AROUND the NBA: MIN Sweeps PHX!

[ItsGoTime]

Maybe, but if I had to guess, Fred is probably more of a team player than Siakam.

There is very little doubt in my mind that Ujiri is wrong, I'm just trying to make sense of the quote. There's no sense in calling out the guy you're willing to trade if a team pays Gobert prices. There is a lot more sense in blaming the outgoing player, a Mavs specialty for years!

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

IMO, Ujiri has done a piss-poor job since Kawhi left. He should have gotten a franchise reboot out of Siakom, FVV, and OG (or keep OG and build around OG/Barnes).

[ItsGoTime]

IMO, Ujiri has done a piss-poor job since Kawhi left. He should have gotten a franchise reboot out of Siakom, FVV, and OG (or keep OG and build around OG/Barnes).

I agree, you can also go as far back as getting something for Lowry (he had 2 years after the championship to find something), if anyone could see his decline, it would have been the team.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I agree, you can also go as far back as getting something for Lowry (he had 2 years after the championship to find something), if anyone could see his decline, it would have been the team.

I forgot about Lowry.  Ya, he just keeps letting assets walk.  Lowry, Siakom, FVV, and maybe OG...  insane.  Hint: unless you contend now, move OG at his peak.  He's missed that with Siakom.

[KillerLeft]

I've posted some version of this several times.  People are all the time saying Josh's game is based on confidence.  If that is true, his confidence is based on minutes.  When he gets them, he's a different player.  So much so that his PER 36 numbers are basically worthless.  Below I have split Josh's PER 36 between games where he played 25 minutes or more vs games he played 25 minutes or less.  I picked 25 because his average minutes in these 33 games comes to 31 minutes...the same as Vassell averaged in his 38 games last season.

                Josh PER 36 w>25 Mins       Josh PER 36 w<25 Mins        
PTS           14.4                                   6.83
FGA           10.1                                   4.8
REB            4.2                                    3.2
AST            2.9                                    1.0
FG%          .551                                  .489
3P%          .418                                  .362

He's not the same guy.  When he gets minutes, he puts up shots at double the rate and is more efficient from the field and from distance.  When he gets under 25 minutes, he's the deer in the headlights that so many anchor their opinions to.  The low minutes version of Josh pollutes both his PER 36 numbers and the impression many of us have of what he is.  Josh doesn't need to leap...he needs to replicate what he already does when he plays 25 minutes or more.  He just needs to get those minutes every night.  14/4/3 on fantastic splits with great D is exactly what we want. 

Vassel's PER 36 numbers are better from a scoring standpoint.  He's 21/4/4 but he shoots worse.  His FG% is .439 compared to .551 for Josh.  His 3% is .387 compared to .418 for Josh.  I know, Josh's shooting benefits from playing with better personnel.  But, if you take that position, you have to also say Vassell would never get the same shot attempts here.  He puts up 18 shots per 36.  But if Josh did get 18 shots instead of 10 at a 1.42 PP Shot Attempt, he would be at 25.6 points per game instead of 21.5 for Vassell.  BTW, 1.42 Points Per Shot Attempt for a 22 year old guard?  Are you kidding me?  

BTW, this improvement with more minutes and more shot attempts between low minute Josh and high minute Josh isn't normal.  Most players actually get less efficient as they put up more shots.  He's a gem sitting right in front of us.  I can't believe more people don't see this.

Yeah, I remember you posting this. I buy it, and have said so every time. Unless I'm skimming and missing something, I don't believe it answers my question. 

What has you convinced Jason Kidd is going to give Green the bigger role? Is it just that you assume the data above is undeniable and that he has to see it and agree? Wouldn't this data have argued for Green having a bigger role last season, too? 

I'm ready to see more of Green. I just have this sneaky feeling Kidd isn't. Hope I'm wrong.

[ItsGoTime]

A couple of questions. How many of those +25 minutes are in games without Luka and Kyrie? We all saw he was great as the lead man when stars were out. Definitely looked much different. He will have to learn and get his shots in games with both stars on the court to maximize his potential.

