02-03-2023, 09:33 AM
(02-02-2023, 08:01 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: Dan, I do disagree with you on Wood's market value. I think he's a starter in terms of the numbers he can put up, and I believe from what I have seen in games that his defensive shortcomings are overstated, particularly with respect to how he has played here. He's slightly below average, not Arvydas Sabonis. I think his market value this summer would be in the $20-$25 mil per year range. I don't think his camp signs any of the in-season extensions - even at 4 years - because they agree with me that his Mavs campaign has resulted in a much higher price tag. If I'm wrong and he signs an extension at any point, that would be a killing for the Mavs, but the Twitter tea leaves suggest they know that isn't happening, whether from their end (which would be abjectly pathetic, tbh) or his.
With the numbers I put out, I'm not ignorantly suggesting they can extend him for that (I know and knew they can't), but rather that they keep him into the summer and make him a reasonable offer. What I'm sniffing is 1) they feel like they can't chance another Brunson, and/or 2) they don't want him at market value. I think the latter is pretty stupid (chirping at the FO, not you), because this team can't afford a drop in talent quotient - which trading Wood now would definitely result in, if a bit less than losing him for nothing.
Edit: I'll go one further. Given the destruction which a Wood trade or loss would cause to the talent quotient, I think that automatically triggers a Luka trade request, whether immediately or down the line. This roster minus Wood is dog doo.
I appreciate your considered response and that you’ve taken a stand. If this gets past the TDL unresolved (either extended or traded), the price tag probably goes up. Charlotte or some other cap space team will be leveraged to get more money. I’m not interested in $100mm Wood. I think that will be a bad contract. But, we may not have a choice given our recent history. That’s what happens when you are in a Bird Rights Trap.
If he’s closer to the $20mm number, he should go ahead and extend (if that is on the table). The $19mm AAV that is available now is close enough. The reason to hold out is the hope for $25mm per. If I’m the agent, I take the $77mm sure thing over $80mm. If I think $104mm is achievable, it gives me pause, but I probably grab the sure thing there also. Bird in hand.
It is a shame that my entire post was reduced to part of one line…MLE or a hair over. Again, I hold the possibility of Wood as a starter. For him to start on a contender, a whole lot would need to change around him…not just swapping out Green for THJ. It is hard to picture a good team doing this. Given the difficulty Houston had moving him and the lack of buzz around teams wanting to trade for him, it is certainly possible he’s not viewed as a starter around the league. It is much easier to envision him as a super-sub on a good team and the pay for that is not $20mm-$25mm. But, if Charlotte or someone like them is hanging out there with cap room, then hanging on past the TDL is problematic. Wood’s per minute production isn’t up that much from his time in Houston and Powell has MUCH better on/off numbers on the same team. So, for all of his scoring acumen, Wood’s contribution to winning is less than Powell’s. Not a good look.