AROUND the NBA: Pat Bev Suspended 4 Games Next Season| PHX Fires Vogel

[omahen]

I've posted some version of this several times.  People are all the time saying Josh's game is based on confidence.  If that is true, his confidence is based on minutes.  When he gets them, he's a different player.  So much so that his PER 36 numbers are basically worthless.  Below I have split Josh's PER 36 between games where he played 25 minutes or more vs games he played 25 minutes or less.  I picked 25 because his average minutes in these 33 games comes to 31 minutes...the same as Vassell averaged in his 38 games last season.

                Josh PER 36 w>25 Mins       Josh PER 36 w<25 Mins        
PTS           14.4                                   6.83
FGA           10.1                                   4.8
REB            4.2                                    3.2
AST            2.9                                    1.0
FG%          .551                                  .489
3P%          .418                                  .362

He's not the same guy.  When he gets minutes, he puts up shots at double the rate and is more efficient from the field and from distance.  When he gets under 25 minutes, he's the deer in the headlights that so many anchor their opinions to.  The low minutes version of Josh pollutes both his PER 36 numbers and the impression many of us have of what he is.  Josh doesn't need to leap...he needs to replicate what he already does when he plays 25 minutes or more.  He just needs to get those minutes every night.  14/4/3 on fantastic splits with great D is exactly what we want. 

Vassel's PER 36 numbers are better from a scoring standpoint.  He's 21/4/4 but he shoots worse.  His FG% is .439 compared to .551 for Josh.  His 3% is .387 compared to .418 for Josh.  I know, Josh's shooting benefits from playing with better personnel.  But, if you take that position, you have to also say Vassell would never get the same shot attempts here.  He puts up 18 shots per 36.  But if Josh did get 18 shots instead of 10 at a 1.42 PP Shot Attempt, he would be at 25.6 points per game instead of 21.5 for Vassell.  BTW, 1.42 Points Per Shot Attempt for a 22 year old guard?  Are you kidding me?  

BTW, this improvement with more minutes and more shot attempts between low minute Josh and high minute Josh isn't normal.  Most players actually get less efficient as they put up more shots.  He's a gem sitting right in front of us.  I can't believe more people don't see this.

A couple of questions. How many of those +25 minutes are in games without Luka and Kyrie? We all saw he was great as the lead man when stars were out. Definitely looked much different. He will have to learn and get his shots in games with both stars on the court to maximize his potential.

Is it possible his >25 minutes games are when he is playing well and his <25 are when he is not? Did he play less because others had to play or did he play less because he just wasn't particularly impactful in those games? Basically saying, that Green has some good games where he plays a lot and some not so great ones where he doesn't. 

I think answers to these questions really shed the light on who Green really is. We have all watched games and we all saw "passive" Green a lot of times. Green that is just invisible (passive), who doesn't get the ball or even doesn't shoot it always when he could. I don't think you can just take these kind of stats as a proof that Green is great but just needs minutes, without providing the context to why he played less or more. 

I don't think you can simply ignore low number of shots taken and discard it as a consequence of low minutes. We saw and could compare how Hardy plays related to Green. He has zero problems taking his shots even with both stars on the court. Green and Hardy took same amount of shots on average. Green played 25 minutes on average, Hardy played 15 minutes on average. Hardaway played 30 minutes per game and took 12 shots per game, almost twice as much as Green. Green is much closer to guys like Bullock, Dorian or Maxi regarding the number of shots. With the difference, that those guys are really limited in what they can do on the court, know their limits and play within them. Green can do much more than those guys, but there are other reasons why he doesn't take so many shots. I hope he can grow past that and keep his efficiency.

Having guys who are good defenders and can hit an open shot with good efficiency is great. They are worth around MLE. Guys that are paid more are the ones who can do more than just take an open shot here and there. So far, Green only showed flashes he can do more. In order to be worth more, he needs to be consistent. Taking more shots and keeping efficiency. So based on that, Green is worth MLE based on what he showed. In order to get paid more, he needs to show more. One can of course believe, he will be able to overcome whatever barriers he has preventing him to be better. If you believe that, you pay him more. If he reaches his potential, great. If not, you have a bad contract on your hands. 

Or, you can offer max MLE level money. If he doesn't accept the deal, you have the restricted status working for you. If he starts playing like a great two way wing, you can always pay him accordingly. The gamble in this case of course is, that he might take a 15 mil offer now, but gets a 25 mil offer in the summer, while being valued at 20 mil. But somehow, I do prefer this kind of gamble. Personally, I am just not convinced, he can reach a 15+ value valuation.