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[mvossman]

The defense around Luka/Kyrie is not that far off from contender worthy (top 10 range) if you exclude Tim. At least if you look at the defense of specific lineups.

Its interesting because last season Timmy (and Powell for that matter) had one of the better D ratings and one of the better net ratings on the team.  The Luka/Kyrie/Timmy lineups had a D rating of 111 and a net of +13 on a bad team.  That is from a sample of 226 minutes, which would be in the top 10 of 3 man lineup samples for this season.

So why are the numbers so wildly different this season?  Did both players get worse?  Is the lineup construction killing them?  Is there a ton of noise in these stats?

Its easier to see in Powell's case.  He has lost a step.  He is playing in smaller lineups.  He is being asked to play drop coverage instead of switching.  His on/off sub last season (at least early on) was McGee, who was a disaster on/off.

Regardless, I agree with the premise that you want at least three defenders on the court with Luka (or Kyrie).  That still leaves roughly 30 minutes of court time when one of Luka or Kyrie are off.  When everyone is healthy, I could see a minutes distribution something like:

Luka 36
Kyrie 32
Exum 32
DJJ 28
Lively 28
GWill 28
Timmy 28
Green 16
Powell/Holmes 12

[KillerLeft]

Its interesting because last season Timmy (and Powell for that matter) had one of the better D ratings and one of the better net ratings on the team.  The Luka/Kyrie/Timmy lineups had a D rating of 111 and a net of +13 on a bad team.  That is from a sample of 226 minutes, which would be in the top 10 of 3 man lineup samples for this season.

So why are the numbers so wildly different this season?  Did both players get worse?  Is the lineup construction killing them?  Is there a ton of noise in these stats?

Its easier to see in Powell's case.  He has lost a step.  He is playing in smaller lineups.  He is being asked to play drop coverage instead of switching.  His on/off sub last season (at least early on) was McGee, who was a disaster on/off.

Agree all around. 

I am surprised people are acting like Hardaway's defense is some big problem. My eyes tell me he's competing hard on that end and even making some tough defensive plays at crucial moments. Tough for me to put stock in numbers that say otherwise. I will be interested to see how those numbers change in the coming months, as my eyes are also telling me that the team is improving, defensively. 

I also think Powell has been disappointing on defense. I don't think he's as well-suited for the drop coverages they've chosen this year (for Lively, obviously) as he is in a more switch-heavy scheme. He's basically wasted. It's very, very clear that Kleber was the team's plan for backup 5, as he's much more suited for drop coverage/paint defense than Powell (though I'd argue that sells him a bit short, too) and Holmes doesn't appear to be in consideration for anything other than a part-time-as-needed role. 

Not sure what to do about this backup 5 issue, because the answer is 100% NOT to have Lively and another big similar to him. Anyone who follows the NBA should see the flaw with that thinking a mile away. What if one of them (or, *gulp* BOTH) simply can't hang in the playoffs? I would say the likelihood of that becoming a problem is quite high. 

So, the backup 5 needs to be someone who CAN hang on a switch, at least for a few seconds, and then RECOVER to the paint. And I say this in full knowledge that the Mavs are trying to avoid playing that way. At some point, they won't have a choice. That's how the playoffs work, it's not optional. On the other end, if the player has no offensive utility, or even a limited one, he puts an insane burden on the others to create offense against playoff-caliber defenses. JJ Redick and others have been vocal recently about the idea that this problem, having to play someone who doesn't have to be guarded, guarantees that a team cannot win in the playoffs. I agree.

I like this team LESS after most of the trades for centers I see. I'm not saying backup 5 is not a concern, but I don't know if I'm ready to declare that hoping for Kleber's healthy return to playing confidently isn't the best solution. It seems like Kidd is currently in the process of making sure Grant Williams knows that position's responsibilities, too. I think that's wise, and might be a good way to go at times in the playoffs (imagine the spacing). Kidd realizing that he needs to cultivate options and different play styles is encouraging to me. It's telling that he is going with Williams/Morris at the 5 more than Holmes. I don't think that's ALL about his opinion of the level of Holmes' game, but also about his opinion of the STYLE of Holmes' game.

