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[Winter]

I would think you can run a rotation where you have at least two of those three on the floor at any given time so I don’t think you need Green or Hardy to run the second unit at all unless we have injuries like we do now. We also have Seth who can help out with that in a pinch. I think Exums coming out as made both Green and Hardy very expendable, the only question is how much value do they have now.

Yeah, I don't disagree with that at all. I'm thinking Hardy's "potential" may be more marketable in terms of an actual return, but it may just come down to salary if we're trading with a bottom feeder.

[Chicagojk]

I have not given up on Green or Hardy. Green is more important this season. I think with the emergence of Exum it has taken some pressure and responsibility off Green. He is not very good running an offense despite being a good passer. He is also not a guy who breaks down defenses like Exum.

Defense is the key for him. He needs to be better there. Needs to be a pest. If he can do that then he can be an energy guy who can also hit open threes. Minutes are tight with everyone healthy. I think a lineup with green, Exum and Green fits well together.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

11/25 LAC:   Green off the bench
11/28 HOU:  Green starts in place of DJJ
12/1 MEM:    Green starts in place of Luka
12/2 OKC:    Green inactive

Just re read this and this is kind of worded funny. Are you saying he started the houston game because DJJ was hurt? Because DJJ came off the bench and played 34 minutes.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I have not given up on Green or Hardy.  Green is more important this season.  I think with the emergence of Exum it has taken some pressure and responsibility off Green.  He is not very good running an offense despite being a good passer.  He is also not a guy who breaks down defenses like Exum. 

Defense is the key for him.  He needs to be better there.  Needs to be a pest.  If he can do that then he can be an energy guy who can also hit open threes.  Minutes are tight with everyone healthy.  I think a lineup with green, Exum and Green fits well together.

I don’t think moving either at this point would be a matter of giving up on them but more so an acknowledgment that the things we were hoping to get from them are addressed elsewhere on the roster. If the playoffs started today, neither player would sniff the floor most likely because other players have outperformed them. I still think teams could see value in both players but we may not have room for the value they bring.

Right now the playoff rotation if this team is healthy would most likely be:

Luka
Kyrie
Exum
DJJ/Williams
Lively

Hardaway
DJJ/Williams
Maxi

As a top 8.

 If we feel that is a solid playoff rotation wouldn’t it make sense to see if you can bolster it by moving some sort of Holmes/green/Hardy/SRP package? There’s still value in waiting until this offseason to make a move but if you can add someone you feel is a playoff level rotation player while not touching your top 8 I think that’s a pretty good reason to entertain moving those players.

[mvossman]

Mixing Green, THJ and GWill in with the other five gives you lots of workable solutions.  To Chicago’s point, if we could ever also mix in Maxi (but not as the center), that would be potentially strong too.  But what really needs to happen is finding a defensive center to mix in off the bench.  That would solve a lot of our bench lineup issues.

Its not ideal, but it seems to me like the closest thing we have to a backup defensive center right now is Holmes.  He has one of the best defensive ratings on the team (although its mostly garbage time) and is getting 13 rebounds per 36.  I would like to see some second unit run with a Holmes/Williams backcourt.

[Winter]

Its not ideal, but it seems to me like the closest thing we have to a backup defensive center right now is Holmes.  He has one of the best defensive ratings on the team (although its mostly garbage time) and is getting 13 rebounds per 36.  I would like to see some second unit run with a Holmes/Williams backcourt.

What is Holmes doing that prevents him from being that guy? I'm not sure why he hasn't played more.

[SwisherPrice]

Since THJ is probably untouchable now, Hardy and Green may be the only players that might get any kind of interest from other teams (now how much interest is debatable). Shop them and package them to see if you can get that forward upgrade.

[mvossman]

What is Holmes doing that prevents him from being that guy? I'm not sure why he hasn't played more.

I don't know.  He might be terrible in higher leverage situations.  We have not seen enough to know.  His offense has been bad.  He spent most of his career with a true shooting in the upper 60s, but its 51 right now.  But I would argue that rebounding and defense are more important, especially on the second unit.  If we are going to play drop coverage next to an undersize PF, Holmes is probably a better call than Powell, who is not being put in a position to succeed.  I'm still holding out hope for Maxi.

[SleepingHero]

[dirkfansince1998]

Luka's three point shooting is on another level this season. Based on volume and shot difficult one could make the case that he has been a top three shooter in the league this season.

[KillerLeft]

Things like this are why conclusions based solely on what we see during games are usually flawed:

https://x.com/miss77ela/status/1739488142736925179?s=20

I thought Williams played pretty well last night off of the bench...ON DEFENSE. Still think he's "doing too much" on offense, making for some painful-to-watch moments in the paint, but on defense he made a difference last night. 

But, the real thing is basically that this team is doing well this year because they like playing with each other again. As a fan, that's easy to see if you look/care, but it might be worth substantially more than we think. Everyone knows this team is built around Luka, but when I see them huddled around Williams for the pre-game hype, even on the first night he loses his starting job...well, I think maybe he's having an impact we don't fully appreciate.

