ROSTER TALK: Mavs favs for Vogel if no HC job exists. Kyrie handshake deal?

[mvossman]

Allow me to retort…sorry but this will be a little long.

Let’s start with a baseline I THINK most can agree with:

1. The Mavs are a good team but a talent upgrade is needed to reach the next level.
   
2. Acquiring that talent has challenges (I.e. cap space and desirable bargaining chips)
   
3. Due to these challenges, most of our opportunities will likely come with warts attached.
   

My other beliefs that influence my thinking (others may agree or disagree):

1. We have little to go on as far as the skill sets needed to best compliment both Luka and the acquired talent.  KP was the closest to a star that we have put beside Luka and their chemistry never clicked.  Was it because KP sucked or there were personality conflicts?  I don’t know.  Maybe it was just a miss match of skill sets needed to maximize both players talents.  I do know that we see stars join forces all the time and it’s amazing how often they never gel.
   
2. Since Luka has been a Mav, he has run the show and everyone with the exception of KP has had to adjust their games (and rightfully so).  JB was developed in house but even when he started reaching a level of stardom, it still often looked like “it’s your turn” b-ball at times.
   
3. If and when they bring in another star from outside the organization, that player will likely expect a certain level of attention from his new team.
   

My case for Kyrie at the right price:
  (Let me preface this by saying I know nothing about the salary cap…my case is purely 
  theoretical.  If others come back and say some of my rational’s don’t work for cap 
  reasons, just understand that I have little knowledge there and have not considered that in  
  my rational).

  This also assumes that reports of his low price are true.  I’m busy and don’t keep up but
  based on what I see here, I assume this is the case right now.

1. Kyrie is a legitimate superstar.
   
2. Kyrie has warts but they are mostly between the ears…his talent is NBA top level.
   
3. Kyrie may be looking for his last big payday very soon.  I believe the likelihood he behaves is high…he’s not going to screw up his money.  I’m sure he wants to thrive.
   
4. To acquire someone with Kyrie’s talents at nickels on the dollar is fairly rare.  Harden had some similar warts but it didn’t seem to have a big effect on asking price.
   
5. There seems to be few suitors, so the price MIGHT be fairly reasonable.
   
6. To go out and sign another star, our cap and chip situations means we will likely have to take on someone who is underperforming their contract.  To take our acquisition limitations and try to cherry-pick the right deal from limited options available today and hope they gel with Luka, while possibly worsening our future cap situation, makes me nervous.
   
7. Kyrie gives you an opportunity to test drive a superstar with a different skill set.  It’s one more data point as we seek to identify & maximize talent around Luka.
   
8. Irving is a one year deal and I assume (again not a cap guy), would provide more flexibility and potentially remove some of the acquiring limitations we have this year.
   
9. Acquiring Kyrie is not writing off this year.  Assuming he behaves, we don’t have the chips to acquire anyone close to his level of talent.  This is why I would not do Westbrook.  I think he is done, would not really improve the team, and would be unlikely to provide any useful insights into Luka or team needs.
   

If I have to take warts, IMO Kyrie has the right kinds of warts at the right time based on what is out there.  I’m nervous about rolling the dice on a less talented star on a ridiculous contract and hoping for the best.  

Most of the trade ideas we see on these boards are trying to come up with anything to make the best out of a bad situation.  Why is it unreasonable to make the best out of a situation and eliminate the bad from the equation?  If Kyrie could reasonably be had for combinations of Timmy, DB, Maxie, Powell, or Green, which remove what I consider to be average players taking up valuable space, while improving your team this year, providing valuable insights for future moves with minimal obligations, and opening up dollars and flexibility for next year, why would you not consider that?

A few comments:

Acquiring the talent needed to put us into contention will very likely be a trade instead of cap space.  We would have to gut the team to generate cap space, and there is a long history of this team generating cap space and getting nothing for it.

The talent we acquire does not have to have warts.  Jrue Holiday and Dejounte Murray had no warts.  They are the kind of player we are looking for (especially Jrue) and did not cost anything other than draft assets.  In less than a year we will have access to all of our draft assets.

We have a very good idea of what the perfect match is for Luka.  Offensively it needs to be somebody who can stretch the floor and can be a secondary creator/playmaker but does not need the ball in their hands.  That player also needs to be a plus perimeter defender.  KP did not fit because he was unwilling to run P&R and P&P with Luka, and wanted to do inefficient post stuff.  

Given our FO constant bungling since the Luka draft, we have very little in assets other than future draft picks.  That means we likely have one shot to make a big trade to put us in true contention.  We already tried that trade prematurely for a guy with warts (KP) and paid the price.  We can't afford to make that mistake again.  I would argue we do not want to go after a guy with warts.

If we are talking about something like Timmy plus Powell then you probably pull the trigger on that, but it is highly unlikely that gets it done.  I'm not interested in gutting the team for a one year rental who may not even show up.