10-02-2023, 05:42 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-02-2023, 06:03 PM by DanSchwartzgan.)
(10-02-2023, 04:27 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: So we agree that this is a massive overpay right...?
When Green averages more than 12ppg for a season we can start to be worried about him crossing more than 20M a year. I don't see what team on this planet will throw 4/100 at Green, even if he has a career year. Even still, the Mavs can match, which they should do under any circumstances.
First, yes, it feels like a massive overpay. The scary thing is Josh wouldn't be that different a player at 15 shots a game.
Here is what Eric Pincus predicted in an article for BR:
"Closest comp: The obvious comp is teammate Keldon Johnson, who extended with the Spurs last summer at $20-$21.5 million (16.2-17.4 percent of the cap). But Johnson's salary descends each year, which could be the kind of structure the team looks for with Vassell (which would be $23-$24.7 million starting salary, based on Johnson's percentages)."
"Expectation: The Spurs and Vassell should find a workable extension, but one that starts at or below $20 million and descends annually."
Keith Smith predicted 5 year for $115mm, so a $23mm average. Pincus predicts 'north of $13mm" for Josh's extension. Smith predicts 4 years for $70mm ($17.5mm average). So, in both cases, Josh is predicted to be less, but to be in the range of 2/3's to 3/4's of what Vassell got. If that holds in the real world, 2/3's of Vassell is $19mm. 3/4's of Vassell is $22mm.
That's rich for me in an extension. I have every confidence he'll get that range next summer, but I think he has to take a discount from that in an extension (though Vassell certainly didn't). I've said the extension range for Josh is $14mm-$16mm. I'd probably be more surprised at $12mm than I would be at $17.5mm...expecially since both Green and Vassell are CAA clients. I do think some of this "two rookies might start" thing is a negotiating ploy...just like Stein hearing that Green 'looks really good'.