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[Chicagojk]

The Morris thing is really weird for me. I mean it is the last spot on the roster and it is non-guaranteed, so it is a small thing. I would literally prefer 50 other players than him though. Taj Gibson just resigned in Washington. I would gladly take him over Morris. After an offseason where I was on board with almost everything they did or tried to do, this is one that just feels weird. Maybe they just made the decision that Morris fit in well last year on the bench and could be easily waived if a trade came available during the season. I also wonder if this was a part of the trade last year. A sort of wink wink that he would be on the roster the following season. Seems unlikely but Morris’ comment after the season was also very odd about taking care of business the following year.

[mvossman]

There are just too many nights when Tim gives the team absolutely nothing.  He's an average player, who plays good sometimes, but 20-25% of the time he's just so damned bad that it's almost an automatic loss.  It's really hard to overcome when a guy plays half the game and scores 2-5 points and doesn't impact the defense or team rebounding positively. And it's not like he's setting up his teammates. If we can't find someone more consistent to take his minutes we'll be out of the playoffs again.

I have seen this argument a lot, and I am curious if Tim has any more variance in his outcomes than other high volume shooters who score the majority of their points form the 3.  The closest to Tim we have had on this team lately is probably Bullock, and he had at least as much variance as Tim.

But more importantly, Tim provides value beyond what his shooting percentage was for the night.  He provides more spacing (other than our superstars) than anyone else on the team.  He takes more 3s and has a quicker release than anyone on the team, with a very good percentage doing it.  That provides more gravity to allow the superstars to do their thing.  Even when he is not hitting his shot, he is still providing offensive value.

[KillerLeft]

I have seen this argument a lot, and I am curious if Tim has any more variance in his outcomes than other high volume shooters who score the majority of their points form the 3.  The closest to Tim we have had on this team lately is probably Bullock, and he had at least as much variance as Tim.

This is the exact, right question, and spoiler alert: he does not. That's how it goes with all of those catch and shoot specialists. ALL of them. 

Someone once argued that Duncan Robinson got HIS percentages by shooting roughly 40-45% NIGHTLY, so I tracked it and his next four games were like 0-5, 0-9, 1-7 and 0-9. 

It's always the guys we watch every night we think are "inconsistent."

[ItsGoTime]

Just as an exercise, I went back and looked at the 2021 UFA class to see how good/bad Timmy's contract looks in comparison.  For a metric, I used EPM estimated win value across the last two years since the contracts signed compared to the average yearly salary.  Tim had a total win value of roughly 8 and a yearly salary of roughly 19 mil.  Here are the other UFAs:

Kawhi.  44 mil, 11 wins.  He has played 53 games in two years.  The metric says he is lower value, but I'm guessing we would all take him over Tim
Paul.  30 mil, 19 wins.  More valuable by the metric, but not sure that will apply to last 2 years of his contract
Lowry.  28 mil, 12 wins.  Draw
Derozan.  28 mil, 22 wins.  Better.  I preferred this to Timmy at the time, but who knows how that would have worked with Luka
Conley.  23 mil, 17.  Better
Founier.  18 mil, 4 wins.  Worse
Norman.  18 mil, 4 wins.  Worse
Din.  18 mil, 14 wins.  Better
Rose.  15 mil, 2 wins.  Worse
Doug.  14 mil, 0 wins.  Worse
Oubre.  13 mil, 7 wins.  Better
Olynk.  12 mil, 7 wins.  Better
Holmes.  12 mil, 2 wins.  worse
Jackson.  11 mil, 6 wins.  Better
Burks.  10 mil, 10 wins.  Better
Bullock.  10 mil, 2 wins.  Worse
Green.  10 mil, 1 win.  Worse
Caruso.  10 mil, 8 wins.  Better
Noel.  9 mil, 0 wins.  Worse
Kemba.  9 mil, 0 wins.  Worse
Theis.  9 mil, 1 win.  Worse

Tim is middle of the pack, and this sample includes his only major injury he has had in his career.  The point of this is to point out how expensive UFA players are.  If you are not one of the top destination markets, this is a really strong argument to put a lot of focus on the draft, because its where most value is going to come from.  It is also a strong argument to hold on to the good players you draft because the alternative free agent cost is big.

