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[Chicagojk]

Has anyone looked at the January schedule?

I know that December looked like a tough month. This is worse, IMHO. Two games against Portland (if we lose either of those games, regardless of margin, it's objectively time to whip out the Team Tank thread), followed by 13 games of which the closest opponents to cupcakes are Ja-Memphis, Phoenix, Atlanta, and Orlando. It's a murderers' row.

Pretty clear the team will finish the month sub-.500. Doesn't the KP pick turn into 2025 seconds if it doesn't convey this year? What a tough position for Nico and Lindsay. I understand that Luka can best preserve his integrity and bank account by remaining a Mav, but I start to sweat seriously about this if we don't make the playoffs this year. I believe that Lively and OMax will be near-All-Star caliber starters by year three for both of them (well, maybe year four for OMax), but that's quite a while to wait. The Kyrie timeline ship may have sailed. A panic trade that clutters cap could further ruin future prospects. Glad I'm not the GM. So unfortunate with how well they did with Lively and Exum (and DJJ, while not starting caliber, should be a good rotation piece for them) this past offseason. Green and GWill look like minor mistakes.

At this point, I think the best thing to salvage the season is to fire Kidd as coach ASAP. Not sure how long it takes the FO to see that, though.

I don't see it happening.   Kidd has the two biggest stars on his side.  He has positioned himself well.  I agree though, if this team were to miss the playoffs or lose in the playin, his job should be in jeopardy.  

Luka was great in December.   When he has an off game, I always wonder is this how we want to play?   Luka takes the most shots and is the best player on the court.  When he isn't, we are going to lose.   Do we just need to surround him (and Kyrie) with long defenders and go with it?   Or do we find guys and let Luka's brilliance empower them at what they do well?   Looking at Jalen's and KP's growth once they left Dallas makes we wonder if we should be doing things differently.   KP was never healthy so it is probably not fair to put his failure on this.   Luka has guys who he undoubtedly makes better.   But they sort of got to do things his way.   Is that the way it is or should we look to do things differently?

[SleepingHero]

Josh Bowe (@Boweman55)
someone in our chat during our podcast said this mavs team is in the same spot as last season, thinking the season will end similarly and I laughed it off and was like no way, but then looked it up and remembered the mavericks were 22-16 on jan. 2 of last year.


Not trying to pile on doom and gloom, but remembering how poorly Jan-April was for the Mavs is giving me PTSD.

[Winter]

I don't see it happening.   Kidd has the two biggest stars on his side.  He has positioned himself well.  I agree though, if this team were to miss the playoffs or lose in the playin, his job should be in jeopardy.  

Luka was great in December.   When he has an off game, I always wonder is this how we want to play?   Luka takes the most shots and is the best player on the court.  When he isn't, we are going to lose.   Do we just need to surround him (and Kyrie) with long defenders and go with it?   Or do we find guys and let Luka's brilliance empower them at what they do well?   Looking at Jalen's and KP's growth once they left Dallas makes we wonder if we should be doing things differently.   KP was never healthy so it is probably not fair to put his failure on this.   Luka has guys who he undoubtedly makes better.   But they sort of got to do things his way.   Is that the way it is or should we look to do things differently?

That's an interesting question. I often wonder if players like Kyrie simply don't have the impact because of factors having to do with a Luca-centric style of basketball. Many of the assets needed to compliment Luca are really redundant with another ball-handling guard. Instead, the better combination I think is with bigger players who can rebound, defend, and roll toward the basket. But if that's true, that's something the FO should have known years ago.

[omahen]

That's an interesting question. I often wonder if players like Kyrie simply don't have the impact because of factors having to do with a Luca-centric style of basketball. Many of the assets needed to compliment Luca are really redundant with another ball-handling guard. Instead, the better combination I think is with bigger players who can rebound, defend, and roll toward the basket. But if that's true, that's something the FO should have known years ago.

Luka adjusted a lot in the season start. Offense was way less Luka heavy than previous years. Luka also greatly improved his catch and shoot. We need guys who can do stuff on their own, one player can't carry all the burden. Way to predictable. What Mavs lack for years are two way players, who are possibly as good defenders as possible next to Luka and Kyrie. Exum is close to that, thats why he had so much success. 

Defense was decent without Kyrie, because the team can survive a couple of bad defenders (Luka, THJ), but again just fell apart against Utah as defense with Luka-Kyrie and THJ will never work. That was just difficult to watch, how many times defense completely fell apart. Sure, there were additional factors. Luka was obviously not right, that injury must be bothering him. He was static on defense and settling for difficult shots on offense. The whole team looked kind of lost. 