[loki]

I also think Powell has been disappointing on defense. I don't think he's as well-suited for the drop coverages they've chosen this year (for Lively, obviously) as he is in a more switch-heavy scheme. He's basically wasted. It's very, very clear that Kleber was the team's plan for backup 5, as he's much more suited for drop coverage/paint defense than Powell (though I'd argue that sells him a bit short, too) and Holmes doesn't appear to be in consideration for anything other than a part-time-as-needed role. 

Not sure what to do about this backup 5 issue, because the answer is 100% NOT to have Lively and another big similar to him. Anyone who follows the NBA should see the flaw with that thinking a mile away. What if one of them (or, *gulp* BOTH) simply can't hang in the playoffs? I would say the likelihood of that becoming a problem is quite high. 

So, the backup 5 needs to be someone who CAN hang on a switch, at least for a few seconds, and then RECOVER to the paint. And I say this in full knowledge that the Mavs are trying to avoid playing that way. At some point, they won't have a choice. That's how the playoffs work, it's not optional. On the other end, if the player has no offensive utility, or even a limited one, he puts an insane burden on the others to create offense against playoff-caliber defenses. JJ Redick and others have been vocal recently about the idea that this problem, having to play someone who doesn't have to be guarded, guarantees that a team cannot win in the playoffs. I agree.

I like this team LESS after most of the trades for centers I see. I'm not saying backup 5 is not a concern, but I don't know if I'm ready to declare that hoping for Kleber's healthy return to playing confidently isn't the best solution. It seems like Kidd is currently in the process of making sure Grant Williams knows that position's responsibilities, too. I think that's wise, and might be a good way to go at times in the playoffs (imagine the spacing). Kidd realizing that he needs to cultivate options and different play styles is encouraging to me. It's telling that he is going with Williams/Morris at the 5 more than Holmes. I don't think that's ALL about his opinion of the level of Holmes' game, but also about his opinion of the STYLE of Holmes' game.

Maxi coming back healthy and playing like he did a few years ago would be the simplest solution, but that feels like wishful thinking at this point. He only played 37 games last season and now he's broken down again. Hopefully they get him back on the floor in time to re-evaluate before the trade deadline.

I'm not nearly as worried about the backup center being switchable. You have to get to the playoffs first, and if the Mavs are dropping winnable games due to the Powell/Holmes minutes, it could have a huge impact on their playoff seeing. It might even bump them to a play-in team if they aren't careful. Sure, it would be great if you have a backup you knew could hang in the postseason, but if Lively can't do that as well I feel like they're screwed either way. The matchup matters as well. Imagine they end up playing the Wolves without a legit backup because they were worried about smallball. That could get ugly.

Of course, it all depends on the assets and cap flexibility they have to give up to obtain this proposed backup. I was on the Gafford train all offseason, but with the recent discussions of re-signing DJJ I'm not sure they can afford someone that expensive. Guys like Richards and Goga seem to be more in line with what they could pay. I'd happily give up Powell+2nds or even Hardy for someone like that. That type of deal doesn't rule out the Kleber-dream either.

[KillerLeft]

Maxi coming back healthy and playing like he did a few years ago would be the simplest solution, but that feels like wishful thinking at this point. He only played 37 games last season and now he's broken down again. Hopefully they get him back on the floor in time to re-evaluate before the trade deadline.

I'm not nearly as worried about the backup center being switchable. You have to get to the playoffs first, and if the Mavs are dropping winnable games due to the Powell/Holmes minutes, it could have a huge impact on their playoff seeing. It might even bump them to a play-in team if they aren't careful. Sure, it would be great if you have a backup you knew could hang in the postseason, but if Lively can't do that as well I feel like they're screwed either way. The matchup matters as well. Imagine they end up playing the Wolves without a legit backup because they were worried about smallball. That could get ugly.

