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[Mavs2021]

I don´t get the line of thinking.

You overpay Powell and McGee by a combined $8M per year, that means you can give Brunson $28M a year and you still have the same outcome.

You have a chance that a 25 year old Brunson elevates his game to another level and earn his "overpay". There is no way Powell or McGee were EVER living up to their contract, the moment they signed it.

Overpaying for minimum level players with NO upside is the absolute worst.

[Kammrath]

I'm still not sure what to think of the mid-tier contracts.  I think I'd rather just have max deals (Luka), bargain deals (DFS, Maxi, Bullock) and low end veteran deals (McGee) than I would mid level deals (THJ, Brunson) but that's in an ideal world with options and Mavs usually don't have a lot of those.

This is the way to go.

[cow]

I don´t get the line of thinking.

You overpay Powell and McGee by a combined $8M per year, that means you can give Brunson $28M a year and you still have the same outcome.

You have a chance that a 25 year old Brunson elevates his game to another level and earn his "overpay". There is no way Powell or McGee were EVER living up to their contract, the moment they signed it.

Overpaying for minimum level players with NO upside is the absolute worst.

McGee earned $5m last year and had interest from the Bucks at the salary level we offered him but went with us because he tacked on a year.  Giving him $5.5-6m a year isn't an overpay but I do share the concern about the length of the deal, especially the final year.

[mvossman]

The problem as I see it is that NBA front offices tend to chase trends and you'll get overpays on positions or skillsets that quickly become regrettable.  Most recently it happened with one dimensional shooters (Bertans, Harris, Robinson) because NBA offense became all about the three.  Oddly enough we bucked that trend with Curry only to trade him away and later end up with one of those horrible contracts.  You can also get the perfect storm of a large salary cap bump and severely average players getting massive paydays off of a career year.  Look at our very own Ian Mahimni and contracts signed around the same time as the perfect example  

With JB, you probably want to err on the side of an overpay for a lot of reasons.  Even if his upside is limited, he's not one dimensional and he always puts the work in to improve and then improves.  And as we saw, the likelihood of a return on our investment in him was slim to none and of course we got none.  Dallas typically has to outbid teams in dollars or years (McGee) to get them here.  

I posted about this before but I'm still not sure what to think of the mid-tier contracts.  I think I'd rather just have max deals (Luka), bargain deals (DFS, Maxi, Bullock) and low end veteran deals (McGee) than I would mid level deals (THJ, Brunson) but that's in an ideal world with options and Mavs usually don't have a lot of those.

I agree with this to an extent, but its hard to find enough offense under that model.  Guys that can get you 15 or more a game are going to cost mid-tier money.  There are also a scarcity of max contracts and some are not much better than mid-tier (Tobias, KP, Hayward).  Unless you can get three legit maxes, you are probably going to have to go with one or two of the mid tier guys.  What I will say, is that your mid tier contracts should not be guys that cannot create at a high level for themselves or others.  Guys like Timmy, Fournier, Powell are not the kind of player you want to spend mid tier money on.  Somebody like Dinwiddie who can score and distribution at a high level, or Wood who can create for himself make more sense.

[cow]

I agree with this to an extent, but its hard to find enough offense under that model.  Guys that can get you 15 or more a game are going to cost mid-tier money.  There are also a scarcity of max contracts and some are not much better than mid-tier (Tobias, KP, Hayward).  Unless you can get three legit maxes, you are probably going to have to go with one or two of the mid tier guys.  What I will say, is that your mid tier contracts should not be guys that cannot create at a high level for themselves or others.  Guys like Timmy, Fournier, Powell are not the kind of player you want to spend mid tier money on.  Somebody like Dinwiddie who can score and distribution at a high level, or Wood who can create for himself make more sense.

Agreed.  I touched on it a little bit at the end of my post.  We aren't in the catbird seat and beggars can't be choosers.  I don't love the contract that Jalen got and to keep him, I'm assuming we'd have to raise those numbers significantly.  Even at that, I don't think you'd turn him into a negative assets, maybe neutral at worst and certainly not the level of Tobias Harris (good players, grossly overpaid).

[hakeemfaan]

The problem as I see it is that NBA front offices tend to chase trends and you'll get overpays on positions or skillsets that quickly become regrettable.  Most recently it happened with one dimensional shooters (Bertans, Harris, Robinson) because NBA offense became all about the three.  Oddly enough we bucked that trend with Curry only to trade him away and later end up with one of those horrible contracts.  You can also get the perfect storm of a large salary cap bump and severely average players getting massive paydays off of a career year.  Look at our very own Ian Mahimni and contracts signed around the same time as the perfect example  

With JB, you probably want to err on the side of an overpay for a lot of reasons.  Even if his upside is limited, he's not one dimensional and he always puts the work in to improve and then improves.  And as we saw, the likelihood of a return on our investment in him was slim to none and of course we got none.  Dallas typically has to outbid teams in dollars or years (McGee) to get them here.  