Is it possible his >25 minutes games are when he is playing well and his <25 are when he is not? Did he play less because others had to play or did he play less because he just wasn't particularly impactful in those games? Basically saying, that Green has some good games where he plays a lot and some not so great ones where he doesn't. 

I think answers to these questions really shed the light on who Green really is. We have all watched games and we all saw "passive" Green a lot of times. Green that is just invisible (passive), who doesn't get the ball or even doesn't shoot it always when he could. I don't think you can just take these kind of stats as a proof that Green is great but just needs minutes, without providing the context to why he played less or more. 

I don't think you can simply ignore low number of shots taken and discard it as a consequence of low minutes. We saw and could compare how Hardy plays related to Green. He has zero problems taking his shots even with both stars on the court. Green and Hardy took same amount of shots on average. Green played 25 minutes on average, Hardy played 15 minutes on average. Hardaway played 30 minutes per game and took 12 shots per game, almost twice as much as Green. Green is much closer to guys like Bullock, Dorian or Maxi regarding the number of shots. With the difference, that those guys are really limited in what they can do on the court, know their limits and play within them. Green can do much more than those guys, but there are other reasons why he doesn't take so many shots. I hope he can grow past that and keep his efficiency.

Having guys who are good defenders and can hit an open shot with good efficiency is great. They are worth around MLE. Guys that are paid more are the ones who can do more than just take an open shot here and there. So far, Green only showed flashes he can do more. In order to be worth more, he needs to be consistent. Taking more shots and keeping efficiency. So based on that, Green is worth MLE based on what he showed. In order to get paid more, he needs to show more. One can of course believe, he will be able to overcome whatever barriers he has preventing him to be better. If you believe that, you pay him more. If he reaches his potential, great. If not, you have a bad contract on your hands. 

Or, you can offer max MLE level money. If he doesn't accept the deal, you have the restricted status working for you. If he starts playing like a great two way wing, you can always pay him accordingly. The gamble in this case of course is, that he might take a 15 mil offer now, but gets a 25 mil offer in the summer, while being valued at 20 mil. But somehow, I do prefer this kind of gamble. Personally, I am just not convinced, he can reach a 15+ value valuation.

I don't want to interject much in this discussion cause I find myself between the two points of view (and I don't see your take as hate either, just you trying to be fair), if anything I lean towards Dan's point of view cause I like Green so much, he won me over in a game I attended last year where he was so much everywhere on the court that you couldn't not watch him.

One other question to ask about the stats pulled up is what is the W/L record of the team when he plays the 25+ vs 25- games? Part of that reasoning could be that Luka/Kyrie are not also playing, but I think it's important to know if his better numbers contribute to winning basketball games. That also kinda speaks to confidence. If he is just a player that is gonna pick up the slack when there is a void, well, there is some value to that, but not the kind of value being talked about. I really, really, really hope he figures it out this season (and I really hope we have extended him before it's obvious he has). If he does, Dan shows he could very well be that 3rd scorer guy on the team.

[KillerLeft]

Maybe, but if I had to guess, Fred is probably more of a team player than Siakam.

There were actually a lot of rumblings last year that the team didn't like most of the early-clock shot selection from FVV. Like, a lot. I don't have links or anything, but I remember hearing/reading that frequently before the all star break. 

My read on this is that Ujiri is for sure throwing shade at FVV, his point being "let's see what happens when we actually run our offense." 

Could be wrong though.

[ItsGoTime]

There were actually a lot of rumblings last year that the team didn't like most of the early-clock shot selection from FVV. Like, a lot. I don't have links or anything, but I remember hearing/reading that frequently before the all star break. 

My read on this is that Ujiri is for sure throwing shade at FVV, his point being "let's see what happens when we actually run our offense." 

Could be wrong though.

That shines a lot of light on the subject. When 1 player is playing that way, especially the guy who is supposed to set up the offense, it can for sure have a domino effect.

I remember how much JET changed when Kidd got here, it was the first time I remember him passing the ball on a fast break. Unselfishness breeds unselfishness, the opposite is also true. That doesn't mean it's always the case (players can be mature enough to not let it effect their game/mental state), but as a rule, you can bet on it IMO.

[omahen]

There were actually a lot of rumblings last year that the team didn't like most of the early-clock shot selection from FVV. Like, a lot. I don't have links or anything, but I remember hearing/reading that frequently before the all star break. 