Agree with some of the good points here. Yes, the first paragraph is wishful thinking FOR SURE. It's just that I haven't seen a better solution offered (yet). That is probably due in part to our difference in opinion concerning the 2nd paragraph. 

As for the emboldened sentence, I SO, SO, SO HOPE the Mavs can get matched up with Minnesota in a 7-game series. Imo, there will be no easier out in all of the playoffs. What Minnesota is trying has (in my opinion, obviously) a ZERO percent chance of working in the playoffs. I am less worried about Minnesota than any other Western Conference team, and it's the specific and obvious tactic of spreading them out and NOT trying match size with them that will have them out in the first round. 

Maybe this is premature of me, but I'm not all that worried about the Mavs making the playoffs. I've seen enough to know they'll beat the teams they should beat, they CAN win some big, tough games, they enjoy playing together and are improving as we go through the schedule. They'll finish between 3-8, easily. I'd bet they end up above the play-in line.

[Mavs2021]

Maxi coming back healthy and playing like he did a few years ago would be the simplest solution, but that feels like wishful thinking at this point. He only played 37 games last season and now he's broken down again. Hopefully they get him back on the floor in time to re-evaluate before the trade deadline.

I'm not nearly as worried about the backup center being switchable. You have to get to the playoffs first, and if the Mavs are dropping winnable games due to the Powell/Holmes minutes, it could have a huge impact on their playoff seeing. It might even bump them to a play-in team if they aren't careful. Sure, it would be great if you have a backup you knew could hang in the postseason, but if Lively can't do that as well I feel like they're screwed either way. The matchup matters as well. Imagine they end up playing the Wolves without a legit backup because they were worried about smallball. That could get ugly.

Of course, it all depends on the assets and cap flexibility they have to give up to obtain this proposed backup. I was on the Gafford train all offseason, but with the recent discussions of re-signing DJJ I'm not sure they can afford someone that expensive. Guys like Richards and Goga seem to be more in line with what they could pay. I'd happily give up Powell+2nds or even Hardy for someone like that. That type of deal doesn't rule out the Kleber-dream either.

Nah. You are not giving up Hardy, because you chose to sign Powell, but not Goga or Bamba. That would be just doubling down on your own gross negligence again. And yes I call it that. Nobody could have seen Lively coming and this team is 1-5 without him. We´d have headed straight for the lottery 

What if Hardy is a Reggie Bullock and doesn´t get going until January? What if it´s just a sophomore slump. That´s just as likely as last season´s shooting being a fluke.

[Chicagojk]

Its interesting because last season Timmy (and Powell for that matter) had one of the better D ratings and one of the better net ratings on the team.  The Luka/Kyrie/Timmy lineups had a D rating of 111 and a net of +13 on a bad team.  That is from a sample of 226 minutes, which would be in the top 10 of 3 man lineup samples for this season.

So why are the numbers so wildly different this season?  Did both players get worse?  Is the lineup construction killing them?  Is there a ton of noise in these stats?

Its easier to see in Powell's case.  He has lost a step.  He is playing in smaller lineups.  He is being asked to play drop coverage instead of switching.  His on/off sub last season (at least early on) was McGee, who was a disaster on/off.

Regardless, I agree with the premise that you want at least three defenders on the court with Luka (or Kyrie).  That still leaves roughly 30 minutes of court time when one of Luka or Kyrie are off.  When everyone is healthy, I could see a minutes distribution something like:

Luka 36
Kyrie 32
Exum 32
DJJ 28
Lively 28
GWill 28
Timmy 28
Green 16
Powell/Holmes 12

I am not disagreeing with you and I want Exum on the floor more than not.  He has been great.   His past injuries concern me though.  So I would be in favor of cutting his minutes back in the regular season 4-6 minutes to see if we can keep him healthy.   Maybe those minutes go to Green.  I would like to see Green try to disrupt offenses full court too like Exum has done.    He needs to disrupt though.   A lot of times he shows he is active but the player he is guarding eventually gets to their spot and makes positive plays.