I can't tell you how much I loathe the market value argument. There are winners and losers in the offseason, the losers use market value in their defense. That's the most simple way I can explain my disdain.

[mvossman]

I can't tell you how much I loathe the market value argument. There are winners and losers in the offseason, the losers use market value in their defense. That's the most simple way I can explain my disdain.

The point of that list was not so much to exclaim we were a winner or loser.  It was to show that most free agency moves are losers.  That is why we have been asset poor for so long, because we have generally ignored the draft and focused on free agency when we are not a destination market.

[omahen]

So it is official now

https://www.mavs.com/morris-re-signs/

[WillE]

So it is official now

https://www.mavs.com/morris-re-signs/

But why did it take so long?

[Chicagojk]

Dame on Kyrie

https://x.com/kyriecenterig/status/17042...60311?s=46&t=iwQP5yZoJF3Ulzfb9MH7Cg

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Not surprised at all. THJ’s performance last year as a whole was not better than Green’s as a whole IMO. Green also has the benefit of possible upside where THJ is who he is. However, the statement I made was not a comparison of the 4 players.

THJ has always been an odd fit, even in the RC years where even you said he was not that good off the bench. It’s because of him only being a good contributor if a list of things go his way and are set up for him. It’s as if we have to build the team around him, and he’s not good enough to build around. It’s not as bad as KP, because KP more or less demanded we build around him, but it’s like unto it.

Ya, this board generally inflates THJ.  I had him valued at $12m/yr type player; a listing recently set him at $10m/yr.  When you break down his game as a SF, he's a below average defender, and a horrible rebounder (for a SF).  On the plus side, he's a streaky good shooter.  Consistently you can count on him for 20pts when Luka and/or Kyrie aren't on.

The more and more I evaluate this roster, I think we need Tari Eason.  Holmes for KPJ/Eason works under the CBA.  HOU saves $35.3m by dumping KPJ.  If you subtract Holmes salary and cut KPJ, Eason's 3 year contract is only at $11.8m, and we'd have control of his next contract.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

I mean, if Houston really wants KPJ gone that badly that they will include Eason, of course we should do that deal. Colour me skeptical. It’s more likely they know what they have in Eason. If the rotation there looks something like Sengun, Jabari, Brooks, Jalen Green, FVV. Landale, Eason, Tate, Cam, Amen off the bench. They have  some seriously talented young guys. If it’s Holmes for KPJ and Eason we need to send an asset. Not even sure if the trade is legal anyway. If it’s THJ in place of Holmes I think they still want something back. Maybe a lottery protected pick? I value Eason as a mid to late lotto pick. I agree with those who think he has All-NBA defense potential. He would look sick next to Josh Green, Omax and Lively. That said, maybe we think we have our own Eason-in-Waiting in Omax and the FO would see him as redundant.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I mean, if Houston really wants KPJ gone that badly that they will include Eason, of course we should do that deal. Colour me skeptical. It’s more likely they know what they have in Eason. If the rotation there looks something like Sengun, Jabari, Brooks, Jalen Green, FVV. Landale, Eason, Tate, Cam, Amen off the bench. They have  some seriously talented young guys. If it’s Holmes for KPJ and Eason we need to send an asset. Not even sure if the trade is legal anyway. If it’s THJ in place of Holmes I think they still want something back. Maybe a lottery protected pick? I value Eason as a mid to late lotto pick. I agree with those who think he has All-NBA defense potential. He would look sick next to Josh Green, Omax and Lively. That said, maybe we think we have our own Eason-in-Waiting in Omax and the FO would see him as redundant.

Great points, and I agree.  IMO, Eason is on the projection to become OG.