Luka can play some decent man to man defense, but he is not really helping with rotations. I think THJ has been really bad on defense this season, other than some highlight offensive fouls he is so good at forcing.

[Winter]

It's not really about one game. We got incrementally better this season because of our defenders. But our problems under the basket haven't changed in years.

Don't get me wrong. I don't think Luca needs to change. But adding Kyrie is only helpful around the margins and doesn't change the primary problem under the basket. I think you can make a case that Lively's addition may be the single most important change to the Mavericks roster.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I listened to The Dunker Spot podcast just now.  They are going through New Year's resolutions for each team based on whether they are Playoff, Play-in or out of the playoffs.  They had Dallas 6th in the west (among the playoff teams).  Two hosts with two resolutions...

1.  Figure out the non-Lively minutes (whether internal or external, something has to get better there).

2.  Figure out the hierarchy among the limited-skills guys (named DJJ, Exum, GWill and Green) and figure out how to get what those guys are supposed to bring more consistently.  

If you aren't trading for a star, those aren't too far off.

[Scott41theMavs]

I listened to The Dunker Spot podcast just now.  They are going through New Year's resolutions for each team based on whether they are Playoff, Play-in or out of the playoffs.  They had Dallas 6th in the west (among the playoff teams).  Two hosts with two resolutions...

1.  Figure out the non-Lively minutes (whether internal or external, something has to get better there).

2.  Figure out the hierarchy among the limited-skills guys (named DJJ, Exum, GWill and Green) and figure out how to get what those guys are supposed to bring more consistently.  

If you aren't trading for a star, those aren't too far off.

DJJ, Exum, GWill, and Green. 

One of these is far more skilled than the other three and shouldn't be included in that conversation ***at all.***

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

I listened to The Dunker Spot podcast just now.  They are going through New Year's resolutions for each team based on whether they are Playoff, Play-in or out of the playoffs.  They had Dallas 6th in the west (among the playoff teams).  Two hosts with two resolutions...

1.  Figure out the non-Lively minutes (whether internal or external, something has to get better there).

2.  Figure out the hierarchy among the limited-skills guys (named DJJ, Exum, GWill and Green) and figure out how to get what those guys are supposed to bring more consistently.  

If you aren't trading for a star, those aren't too far off.

I’ve said this before: if it were my team, I would establish Josh Green’s role by *readying for eye rolls* running some set plays for him. Get him reps in practice and get him to spots where analytics say he is most effective. G-Will is pretty much what he is. DJJ and Exum have figured out their places and know when to attack the basket and know their comfort zones as young vets. If we are keeping Green, we need to develop the plan for the next steps for him. He’s got good court vision and a decent pull-up mid range game. Part of what makes Austin Reeves good. He doesn’t have the experience or craftiness Reeves does in drawing fouls. Downside of being a young one and done.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

I’ve said this before: if it were my team, I would establish Josh Green’s role by *readying for eye rolls* running some set plays for him. Get him reps in practice and get him to spots where analytics say he is most effective. G-Will is pretty much what he is. DJJ and Exum have figured out their places and know when to attack the basket and know their comfort zones as young vets. If we are keeping Green, we need to develop the plan for the next steps for him. He’s got good court vision and a decent pull-up mid range game. Part of what makes Austin Reeves good. He doesn’t have the experience or craftiness Reeves does in drawing fouls. Downside of being a young one and done.

At this point, Green is what he is.  His defense and athleticism are evident, but he hasn't shown a willingness to vastly improved his offensive game from my view. I wonder if Kidd is really the one holding his game back? I don't think Kidd trusts him enough to build his confidence, and as long as Luka's running the show, opportunities are going to be limited. That's why Brunson bailed, and look at him now.

[omahen]

At this point, Green is what he is.  His defense and athleticism are evident, but he hasn't shown a willingness to vastly improved his offensive game from my view. I wonder if Kidd is really the one holding his game back? I don't think Kidd trusts him enough to build his confidence, and as long as Luka's running the show, opportunities are going to be limited. That's why Brunson bailed, and look at him now.

I don't think you can put that on Luka. THJ, DJJ, Exum and GW are all taking more shots than Green. Lively, who is very limited offensively, takes approximately same amount of shots. Curry is taking 4.4 shots per game (compared to Green 5.8) in half as many minutes. He has been virtually same player in the Australian national team, where Exum again didn't have problems taking his shots. As you said, he is who he is. Perhaps he would build his confidence if offense would go through him, but he is just not good enough to do that on a contender. 