It's one thing to be the team leader, but it's another thing to be the team leader on a team that's WINNING.

[fifteenth]

Things like this are why conclusions based solely on what we see during games are usually flawed:

https://x.com/miss77ela/status/1739488142736925179?s=20

I thought Williams played pretty well last night off of the bench...ON DEFENSE. Still think he's "doing too much" on offense, making for some painful-to-watch moments in the paint, but on defense he made a difference last night. 

But, the real thing is basically that this team is doing well this year because they like playing with each other again. As a fan, that's easy to see if you look/care, but it might be worth substantially more than we think. Everyone knows this team is built around Luka, but When I see the them huddled around Williams for the pre-game hype, even on the first night he loses his starting job...well, I think maybe he's having an impact we don't fully appreciate.

It's one thing to be the team leader, but it's another thing to be the team leader on a team that's WINNING.

What a great point! They had to get those immaculate vibes back.

[mvossman]

Things like this are why conclusions based solely on what we see during games are usually flawed:

https://x.com/miss77ela/status/1739488142736925179?s=20

I thought Williams played pretty well last night off of the bench...ON DEFENSE. Still think he's "doing too much" on offense, making for some painful-to-watch moments in the paint, but on defense he made a difference last night. 

But, the real thing is basically that this team is doing well this year because they like playing with each other again. As a fan, that's easy to see if you look/care, but it might be worth substantially more than we think. Everyone knows this team is built around Luka, but When I see the them huddled around Williams for the pre-game hype, even on the first night he loses his starting job...well, I think maybe he's having an impact we don't fully appreciate.

It's one thing to be the team leader, but it's another thing to be the team leader on a team that's WINNING.

Yep.  I think a big focus this offseason was to improve the locker room and so far it looks like a success.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I stand corrected on Kidd not wanting to bring Williams off the bench. A healthy Kyrie in place of Hardaway in the starting lineup would lead to a really nice rotation.

That was also the best defensive effort I’ve seen the Mavs give all season. Starting to get a little more optimistic about how much this team can compete West.

[Winter]

I stand corrected on Kidd not wanting to bring Williams off the bench. A healthy Kyrie in place of Hardaway in the starting lineup would lead to a really nice rotation.

That was also the best defensive effort I’ve seen the Mavs give all season. Starting to get a little more optimistic about how much this team can compete West.

I hope the defensive effort translates to other teams, but I think we need to be realistic on who we were playing. Essentially teams can put all their defensive weight on the two Phoenix stars, and force some really weak left-overs to make plays. It's not working for them.

Still our rotations look better and all of our wings look involved.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I hope the defensive effort translates to other teams, but I think we need to be realistic on who we were playing. Essentially teams can put all their defensive weight on the two Phoenix stars, and force some really weak left-overs to make plays. It's not working for them.

Still our rotations look better and all of our wings look involved.

You have to stop someone in the playoffs and having Lively, DJJ and Exum on the court is the most promising way to do that.  We don't platoon our bench so Kidd basically has to manage substitutions that positively answer the following questions (but not necessarily all at once):  

1.  Can good Josh give you Exum like productivity when he's in for Exum?
2.  Is Killer correct and GWill's D is good enough to cover bigger bench wings/PF's when DJJ is sitting?
3.  Can THJ's O cover the few minutes one of Luka or Kyrie sits in a playoff game?
4.  Do we have an answer for the non-Lively minutes at the five?

In theory one through three should be fine if everyone is healthy.  Four worries me (which is why I keep harping on this).  I just think this rotation makes a ton of sense for the here and now if we can better cover the non-Lively minutes.

[fifteenth]

...

3.  Can THJ's O cover the few minutes one of Luka or Kyrie sits in a playoff game?

...

I see a lots of mentions of Exum's D. Are we sleeping on his O? 

The offense goes through Timmy when Luka sits (and Kyrie is hurt) and I think, "man, I'd have the ball in Exum's hands and leave Timmy in his highly productive off the ball role." 

It makes wonder whether, 1) Timmy needs to have his role leveled up when the bench crew is in so that he stays happy, or 2) Coach doesn't see the part time PG in Exum that I see, or 3) Coach Fif should stick to U10 soccer. 

My "should have the ball (to run the offense)" rankings look like this:

1) Luka
2) Kyrie
3) Exum
4) ???

Too bad Hardy isn't an obvious add to this list. 

Am I off on all this?

[omahen]

You have to stop someone in the playoffs and having Lively, DJJ and Exum on the court is the most promising way to do that.  We don't platoon our bench so Kidd basically has to manage substitutions that positively answer the following questions (but not necessarily all at once):  

1.  Can good Josh give you Exum like productivity when he's in for Exum?
2.  Is Killer correct and GWill's D is good enough to cover bigger bench wings/PF's when DJJ is sitting?
3.  Can THJ's O cover the few minutes one of Luka or Kyrie sits in a playoff game?
4.  Do we have an answer for the non-Lively minutes at the five?

In theory one through three should be fine if everyone is healthy.  Four worries me (which is why I keep harping on this).  I just think this rotation makes a ton of sense for the here and now if we can better cover the non-Lively minutes.