[loki]

As for the emboldened sentence, I SO, SO, SO HOPE the Mavs can get matched up with Minnesota in a 7-game series. Imo, there will be no easier out in all of the playoffs. What Minnesota is trying has (in my opinion, obviously) a ZERO percent chance of working in the playoffs. I am less worried about Minnesota than any other Western Conference team, and it's the specific and obvious tactic of spreading them out and NOT trying match size with them that will have them out in the first round.

I agree there's a good chance Minnesota will flame out. The Gobert special. I just don't know if the Mavs in particular have the personnel to punish them.

[KillerLeft]

I agree there's a good chance Minnesota will flame out. The Gobert special. I just don't know if the Mavs in particular have the personnel to punish them.

I'm pretty confident in a 7-game series. 

WAY less confident about tonight.

[loki]

Nah. You are not giving up Hardy, because you chose to sign Powell, but not Goga or Bamba. That would be just doubling down on your own gross negligence again. And yes I call it that. Nobody could have seen Lively coming and this team is 1-5 without him. We´d have headed straight for the lottery 

What if Hardy is a Reggie Bullock and doesn´t get going until January? What if it´s just a sophomore slump. That´s just as likely as last season´s shooting being a fluke.

I agree they missed some opportunities for better signings than Powell, but what's done is done. I think if they can deal Hardy and get better, they should do it. To be honest, I wasn't a huge fan of the Hardy pick from the beginning. He got my hopes up towards the end of last year, but when the current roster gets healthy he'll likely be getting DNP's.

Hardy's ceiling seems pretty limited to me. Undersized gunners who can't defend aren't exactly a hot commodity. The Mavs recognized that and tried to shoehorn him into more of a playmaking role starting in summer league, which was a complete failure. Maybe he remembers how to shoot at some point this season, but even then he's just a smaller THJ.

[Chicagojk]

Mavs did wind up signing Brandon Williams to a two way and releasing Dexter Dennis. It looks like Williams has been putting up good stats with the Orlando G league team. He is the same age (24) as Dennis and has bounced around teams for several years. He is a 6’1 guard. Sort of weird we seem interested in these smaller guards.

We never have a good g league team. Sort of confused why we don’t look for size and youth if you don’t care about your G league team. For instance Darius Bazely is available. He may never pan out but fits the prototype teams want.

I know nothing about Williams but the teams inability to really care about two ways makes me question their moves.

https://youtu.be/iFKs2DaeoGg?si=OS5MbN7M0NwWBvE3

[Winter]

Mavs did wind up signing Brandon Williams to a two way and releasing Dexter Dennis.  It looks like Williams has been putting up good stats with the Orlando G league team.  He is the same age (24) as Dennis and has bounced around teams for several years.  He is a 6’1 guard.  Sort of weird we seem interested in these smaller guards. 

We never have a good g league team.  Sort of confused why we don’t look for size and youth if you don’t care about your G league team.  For instance Darius Bazely is available.  He may never pan out but fits the prototype teams want.

I know nothing about Williams but the teams inability to really care about two ways makes me question their moves.

https://youtu.be/iFKs2DaeoGg?si=OS5MbN7M0NwWBvE3

The Mavs do this sometimes... fall in love with an undersized point guard. I keep thinking they see something that isn't the stats, but I have no idea what it is. I mean Williams looks fine on paper, but so does Dennis. 

Maybe good point guards aren't easy to replicate in the stat sheet. Maybe he's got great game management or some other hidden quality that requires an eye test. I wish I knew what it was they liked about him.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

No Luka tonight. Makes last night sting a little more.

[KillerLeft]

I think they probably just believe he's a better PG/player than Dennis.

Size isn't everything, especially at point guard. It's nice, but so is quickness, speed, handles, passing, vision, IQ, improvisation, leadership, shooting, etc.

I don't know this guy's game, but sometimes the smaller guy is better.

[WillE]

I think they probably just believe he's a better PG/player than Dennis.

