is the only player I think has a chance of moving.   It is probably unlikely though. I think it would be for a creator if he was moved.

[mvossman]

Thanks for the thread and thoughts, always cool stuff.

I’ve been thinking about the above a lot lately and even more so since Wood got hurt.  We’ve looked great on offense a ton of time that we were starting Wood after the Green/Maxi/DFS injuries but the defensive output has really made me realize how true the fact is that Wood is better used as a bench big. I believed from game 1 that he should play more but was also wary of the defense and don’t really think that starting him really made a difference but it’s certainly clear now how much Maxi covers so many of his warts. I DO however believe that he’s too talented to not extend, it is worth the money to ensure that we have a Luka/Wood PNR as an option on this roster.

That brings me to the above. I agree that we need to do one of those things (and we tried an failed miserably with McGee) but do we see a path where we can extend Wood and accomplish both of the above?  I see our assets for this trade deadline as Hardaway/Bullock/Frank/SRPs and to a lesser extent extent Bertans/McGee because of their value.  If you’re getting a center back then you can always use Powell. That would leave us with Dinwiddies expiring all our firsts and whatever else is left from the previous group as our assets this offseason. Green and Hardy should be off limits for anyone who isn’t first or second team all nba, full stop.

When you look at it that way, can you extend wood, use the assets for this trade deadline on what of the needs stated above and then Dinwiddie and the picks on the other?  We would have a rotation that has Wood roasting second units in the second quarter but more importantly you would be able to close games with two of Wood/Maxi/DFS/new center/new wing. I think that kind of flexibility would make coaching decisions tough but also put us in a spot to matchup with any team you can think of.

The one thing this also puts pressure on is Greens continued ascension as one of the best players on this roster and rapid growth of Hardy because if you make the moves described, you’re really getting thin at playmaking again. Can a second unit with Green and Hardy making decisions be competent enough on offense for that need to go away? If the answer is yes and you go the route of supporting woods presence on the roster with the other moves suggested then I think you have a pretty potent team on your hands.

Apologies if some of this is redundant, having really caught up on this thread at all.

---

One thing I wanted to note in my diatribe was that when Wood went down as everyone was coming back, my first thought was if this defense turns around I could see it very difficult for Wood to get his starting role back depending on how much time he misses.

Don't think its really fair to blame starting Wood for our defensive woes when the real problem was our top three defensive players were out.  Lets see what it looks like when we put a couple of defensive players in the starting lineup with him.  The 4 man lineup of Wood/Luka/Timmy/Green has a DEF rating of 96 and a net rating of +36.  Its a small sample and was likely against second units, but we don't have nearly enough sample to suggest Wood can't make it as a starting center defensively.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Don't think its really fair to blame starting Wood for our defensive woes when the real problem was our top three defensive players were out.  Lets see what it looks like when we put a couple of defensive players in the starting lineup with him.  The 4 man lineup of Wood/Luka/Timmy/Green has a DEF rating of 96 and a net rating of +36.  Its a small sample and was likely against second units, but we don't have nearly enough sample to suggest Wood can't make it as a starting center defensively.

That’s a crazy net rating combo I hadn’t heard about. I know that Luka/Maxi/Wood also has a crazy one.

I agree that Wood isn’t solely responsible for the defense falling apart and also believe that Wood as a solo big with the wings we have can be good enough defensively against the majority of teams once they get enough reps. I think what I was trying to layout is there could be a path here to build a roster where we can utilize Woods offense while also building an ELITE defense against all sorts of teams which is what it will take to become a true contender. I imagine a roster with like an OG and Nerlens (just random combo of names that have been floated) that you can now add to Wood and Maxi and Finney and now you basically have a bunch of different lineup combos with Wood that will be very good on defensive end.

[Jason Terry]

That’s a crazy net rating combo I hadn’t heard about. I know that Luka/Maxi/Wood also has a crazy one.

I agree that Wood isn’t solely responsible for the defense falling apart and also believe that Wood as a solo big with the wings we have can be good enough defensively against the majority of teams once they get enough reps. I think what I was trying to layout is there could be a path here to build a roster where we can utilize Woods offense while also building an ELITE defense against all sorts of teams which is what it will take to become a true contender. I imagine a roster with like an OG and Nerlens (just random combo of names that have been floated) that you can now add to Wood and Maxi and Finney and now you basically have a bunch of different lineup combos with Wood that will be very good on defensive end.

I want to see Luka/Green/Dorian/Wood/Maxi lineup. That’s Luka and Wood with our 3 best defenders

[DanSchwartzgan]

Don't think its really fair to blame starting Wood for our defensive woes when the real problem was our top three defensive players were out.  Lets see what it looks like when we put a couple of defensive players in the starting lineup with him.  The 4 man lineup of Wood/Luka/Timmy/Green has a DEF rating of 96 and a net rating of +36.  Its a small sample and was likely against second units, but we don't have nearly enough sample to suggest Wood can't make it as a starting center defensively.

This is the reason I tried to be careful to present options around Wood rather than turn this into anything absolute.  I’m not married to keeping or getting rid of him, but I do feel strongly that you have to make an effort to make the lineups around him work defensively if he’s a starter.  

Maxi made Wood work.  Green makes Wood work.  Lineups with THJ and Wood tend to work.  As you indicate, the four man combo of Wood, Luka, THJ and Green is fantastic.  In fact, add in Kleber to that group of four and any four man combination of those five guys is great.  The five-man combo’s are such small samples, but logic would dictate that Wood, Maxi, THJ, Green and Luka would be great.  

The three man combinations that group any of Powell, DFS, Reggie and SD tend to play well also.  What I think we are missing is someone who can replicate Maxi.  I gravitate to guys like Vanderbilt, PJ Washington and the McDaniels brothers.  Love Toppin and I kind of think Jericho Sims has the mobility to replicate what Maxi does on D.  Not all of these guys are Advanced Stat darlings.  Frankly, neither is Maxi.  His EPM is in the 22nd percentile and his VORP, BPM and WS are all JAG territory.  But, what he does makes lineups work.  His time has to be managed and he isn’t young.  I think the right guy who helps to make ALL of the Wood minutes work defensively (not just the 24 Maxi can play) would be really helpful to proving up the theory that Wood’s D can be good enough to allow access to the Luka/Wood PnR on offense.

[KillerLeft]

Wasn't Cuban a fan of saying that he liked to zig when other teams zag? 

He certainly said that...not sure I remember him ever doing that.