The problem is at SF/PF, Eason is buried behind Brooks, JSJ, and Thompson.  Then he's fighting with Tate and Whitmore.  HOU is rich in SF.

They want KPJ gone and rumor is they'll give draft capital.  Well, I think Eason could be that capital.  Again, for HOU this rids them of KPJ and saves them $35.3m.

[Chicagojk]

I saw the Mavs are bringing Dexter Dennis to camp to try to earn a two way spot. If AJ Lawson keeps his spot, then we should have one spot available. Factoring in Miles keeping his.

Here are the players competing for the final spot:
Greg Brown
Dexter Dennis
Jelly Walker
Joe Wieskamp


I thought we also invited the high flyer from the summer league team but don’t see him listed.

So who do you think gets the last spot?

[Chicagojk]

I saw the Mavs are bringing Dexter Dennis to camp to try to earn a two way spot.  If AJ Lawson keeps his spot, then we should have one spot available.  Factoring in Miles keeping his.

Here are the players competing for the final spot:
Greg Brown
Dexter Dennis
Jelly Walker
Joe Wieskamp


I thought we also invited the high flyer from the summer league team but don’t see him listed.

So who do you think gets the last spot?

Interesting writeup by Mavsdraft prior to the draft on Dexter Dennis.

https://mavsdraft.com/dexter-dennis-scouting-report/

[sterlingmallory]

I saw the Mavs are bringing Dexter Dennis to camp to try to earn a two way spot.  If AJ Lawson keeps his spot, then we should have one spot available.  Factoring in Miles keeping his.

Here are the players competing for the final spot:
Greg Brown
Dexter Dennis
Jelly Walker
Joe Wieskamp


I thought we also invited the high flyer from the summer league team but don’t see him listed.

So who do you think gets the last spot?

My money is on Jelly Walker as Cuban is a big fan

[Chicagojk]

https://x.com/mavsfilmroom/status/170564...11017?s=46&t=iwQP5yZoJF3Ulzfb9MH7Cg

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https://x.com/mavsfilmroom/status/170564...51379?s=46&t=iwQP5yZoJF3Ulzfb9MH7Cg

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https://x.com/mavsfilmroom/status/170564...99128?s=46&t=iwQP5yZoJF3Ulzfb9MH7Cg

[Chicagojk]

https://x.com/mavsfilmroom/status/170565...78152?s=46&t=iwQP5yZoJF3Ulzfb9MH7Cg

[omahen]

The plan to try and start Lively and OMax is "great" news for Green, who is negotiating his extension Basically saying they don't see him as a starter.

[mvossman]

https://x.com/mavsfilmroom/status/170564...11017?s=46&t=iwQP5yZoJF3Ulzfb9MH7Cg

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https://x.com/mavsfilmroom/status/170564...51379?s=46&t=iwQP5yZoJF3Ulzfb9MH7Cg

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https://x.com/mavsfilmroom/status/170564...99128?s=46&t=iwQP5yZoJF3Ulzfb9MH7Cg

I like what I'm hearing.  Rookies are getting court time and we are going to try a lot of things at center.  Not sure who else makes sense in the starting lineup other than Green, especially when he is talking about Timmy being 6th man.

[mvossman]

The plan to try and start Lively and OMax is "great" news for Green, who is negotiating his extension Basically saying they don't see him as a starter.

I doubt they are coming out of the gate starting two rookies.  I focus more on the first quote where he said they will try different combinations with their core three (Luka, Kyrie and Williams).  It does sound like Green does not have a guaranteed starting spot.

[Chicagojk]

OMAx is probably the better player now but Lively probably has the better chance of starting…even if he may need time. Throw him out there 6 minutes with Luka and he may get 3 buckets just by knowing where to go. Then again he may get 3 fouls in 4 minutes.

I can’t see them starting both though…one is probably unlikely. Maybe both earn those spots during the year but for a team who wants to win, I think bringing OMAx off the bench is probably likely.