01-22-2023, 05:35 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-22-2023, 05:39 AM by DanSchwartzgan.)
Making financial sense of some trade rumors:
Multiple sauces (including Stein) say THJ to Cleveland is real. Expiring Michigan guy LeVert is supposedly the package, but it feels like there would need to be some sweetener...maybe a second.
Woj has us after both Bojan and Noel. He mentions Bertans and THJ as outgoing. The contracts are interesting here. Both Dallas players carry through the 24/25 season. Bertans is only owed $22mm after this season. Noel has a TO for an additional season. Bojan has what appears to be two years left after this one. But, only $2mm of that final season is guaranteed. So, what might be assumed to be 0 additional years for Noel and 2 additional years for Bojan could be one year each instead.
Combine all of that and you have:
LeVert/Bertans going to Detroit. LeVert expires and Detroit owes Bertans $22mm.
THJ going to Cleveland for two more seasons
Bojan/Noel going to Dallas.
The deal feels like a THJ for Bojan swap and expiring Noel for expensive Bertans. But, what it could be is moving guys with 24/25 money (THJ and Bertans) for guys who are under control until the end of next season. At that point, Dallas would have something close to $60mm in cap room depending on whether they S/W McGee's last year and how much it costs to keep Green. The commitments would be Luka, DFS, Maxi, Green and Hardy. Yeah, I know...Plan Powder.
There are some interesting names in the summer of 24 including Siakam, Jaylen Brown, Sabonis, OG and Dejounte Murray. What is interesting about these guys is their teams are going to have issues retaining them. Siakam is potentially eligible for a Super Max. Extensions for Brown, Sabonis, OG and Murray are capped at 120% of their current contract. So, none of those guys will extend and all will hit Unrestricted Free Agency. They are all 7-10 year guys and their max will be about $43mm. Other prime age UFA's that summer include Bol, Claxton, Vanderbilt, Bamba and Hartenstein.
There is enough money here to get Luka his second star.
Great Dan, but what about between now and then? Well, Dallas cuts 22/23 payroll by almost $7mm and saves a ton of LT...That's exciting! Bojan gives you the same shooting you get from THJ plus some much needed playmaking for a season and a half. Noel is center insurance this summer as we don't know how Wood or Powell will play out. Anything else that happens should be concentrated on adding guys who are still cheap in the summer of 2024.
What about Wood. I don't have a great answer here. Give him the Tyson Chandler treatment (2012) this summer? Can you do a 2 year extension now with a TO on the second? My guess is no, but it is hard to get a feel for his market. Maybe you trade him for someone who expires at the time you want them to expire. Some players with TO's in 23 include Beasley (in rumors with Vanderbilt who would be cheap to control in 2024), Rose (who could be combined with any of several players it would be cheap to control in 2024), Lamar Stevens (who could be part of the LeVert trade) and Isaiah Livers (who could be part of the Detroit outgoing). Fornier has a TO for 2024. Maybe you attach some young talent from NY in a deal involving Fournier. Same with Hayward. Wood/Powell for Hayward and one of their young/inexpensive bigs? The idea isn't that you want the big dollar guy. What you want is the cheap guy to add to DFS, Maxi, Green and Hardy in 2024.
What about draft compensation. I think this is going to cost a pick. If it were me, I'd try to get Cleveland's 2029 second in the LeVert deal. I'd offer a protected Dallas 2028 first that converts to two seconds in 2029. That way, you have 24, 26 and 30 to trade in other deals that get you the other things you need to fill the roster. I know people hate Plan Powder, but there are reasons it might work in 2024 (unless the new CBA fixes the extension restrictions) and it creates a reset on the Repeater Tax.
Multiple sauces (including Stein) say THJ to Cleveland is real. Expiring Michigan guy LeVert is supposedly the package, but it feels like there would need to be some sweetener...maybe a second.
Woj has us after both Bojan and Noel. He mentions Bertans and THJ as outgoing. The contracts are interesting here. Both Dallas players carry through the 24/25 season. Bertans is only owed $22mm after this season. Noel has a TO for an additional season. Bojan has what appears to be two years left after this one. But, only $2mm of that final season is guaranteed. So, what might be assumed to be 0 additional years for Noel and 2 additional years for Bojan could be one year each instead.
Combine all of that and you have:
LeVert/Bertans going to Detroit. LeVert expires and Detroit owes Bertans $22mm.
THJ going to Cleveland for two more seasons
Bojan/Noel going to Dallas.
The deal feels like a THJ for Bojan swap and expiring Noel for expensive Bertans. But, what it could be is moving guys with 24/25 money (THJ and Bertans) for guys who are under control until the end of next season. At that point, Dallas would have something close to $60mm in cap room depending on whether they S/W McGee's last year and how much it costs to keep Green. The commitments would be Luka, DFS, Maxi, Green and Hardy. Yeah, I know...Plan Powder.
There are some interesting names in the summer of 24 including Siakam, Jaylen Brown, Sabonis, OG and Dejounte Murray. What is interesting about these guys is their teams are going to have issues retaining them. Siakam is potentially eligible for a Super Max. Extensions for Brown, Sabonis, OG and Murray are capped at 120% of their current contract. So, none of those guys will extend and all will hit Unrestricted Free Agency. They are all 7-10 year guys and their max will be about $43mm. Other prime age UFA's that summer include Bol, Claxton, Vanderbilt, Bamba and Hartenstein.
There is enough money here to get Luka his second star.
Great Dan, but what about between now and then? Well, Dallas cuts 22/23 payroll by almost $7mm and saves a ton of LT...That's exciting! Bojan gives you the same shooting you get from THJ plus some much needed playmaking for a season and a half. Noel is center insurance this summer as we don't know how Wood or Powell will play out. Anything else that happens should be concentrated on adding guys who are still cheap in the summer of 2024.
What about Wood. I don't have a great answer here. Give him the Tyson Chandler treatment (2012) this summer? Can you do a 2 year extension now with a TO on the second? My guess is no, but it is hard to get a feel for his market. Maybe you trade him for someone who expires at the time you want them to expire. Some players with TO's in 23 include Beasley (in rumors with Vanderbilt who would be cheap to control in 2024), Rose (who could be combined with any of several players it would be cheap to control in 2024), Lamar Stevens (who could be part of the LeVert trade) and Isaiah Livers (who could be part of the Detroit outgoing). Fornier has a TO for 2024. Maybe you attach some young talent from NY in a deal involving Fournier. Same with Hayward. Wood/Powell for Hayward and one of their young/inexpensive bigs? The idea isn't that you want the big dollar guy. What you want is the cheap guy to add to DFS, Maxi, Green and Hardy in 2024.
What about draft compensation. I think this is going to cost a pick. If it were me, I'd try to get Cleveland's 2029 second in the LeVert deal. I'd offer a protected Dallas 2028 first that converts to two seconds in 2029. That way, you have 24, 26 and 30 to trade in other deals that get you the other things you need to fill the roster. I know people hate Plan Powder, but there are reasons it might work in 2024 (unless the new CBA fixes the extension restrictions) and it creates a reset on the Repeater Tax.
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