AROUND the NBA: MIN Sweeps PHX!

[Benskix2]

Skin color?

You seem like a real piece of shit.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Did we see a ton less timidity last season?  His FGA per 36 was identical to the prior year (just under 9).  He averaged over 25 minutes a game on great efficiency yet still couldn't break 10 points a game.  

Oh, I'll definitely take the over.  He was 12.6 points in the game where he got minutes and the vibes were not immaculate last year.  This year's O is going to be way better. 

And timidity did decline last year in games where he got minutes.  As I posted...in the >25 minute games (when he was in some kind of flow) he took twice as many shots per 36 (10.1) as when he didn't get those minutes (4.8).  So, 8.9 is an average that will go up if you cut out the low minute games as a consistent starter.  

He hits 1.42 points per shot attempt when he gets minutes which is elite for a guard.  So, what do you want to drop that to?  1.25 is still very good and at 10 shots that's 12.5 without any kind of a step forward.  10 points a game is a layup for starter Green.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 1. Your data in the quote above doesn't impress re JG's value. In what you consider his "good" subset, he was a non-factor on offense more often than not (12 games out of 21). That's no recommendation for paying him beyond MLE money, and hints more that he just had a few good games that skewed the averages.
 

You can't have it both ways.  First, its that his numbers only look good when he gets minutes because he only gets minutes because he's playing well.  Then when that doesn't prove to be true, it is "look, he's not really very good in 12 out of 21 games".  The aggregate numbers are still fantastic when he gets minutes despite these games where he doesn't score much.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
But, the MAVS (not me, the Mavs) tried to give his job to Thybulle, who is about three inches higher in the NBA meta than Ntilikina, and are now going out of their way to hint that O-Max could potentially sneak into the starting lineup. That's not what I'd call a clear endorsement of Green.

Come on Killer.  The only thing we "know" about Thybulle is they made him an offer.  Green WAS the starter on the only team where he and Thybulle actually played together.  Who knows what Kidd's cryptic comment was designed to do.  If it was meant to gin up conversation, it has certainly accomplished that.  I don't think they will start two-rookies to start the regular season...hard stop.  When Kidd first said that he might start one rookie (in real games), I thought he might mean OMax.  I've since re-listened to what he said and I actually think it will be Lively if it is either of them.

Dan, I know you think it's smart to play O-Max with the starters and Green in the second unit, and I actually liked your logic when you made that point. BUT, once Green isn't a starter (if that actually happens) he must then compete, both directly and indirectly, with THJ, Curry AND Hardy (who the current management team actually drafted, not a holdover from Donnie and Voulgaris like Green) for any type of role, whatsoever.

I also think it would be smart (some day) to start Green and Omax and bring GWill off the bench.  His contract isn't so big that that isn't a possibility once OMax is ready to take a starting spot.  In fact, fully realized OMax may be more of a threat to GWill than he is to Josh. 

Once the Mav's settle into a rotation, they will keep two of these three guys and Maxi on the court at all times.  The spot that is open is the offensive spot that opens when Kyrie or Luka sits.  That is where THJ, Hardy and Seth are battling.  The team will need defense in the second unit whether it comes from OMax or Green.  I don't think you can lump Green in with those guys because he brings a critical skill they don't possess.  

 

[Jym]

In my ideal world next year, we have Luka/Kyrie/mystery SF/OMax/Lively with Green and Grant as the 2 main guys off the bench
OG is the first guy that comes to mind for that Sf spot but the Raptors are so weirdly reluctant to cash in their players

[ItsGoTime]

Dan is gonna be laughing when Green starts the first game of the season, gets 28 mins and scores 20 points!

[KillerLeft]

Actually, Dan, there were a few Mavs media types reporting that the Mavs were planning to start Thybulle (and Williams, obviously) had Portland not matched. Dameris was one of them, I remember. 

I agree, it’s not a smoking gun or anything, but Thybulle is not a sought after NBA player or even remotely in any universe an established starter. In fact, I personally think Green is already the better player. I think it’s semi-safe to assume the consensus at Mavs HQ disagrees just based on that reporting and the offer itself. 

I’m on your side - I think Green is ready, was ready last year (should’ve taken Bullock’s job once he had that good stretch of 20 games or so) and the Mavs’ near future outlook would surely improve if he proves out as even a rotation player, let alone an effective high minute player. 

I just don’t understand why you’re sooooo confident that’s their plan. It should’ve been the plan last season and wasn’t. I think Kidd is not a fan.

[surfpuckmd]

Actually, Dan, there were a few Mavs media types reporting that the Mavs were planning to start Thybulle (and Williams, obviously) had Portland not matched. Dameris was one of them, I remember. 

I agree, it’s not a smoking gun or anything, but Thybulle is not a sought after NBA player or even remotely in any universe an established starter. In fact, I personally think Green is already the better player. I think it’s semi-safe to assume the consensus at Mavs HQ disagrees just based on that reporting and the offer itself. 

