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You and I perceive this potential risk differently. Only way Green is getting an offer close to that is if he completely looks like a different player and takes a huge step for this team. One I hope that happens by the way. But even if it does happen then the Mavs just match said deal and move on. He'd obviously be worth it. Should the very (and I believe VERY) unlikely reality that some desperate team throws Green a 4/80 deal next summer after he puts up a season that looked largely like the last 2 then you wrangle a SnT and wish Green good luck.  The new cap rules punishes teams brutally for going over the 2nd cap and the days of overpaying the 4th-8th guys seem to be long gone. 

If a guy like Reaves got 4/54 (after doing more in 1 season than Green has in 3 years) then I can't see how Green gets close to a 70mil offer. I'm going to tentatively submit a 4/55 deal but hope its closer to 4/44.

The Reaves contract is an anomaly and shouldn't be used in comparisons.  He took a discount to make certain he stayed with the Lakers.  Had he been more financially motivated, he would have waited on an offer elsewhere and hoped the Lakers matched it.  He made the unusual decision to prioritize location and fit rather than maximum financial reward.  I believe he would have made at least $20 million per year had he been willing to risk ending up elsewhere.   Living in Dallas and playing for the Mavericks won't have the same appeal to Josh Green.

I think everyone should prepare themselves for Josh Green receiving a contract worth more than $14 million per season.  We'll have to compensate him based upon what we believe he'll become in 2 years rather than what he was last season.  It's obviously a gamble either way.   I would say he was a slightly-above average defensive player last season based upon the advanced stats.  However, his athleticism and defensive energy are outstanding and I think he projects to be an excellent defensive player in two years.

On offense, he was a liability last season.  However, his 3-point percentage of over 40% at 22 years of age is already outstanding.  The flashes of ball-handling and passing are enticing.  I think we'll project that he will continue to improve offensively with age and experience.  His offensive impact should improve and he will likely become an overall decent offensive player.  

An excellent defensive player who shoots 40 % from three and can handle and pass is a very valuable player.  

Grant Williams is two years older than Josh Green and has less room to improve.  He is likely closer to his ceiling than Josh Green is to his.  Not every 22 year old NBA player improves with experience improves but most do.  The Josh Green extension will account for that.  

I hope Josh Green signs an extension for 4-years and $54 million or less.  I think that would give us roster stability and would be a valuable contract.  If I were his agent though, I would demand at least $16 million per year.  Otherwise, I would wait until next summer when there will be a lot more cap space than there was this summer.