Size isn't everything, especially at point guard. It's nice, but so is quickness, speed, handles, passing, vision, IQ, improvisation, leadership, shooting, etc.

I don't know this guy's game, but sometimes the smaller guy is better.

His game log from his stint with Portland at least shows some impressive numbers, so I guess we should simply trust the front office.

---

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/...n-williams

[MrGoat]

Mavs did wind up signing Brandon Williams to a two way and releasing Dexter Dennis.  It looks like Williams has been putting up good stats with the Orlando G league team.  He is the same age (24) as Dennis and has bounced around teams for several years.  He is a 6’1 guard.  Sort of weird we seem interested in these smaller guards. 

We never have a good g league team.  Sort of confused why we don’t look for size and youth if you don’t care about your G league team.  For instance Darius Bazely is available.  He may never pan out but fits the prototype teams want.

I know nothing about Williams but the teams inability to really care about two ways makes me question their moves.

https://youtu.be/iFKs2DaeoGg?si=OS5MbN7M0NwWBvE3

Not a big deal but I probably would have rather it been Brown rather than Dennis. Dennis showed more flashes than Brown

[SwisherPrice]

If tonight's rosters were pooled together and ranked, Minnesota might have the top 5-6 players 

In no order:
Ant
KAT
Gobert
Reid
McDaniels
Conley

[Chicagojk]

I think they probably just believe he's a better PG/player than Dennis.

Size isn't everything, especially at point guard. It's nice, but so is quickness, speed, handles, passing, vision, IQ, improvisation, leadership, shooting, etc.

I don't know this guy's game, but sometimes the smaller guy is better.

Mavs had some rough stretches in blowouts where they brought the reserves in and no one could run an offense.  You could say it is a roster design issues that outside of you current starting backcourt when healthy (Luka, Kyrie and Exum) no one else can run an offense.  It sounds like Kidd wanted another guy to play this role and fill in when there are injuries.  I would prefer a more long term developmental plan.  It sounds like this is a short term fix to fill an immediate short term hole.  

I was thinking about Grant per my earlier point that I dislike him at center with no other size.  Maybe Kidd is searching for a role for him because his playing time could be limited when everyone is healthy?  So he is seeing if they can find minutes at the 5.  I think the answer so far is the Mavs have better options.  But we will see.  Someone is going to lose minutes when everyone is healthy and so far this year Jones he has been better.

[KillerLeft]

I was thinking about Grant per my earlier point that I dislike him at center with no other size.  Maybe Kidd is searching for a role for him because his playing time could be limited when everyone is healthy?  So he is seeing if they can find minutes at the 5.  I think the answer so far is the Mavs have better options.  But we will see.  Someone is going to lose minutes when everyone is healthy and so far this year Jones he has been better.

I assume he's looking for options to play smaller and more versatile in the front court (with better shooting/spacing to boot) because Kleber's status is such a question mark. Williams isn't going to block shots like Kleber did, but he's probably a little harder to move, mass-wise, and is FOR SURE a better rebounder than Kleber. In every other way, there's reason to believe Williams can function in a similar capacity. I think it's super smart. 

We KNOW (not suspect, KNOW) that the big guys become less playable in 7-game series against the best offenses/defenses during the playoffs. I think Lively will hold up ok (other than being a rookie), but I actually don't know that. He might get iso'd to DEATH and be unplayable. You know who won't? Williams, Kleber (if healthy) and (hate to admit it) Morris. 

Best case scenario, the Mavs have THREE guys who can space, run and defend in the playoffs, and that's on top of whatever they can get from Lively and Powell (might be a LOT from Lively, we'll see) playing a more traditional center role. 

I think preparing for all of THAT is why we're seeing Williams at the 5, and I'm thrilled that it's happening.

[Chicagojk]

I assume he's looking for options to play smaller and more versatile in the front court (with better shooting/spacing to boot) because Kleber's status is such a question mark. Williams isn't going to block shots like Kleber did, but he's probably a little harder to move, mass-wise, and is FOR SURE a better rebounder than Kleber. In every other way, there's reason to believe Williams can function in a similar capacity. I think it's super smart. 

