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[omahen]

I agree that on the whole, Hardaway was better under Carlisle than he has been under Kidd, but I feel like you can say that about Kleber, DFS, Powell and honestly, even Luka. I think Carlisle is just a flat out better tactician and therefore better at playing to the strengths of his players. If Kidd is an improvement in any area, it’s probably helping players to expand their games/roles, and that’s good, but unfortunately comes at the cost of maximum efficiency, especially when ALL of the players are trying to do more.

In Hardaway’s case, I’m surprised people feel this way today, because while he did struggle the first year under Kidd (post injury) he was actually really good in the back half of last season, and with better defense. I honestly don’t believe the problem with moving him was that nobody wanted him, but that the Mavs were trying to force the McGee deal into every offer they made involving THJ, and they of course were also trying to acquire some very specific things in exchange. I don’t believe the goal was “get rid of him at all costs” like it was with McGee, and I’m glad, because he can actually help this team.

I think it is obvious Mavs didn't try to move him at all costs. What I don't agree is that he can help this team. I just don't see the (good) fit. I think his defense looked better because others were even worse. But Mavs are not changing the Luka and Irving thing and as good as THJ defense might have looked, the overall defense was a disaster. And, he was part of that overall defense.

[KillerLeft]

I think it is obvious Mavs didn't try to move him at all costs. What I don't agree is that he can help this team. I just don't see the (good) fit. I think his defense looked better because others were even worse. But Mavs are not changing the Luka and Irving thing and as good as THJ defense might have looked, the overall defense was a disaster. And, he was part of that overall defense.

Well, I certainly agree that he's not a fit to start next to those two, and there will probably be a lot of games where it doesn't make sense for him to close. That was probably the thinking behind:

A) Wanting to move him
B) The Thybulle offer
C) bringing Curry in to replicate some of what THJ does, but in a cheaper, more overtly "off the bench at lower minutes" kind of way

But, I personally think it's a sizable leap from there to "he can't help this team." THJ off the bench (where he kind of finally learned how to thrive at times, last year) is a situation that can be good for him and the team. I think we're all assuming that Green will start. Idk, maybe we shouldn't. Some of the national stuff has had THJ starting, but I kind of chalked that up to them not being as plugged in as we are with the local team. However, if Green isn't as up to this as many of us believe, then yeah, we'll probably wish THJ was a better-fitting player. If Green IS ready, then THJ will be in a role that I do like for him on this team, despite him possibly being able to play an even bigger role on a team where he fits a bit better, if that makes sense.

[surfpuckmd]

I would say that Kidd tried to use him differently than Carlisle did, which resulted in a worse result. Carlisle correctly recognized that THJ is best used as a spot up shooter where his quick release and high jump shot enables high amount of attempts at an above average percentage, unlike slow releasing guys like Maxi and DFS. As soon as you want THJ to do more than that, his efficiency plummets. Since there was plenty of data about that before Kidd started in Dallas, it is a big question why Kidd tried someting that was proven as not really great before. Imho,  Carlisle was good in recognizing the strengths and limitations of his players and put them in positions where they contributed at best. But since the team was limited, so were the results. At the end of the day, you need more than just a bunch of one dimensional guys. 

Kidd on the other hand, recognized the limitations of Mavs plays and the need for more skills in specific roles. But, the mistake was to try to use the players in roles they were not able to play. Everything went right in first Kidd season as a lot of players had performances of their careers in that playoffs run. Most importantly, Mavs had three players able to create for themselves and others, something Mavs didn't remedy ever since. Unfortunately, that successful run might have blinded Mavs from the reality of what they really have, which strike hard the very next season, along with a disastrous offseason. Perhaps Mavs just didn't have any other choice but ask THJ to do more on-ball after Brunson was gone and no replacement was brought instead of him. The problem of third creator will continue for Mavs, unless Green and Hardy make significant steps forward. 

