03-27-2023, 04:21 PM
(03-27-2023, 03:24 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Why is this a virtual win when we just lost 2 games to a worse team without their best player?
1. Record since Jan. 16st, Hornets: 14-17, Pacers: 10-20
2. Hornets had literally nothing to play for. They can play to win, cause they are locked into the 4th seed.
3. Pacers play for ping-pong balls. They have the biggest incentive to tank from all the teams left that the Mavs play.
3a.) 5th to 8th odds are within half a game. 5th seed means 42% top 4 pick, 6th seed means 37% top 4 pick, 7th/8th means 29% each for top 4 pick.
3b.) So for the Pacers it really really matters whether they win or lose, and they are clearly trying to lose.
3c.) So if you are not equally committed to tanking a game, against a team that wants to lose, you are likely going to win, regardless of all your problems. Effort matters that much.
4. If the Hornets actually played to lose, we´d have won AT LEAST the 2nd game, when we took the lead.
4a.) The Pacers don´t play to win. I don´t even think Carlisle cares that much about the Mavs, but won´t mind that a Pacers loss also basically ends our season and hurts the Mavs/Luka even more.