My read on this is that Ujiri is for sure throwing shade at FVV, his point being "let's see what happens when we actually run our offense." 

Could be wrong though.

FVV is also not a natural PG, he is much more of an SG, imho. Which naturally leads to not great offense. Toronto is dreaming about Barnes being a PG. I basically didn't watch Toronto, but the little I have, I have a hard time seeing it. The rumors I saw were that the young guys (Barnes, OG) wanted more shots. This doesn't mean Siakam was necessarily taking bad shots, but there were just too many mouths to feed. And without the real PG, I can imagine there was no one really able to create good looks for others.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

FVV is also not a natural PG, he is much more of an SG, imho. Which naturally leads to not great offense. Toronto is dreaming about Barnes being a PG. I basically didn't watch Toronto, but the little I have, I have a hard time seeing it. The rumors I saw were that the young guys (Barnes, OG) wanted more shots. This doesn't mean Siakam was necessarily taking bad shots, but there were just too many mouths to feed. And without the real PG, I can imagine there was no one really able to create good looks for others.

This.  A good comp for FVV is JET.  Yes, TOR wants Barnes to be a point forward.  I'm not sure Barnes has the skills to play from the point fulltime.

[F Gump]

People are all the time saying Josh's game is based on confidence.  If that is true, his confidence is based on minutes.  When he gets them, he's a different player.....

....I can't believe more people don't see this.

The issue I have with that idea is that the cause-effect is not reliable. Would he know from game to game whether it's slated to be a big minute game or a little minute game, so he would know as he played whether to be confident or not?

I see a couple of real alternative possibilities that may provide better explanations, and there may be more:

1 Josh was getting more minutes when he played well, and less minutes when he was not. So your cause-effect may be completely backwards - ie, his level of play determines the minutes, rather than the other way around. I think this would have been the most likely explanation.

2 Or, when he played more, was it due to injuries (or tanking), and necessity, in which his rotations were increased and his context (the exact players he played with) were altered, creating a different dynamic for him? (And before we say the coach needs to keep doing that to make his game better, we have to wonder if that made the TEAM better, or if it only made Green's stat line better?) Maybe he was used more in games/rotations where someone had to get some extra stats, so he got them? If that is the case, while in one way that could be seen as a positive, in many ways it's not, because it means he is only going to offer strong play if you strip your lineup of talent around him, and that's not a path to winning.

I certainly do agree that Green has to play with more assertiveness if he's to be given a higher dollar deal, but I'm not convinced it will be an automatic result, if the Mavs simply give him more minutes. I want to see more from him first, rather than pay for it and blindly assume he will become what we hope, even though he's never done that before. That latter type of deal-making has led the Mavs to awful deals over the years, one after another.

I'm also wary with him because the 2022-23 season was supposed to be the one where we saw a huge difference in his game, and it didn't happen. The shooting pcts went up, but the MAIN issue of assertiveness -- the willingness to take shots -- stayed the same (9 shots per 36 minutes, in both the prior year and that one). Shyness to take shots, or a focus on only shooting when you get your perfect shot, those almost completely negate the ability to shoot well, because he doesn't offer a threat who has to be game-planned for.

[DanSchwartzgan]

A couple of questions. How many of those +25 minutes are in games without Luka and Kyrie? We all saw he was great as the lead man when stars were out. Definitely looked much different. He will have to learn and get his shots in games with both stars on the court to maximize his potential.

Is it possible his >25 minutes games are when he is playing well and his <25 are when he is not? Did he play less because others had to play or did he play less because he just wasn't particularly impactful in those games? Basically saying, that Green has some good games where he plays a lot and some not so great ones where he doesn't. 

You and FG are basically asking the same things, so hopefully this answers both of you.

1.  12 of the 33 >25 minute games were when we were missing one or more of the lead guards (I'm counting SD's presence as a proxy for Kyrie prior to the trade).  He had six 20+ point games for the season and four of those came with both Luka and Kyrie sitting.  So, there is some correlation between scoring and the availability of stars but not necessarily minutes.  Did missing guys help Josh get minutes?  Of course it did.  But, we were full strength about 2/3's of the instances where Josh got over 25 minutes.