THJ can be a solid player in right environment. Problem is, as we have discussed here for a long time, that he doesn't fit next to Luka and Kyrie. Even though his defense improved in last season, Mavs unfortunately need way above average defenders next to their stars. Something, THJ is just not able to bring. Again, Mavs will be facing tough dillemas where to put THJ. Offensively, his best plays are coming of playing next to Luka, where he gets best catch and shoot opportunities and he contributes in spacing the floor greatly. But, you can forget about any kind of great team defense playing him next to Luka and Kyrie. If you play him of the bench, he will be far less efficient on offense. But, since he is on the roster, Mavs will have to play him instead of some other options that are better fits. Green is a better defender and fits far nicely next to Luka and Kyrie in the starting line-up. Hardy and Curry can both do more with the ball (way more efficient than THJ) and are better fits coming from the bench, even though they are worse defenders.

It seems like THJ doesn't have a market now. At least not one that wouldn't require assets. So, what is the best way forward:
a) recognize THJ doesn't fit on the team as it is and play better players in the respective roles? THJ value would plummet but results will likely be better (and some younger guys will have more minutes to develop) or
b) play THJ despite the wrong fit. Offense will be great and he will put up good numbers, but results will likely be worse, as defense will be bad (and some younger guys will get less developmental minutes). At some point there might be someone that needs more offense who would find value in him. 
c) eat the bullet and trade him despite it requires some assets. Example like THJ+2027 for Capela (as he is a center that was most often mentioned as potentially available). Option "a" with a better center at the cost of 2027 pick.

One thing to note. Value of some offense first guys really plummeted. Oubre averaged over 20 ppg last season, and it seems he can't get more than vet min. A very similar player like Fournier was "exiled" in New York, because the coach thinks they can have better results without him (he chose the option "a" from the above). NY can't find a willing taker for Fournier for two years now.

I think Hardaway fits fine off the bench as the 2nd offensive option when either Kyrie or Luka are resting.  He also fits well if either Kyrie or Luka miss a game for whatever reason-  in that case, he'll take more shots and average closer to 16-18 ppg.  His shooting, decent defense and professionalism are all valuable in the NBA.  I realize it became a media talking point that the Mavericks were looking to trade THJ this off-season.  I'm not sure that means the Mavericks really wanted to trade him.  I think it's also possible we just have an owner who can't filter what he says to the media and sometimes just blurts things out to be interesting.  

I think his contract is very fair.  Max Strus received a 4-year, $63 million dollar contract.  I think THJ is clearly a better player than Strus although a few years older.   The fact that we didn't trade THJ this summer doesn't mean no team would have liked to trade for him.  I think a team like the Magic would have loved to add THJ rather than sign Joe Ingles for $11 million a year.

I believe we'd gladly trade THJ for an upgrade on the roster should the opportunity arise.  I think he's probably the most likely player to be dealt with our 2027 first if a good player becomes available.  I also think Josh Green will become the clear starter this coming season at SF.  I think we'll have minutes off the bench for both Jaden Hardy and THJ.  Seth Curry is no longer a decent rotation player and won't take minutes from THJ unless Jason Kidd really is blind.  

I don't think Kelly Oubre's situation has anything to do with THJ's value.  NBA executives obviously talk and have hurt Oubre's value around the league.  Presumably, he's either an attitude problem or a really bad teammate to have so little value this off-season.  It seems the same thing happened to Christian Wood.  Hardaway Jr. doesn't have that issue.

[omahen]

What I am affraid of "bench" THJ is, that he is much worse (looking at efficiency) than "starter" THJ next to Luka (and Kyrie). I think Hardy or Curry might not be just cheaper but also actually better in that role, where a bit of creation is required. THJ is just bad when he is asked to create something. I think his efficiency really drops in this case. I think the bench role, meaning only one of the stars is playing, requires some creation next to them. Unless again the plan would be to play THJ next to either Curry or Hardy and one of the stars. But defense would again be awful in this case.

[omahen]

I think Hardaway fits fine off the bench as the 2nd offensive option when either Kyrie or Luka are resting.  

Thats the whole point. He doesn't really, as he is terribly inefficient. Vast majority of his shots are coming from someone creating for him and when he doesn't, he is just bad at it. His EFG is almost 60 % when shooting without dribbling and it drops to even below 40 % (which is horrible) when he takes more than 1 dribble. His strength is that he is able to take and hit shots at good percentage even when he is not completely open. If he doesn't need to dribble. So, you either play him next to one of the stars and three defenders (a very one dimensional offense) or you play him next to two guards capable of creating (all of those guys on Mavs are bad defenders) and you will have bad defense. Neither is good.