We KNOW (not suspect, KNOW) that the big guys become less playable in 7-game series against the best offenses/defenses during the playoffs. I think Lively will hold up ok (other than being a rookie), but I actually don't know that. He might get iso'd to DEATH and be unplayable. You know who won't? Williams, Kleber (if healthy) and (hate to admit it) Morris. 

Best case scenario, the Mavs have THREE guys who can space, run and defend in the playoffs, and that's on top of whatever they can get from Lively and Powell (might be a LOT from Lively, we'll see) playing a more traditional center role. 

I think preparing for all of THAT is why we're seeing Williams at the 5, and I'm thrilled that it's happening.

I have to disagree with Williams at the 5 without a shot blocker.  I think it is going to be terrible.   I am really struggling with Williams.   I was very early that he would be perfect here when the season ended.  I was driving that bus.  I didn't expect his hot shooting to continue to begin the season, but I am really surprised with two things so far.   Boston fans told us he was not strong defending the quick wings, but I was really expecting him to provide toughness (he has brought some of this) but also be a great team defender.  So far the opposite has been true.  Slow rotations and loss of focus has really hurt the defense.  Second, I did not think he would be a great rebounder, but I thought he would be better.  I would call him a poor rebounder this year.  This team needs as many people attacking the boards as possible.  The 3-4 rebound games playing 30 minutes a game are way to often.   Especially when you have a center who contests a lot of shots.

Iztok had some thoughts on the rotation when Kyrie returns via X.  Two of his posts below.  

https://twitter.com/iztok_franko/status/...7742780779

I hope they play Grant as the 4, and decide on Powell or Holmes as backup 5. At least until/if Maxi comes back.
Opponents strength on offense was weaker in recent period so some of the improvement might be fools gold, but I dont think activity is (turnovers, deflections...).

I think they can survive on D with DJJ as the 4, next to Exum, Lively and Luka in the starting 5.
I just don't like smallish 4 guard lineups off the bench and minutes with THJ, Curry or Hardy as primary point of attack defenders.
But I was wrong before so let's wait & see

[KillerLeft]

I have to disagree with Williams at the 5 without a shot blocker.  I think it is going to be terrible.

I hope they play Grant as the 4, and decide on Powell or Holmes as backup 5. At least until/if Maxi comes back.
Opponents strength on offense was weaker in recent period so some of the improvement might be fools gold, but I dont think activity is (turnovers, deflections...).

I think they can survive on D with DJJ as the 4, next to Exum, Lively and Luka in the starting 5.
I just don't like smallish 4 guard lineups off the bench and minutes with THJ, Curry or Hardy as primary point of attack defenders.
But I was wrong before so let's wait & see.

So, I don't think you're crazy or wrong about any of the above or anything like that. It just seems like you're stuck in one way of thinking. Bigger isn't always better. Sometimes, it's the worst way you can play/think. 

Williams FACTUALLY can be good at the 5 - IN THE RIGHT SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES. There will come a time when what the team needs most from the 5 is running and shooting. That will happen, as it does each and every year in the modern NBA. There will be matchups where Lively is just too big and too slow (especially as he ages). 

I'm not suggesting that they play Williams at the 5 exclusively, or even nightly. I'm saying that what I think I  see is Kidd giving him some burn at that position to make sure he CAN play there when needed. He's learning the rotations, how to play differently in transition, etc, etc, etc. It's not just a matter of putting combos of guys out there - they have to have LEARNED the positions they're playing.

I get the distaste over what Williams has given so far, I really do. He isn't shooting well enough, he's trying to do WAY TOO MUCH with the ball on offense, and his defense, while highly effective at times, hasn't been consistent enough for him to be the defensive leader we thought he'd be. But, it's 30 games! I haven't given up. I still think he'll find his groove here, and might even get his starting job back.