2.  BTW, you seem to infer that Josh having the ability to replace some of the scoring punch when it is missing and defer to our all-NBA guys when they are playing is a bad thing.  I don't see it that way at all.  What is the biggest complaint about THJ?  For me it is the fact that he has this clock in his head that says he has to shoot if he hasn't gotten a shot up in a certain amount of time (quality of the shot be damned).  I DO NOT want my 22 year old occasional starter doing that.  I count it a strength that he can adapt his game like that at such a young age and be what the team needs him to be.  The timidity is very much a 21/22 issue.  We saw a ton less of it last season.

3.  21 of the >25 minute games were at full strength (both Luka and Kyrie or Luka and SD).  There isn't really evidence these happened because he was playing well or more aggressive.  In fact, there are all sorts of low scoring games in this sample.  12 of the 21 games saw him score in single digits including one game where he got 0 points in 28 minutes.  

Back quite a few years ago when I played fantasy basketball (quite successfully), Josh's upcoming season was the kind of 'fat pitch' I'd look for.  An emerging young player who improves every year and whose team traded away the veteran that was blocking him.  If I could find that guy who also got more efficient the MORE he shot (very rare), I would be all over that.  Finding guys like that who can dramatically outplay the round he's drafted in is the easiest way to win your league.  Josh is in a fantastic position and doesn't turn 23 for another month and a half.  The general disbelief in his game shocks me.

[mvossman]

You and FG are basically asking the same things, so hopefully this answers both of you.

1.  12 of the 33 >25 minute games were when we were missing one or more of the lead guards (I'm counting SD's presence as a proxy for Kyrie prior to the trade).  He had six 20+ point games for the season and four of those came with both Luka and Kyrie sitting.  So, there is some correlation between scoring and the availability of stars but not necessarily minutes.  Did missing guys help Josh get minutes?  Of course it did.  But, we were full strength about 2/3's of the instances where Josh got over 25 minutes.

2.  BTW, you seem to infer that Josh having the ability to replace some of the scoring punch when it is missing and defer to our all-NBA guys when they are playing is a bad thing.  I don't see it that way at all.  What is the biggest complaint about THJ?  For me it is the fact that he has this clock in his head that says he has to shoot if he hasn't gotten a shot up in a certain amount of time (quality of the shot be damned).  I DO NOT want my 22 year old occasional starter doing that.  I count it a strength that he can adapt his game like that at such a young age and be what the team needs him to be.  The timidity is very much a 21/22 issue.  We saw a ton less of it last season.

3.  21 of the >25 minute games were at full strength (both Luka and Kyrie or Luka and SD).  There isn't really evidence these happened because he was playing well or more aggressive.  In fact, there are all sorts of low scoring games in this sample.  12 of the 21 games saw him score in single digits including one game where he got 0 points in 28 minutes.  

Back quite a few years ago when I played fantasy basketball (quite successfully), Josh's upcoming season was the kind of 'fat pitch' I'd look for.  An emerging young player who improves every year and whose team traded away the veteran that was blocking him.  If I could find that guy who also got more efficient the MORE he shot (very rare), I would be all over that.  Finding guys like that who can dramatically outplay the round he's drafted in is the easiest way to win your league.  Josh is in a fantastic position and doesn't turn 23 for another month and a half.  The general disbelief in his game shocks me.

Did we see a ton less timidity last season?  His FGA per 36 was identical to the prior year (just under 9).  He averaged over 25 minutes a game on great efficiency yet still couldn't break 10 points a game.  I don't see him getting a ton more minutes, his efficiency may take a dip, and its hard to see him become a truly aggressive offensive player.  If I put the over/under on points per game for him next season, its probably around 10.5.  

To be clear, I'm a fan of Josh Green and I think his fits well with this team.  But the reality is guys that score 10 points a game just don't get paid, and a lot of things would have to go right for him to get significantly above that next season.

[F Gump]

3.  21 of the >25 minute games were at full strength (both Luka and Kyrie or Luka and SD).  There isn't really evidence these happened because he was playing well or more aggressive.  In fact, there are all sorts of low scoring games in this sample.  12 of the 21 games saw him score in single digits including one game where he got 0 points in 28 minutes.