Tim Hardaway Jr. | Dallas Mavericks | NBA.com

[surfpuckmd]

Thats the whole point. He doesn't really, as he is terribly inefficient. Vast majority of his shots are coming from someone creating for him and when he doesn't, he is just bad at it. His EFG is almost 60 % when shooting without dribbling and it drops to even below 40 % (which is horrible) when he takes more than 1 dribble. His strength is that he is able to take and hit shots at good percentage even when he is not completely open. If he doesn't need to dribble. So, you either play him next to one of the stars and three defenders (a very one dimensional offense) or you play him next to two guards capable of creating (all of those guys on Mavs are bad defenders) and you will have bad defense. Neither is good.

Tim Hardaway Jr. | Dallas Mavericks | NBA.com

That's a fascinating statistic.  I didn't realize the discrepancy was that dramatic.  

In that case, I suppose he'll have to always play with 2 creators.  I think a Luka, Jaden Hardy and THJ lineup could outscore their opponent even if they'd be poor defensively.  We'll see if Exum or Josh Green can fill the role of secondary creator as well.  

Hopefully, the new assistants can help Jason Kidd figure out winning lineups.

My biggest disappointment from this off-season is that the Mavericks failed to secure a former head coach to be a lead assistant to Kidd.  That should not have been difficult to accomplish.  It's possible though that Kidd resisted that as he didn't want his possible successor in the locker room.

I still believe THJ is somewhere between the 3rd through 5th best player on our roster.  I think we should trade him only for an upgrade.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Interesting piece. Of course we can argue ad nauseam about the methodology that put some very interesting names on the list. Still, the bit about THJ shines some light why Mavs can't find a taker for him. From the piece:

In 2022-23, Tim Hardaway Jr. averaged 14.4 points and 3.5 rebounds on 40.1 percent shooting (38.5 percent from three) while appearing in 71 games for the Dallas Mavericks, earning $19.6 million for the campaign. According to Real Value, those contributions were worth $9.6 million, meaning our metric believes Dallas overpaid Hardaway Jr. by roughly $10.0 million. Hardaway Jr. is a solid player, an outside shooter with athleticism who can get hot from three from time to time, but he’s too inconsistent of a sniper to be beloved be the advanced metrics. He also doesn’t contribute much outside of his three-point shooting, which isn’t even elite.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/most-overpai...-all-time/

Ha!  I keep stating this!  I put THJ's value at $12m.  Whenever looking at trades you have to look at their value, not contract.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Fair assessment, he hasn’t been the player he was under Carlisle for a while now. Also a very suspect fit at SG now that we have Irving locked up alongside Luka. Unfortunately he doesn’t appear to have a lot of value around the league otherwise he would have been traded already.

Looking back the extension was a blunder. Very unfortunate. I didn’t think it would end like this given they even were able to frontload his contract and his play right before the new deal.

Definitely a blunder, but I wanted Lonzo, which would have been more of a blunder.  IMO, SG is the easiest position to fill for THJ-like production.  Unless they're a superstar, I don't see reason to sink money into an average SG.

[mvossman]

Interesting piece. Of course we can argue ad nauseam about the methodology that put some very interesting names on the list. Still, the bit about THJ shines some light why Mavs can't find a taker for him. From the piece:

In 2022-23, Tim Hardaway Jr. averaged 14.4 points and 3.5 rebounds on 40.1 percent shooting (38.5 percent from three) while appearing in 71 games for the Dallas Mavericks, earning $19.6 million for the campaign. According to Real Value, those contributions were worth $9.6 million, meaning our metric believes Dallas overpaid Hardaway Jr. by roughly $10.0 million. Hardaway Jr. is a solid player, an outside shooter with athleticism who can get hot from three from time to time, but he’s too inconsistent of a sniper to be beloved be the advanced metrics. He also doesn’t contribute much outside of his three-point shooting, which isn’t even elite.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/most-overpai...-all-time/

This metric is severely flawed in my opinion.  According to it, Klay, Wiggins, Hayward, Barnes, Timmy, Middleton, Conley and Adams were not worth the MLE last year.  Some of that was due to missing time, but some of those guys had productive seasons.  Klay played more minutes than Timmy and is rated lower value.  I would be good with a one for one trade.