I’m on your side - I think Green is ready, was ready last year (should’ve taken Bullock’s job once he had that good stretch of 20 games or so) and the Mavs’ near future outlook would surely improve if he proves out as even a rotation player, let alone an effective high minute player. 

I just don’t understand why you’re sooooo confident that’s their plan. It should’ve been the plan last season and wasn’t. I think Kidd is not a fan.

I think Dan makes a great argument why Josh Green should start and play starter's minutes for the Mavericks.  I also think you're correct in pointing out that Jason Kidd won't necessarily agree with logic and reason.  The Mavericks including Jason Kidd and Mark Cuban make a lot of provocative statements.  Honestly, they say a lot of dumb things.  Hopefully, there is an assistant coach who will convince Kidd to play his best players this season.  I don't think he always did last year.

[surfpuckmd]

Josh Green reminds me of Justin Anderson.

Maybe defensively although Anderson was built like a linebacker.  Green is a vastly superior shooter to Anderson and a much better passer.  If Anderson could have shot 40 percent on open 3-pointers, he'd still be an NBA rotation player.  

I really had high hopes for Anderson when we drafted him and in his rookie season.  It might be a cautionary tale for all of us with high expectations for our rookies.

[F Gump]

You can't have it both ways.  First, its that his numbers only look good when he gets minutes because he only gets minutes because he's playing well.  Then when that doesn't prove to be true, it is "look, he's not really very good in 12 out of 21 games".  The aggregate numbers are still fantastic when he gets minutes despite these games where he doesn't score much.

" You can't have it both ways. " ...And neither can you (meant matter of factly, not snarky!).

It's a silly debate, frankly, because we are debating stats and what they indicate when sliced thinly. It's easy for you to cherry-pick some you prefer, and for a different cherry-pick to look very different. SSS from so much slicing makes that confusion over the meaning and significance of stat comparisons very easy.

I hope you are right in your view of JG and who he is right now. But I think your confidence is very premature. Let's see how it plays out, because barring injury we'll get a much better answer this season.

[Chicagojk]

Really interested to see how Morey gets out of this Harden mess. Just not a lot of options, but Morey is generally very creative and finds way to get value. The added wrinkle is Morey wants to maintain cap space for next year so he can have one max cap room available. Very tricky.

My favorite hope is Harden winds up in Miami. I just don't know Miami is interested or more importantly, if they have the assets that Morey will be looking for. But Harden in Miami creates another fun storyline behind the two best teams in the East (Boston and Milwaukee).

[DallasMaverick]

You seem like a real piece of shit.

Yeah, sorry.

It was the only similarity I could think of, on the spur of the moment.

[Chicagojk]

That Vassell contract seems high. I really like him. He is one of the guys who when they play the Mavs I feel every shot he takes is going in. But I feel like that contact reflects what they hope he is, not what he is now. Typically, you find more of a middle ground when you extend early for these type of players. But he should continue to get better.

A lot of ifs, but if Wemby is what most think the Spurs have a nice grouping of younger players. Another reason why I am so glad Dallas has invested in youth. Our youth doesn't compete against the Spurs youth, but it does allow us to at least be in the ball park.

[mvossman]

Oh, I'll definitely take the over.  He was 12.6 points in the game where he got minutes and the vibes were not immaculate last year.  This year's O is going to be way better. 

And timidity did decline last year in games where he got minutes.  As I posted...in the >25 minute games (when he was in some kind of flow) he took twice as many shots per 36 (10.1) as when he didn't get those minutes (4.8).  So, 8.9 is an average that will go up if you cut out the low minute games as a consistent starter.  

He hits 1.42 points per shot attempt when he gets minutes which is elite for a guard.  So, what do you want to drop that to?  1.25 is still very good and at 10 shots that's 12.5 without any kind of a step forward.  10 points a game is a layup for starter Green.

I hope your right.  I tend to fall into the group of guys that question the cause/effect of Greens better numbers when +25 minutes.  Your entire argument is banking on him being a completely different player when he gets those minutes, and I don't think a 33 game sample is big enough to come to that conclusion.

[Jym]

I hope your right.  I tend to fall into the group of guys that question the cause/effect of Greens better numbers when +25 minutes.  Your entire argument is banking on him being a completely different player when he gets those minutes, and I don't think a 33 game sample is big enough to come to that conclusion.

I don't feel like he has to be a "completely" different player to bump up that scoring to 12 to 15 ppg. He just needs the greenlight from Kidd and himself. We'll see if that happens

[DanSchwartzgan]

It's a silly debate, frankly, because we are debating stats and what they indicate when sliced thinly.  