Two things I am seeing in this "Josh just needs more minutes" conclusion that would make me instead really loath to offer him massive money:
1. Your data in the quote above doesn't impress re JG's value. In what you consider his "good" subset, he was a non-factor on offense more often than not (12 games out of 21). That's no recommendation for paying him beyond MLE money, and hints more that he just had a few good games that skewed the averages.
2 As mvossman notes, his track record is NOT one where his timidity went away last season. It's exactly the same. Per-36, he takes 9 shots.
...And the THJ analogy doesn't make JG the solution. What we need is a player who will be aggressive taking shots when they are available to him, and then make them in an efficient manner. We don't get that with THJ, but neither is JG the answer because he passes up possible shots. (And if the answer is that he will have worse efficiency if he shoots more, then that is not a plus for JG. This is why Hollinger placed value in his PER  on "usage.")

In relation to the Vassell deal, I will say again what I have said to the idea that his agents will demand 20M or more a season for him. I wouldn't pay it now, no way in the world. If you think someone else will pay it in the summer because they got Vassell (a different, much better player) a deal starting at 25M, then you trade him (now, deadline, or SNT). At his current level of shooting timidity, he's fun to watch because of all the energy, but he's just not worth numbers like that in what we have seen from him so far.

[DallasMaverick]

Alright. Lots of debate over who Josh Green will become. Also lots of debate about what he'll get paid.

So...

Would you rather have the 10/4/3 version for $12m/yr? Or the 14/5/3 version for $18m/yr?

[Benskix2]

Josh Green reminds me of Justin Anderson.

[DallasMaverick]

Josh Green reminds me of Justin Anderson.

Skin color?

[KillerLeft]

Re: Josh Green. I'm in the top 95th percentile of believers, and I think he's ready to perform. I hope we'll see it this year.

But, the MAVS (not me, the Mavs) tried to give his job to Thybulle, who is about three inches higher in the NBA meta than Ntilikina, and are now going out of their way to hint that O-Max could potentially sneak into the starting lineup. That's not what I'd call a clear endorsement of Green.

Dan, I know you think it's smart to play O-Max with the starters and Green in the second unit, and I actually liked your logic when you made that point. BUT, once Green isn't a starter (if that actually happens) he must then compete, both directly and indirectly, with THJ, Curry AND Hardy (who the current management team actually drafted, not a holdover from Donnie and Voulgaris like Green) for any type of role, whatsoever.

Maybe a month into the season Green finds himself ensconced in a 25-30 minute per night role and is so indispensable that the memory of this conversation seems silly, but I'm telling you I have a sneaky suspicion that some of the decision makers don't see him the way his most hardcore fans do.

[KillerLeft]

Let me put it this way:

One of Green, Hardy or O-Max is not going to have much of a role this season, and I'd bet a lottttt of money O-Max won't be the odd man out.

Either Hardy or Green is going to be glued to that bench on short rotation nights in important games.

EDIT: and that doesn't even factor in how they see Derrick Jones, JR. If they really plan to play bigger, with DJJ/Kleber at the 4 a lot and O-Max stealing minutes at the 3, and THJ is going to play any significant amount of minutes with Luka and Kyrie at all (spoiler alert: he will) then...I think it might be tough to get to 25 minutes for Green.

[KillerLeft]

If it were up to me, Kleber would be penciled in for 20-25 per at the 5, not the 4. Then, I'd have Lively/Holmes/Powell compete for the rest of those minutes - the "not 5-out" minutes. And, on some nights, I'd probably even cut into those with Williams, DJJ or O-Max at small ball 5.

That would free up loads of 4 minutes behind Williams for either DJJ or O-Max.

That, in turn, would free up minutes at the 3 for Green and THJ to soak up. They'd also play some at the 2, of course, when only one of Luka or Kyrie was on the floor.

Then, finally, I'd have a two-man competition between Curry and Hardy (maybe even Exum) for the leftover guard minutes.

Shift everyone down a position, like they're threatening to do, and I'm telling you guys, either Green or Hardy is OUT of the rotation.