It looks like the metric is based primarily on simple boxscore stats.  In fact in the writeup on half the folks on the list they have to explain why their metric does a poor job.  The exclaim the limitation of advanced stats, but what they really mean is the limitation of boxscore stats.

Its really hard to do salary evaluation for NBA.  Due to scarcity, player value jumps very quickly once you get past min production.  Its hard to get that right.  For example, the LEBRON metric is a decent advanced stat that does better than advanced boxscore stats, but its player dollar evaluation is a joke.  It does not scale properly having many of the best NBA players not even worth their max contracts (including Luka).

Timmy has definitely been overpaid in the past, and he probably was not worth 19 mil last season, but I would not use this metric to pin down his estimated value.

[mvossman]

Thats the whole point. He doesn't really, as he is terribly inefficient. Vast majority of his shots are coming from someone creating for him and when he doesn't, he is just bad at it. His EFG is almost 60 % when shooting without dribbling and it drops to even below 40 % (which is horrible) when he takes more than 1 dribble. His strength is that he is able to take and hit shots at good percentage even when he is not completely open. If he doesn't need to dribble. So, you either play him next to one of the stars and three defenders (a very one dimensional offense) or you play him next to two guards capable of creating (all of those guys on Mavs are bad defenders) and you will have bad defense. Neither is good.

Tim Hardaway Jr. | Dallas Mavericks | NBA.com

Didn't we field the best offense in the history of the NBA with essentially Luka and 4 spot up shooters?  I can see the argument for not relying on that for our first unit, but that should be just fine for bench units.

I mean we can probably survive some Luka/Kyrie/Timmy (last year was +13)

We can also add some secondary playmaking without Kyrie such as Luka/Green/Timmy (last year was +14)

Or turn it around with Kyrie/Green/Timmy (last year was +12)

Or how about all 4 on the court together (last year was +21)

I will be one of the first guys to mention that there is a lot of noise with lineup data, but at least last year it didn't seem like we suffered that much with Timmy playing with Luka and/or Kyrie.

[omahen]

This metric is severely flawed in my opinion.  According to it, Klay, Wiggins, Hayward, Barnes, Timmy, Middleton, Conley and Adams were not worth the MLE last year.  Some of that was due to missing time, but some of those guys had productive seasons.  Klay played more minutes than Timmy and is rated lower value.  I would be good with a one for one trade.

It looks like the metric is based primarily on simple boxscore stats.  In fact in the writeup on half the folks on the list they have to explain why their metric does a poor job.  The exclaim the limitation of advanced stats, but what they really mean is the limitation of boxscore stats.

Its really hard to do salary evaluation for NBA.  Due to scarcity, player value jumps very quickly once you get past min production.  Its hard to get that right.  For example, the LEBRON metric is a decent advanced stat that does better than advanced boxscore stats, but its player dollar evaluation is a joke.  It does not scale properly having many of the best NBA players not even worth their max contracts (including Luka).

Timmy has definitely been overpaid in the past, and he probably was not worth 19 mil last season, but I would not use this metric to pin down his estimated value.

I don't think the valuation is that off. You decided to take one season data to compare their values. Obviously the season by season data fluctuate based on many factors and data from one season clearly doesn't represent the overall value of the player. It just represents the value for that season. I think it is pretty obvious the result of a single season needs interpretation exactly because of that fluctuations. Everyone knows Wiggins is a better player than THJ. But, he missed more than half of last season, which greatly impacted his value calculation for that single season.

A bit more explanation of the players you mentioned. Text under Klay seems off, as if they accidentaly copy pasted wrong text under it. He was paid almost 40 mil, not 30 mil as they state in the text. Also, his stats in last season doesn't indicate a value of just 8.7 mil, compared to production and availability of other players. Barnes production last season was evaluated at a bit over 15 mil, which is very close to what he actually earned and quite on par compared to THJ production (THJ is valued at 10 mil). Wiggins value (11 mil) is greatly reduced because he was missing so much time last season. Hayward missed a lot of time (again) and his estimated value based on that and his production in last season is quite correctly at 8.8 mil. Conley production last season was valued at 12 mil, which is again quite ok considering his overall production, especially in the Utah "half" of the season. Adams missed half the season, which also greatly impacted his overall value.