I think the answer for three is more complex. THJ is too expensive to play just those minutes Luka or Kyrie will not. But his defense is not good enough next to Luka and Kyrie. He is a good player and has an excellent offensive season. Cash in while we can. I realize it might be difficult to do that at TDL, so lets hope he can stay as productive and doesn't get injured for whole season. But, if Mavs want to be a contender, they need a better defender in his minutes while not sacrificing much of the offense he brings. But, offense has never been Mavs problem.

I saw an interesting thought on one of the podcasts in past week or so (don't remember which exactly it was). Assuming Mavs finish season solidly, get in the playoffs and win a playoff series or perhaps two. Is the best way forward cashing in on Irving? He has a decent contract and some team desperate for a star might be enamoured enough to give up some serious assets (the assumed result implies Kryie was playing well). His fit offensively next to Luka is great, but it will be always difficult to build a solid defense with those two on the court. And he sort of doesn't fit the timeline. 

The problem is, I wouldn't want to trade him just for some assets, I would want a good player back. And there is probably a limited number of teams Kyrie would be happy to go to. I am not interested in overhyped guys like Reaves and/or role players like Vando. I would want a legit starter either from the team Kyrie would be going to or third team. 

Here is an interesting idea - Kyrie for Lukas son in Phoenix (I guess Mavs would need to throw in more assets to help Phoenix with flexibility). Phoenix is more or less stuck and time is working against them. They also desperately need a PG that has no problem playing off-ball. Booker is a great player and he also showed he is capable of playing defense if he wants to. Could be a great fit next to Luka.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I see a lots of mentions of Exum's D. Are we sleeping on his O? 

The offense goes through Timmy when Luka sits (and Kyrie is hurt) and I think, "man, I'd have the ball in Exum's hands and leave Timmy in his highly productive off the ball role." 

It makes wonder whether, 1) Timmy needs to have his role leveled up when the bench crew is in so that he stays happy, or 2) Coach doesn't see the part time PG in Exum that I see, or 3) Coach Fif should stick to U10 soccer. 

My "should have the ball (to run the offense)" rankings look like this:

1) Luka
2) Kyrie
3) Exum
4) ???

Too bad Hardy isn't an obvious add to this list. 

Am I off on all this?

I had a really successful U-10 soccer team once upon a time.  Now that kid is 29.

Funny thing is Exum brings the ball up a lot when Luka is in the game.  But, I think it is mainly to relieve pressure and Luka still ends up being the initiator most of the time.  I think Exum is best in a secondary role taking advantage of things Luka and Kyrie create (versus trying to create on his own).  But, that doesn't mean I want THJ trying to create.  I tend to agree that I'd rather have Exum creating a look for THJ (and others) than have Timmy create solely for himself (and no others).

[sefant]

I think the answer for three is more complex. THJ is too expensive to play just those minutes Luka or Kyrie will not. But his defense is not good enough next to Luka and Kyrie. He is a good player and has an excellent offensive season. Cash in while we can. I realize it might be difficult to do that at TDL, so lets hope he can stay as productive and doesn't get injured for whole season. But, if Mavs want to be a contender, they need a better defender in his minutes while not sacrificing much of the offense he brings. But, offense has never been Mavs problem.

true, impact wise Tim is still pretty questionable. 7th best defense without Tim on the floor, and 30th best with Tim does that. On offense Tim is a victim of diminishing returns. The offense will still be good with a Tim replacement in 8 out of 10 cases because Luka and/or Kyrie is around. There is a ""maximum limit"" how good an offense can improve. 

Exum should still totally get 30 min+ even if Kyrie is back, and Tim has to lose minutes. Its not even a question. Then you have Green coming back at some point too. Kidd better not screw this up, and take away Exum minutes in favor of Tim. Going to be interesting what happens if everyone is healthy.

Tim is basically killing the 3 pt defense the most. Luka does it as welll, but he is Luka. And Luka does well helping with size hence the positive impact on 2 pt defense.

• Tim is all red
  
• Grant is all red apart from the mins early on with Green. He deserved to be benched.
  
• DJJ seems to need Luka the most, else he is sinking the offense. DJJ lineups without Luka: 97.03 Ortg and -25 net (113 min)
  

Luka and Tim are basically the worst players on the roster by on/off 3 pt defense. Hence a complicated fit, if they can't fix the perimeter mess with Tim.

opp 3 pt shooting

Luka on: 37.8 %
Luka off: 33.4 % (4 %)

Tim on: 37.9 %
Tim off: 34.9 % (3 %)

Kyrie on: 35.0 %
Kyrie off: 37.5 %


Luka + Kyrie: opp 3 pt shooting 33.74% 
Luka + Tim: opp 3 pt shooting 38.69%

Tim is 2nd worst in terms of 3 pt defense, and worst in terms of 2 pt defense.


The defense around Luka/Kyrie is not that far off from contender worthy (top 10 range) if you exclude Tim. At least if you look at the defense of specific lineups.