AROUND the NBA: Pat Bev Suspended 4 Games Next Season| PHX Fires Vogel

[mvossman]

First, yes, it feels like a massive overpay.  The scary thing is Josh wouldn't be that different a player at 15 shots a game.

Here is what Eric Pincus predicted in an article for BR:

"Closest comp: The obvious comp is teammate Keldon Johnson, who extended with the Spurs last summer at $20-$21.5 million (16.2-17.4 percent of the cap). But Johnson's salary descends each year, which could be the kind of structure the team looks for with Vassell (which would be $23-$24.7 million starting salary, based on Johnson's percentages)."

"Expectation: The Spurs and Vassell should find a workable extension, but one that starts at or below $20 million and descends annually."


Keith Smith predicted 5 year for $115mm, so a $23mm average.  Pincus predicts 'north of $13mm" for Josh's extension.  Smith predicts 4 years for $70mm ($17.5mm average).  So, in both cases, Josh is predicted to be less, but to be in the range of 2/3's to 3/4's of what Vassell got.  If that holds in the real world, 2/3's of Vassell is $19mm.  3/4's of Vassell is $22mm.

That's rich for me in an extension.  I have every confidence he'll get that range next summer, but I think he has to take a discount from that in an extension (though Vassell certainly didn't).  I've said the extension range for Josh is $14mm-$16mm.  I'd probably be more surprised at $12mm than I would be at $17.5mm...expecially since both Green and Vassell are CAA clients.  I do think some of this "two rookies might start" thing is a negotiating ploy...just like Stein hearing that Green 'looks really good'.

If thats where we are at, then you don't extend him and tell everyone you will match whatever they offer next offseason and hope for the best.  There is no value to signing him to an extension significantly more than the MLE.