I totally agree this calculation doesn't represent the exact dollar figure a certain player was worth. But it does serve as an indication of a value and as s useful comparison between players which is easy to understand to everyone. Which is basically the purpose of the article. The purpose was not to create an ultimate advance stat covering everything. Which is not possible anyway.

[IamDougieFresh]

It will become evident that THJ has to go very quickly if they don't move him before the season starts. Green, Hardy and OMax are going to need those minutes. They are all going to kill it this season.

[mvossman]

I don't think the valuation is that off. You decided to take one season data to compare their values. Obviously the season by season data fluctuate based on many factors and data from one season clearly doesn't represent the overall value of the player. It just represents the value for that season. I think it is pretty obvious the result of a single season needs interpretation exactly because of that fluctuations. Everyone knows Wiggins is a better player than THJ. But, he missed more than half of last season, which greatly impacted his value calculation for that single season.

A bit more explanation of the players you mentioned. Text under Klay seems off, as if they accidentaly copy pasted wrong text under it. He was paid almost 40 mil, not 30 mil as they state in the text. Also, his stats in last season doesn't indicate a value of just 8.7 mil, compared to production and availability of other players. Barnes production last season was evaluated at a bit over 15 mil, which is very close to what he actually earned and quite on par compared to THJ production (THJ is valued at 10 mil). Wiggins value (11 mil) is greatly reduced because he was missing so much time last season. Hayward missed a lot of time (again) and his estimated value based on that and his production in last season is quite correctly at 8.8 mil. Conley production last season was valued at 12 mil, which is again quite ok considering his overall production, especially in the Utah "half" of the season. Adams missed half the season, which also greatly impacted his overall value.

I totally agree this calculation doesn't represent the exact dollar figure a certain player was worth. But it does serve as an indication of a value and as s useful comparison between players which is easy to understand to everyone. Which is basically the purpose of the article. The purpose was not to create an ultimate advance stat covering everything. Which is not possible anyway.

I did misread the Barnes one, and it would make sense that the Klay one is some kind of typo as that is the most egregious.  My points are this:

1. If you are looking for a good overall rating of an NBA player, there are much better options than this.  As far as I know, the best available to the public are EPM and DPM.  They do a much better job of capturing a players overall impact on the court.

2. If you are looking for a decent estimate of player dollar value, I don't think this is very accurate.  There is another one out by Holinger that is also boxscore driven.  Its notorious for being wildly off on predicting free agent signings. I think part of the problem is that there are different markets.  There are rookie contracts, there are early extensions and there are max contracts signed with significant surplus value.  There is also the difference between RFA and UFA markets.  The reality is that free agency is the most expensive market to operate in, unless you are one of the few destination markets that can attract surplus max (or in some cases min) contracts.  When comparing Timmy's contract to high performing rookies, RFAs, and surplus max contracts, his contract looks like a significant overpay.  When you compare it to other UFA, it does not look that bad.  If you look at the rest of his UFA class, he was probably at least average.  In my mind, if you are representing a player value, it should be what his value would be on the open market, and I think in most cases these kinds of estimates are baking in the max and rookie guys, greatly depressing what actual UFA value is.

[ItsGoTime]

THJ is not what we want on the team anymore. The trio of Green, Hardy and Curry can very easily cover for what we would miss from THJ while adding so much more utility. He really is not the guy you cling to on the roster when you’re trying to win as much as possible.

[KillerLeft]

THJ is not what we want on the team anymore. The trio of Green, Hardy and Curry can very easily cover for what we would miss from THJ while adding so much more utility. He really is not the guy you cling to on the roster when you’re trying to win as much as possible.

Man, I'm part of "we" and I don't agree with this. I do wish they had been able to move him in a deal that made sense, but in a vacuum, I think THJ is the best player of the four next year.

[ItsGoTime]

Man, I'm part of "we" and I don't agree with this. I do wish they had been able to move him in a deal that made sense, but in a vacuum, I think THJ is the best player of the four next year.