I also don't think he is a very good defender. Huge problems getting around screens.

I think Brunson mainly bailed because Mavs didn't believe in him.

[sefant]

Defense was decent without Kyrie, because the team can survive a couple of bad defenders (Luka, THJ), but again just fell apart against Utah as defense with Luka-Kyrie and THJ will never work.

Luka/Kyrie/Tim on
Exum off

- 9.49 net


Exum/Tim on 
Luka/Kyrie off

+ 16.52 net

Kyrie/Tim on
Luka/Exum off

+ 1.73 net

Luka/Tim on
Exum/Kyrie off

- 7.51 net

[Winter]

I think there has always been two rather different takes on Green on this board. This season though, it appears that both of these factions are starting to meet in the middle.

Green can play rotation minutes (I was never sure about that), but he's clearly inconsistent. He's had enough years to straighten that out I think, although he still may progress some. In a nutshell, I'm happy where he is because he's got some value in a trade. But I think Exum has now become what we've would have liked Green to become. And because of other players at the wing, Green is more expendable now than any season prior.

So my feelings about Green are largely ambivalent at this point. I hope he is currency in a trade, but I don't feel he is always a net-minus in the rotation.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I think there has always been two rather different takes on Green on this board. This season though, it appears that both of these factions are starting to meet in the middle.

Green can play rotation minutes (I was never sure about that), but he's clearly inconsistent. He's had enough years to straighten that out I think, although he still may progress some. In a nutshell, I'm happy where he is because he's got some value in a trade. But I think Exum has now become what we've would have liked Green to become. And because of other players at the wing, Green is more expendable now than any season prior.

So my feelings about Green are largely ambivalent at this point. I hope he is currency in a trade, but I don't feel he is always a net-minus in the rotation.

I think this is fair (certainly more fair than some of your early takes here).  

For me, it is the flashes he shows.  Somewhere in there is a really good multi-tool player who fits well with a ball dominant lead guard.  But, between injuries and inconsistency (or inconsistent role), he can't seem to put it together other than in occasional bursts.  

I don't like the idea of trading him because I think he may put it together for someone else.  But, if the prize is big enough I'm fine with him being in the package.  Heck, I've been putting Green in packages since the summer and I'm his biggest defender.  You can't be absolute on these things.  Almost anyone can be traded if the return is right.

[omahen]

Luka/Kyrie/Tim on
Exum off

- 9.49 net


Exum/Tim on 
Luka/Kyrie off

+ 16.52 net

Kyrie/Tim on
Luka/Exum off

+ 1.73 net

Luka/Tim on
Exum/Kyrie off

- 7.51 net

I am not really sure what is the conclusion here. A lot of data missing (who are the other three players mainly playing with the listed guys?)

Three man lineup of Kyrie-Luka has a defensive rating of 121,9 for the season, which is very bad. Mavs are building around Luka and we all agree he is usually not a very good defender (he can be when he wants to). Next in line is Kyrie. The other guys should fit next to those two. I don't think you can make a case THJ is an above average defender.

Defensive on/off:
Luka: -4.2
Kyrie: -1.2
THJ: -8.3

[Chicagojk]

I also don't think he is a very good defender. Huge problems getting around screens.

His last game was so disappointing.    I think it is unfair he will hit the percentage of shots that he hit against GS.   My big thing is I want to feel his impact even if he has a cold shooting night.  Every player is going to have duds, but it can't swing so wildly as it has for Green this year....with negative games outweiging the positive games, an no real grouping of games together of good play.   It would be great to see 3 games of good/solid play and 1 bad game.  Something like that.   

I agree with his defense.  I think we all assume he is a good defender because he fits the profile and has the characteristics of a good defender.   It doesn't pass the eye test for me though.   I am hoping it is a young player who hasn't learned the tricks and leverage yet.  But this is year 4 for him.   Both him and Omax (Hardy for me too) are so important for this franchise to be good role players.   It just makes things so much easier if you feel comfortable with those guys moving forward.

[mvossman]

I am not really sure what is the conclusion here. A lot of data missing (who are the other three players mainly playing with the listed guys?)

Three man lineup of Kyrie-Luka has a defensive rating of 121,9 for the season, which is very bad. Mavs are building around Luka and we all agree he is usually not a very good defender (he can be when he wants to). Next in line is Kyrie. The other guys should fit next to those two. I don't think you can make a case THJ is an above average defender.