I posted about this before but I'm still not sure what to think of the mid-tier contracts.  I think I'd rather just have max deals (Luka), bargain deals (DFS, Maxi, Bullock) and low end veteran deals (McGee) than I would mid level deals (THJ, Brunson) but that's in an ideal world with options and Mavs usually don't have a lot of those.

Most teams that win titles have two legit studs. So you have to pay accordingly.  If you don’t then you have to hit on studs who got locked in to lesser contracts. 

I have ragged on Cuban for his stinginess.  Honestly that is not who I am as a person.  I have never told another man how to spend his money. Even if it is the owner of my fav team.  He bought the team. He gets to decide how he wants to spend money. My issue is Cuban’s delusion. If he just admitted that he can’t keep up with the Balmers of this world, and ran it like a small market team with a lot of emphasis on scouting, hoarding picks, trading players one year early if they know they don’t want to get into a bidding war, I would fully be on board with it. 

The issue with Cuban though is that he is neither here nor there. He still thinks of himself as a big spender and that is why a neophyte GM was hired purely to recruit another star.  The correct thing would have been to hire a GM who can identify bargains and talent and grind behind the scenes. However that is not appealing to Cuban. So the franchise too is neither here nor there. That’s what has been happening since our title.

[cow]

The issue with Cuban though is that he is neither here nor there. He still thinks of himself as a big spender and that is why a neophyte GM was hired purely to recruit another star.  The correct thing would have been to hire a GM who can identify bargains and talent and grind behind the scenes. However that is not appealing to Cuban. So the franchise too is neither here nor there. That’s what has been happening since our title.

Hiring Nico might be a great decision down the line but it was way too risky considering what he knew he had with Luka.  If and when Luka walks, that's going to be one of the bullet pointed reasons.  Winning in 2011 might have been the best and worst thing for this franchise.  Beyond happy for Dirk but it also validated Cuban's believe of being the smartest guy in the room.  He hasn't evolved from how he operated business in the 00s and all the innovation he brought has far been surpassed by other ownership groups.  I also think the average competency of front offices has skyrocketed so you have less suckers to take advantage of and by a lot of indicators, we are now the suckers.  You are also dead on about not needing to spend like the Ballmers of the world but that's why you need to be so successful in every other aspect of talent acquisition.  We are basically the anthesis of GSW who does everything well and spends a fortune.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/nbabet/status/1548409404482940930

Last year the Vegas line was 48.5 wins....down 1 win to 47.5 wins right now and 7th in the West.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

https://twitter.com/nbabet/status/1548409404482940930

Last year the Vegas line was 48.5 wins....down 1 win to 47.5 wins right now and 7th in the West.

Kinda early for these forecasts, especially when the Durant, Mitchell, Irving drama hasn't been settled.

[ItsGoTime]

Kinda early for these forecasts, especially when the Durant, Mitchell, Irving drama hasn't been settled.

Bettors want to bet now, not when the dust settles!

[DanSchwartzgan]

https://twitter.com/nbabet/status/1548409404482940930

Last year the Vegas line was 48.5 wins....down 1 win to 47.5 wins right now and 7th in the West.

I’ll take the over.

[BigDirk41]

As the roster currently sits, I'd say we'll be in the 4-6 range. That being said I hope we make some improvements via trades.

[Hypermav]

THJ - (0) + Wood - (Burke, Brown, Boban and Chriss) - Brunson + (0) + Luka (24 years old) + Green x Pinson / Hardy = 51 wins

Follow the science Vegas.

[ThisIStheYear]

Take the over on principle. If you can’t even put a 50 win team around Luka, an MJ, Lebron, Magic, Bird level player, you are an absolute trash front office.  We should be looking at a minimum of five finals and two or three titles with competent front office work in a top 5 market. There are no excuses.

[Berknip]

https://twitter.com/nbabet/status/1548409404482940930

Last year the Vegas line was 48.5 wins....down 1 win to 47.5 wins right now and 7th in the West.

Maybe I’m blind but no odds for LAL? Are they zero? Ephemeral? Or just not seeing the whole list?

[Hogmelon]

Maybe I’m blind but no odds for LAL? Are they zero? Ephemeral? Or just not seeing the whole list?

PointsBet currently has no odds (2022-23 regular season wins) posted for the Jazz, Lakers, Nets, and Knicks.

[Hogmelon]

I’ll take the over.

So will I, Dan.  And, for now, you can get a 5% "bonus" (by betting $100 to win $105 when the Mavs win more than 47.5 games).

[SleepingHero]

FWIW I think last year's 48.5 win total placed the Mavs 5th best in the league behind UTA, PHX, LAL, and GSW. Nuggets were essentially tied with the Mavs too. So Vegas had the Mavs as a 5-6th seed. 

https://www.oddsshark.com/nba/nba-season...tting-odds

These odds basically place us in the same bracket 4-7th. And I am undoubtedly taking the over.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

https://basketnews.com/news-175305-luka-...ricks.html

[mvossman]

I’ll take the over.

I'm leaning that way too, but I would feel a lot better if we had some kind of reasonable option as the 3rd point guard.  Luka and Din had a combined 30 games missed last season.  That's a lot of minutes where this offense will be like a headless chicken.