TDL Archived: The 2nd Rnd Pick Yankee Swap

[DanSchwartzgan]

DanS

1 I went back and checked my numbers and FYI edited into my post on Turner.

2 I understand your point, but I think you are missing mine in your response.
... You keep focusing on how Indy can have MAX cap room for a renegotiation. But, why the max???
... I'm not convinced that $37M starting salary is likely to be his market in the summer. Or even close to it. He's a center, who is a decent but not great rebounder, not a two-way wing who creates offense. 

3 So when you show how Indy can give Turner 37M this season (his max this season) as part of a new deal, I am seriously wondering about their NEED to do that.

.... I'm not saying the answer is Never. But because I don't think he would get anywhere near $37M plus raises in the summer, I think there might be lots of other ways (besides having to pay him 37M this year) to skin the same cat of getting him a deal he would be worth. 
.... Probably part of the analysis is answering what sort of number he might get as a FA. I'm thinking it's WAYYYYY more likely to start with a 2 than a 3.

Sorry if I've not been clear.  I'm not trying to get Turner to $37mm because I think he's worth that or will command that.  I think he's probably mid 20's to upper 20's tops AAV on his next deal.  Earlier you posted all the ways a renegotiate and extend could work out.  One of those included overpaying Turner in 22/23 so that 1. You could use that excess now to lower the value of his future deal and 2. His contract could be declining instead of appreciating over time.  

I'm working under the assumption they will get something done for Turner.  The entire bag of tricks is open to them if they bring in Collins in a way that keeps them enough under the cap that they can add $19mm of space to his existing $18mm salary (thus $37mm) or as close to it as possible.  If the goal is to make both Turner and Collins work, then it probably isn't one then the other.  It is probably knowing how to get to both before you do either.  I'm simply trying to look forward to a deal that keeps all avenues open with Turner while simultaneously negotiating with teams regarding Collins.