Not surprised at all. THJ’s performance last year as a whole was not better than Green’s as a whole IMO. Green also has the benefit of possible upside where THJ is who he is. However, the statement I made was not a comparison of the 4 players.

THJ has always been an odd fit, even in the RC years where even you said he was not that good off the bench. It’s because of him only being a good contributor if a list of things go his way and are set up for him. It’s as if we have to build the team around him, and he’s not good enough to build around. It’s not as bad as KP, because KP more or less demanded we build around him, but it’s like unto it.

[KillerLeft]

Not surprised at all. THJ’s performance last year as a whole was not better than Green’s as a whole IMO. Green also has the benefit of possible upside where THJ is who he is. However, the statement I made was not a comparison of the 4 players.

THJ has always been an odd fit, even in the RC years where even you said he was not that good off the bench. It’s because of him only being a good contributor if a list of things go his way and are set up for him. It’s as if we have to build the team around him, and he’s not good enough to build around. It’s not as bad as KP, because KP more or less demanded we build around him, but it’s like unto it.

Your opinion has always been that he was an odd fit, but that doesn't make it the case. 

I agree, he was rough off the bench for a long time here, but I thought, personally, he did better with that (better than I expected, anyway) last season. 

I think the potential problem is with Green not living up to what he needs to do to keep THJ in a role that makes sense for the team. I don't think the problem is with having THJ on the roster. If Green holds his end up, the 2/3 rotation is going to be in good, good shape, from what I can tell. 

No issue at all with the idea that THJ can/should be exchanged for a player the Mavs need, even if it's someone at his position who fits better. But, around here that thinking becomes "the Mavs obviously need to move on from THJ if they want to win..." (paraphrase of 1,000 sentiments) which is very obviously lazy, icorrect thinking. He's a GOOD player.

[mvossman]

Just as an exercise, I went back and looked at the 2021 UFA class to see how good/bad Timmy's contract looks in comparison. For a metric, I used EPM estimated win value across the last two years since the contracts signed compared to the average yearly salary. Tim had a total win value of roughly 8 and a yearly salary of roughly 19 mil. Here are the other UFAs:

Kawhi. 44 mil, 11 wins. He has played 53 games in two years. The metric says he is lower value, but I'm guessing we would all take him over Tim
Paul. 30 mil, 19 wins. More valuable by the metric, but not sure that will apply to last 2 years of his contract
Lowry. 28 mil, 12 wins. Draw
Derozan. 28 mil, 22 wins. Better. I preferred this to Timmy at the time, but who knows how that would have worked with Luka
Conley. 23 mil, 17. Better
Founier. 18 mil, 4 wins. Worse
Norman. 18 mil, 4 wins. Worse
Din. 18 mil, 14 wins. Better
Rose. 15 mil, 2 wins. Worse
Doug. 14 mil, 0 wins. Worse
Oubre. 13 mil, 7 wins. Better
Olynk. 12 mil, 7 wins. Better
Holmes. 12 mil, 2 wins. worse
Jackson. 11 mil, 6 wins. Better
Burks. 10 mil, 10 wins. Better
Bullock. 10 mil, 2 wins. Worse
Green. 10 mil, 1 win. Worse
Caruso. 10 mil, 8 wins. Better
Noel. 9 mil, 0 wins. Worse
Kemba. 9 mil, 0 wins. Worse
Theis. 9 mil, 1 win. Worse

Tim is middle of the pack, and this sample includes his only major injury he has had in his career. The point of this is to point out how expensive UFA players are. If you are not one of the top destination markets, this is a really strong argument to put a lot of focus on the draft, because its where most value is going to come from. It is also a strong argument to hold on to the good players you draft because the alternative free agent cost is big.

[dirkfansince1998]

https://twitter.com/ClutchPoints/status/...5179932802

Definition of a fake tough guy. No clue what kind of mentality he is supposed to bring.

[Benskix2]

There are just too many nights when Tim gives the team absolutely nothing. He's an average player, who plays good sometimes, but 20-25% of the time he's just so damned bad that it's almost an automatic loss. It's really hard to overcome when a guy plays half the game and scores 2-5 points and doesn't impact the defense or team rebounding positively. And it's not like he's setting up his teammates. If we can't find someone more consistent to take his minutes we'll be out of the playoffs again.