TDL Archived: The 2nd Rnd Pick Yankee Swap

[F Gump]

Reading tea leaves...

I think the THJ to Cleveland talk is real.  Let's call it LeVert plus a second.  But, LeVert doesn't really do us much good longer term.  So, it (probably/hopefully) requires a third team.

I think Collins ends up in Indy.  BTW, that is a pretty nice remake in a short amount of time...Turner/Collins/Hield/Mathuran/Halliburton.

Indy has extra late firsts this offseason.  They can eat all of the Collins money and still be a hair under the cap.  HOWEVER, part of the strategy of bringing in Collins to play PF would be to do a 'Renegotiate and Extend' with Turner.  So, they need to send enough outgoing money to get that deal done.  For instance, if they send out $10mm in a Collins deal, they can use the cap room to renegotiate Turner to $28mm this season and extend based on that number.  I have no idea what Turner is asking for, but I'm going to assume sending out $10mm in the Collins deal gets you in the neighborhood.


I could see Atlanta ending up with LeVert-plus in a deal for Collins.  LeVert wipes the salary off the books for the new front office team.  They need something that looks and smells like an asset to sell to their fans.  Indy has draft capital...18, 24 (Cleveland), 30 (Boston) and 31 (Houston 2nd).  There is also some willingness to move on from Duarte...maybe he is the developmental guy who is still there after LeVert expires and you add some of the Indy draft capital.

So, I've got THJ to Cleveland, LeVert/Duarte and a pick from Indy and the Cleveland second to Atlanta and Collins to Indy.

The Collins to Indy part is obvious and the THJ to Cleveland part is rumored.  The question is what does Dallas get for THJ and what else does Indy send out to get the Turner money right?  To me, the benefit of moving THJ is opening up PT for Green and Hardy.  So, it probably needs to be PG's and Big's as the incoming.

I like your creativity.

Doing a Turner renegotiation-and-extend would definitely factor into a Collins-to-Indy deal which uses Indy cap room. But that Turner situation can go into so many different results - it can become a huge raise with a declining year-over-year, a not as big raise with an increasing year-over-year, or it could even end as a decision to (try to) sign him in the summer instead. Or, it could lead to Turner saying no to everything, and then getting traded (although, while an extend-and-trade is allowed, he can't be traded with an extension that starts with a renegotiation). Or maybe Indy lands on a decision to try to sign-and-trade him in the summer (using Bird rights and hoping for multiple suitors) and get value that way.

My point is, as complex as the Turner situation is, I think that decision is what happens FIRST for Indy. That then defines how much cap room they might have left for a Collins pursuit, and impacts how that might look. But until Turner decision is in their past, I don't think they will want to use a giant chunk of cap room for a Collins deal, lest it make the Turner situation even harder to navigate.

All of that impacts what a team might be able to extract from the Pacers, having a feel for what they are trying to do overall.

Unfortunately, if the Mavs want to get a really good deal out of this, I think the Indy situation is several layers too complex for Cuban to negotiate successfully.