08-04-2022, 09:43 AM
(08-04-2022, 07:52 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Seems a bit arbitrary. But it is your post, so you are allowed to set your requirements and your scale. Given the minutes crunch (something you talk about a lot) at whatever you want to call the position that isn't a big and isn't a ball handler, another player never seemed like a realistic requirement. Where were the minutes going to come from with Hardaway returning.
EVERYONE AGREES there is a need for a backup ball handler.
Here is how I would look at it. In the playoffs we had four players available to us (plus a fraction of Powell) who had had an EPM in the 80th percentile or above within the last three seasons played.
Luka 96 97 97
DFS 87 82 82
SD 74 88 71
Brunson 85 67 63
Powell 81 72 84.
If you average the three years you get 97, 84, 78, 72 and part of a player at 79.
We've since added the following compared to the team that ended the playoff run
McGee 86 83 89 (Avg 86)
Wood 75 92 96 (Avg 88)
THJ 65 74 87 (Avg 75).
Using the averages, here is old vs. new:
Old New
Luka 97 97
DFS 84 84
SD 78 78
JB 72 75 (THJ)
DP 79 86 (McGee)
Wood 88
That is at least one addition (and Wood at 88 is a significant addition). McGee improves Powell in the desperately needed areas of shot blocking and rebounding without giving up his ability to rim run. Hardaway doesn't replace Brunson's role, but he does replace his points compared to the playoff team.
The next addition doesn't have to replace Brunson. He has to replace the ball handling role Dinwiddie played. But, all he has to do to further improve our playoff team is be better than Green-ikina. I think we are one deal for someone like Kemba, Beverley, Bledsoe or Rose from being significantly better even after losing Brunson for nothing. I personally think this thing can carry all the way to the TDL if need be. We will find that player.
Let's keep the main thing the main thing. The question isn't whether the FO screwed the pooch. The question is whether we are better than the team that lost to GS in the conference finals. I think we have more talent than that team. I think to fully utilize that talent we need another body. It is only August 4th. If we are still having this conversation in late February, then I'll join the chorus.
I have a couple of concerns with this kind of methodology. I think you need to be careful using regular season performance (EPM) to predict playoff performance. Powell had a much higher EPM the last three seasons than Bullock did, but there is no question who was more valuable in the playoffs and who we all expect will be more valuable in future playoffs. We have a good idea what we were getting with Brunson, but no clue on Wood. Also, while McGee playoff numbers are decent, his minutes were low and diminished as time went (a pattern repeated in multiple years).
I also think we need to be careful about projecting Wood EPM on a tanking team to this team. I think there are a wide range of possibilities regarding his performance on this team. And chemistry is important regardless of EPM. We had a good recent example of this with KP. He has a higher EPM than anybody else on this team except for Luka, but a lot of folks think we got better when we traded him away. I hope Wood does not become another KP, but its a possibility.
I'm not ready to say this team is better or even as good as last season because Wood is such a wildcard.