They were sliced thin in an attempt to answer a question that both you and Omahen posed.  It seemed a fair question.  Does he get more minutes only because he's playing well.  My eye test answer was no.  I didn't perceive Kidd was giving him minutes or taking them away based on what was happening that particular night.  Unfortunately, people aren't accepting my stats, so they certainly won't be accepting my eye test observations.  Once you strip out the noise of games where the uptick is attributable to a star missing the game, there just isn't much left.  

My position is this...

Green is currently our best defender of point of attack guards
Green gets better every year and is still extremely young
Green's efficiency goes UP with additional usage 
Green's ability to pick up his offense when the stars are missing is a strength
Green's willingness to defer to our All-NBA Stars is a good thing

Here are two highlights where Green and Vassell are at their best with freedom to create.  Both are 29 point games (their season highs) where their team's won the game.  Note that Vassell gets this kind of freedom every night as his team was crap.  Green got this kind of freedom four times the entire season.  Frankly Vassell seems a hair bigger and more willing to take self-created 3's.  Green is more athletic and the better defender.  Both show nice mid-range games and both moved the ball well (though Green did more from a creation standpoint while Vassell's assists came after he was freed with a screen.  Frankly, I don't see that much difference between these guys at their best in a similar circumstance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrmtbzI3-I8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMo6Q5ny-gg

[KillerLeft]

Green got this kind of freedom four times the entire season.  

There's the disconnect between where you and non-believers like FGump and Omahen are, right there. They believe he showed his best four times the entire season, despite being "free" to do so any time he stepped on the court. 

I see both sides, but I'm closer to yours. I feel like this is not the debate that matters, however, unless they're actually going to lean on Green this season. If someone could convince me of that, I think a lot of the debates we have around here would get less murky to me in an instant.

[mvossman]

I don't feel like he has to be a "completely" different player to bump up that scoring to 12 to 15 ppg. He just needs the greenlight from Kidd and himself. We'll see if that happens

His FGA per 36 his first 3 years in the league are 7.5, 8.9, 8.9.  To get to 15 ppg, he would have to jump his minutes per game to at least 30, maintain his very high efficiency, and jump his attempts per 36 to 12.5.  That is a 40% increase in attempts.  The reality is that with more minutes and way more volume, its very unlikely he maintains that efficiency so he would likely need to increase his attempts by even more.  That would be a completely different player from an offensive aggression standpoint.

[mvossman]

They were sliced thin in an attempt to answer a question that both you and Omahen posed.  It seemed a fair question.  Does he get more minutes only because he's playing well.  My eye test answer was no.  I didn't perceive Kidd was giving him minutes or taking them away based on what was happening that particular night.  Unfortunately, people aren't accepting my stats, so they certainly won't be accepting my eye test observations.  Once you strip out the noise of games where the uptick is attributable to a star missing the game, there just isn't much left.  

My position is this...

Green is currently our best defender of point of attack guards
Green gets better every year and is still extremely young
Green's efficiency goes UP with additional usage 
Green's ability to pick up his offense when the stars are missing is a strength
Green's willingness to defer to our All-NBA Stars is a good thing

Here are two highlights where Green and Vassell are at their best with freedom to create.  Both are 29 point games (their season highs) where their team's won the game.  Note that Vassell gets this kind of freedom every night as his team was crap.  Green got this kind of freedom four times the entire season.  Frankly Vassell seems a hair bigger and more willing to take self-created 3's.  Green is more athletic and the better defender.  Both show nice mid-range games and both moved the ball well (though Green did more from a creation standpoint while Vassell's assists came after he was freed with a screen.  Frankly, I don't see that much difference between these guys at their best in a similar circumstance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrmtbzI3-I8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMo6Q5ny-gg

I realize there are several different arguments regarding Green going on.  When it comes to Green's value to this team, I think you and I are on the same page.  When it comes to Green's market value next offseason, which should drive extension talk, which is what I think started all this discussion, is where we might be on a different page.  I think Green needs to pull the trigger more, but I am fine with him deferring to the stars when appropriate.  I just don't see him scoring more than 10-12 points a game this coming season, which will likely keep his market value from getting significantly over the MLE.

[ItsGoTime]

There's the disconnect between where you and non-believers like FGump and Omahen are, right there. They believe he showed his best four times the entire season, despite being "free" to do so any time he stepped on the court. 

I see both sides, but I'm closer to yours. I feel like this is not the debate that matters, however, unless they're actually going to lean on Green this season. If someone could convince me of that, I think a lot of the debates we have around here would get less murky to me in an instant.

I don’t really think there is a way to prove that true or untrue. At this point I think games played are going to be the only truth. I don’t feel as strongly as you do about Kidd keeping him down or believing he’s best used off the bench. I’m closer to, I think the starting spot is his to lose, not OMax’s to win mostly because I agree with you that OMax best use position will probably be at that big F spot.

The other rookie, Lively, on the other hand I think he has more of a chance to win the starting position regardless of how Powell plays.

That’s how I see it until regular season games are played (not preseason games BTW).