Defensive on/off:
Luka: -4.2
Kyrie: -1.2
THJ: -8.3

If the argument is that we should probably not be playing Timmy with Luka and Kyrie from a defensive perspective, I would agree.  When everyone is healthy there are roughly 30 minutes a game of court time for Timmy to play while one of them is off, so there is no real need to play them together.  

Tim is not a particularly good defender, but I think some of that number above is due to our undersized second unit.  There has been discussion on another thread regarding using Timmy to get a bigger power forward that we can start, pushing DJJ to the second unit to replace Timmy.  Unfortunately most of the options are primarily offensive, meaning that you are making the starting unit even better offensively, but worse defensively.  I'm not sure having 3 non plus defenders in the starting lineup is a viable long term solution.

[omahen]

If the argument is that we should probably not be playing Timmy with Luka and Kyrie from a defensive perspective, I would agree.  When everyone is healthy there are roughly 30 minutes a game of court time for Timmy to play while one of them is off, so there is no real need to play them together.  

Tim is not a particularly good defender, but I think some of that number above is due to our undersized second unit.  There has been discussion on another thread regarding using Timmy to get a bigger power forward that we can start, pushing DJJ to the second unit to replace Timmy.  Unfortunately most of the options are primarily offensive, meaning that you are making the starting unit even better offensively, but worse defensively.  I'm not sure having 3 non plus defenders in the starting lineup is a viable long term solution.

I think this only applies for regular season, to an extent. But when things get serious, there will be far less minutes with only one of Luka/Kyrie on the court. At that point you are either doomed with a line-up that can't play good defense or THJ becomes way overpaid for the available minutes where he makes sense.

That is why the logic has always been to bring a player that can provide his share offensively, even if it is in a different way, but it is a much better defender. Guys like Grant or Harris may not be all NBA defenders, but they are not any worse than THJ and they are in a position where Mavs really have a need. I don't think DJJ would be replacing Timmy. His minutes would be replaced by the new guy while DJJ keeps the minutes he already has. It is just that it would be way easier to play the new guy next to Luka/Kyrie compared to THJ.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

I don't think you can put that on Luka. THJ, DJJ, Exum and GW are all taking more shots than Green. Lively, who is very limited offensively, takes approximately same amount of shots. Curry is taking 4.4 shots per game (compared to Green 5.8) in half as many minutes. He has been virtually same player in the Australian national team, where Exum again didn't have problems taking his shots. As you said, he is who he is. Perhaps he would build his confidence if offense would go through him, but he is just not good enough to do that on a contender. 

I also don't think he is a very good defender. Huge problems getting around screens.

I think Brunson mainly bailed because Mavs didn't believe in him.

Fair enough.

[KillerLeft]

I think there has always been two rather different takes on Green on this board. This season though, it appears that both of these factions are starting to meet in the middle.

Green can play rotation minutes (I was never sure about that), but he's clearly inconsistent. He's had enough years to straighten that out I think, although he still may progress some. In a nutshell, I'm happy where he is because he's got some value in a trade. But I think Exum has now become what we've would have liked Green to become. And because of other players at the wing, Green is more expendable now than any season prior.

So my feelings about Green are largely ambivalent at this point. I hope he is currency in a trade, but I don't feel he is always a net-minus in the rotation.

Overall, this is reasonable and I agree. 

I just want to point out that Exum wasn’t as good as green is now before he had to go overseas for a couple of years to figure things out.

So, the “green is what he is” part of all of this discussion is not a given, imo. And ironically, Exum sort of proves that.

[mvossman]

I think this only applies for regular season, to an extent. But when things get serious, there will be far less minutes with only one of Luka/Kyrie on the court. At that point you are either doomed with a line-up that can't play good defense or THJ becomes way overpaid for the available minutes where he makes sense.

That is why the logic has always been to bring a player that can provide his share offensively, even if it is in a different way, but it is a much better defender. Guys like Grant or Harris may not be all NBA defenders, but they are not any worse than THJ and they are in a position where Mavs really have a need. I don't think DJJ would be replacing Timmy. His minutes would be replaced by the new guy while DJJ keeps the minutes he already has. It is just that it would be way easier to play the new guy next to Luka/Kyrie compared to THJ.

In the playoffs it may only be 15-20 minutes.  I mean are we are talking about Timmy being overpaid while also suggesting we trade for Tobias Harris at 40 mil?

If new guy is Grant or Harris, he is going in the starting unit which means he is not directly replacing Timmy.  Do you think we can contend with a starting lineup of Lively/new guy/Luka/Kyrie/(DJJ or Exum) if new guy is not a plus defender?